The Breeders’ Cup is so well-timed to distract me from important work every year. After several weeks of almost nothing to do, it always comes along at a point when I’m as busy as possible.
Between work and my classes at Columbia, I wouldn’t have had enough time to release Paddy’s Picks analysis for the Breeders’ Cup this year. Fortunately, I did most of my analysis ahead of time, and the West Coast event gave me a few extra hours this morning to sleep before finalizing this copy.
Though the Belmont Stakes holds a special place in my heart, this two-day, 14-race event is like almost nothing else in any sport. I love that I created this website more than three years ago so that I could experience it alongside you folks every year.
Even as I begin to write about horse racing in a professional capacity, it’s very nice to come back here now and then and publish work for people that have supported me for as long as I’ve known them. Thank you.
Let’s take a look at this Friday card, featuring five stacked juvenile races. I will provide full analysis for each, going horse by horse in order of post position.
Santa Anita, Race 5
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G1) for Two-Year-Olds, 5 ½ Furlongs on the Turf
Post Time: 5:00 p.m. ET
1- Crimson Advocate
It’s rare for an American to make any noise on the European turf, but this George Weaver trainee made a huge splash to win the G2 Queen Mary at Ascot. She hasn’t raced since, which could be seen as both concerning or promising. It’s likely that he’s matured physically during the layoff but it’s not often preferable for horses to take so much time off before the Breeders’ Cup. She has the talent, though she hasn’t faced the boys yet.
2- No Nay Mets (IRE)
This George Weaver trainee has a lot going for him after four career starts. It’s surprising that he hasn’t yet tried a graded stakes in the U.S. yet, but Weaver’s decision to ship him to Ascot in June demonstrates enough about his potential class. He finished ninth in the Norfolk Stakes overseas, but in three ungraded tries stateside, he has overpowered lesser fields with his impressive early speed. If he can get out of the gate in California, he could be the one to catch.
3- Tiger Belle (Ire)
I’m not sure how strong the Marwell Stakes and G3 Prix d’Arenberg are overseas, but what’s certain is that this filly has put the pieces together in her recent starts. No-turn sprints are often a detriment to European runners preparing to ship to the United States but she’s displayed nice speed in her last two starts and figures as a solid outsider.
4- Big Evs (Ire)
Barring a dud in the G1 Nunthorpe at York, this colt has been exceptional all summer, racking up three stakes wins around Great Britain. It’s fortunate that he got another race after finishing 14th in late August, because his showing in the G2 Flying Childers settled all doubts about his condition. It was arguably his best race to date, one in which he rocketed to the lead and never looked back in a commanding turf win. He’s a legitimate contender and may earn favoritism.
5- Givemethebeatboys (Ire) (SCRATCHED)
6- Starlust (GB)
His form is a little muddy and there’s almost no class edge to speak of. It also doesn’t help that two of his three wins have come on synthetic surfaces. But there is a little more here. Those two synthetic wins also came around one turn, an experience edge for this colt over most of his European counterparts. His win in the G3 Mission Sirenia Stakes at least puts him on the map for a race like this, though it would’ve been nice to see a little more in the G1 Middle Park late last month. He seems a step slow at the end of the day, but the price will be right and this California turf could suit him.
7- Shards
This colt made his stakes debut last time out in the Indian Summer at Keeneland, and if not for traffic in the stretch, he very well could have won the race. It’s great to see horses willing to make moves in between competitors at a young age, and this Kelsey Danner trainee came flying to finish third by about a half length. It’s unclear how strong that stakes race really was and there’s little else to go on to evaluate his potential, but he did improve significantly to contend in that spot. He could improve again after a trip to the West Coast.
8- Cherry Blossom (Ire)
This filly is stepping up in class faster than she’s developing physically, an encouraging sign if you believe in trainer Aidan O’Brien’s eye for talent. She has raced against males twice and handled herself well, but her most recent start in the G1 Cheveley Park could have been a little sharper. She hasn’t taken that next step forward, instead running back to her form over the summer, but she’s here for a reason.
9- Amidst Waves
When did George Weaver get all these turf sprinters in his barn? This filly may not take as much money as stablemates No Nay Mets and Crimson Advocate, but she’s coming along nicely in her own right. After a pair nice wins in ungraded stakes races, she tried the boys for the first time in the Indian Summer and fought to the wire in a losing photo finish. She improved in that performance, an encouraging sign that she is willing to rise to a challenge. Some horses just like to win and this one has shown some heart several times now in stretch duels. Don’t be shocked.
10- Valiant Force
This Irish-based two-year-old made headlines early in the summer when he won the G2 Norfolk Stakes at 150-1 odds at Royal Ascot. It was a nice win seemingly aided by favorable track position, but beyond that, the colt hasn’t really shown much in three other stakes starts. He struggled in the G1 Prix Morny in August and would probably have to improve in his first attempt around a turn.
11- Slider
John Sadler doesn’t typically pack as much early speed into his juveniles as other California trainers, but this colt has demonstrated very nice tactical speed and a willingness to fight for the lead in three career starts. After a maiden win on dirt in early September, he made his turf debut in the Speakeasy Stakes at Santa Anita and never seemed to be in danger despite drifting. It’s nice to get a win over this famously eccentric California turf course going into the Breeders’ Cup, though this juvenile is coming along a little fast.
12- Committee of One
This Steve Asmussen trainee entered the Indian Summer Stakes at Keeneland as a maiden, having finished second in both of his career starts. He was worth the hype, however, as he came charging to win in a tight three-horse photo finish. Of the trio, which also included fellow runners Amidst Waves and Shards, I thought he got the best trip down the center of the track. This is technically a knock, though the horse is so inexperienced that he may just mature past the point where trip handicapping matters. The far outside post could hurt in any case.
14- Asean (Ire)
This also-eligible sneaks into the race with a scratch, but it’ll be tough sledding from the far outside post. After a pair of ungraded stakes wins in Ireland, she got smoked in the G3 Cornwallis at 22-1 odds. She’ll have to improve as a long shot here.
Order: 1 4 2 7
I’ll take the filly. Crimson Advocate is coming off a very scary layoff, but I’m choosing to see that as an advantage for a horse that was so promising early in the summer. With some time off after her trip overseas, I believe I can expect a big performance here. Big Evs (Ire) is clearly a special horse and could easily win this race, but a closer look at his form suggests he may prefer the turf a little softer. Santa Anita could pose a few problems. No Nay Mets (Ire) is a little short on class, a curious choice by George Weaver to keep him out of bigger races. He still has plenty of upside, however, and the trainer’s choice to send him to England was encouraging. Shards is an excellent upset candidate coming off a rough trip in the Indian Summer at Keeneland. I believe he could have won that race with a cleaner trip and expect him to make a better run here.
Santa Anita, Race 6
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) for Two-Year-Old Fillies, 1 1/16 Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 5:40 p.m. ET
1- Candied
She’s hard not to like after a commanding win in the G1 Alcibiades. Watching the replay, I don’t believe she switched leads in the stretch, but a commanding four-wide move around the turn was more than enough to put away most of the field. She definitely has some learning to do with just two career starts under her belt, but the Todd Pletcher trainee has shown a lot of promise and seems prepared for this.
2- Jody’s Pride
She’s kicked some ass in two career starts, including the Matron Stakes, but the light speed figures are just the beginning to understanding why she’ll be up against it here. She might have crushed both fields she’s faced thus far, but those two races were both originally scheduled for turf. They were also sprints, which don’t necessarily help her much as she prepares for this route distance against the best juvenile fillies in the country. I’d stay away.
3- Scalable
Todd Pletcher took a big chance with this filly, entering her in the G2 Chandelier in Santa Anita after a poor effort in maiden competition at Saratoga. She did improve to finish second in her Stakes debut, though she benefited from a rail trip and never seriously challenged for the win. Her highly competent trainer clearly has some confidence, but she remains a maiden running in the Breeders’ Cup. Mike Smith leaves to ride Tamara.
4- Where’s My Ring
Remember all that talk about maidens? This winless filly lost two photo finishes in dirt sprints on the West Coast and tried the turf in her stakes debut last time out. She finished fourth in the G3 Surfer Girl, showing more than many expected of her at 30-1 odds, and that race was a mile, which at least gives her some route experience. There could be some sneaky improvement here and she gets to stay at her home track, but she’s extremely hard to trust in this field.
5- Omaha Girl
This filly’s speed figures are extremely light, and the only legitimate field she has faced in three career starts came in the Colleen, a turf stakes at Monmouth. She got clocked in that race and switched back to dirt, where she remains undefeated in two starts, but this is a big step up.
6- Chatalas
This filly fought well to lead wire to wire in the G2 Chandelier last time out, but I have serious questions about the strength of that field. It’s nice that she seemed to improve on the Santa Anita dirt, giving her some standing as she steps up to a lofty spot here. I just question if she’s ready for this lot.
7- Tamara
If she can handle the distance, she’ll be pretty tough. Her win in the G1 Del Mar Debutante last month was dominant, a nearly seven-length romp in which she earned a 91 BSF. That race was at seven furlongs and was also her second start ever, so there are knocks on the very short price. On talent alone though, she may overmatch them.
8- Espirit Enchante
This beautifully named Peter Miller filly made a nice showing at Santa Anita last time out to break her maiden in a photo finish. She defeated fellow runner Where’s My Ring in that start, which at least suggests that the maiden field was strong. It’s always good to get a stakes start, however, before attempting to take down a Breeders’ Cup field. Mike Smith leaves to ride Tamara.
9- Brightwork
This filly was pre-entered in the Juvenile Turf Sprint and Juvenile Fillies, but I don’t know if she’s best suited to either. She rattled off four straight wins over the summer, including two graded stakes races at Saratoga, to begin her career despite never being the favorite in any of them. In her first attempt around two turns in the G1 Alcibiades, she came up flat and finished fifth, explaining why she might have wanted to cut back in the turf sprint. She’s undeniably a talented horse, but I have to wonder if trainer John Ortiz is struggling to find the right spot for her.
10- Accommodate Eva
After two poor showings in restricted maiden races, this filly finally put the pieces together at Keeneland to win in easy fashion. She’s taking a massive step up in class and will be a long shot. Luis Saez leaves to ride Candied.
11- Life Talk
It might’ve just been the wet track, but this filly really seemed to struggled in the G1 Frizette at Aqueduct last time out. Based on her maiden win at a mile at Saratoga, I’m willing to give her a pass for that showing, and it seems like Irad Ortiz will stand by her as well. Even without that start though, she seems a little overmatched against some in this field and will have to improve.
12- Just F Y I
When fellow runner Life Talk came up flat in the G1 Frizette, this filly was the main beneficiary, as she had no company in the stretch after working out a nice trip. She doesn’t match up particularly well to the very best in this field on paper and the win on the slop doesn’t say much about her ability on the California dirt. But if the price is right, the Bill Mott trainee could turn some heads.
13- Alys Beach (SCRATCHED)
Order: 1 7 11 9
This field isn’t very good. It comes down to two horses for me, and Candied made the sort of move I adore to win the G1 Alcibiades last time out. She has to be the pick, though I doubt I’ll get 4-1. Tamara figures as an insanely short price with a 91 BSF at Del Mar, but distance for these California runners sometimes prove to be an issue. I wouldn’t be surprised if she came home to score, but I feel like I have a strong alternative. Life Talk and Brightwork are strictly exotic plays for me in a field full of runners with outside chances. Life Talk might have some hidden form that makes her interesting and Brightwork has run extremely well at shorter distances, giving both of them a little upside.
Santa Anita, Race 7
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) for Two-Year-Old Fillies, 1 Mile on the Turf
Post Time: 6:20 p.m. ET
1- Buttercream Babe
She handled the route distance well enough in the G3 Surfer Girl, where she finished second in a photo. The jockey on her that day also alleged interference, though a steward’s inquiry did not ultimately result in a DQ. In any case, the speed figures coming out of that race don’t match up well and she seemed to be traveling with the help of a speed bias. Luis Saez is an interesting pickup but he’s likely just looking for a mount.
2- Flattery
This filly is coming out of the same G3 Surfer Girl, though she never seriously challenged for the lead while chasing the leaders around the track. She may deserve an excuse for that, as she likely struggled to make up ground because of a bias at Del Mar. She’s run solidly at lower levels, winning an ungraded stakes at this distance, but needs to step up here.
3- Buchu
It’s safe to say that this Philip Bauer trainee has put the pieces together since officially switching to turf in August. After breaking her maiden at Churchill Downs in September, she made a monster rally from last to win the G2 Jessamine at Keeneland by daylight. It’s hard to poke holes in such a performance, but the 80 BSF was likely aided significantly by favorable track conditions and a sharp early pace. The extra sixteenth of a mile likely helped as well, and as she cuts back to a mile to face a field lacking some pace, I worry that she won’t get the same trip.
4- Laulne (Fr)
Maybe this French runner is in the U.S. to stay, having transferred to Phil D’Amato’s barn ahead of the Breeders’ Cup. In the G2 Prix du Calvados at Deauville in August, she was no match for fellow runner Les Pavots at seven furlongs. Cutting back to six next time out, she took a nice step forward to finish second in the G3 Prix Eclipse. It’s encouraging that she has won both of her starts handling a turn, but she still hasn’t been tested at a mile and early attempts to stretch her out have yielded mixed results.
5- Content (Ire)
After four losses in her first five career starts, it’s a little hard to explain this filly’s most recent win in the G3 Staffordstown Stud. What’s certain is that she was having fun in her route debut, dusting off a respectable field at 20-1 odds. She looks very skinny in replays, and I want to say that she might not travel well but don’t know nearly enough about equine care to stand by such a claim. She’ll have to improve again in a very new place to have a chance here, though I hesitate to say that she doesn’t belong.
6- Porta Fortuna (Ire)
This feels like a race that will go to the Europeans, and the odds suggest that this filly is the cream of the crop. It’s easy to see why after watching her win in the G1 Cheveley Park, where she powered home against a field featuring several runners pre-entered in the BC Juvenile Sprint. There’s a problem there though, as that big performance came at six furlongs, where she has earned three of four career victories. In her one attempt at seven furlongs, she faded in the G1 Moyglare Stud to a distant third. Now she’ll take a lot of money in the Breeders’ Cup trying a mile for the first time. I have questions.
7- Gala Brand
There’s something to be said for consistency, as this Bill Mott filly has now earned three straight 71 BSFs to begin her career. In her maiden and the G3 With Anticipation (against the boys), that was enough to earn her a solid closing win. It didn’t get the job done in the G2 Miss Grillo, however, as she made her trademark late kick and simply never got involved in the stretch. With a little more pace, she could have more of a say in a race like this. But the cutback in distance will hurt her and there don’t seem to be too many speedballs to consider.
8- Life’s an Audible
Todd Pletcher had this filly ready to go in the G2 Miss Grillo, as she stretched out dramatically in distance to finish second in a solid stalking effort. That being said, with the trip she managed to find behind the leaders, one might argue she could have done a little more and won the race. I can be a little forgiving because of her lack of seasoning, but the waters only get deeper here. She’s interesting as an exotic play based on natural progression.
9- Carla’s Way (Ire)
Fellow runner Porta Fortuna blew her doors off in the G3 Albany back in June, but I think we’re dealing with a different filly now. In her most recent start at Newmarket in the G2 Rockfel, this filly was extremely impressive pulling away from five other rivals and cruising home to a two-length win. That smaller field is probably much weaker than this group, but with experience around a turn and a proven affinity for seven furlongs, it’s much easier to support her at a mile this time around. I’m interested.
10- Austere
Stakes races at Kentucky Downs always look like such a mess in replays, but the fact remains that this filly has won easily in two career starts, both of which came at route distances. Her win in the ungraded Juvenile Fillies Stakes was a vast improvement over her maiden breaker, with the 78 BSF matching up fairly well to other Americans. I still worry if she’s ready for this, however.
11- She Feels Pretty
This filly took some time off over the summer and shipped up to Canada for the second start of her career. In the G1 Natalia at Woodbine, she improved dramatically to win going away with an 85 BSF. The track conditions set up nicely for her that day and none of the other horses from that field are trying to make this move to California. She did crush that field, however, so while I don’t always love using Woodbine for Breeders’ Cup preps, she may simply be running too well to ignore completely.
12- Hard to Justify
Chad Brown had a really tough time at the Breeders’ Cup, but that alone shouldn’t rule out any of his runners out of hand. This filly came back off a short layoff to win the G2 Miss Grillo, stalking an early leader through soft fractions and holding off fellow runner Life’s An Audible in the stretch. The 80 BSF puts her in contention for a win here, but I may prefer her as an exotic play.
13- Dreamfyre
She’s undefeated in three career starts, though that includes two sprints on dirt. In her turf debut last time out, she managed to use her early speed well while stretching out on a new surface, winning the G3 Surfer Girl over fellow runners Buttercream Babe and Flattery. She clearly has the advantage of being familiar with this Santa Anita turf, but I’d have to imagine that horses will be able to adjust well enough on the fly. The speed figures she earned in both her dirt starts were significantly sharper than the 69 BSF she earned on grass.
14- Les Pavots (Ire)
After two solid wins at seven furlongs, this Irish filly tried a mile in the G1 Prix Marcel Boussac and couldn’t keep up in third. That being said, her Timeform rating suggests she improved, so the class hike may have been more responsible for the regression. The far outside post is a killer for her, but on talent, she fits right in.
Order: 9 6 5 11
I like the Europeans here. Carla’s Way (Ire) seems like the most prepared of the bunch coming off a nice win in the G2 Rockfel. Porta Fortuna (Ire) is coming in with more hype and for good reason, as her win in the G1 Cheveley Park was very impressive. I just have questions about the distance with her, though I don’t doubt her ability to make a nice showing. Content (Ire) is clearly a step below by top pair on paper, but Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore are a tough combination to go against and they’ve stuck by this horse through a lot of adversity. She Feels Pretty is coming off a nice effort in Canada that likely gives her an edge over other Americans in this field.
Santa Anita, Race 8
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) for Two-Year-Olds, 1 1/16 Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
1- The Wine Steward (SCRATCHED)
After three short-distance wins on the East Coast, this Michael Maker colt jumped into the deep end in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland. Luis Saez guided him through a tight gap on the inside, putting him in an excellent position at the top of the stretch. Fellow runner Locked proved to be a bit too much in the end, but he gave that foe everything he could handle in a nice stretch run. Consider him as an exotic play with a 92 BSF in the bank at this distance.
2- Prince of Monaco
Bob Baffert always has a few ready to go in this race, and based on his G3 Best Pal performance alone, he would figure as a favorite in this race with a 103 BSF. Stretching out to seven furlongs in the G1 Del Mar Futurity, however, he regressed back to an 87 BSF and won a much closer stretch duel. It has happened before that Baffert has entered a sprinter in the Juvenile in the hopes of his speed carrying him a little further. It has opened up for more professional runners to come through at better odds, namely Essential Quality and Forte in recent years. Let’s go against this one and see what happens.
3- Wine Me Up
Unlike his stablemate to the inside, this Bob Baffert runner has a start at this distance, though he only has two career starts. The problem is that he was bested by fellow runner Muth, yet another Baffert runner we’ll get into later. He figures as the likely speed of this race and could improve with another month of development, but I can only bet so many Baffert horses.
4- Timberlake
He’s sure to inspire hope after an excellent G1 Champagne win in which he never appeared challenged in the stretch. Earning a 93 BSF there is sure to turn some heads as well, though I have to wonder if the sloppy track was a factor. A dominant maiden win at Ellis Park lifts my spirits a little, but in reality, his only legitimate start on a fast track so far came in the G1 Hopeful, where he appeared to struggle and lost to a supposedly inferior rival. The price might be too short.
5- Ecoro Neo (SCRATCHED)
For those of you unfamiliar with Andy Beyer’s “logic of the illogic” principle, this Japanese maiden fits the bill. On paper, not only is there absolutely no reason to suspect that he can win this race, but there’s not even any reason to suspect him in a stakes race in Japan. He’s run twice against maiden fields, once in a blowout loss going long on the turf and then coming up just short to take place in a dirt sprint. So what’s he doing here? Did well-regarded trainer Hideyuki Mori simply have an extra spot on the plane? I suppose I’ll have to spend $2 to find out.
6- Locked
Unlike some in this field, this colt earned a huge figure in his maiden win and backed it up in his stakes debut. Despite traveling wide in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity and sparring a little with fellow runner The Wine Steward to his inside, he seemed to win at the end with condescending ease. He seems like one of two very serious contenders, and my East Coast bias will probably bring me back to him.
7- Cuban Thunder (Ire)
I love when Europeans try the dirt in these Breeders’ Cup races, but this one wasn’t exactly lighting the world on fire over there. With just a maiden win in six career starts and some really bad stakes losses, it’s bold to try him on the dirt at this level. Great name though.
8- General Partner
After a speedy maiden win at Saratoga in September, this colt regressed in the slop next time out, losing to fellow runner Timberlake in the G1 Champagne. I’m willing to give him an excuse for that one, and if that race isn’t considered, this colt actually has some interesting value. It would have been nice to get less early speed in the field, however, as this one seems most comfortable firing out of the gate.
9- Fierceness
He’s a tricky fella. Without any racing experience on fast tracks, bettors will only have two off-track races to go on here. The first was a dominant maiden win at Saratoga where he never saw another horse in an 11-length win. The other was an atrocious showing in the G1 Champagne, where he finished as a well-beaten favorite in seventh. It’s harder to excuse him for that race, though he never seemed all that comfortable and had no chance at the lead against fellow runner General Partner. He would have to show more versatility for me to support him here, and it’s hard to demonstrate that in two career starts.
10- Muth
He’s probably Baffert’s strongest route runner in this field on paper, as he managed to successfully stretch out and win the G1 American Pharoah with a 91 BSF. He received a picture-perfect trip that day and now he’ll have to deal with an outside post. But it’s very important that he demonstrated a willingness to sit off the pace in that prep, a skill that will suit him well against this field. He’s dangerous.
11- Noted
He’s only made one start on dirt in four career outings, but it was also his best race to date. That’s not much to say in context, however, as the 77 BSF he earned winning the ungraded Sapling at Monmouth doesn’t stack up well against others here. It’s interesting that Todd Pletcher has shifted Irad Ortiz off Fierceness to ride this one on the far outside, but there’s little else to go on.
Order: 6 10 2 5 (UPDATE: The 5, Ecoro Neo, is scratched. Saves me $2.)
Forte beat Cave Rock and National Treasure last year, so I feel fairly confident taking Pletcher again. Locked ran even better than it appears on paper to win the G1 Breeders’ Futurity. I’m very interested. Muth and Prince of Monaco are going to form a formidable Baffert duo and both have shown excellent form on the West Coast. Muth is better prepared, however, giving him an edge in my mind. Ecoro Neo shouldn’t be here and it’s scaring me.
Santa Anita, Race 9
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) for Two-Year-Olds, 1 Mile on the Turf
Post Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
1- Air Recruit
This colt beat up on a weak field to win the Laurel Futurity last time out, earning a 67 BSF in the process. Against the other Americans here, that’s actually not too far off, but he will still need to improve to have any chance.
2- River Tiber (Ire) (SCRATCHED)
It’s curious that this colt isn’t trying the Juvenile Sprint instead, as he has not yet traveled further than six furlongs in five career starts. There’s little to knock about his record, however, as he earned three nice wins to begin his career before entering G1 competition later in the summer. He lost both of those tries to the extremely talented Vandeek, which may explain why trainer Aidan O’Brien is trying him at route distances. I wouldn’t be surprised if the move is successful.
3- Tok Tok
It’s a good thing Graham Motion has such a strong relationship with jockey John Velasquez, because many trainers would have looked for different jockeys after this colt’s last race. With plenty left going into the stretch in the G2 Bourbon, he was completely pinned to the rail with absolutely nowhere to go. With 200 yards remaining, he swerved through traffic with a full head of steam, was impeded again and finally squeezed through to nab fifth while still moving forward. Though it was a losing effort, it was a vast improvement on anything else he’s ever done. He may just be overmatched here, but he’s also a strong candidate for improvement at a price.
4- Can Group
This colt won the G2 Bourbon over fellow runner Tok Tok and a slew of other horses, and the photo win in a blanket finish earned him a spot in this race. The stakes race was only his second turf start and he improved nicely to win it off a maiden win, but based on the trip he received, it’s hard for me to imagine him taking another step forward.
5- My Boy Prince
It’s a shame that the Breeders’ Cup doesn’t run on synthetic tracks nowadays, as this colt clearly has a surface preference. Though he’s been handy on turf in his two most recent starts, he was running on another level on Woodbine’s synthetic earlier in the summer. He’s still proven capable on turf, earning a place finish in the G1 Summer, and his front-running style should come in handy. It’s just a little hard to support him fully knowing that he likely prefers doing something else.
6- Stay Hot
This ridgling broke his maiden on the Santa Anita turf last month, earning a 77 BSF. Big step up here, but the speed figure is almost there and he clearly likes the course. Take him at a price if you like him.
7- Agate Road
This colt made a nice statement winning a stampede in the G2 Pilgrim over two runners in this field. I wonder how effective his late-running style will be on this harder California turf, and that doubt isn’t helped much by the ever popular combo of Todd Pletcher and Irad Ortiz. He seems like one of the pack in a relatively weak group of Americans.
8- Unquestionable (Fr)
I love the way that this colt was prepared for this start. After showing flashes at six furlongs over the summer, trainer Aidan O’Brien stretched him out to seven around a turn in the G1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere. He seemed to relish the extra furlong, delivering a career-best performance to finish second despite encountering some trouble. It’s concerning that Aidan O’Brien put Ryan Moore on River Tiber, but in my opinion, this colt is ready. (UPDATE: River Tiber has been scratched and Ryan Moore will now ride this one.)
9- Endlessly
I don’t know if I’ve ever seen this, but this colt has won all three of his starts so far by exactly 2 ¼ lengths. All three races were at a mile, though his win at Santa Anita in the G3 Zuma Beach last time out was his strongest on paper. Between the early success and the track familiarity, he’s probably the most interesting American in the field.
10- Fulmineo
It’s hard to draw a line between the runners coming out of the G2 Pilgrim, as they all ran similar trips and earned underwhelming speed figures. This one gets a small excuse after getting jostled a little near the finish, but there’s not enough to like. Flavien Prat leaves to ride Can Group.
11- Liam’s Journey (SCRATCHED)
12- Mountain Bear (Ire)
This colt is clearly the weakest of Aidan O’Brien’s runners in this race, with his only stakes win coming last time out on a synthetic track. At lower turf levels that his stablemates have more or less passed already, he seems a little stuck and has not taken an appreciable step forward.
13- Grand Mo The First (SCRATCHED)
14- Carson’s Run
The far outside post is an absolute killer for an interesting colt like this one. After a tough loss to filly Gala Brand in the G3 With Anticipation, Christophe Clement decided to switch things up and shipped him to Woodbine for the G1 Summer. Coming from well off the pace and extremely wide down the center of the track, he defeated fellow runner My Boy Prince and the rest of that Canadian field by open lengths. Of the American closers, he’s probably my favorite, and his preferred running style might just negate his post out here.
Order: 8 2 9 14 (UPDATE: The 2, River Tiber, is scratched. Ryan Moore will now ride Unquestionable, giving me profound confidence in my pick.)
Unquestionable (Fr) and River Tiber (Ire) are very difficult to draw a line between, though I fear that Ryan Moore may be making the decision for me. Still, I believe the former runner has been prepared slightly better for this race, while the latter still has to prove he can handle these conditions. Endlessly is the strongest of the American contingent in this race, as his consistency and success at Santa Anita give him a distinct advantage. Carson’s Run could make a lot of noise on the far outside, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he beat me in a charge down the center.