My venerated pony blog has been on hiatus for some time. There’s an excellent reason for that. An article in the coming weeks or months will more clearly catch up readers, and it will be an emotional chance for me to express gratitude to a massive group of people.
This is not that article, but it is a reintroduction. In 2020, the Whitney was the first Paddy’s Picks article to include guests, when Niko Konstantellis and Lucas Ludgate contributed guest analysis and kickstarted a longstanding tradition for the site.
This year’s Grade 1 Whitney Stakes has a chance to be the race of the year, at least until Forever Young rolls back into town this fall. It is the sort of race I used to share with my friends, gathering their thoughts and giving them a platform to learn and enjoy something new. I miss that, and a few of them have said they miss it too. So we’re back, whenever the occasion is right and I can spare the time.
For this year’s Whitney, I assigned eight of my most prolific guests to a horse in the field, tasking them with making a case for that runner. Some have received an easy task; others have been burdened with an uphill battle. Some required small essays to put their full thought processes on display; Maddie Sandholm streamlined their analysis to a pun and then pointed out the pun.
It is a format that should be distantly familiar to once-regular readers, and everyone’s styles are more or less as they have been. Everyone’s shaking off the rust though, including me. It’s time to get back up to speed.
Saratoga, Race 12
Whitney Stakes (G1) for 3-Year-Olds and Up, 1 1/8 Miles
1- Magnitude
Analysis by: Lucas Ludgate
True or false: When picking winners, you want to pick a horse that wins. That’s Magnitude. He’s won his last four races, including every race since Jose Ortiz got back in the saddle. Also of note, Jose Ortiz elected to ride Magnitude in this race over Nitrogen.
Nitrogen is a formidable competitor but lacked the gumption to run against Magnitude in the Stephen Foster Stakes. Clearly he could sense the cowardice. Magnitude also bested his leading foes, Baeza and Sovereignty, in this same race.
History repeats itself. Go with the champ. Go with Magnitude.
Catching up on Lucas Ludgate: Lucas, once a Houston resident, now lives in the vicinity of Chicago and studies at Northwestern. He regularly invites me to Illinois, and I have regularly been unavailable. This has not sat well with him. While in Houston, he brought me to Yo-Yo’s Hot Dog Cart, which remains one of the most formative dining experiences of my life.
2- Nitrogen
Analysis by: George McKnight
Hi all, it’s been quite some time. Since my last submission, the Knicks have become NBA champions, Mayo has won an All-Ireland, and I have read five books. It just goes to show you that anything can happen in this crazy world.
I have missed Paddy’s Picks dearly, but the idea of Patrick living his dream of writing for the DRF has allowed me greater patience in waiting for my next chance to spew rambling, disjointed, and fundamentally incorrect horse racing takes with unparalleled confidence. Reader beware — I may sound like I know what I’m talking about, but if I’m ever at the track and I’ve had my third beer, I’m more likely to get kicked by a horse than win any bets on one. But I digress.
I am assigned to make a case for Nitrogen, a 4-year-old filly owned by D J Stable and trained by Mark Casse, to win the G1 Whitney Stakes at Saratoga this Saturday. Casse is known for his success at Woodbine and has seen recent wins from Wonder Gadot in Canadian stakes races and War of Will in the Preakness in 2019. A Hall of Famer in Canada, Casse definitely knows what he’s doing — he’s a winning trainer with a proven reputation in the States as well.
Nitrogen has a solid sire — Medaglia d’Oro won some notable stakes races, including the Travers in ’02 and the Whitney in ‘03, with a couple of respectable finishes in the Breeders’ Cup and Belmont Stakes. Nitrogen has success at Saratoga, and especially in the Whitney, in her blood, definitely something to keep in mind.
Now, let’s focus on Nitrogen’s performances in her career thus far. She started off as a 2-year-old on turf but has quickly excelled on dirt over the past two years, most notably enjoying a resounding win two months ago in the Ogden Phipps Stakes at Saratoga. Setting a speed record for the 1 1/8-mile distance, Nitrogen won by a whopping 12 3/4 lengths, never relinquishing the lead she gained out of the gate. She boasts a blistering combination of speed and strength from the stretch, pulling ahead by nearly six lengths from that point in the Ogden Phipps.
Nitrogen also shows a historical ability to maintain speed at even longer distances, as evidenced by her gritty win in the 1 1/4-mile Alabama Stakes at Saratoga last year, in which she gained the lead at the second call and did not lose it. Couple that with some nice G1 finishes at Keeneland, Del Mar, and Oaklawn, and you’ve got an elite front-runner filly that can not only hang with the boys but also command a lead early and leave them in the dust.
My only hesitation here is that she will have to adjust to a new jockey, as her go-to, Jose Ortiz, will instead be riding Magnitude in the Whitney this Saturday. Nitrogen will have to form a quick bond with John Velazquez, who is a great jockey in his own right, but it will certainly be an adjustment.
Summarily, Nitrogen’s got a strong pedigree, resounding past success on Saratoga’s dirt track, and a profound front-running ability. This Saturday, if Velazquez can urge her to establish a solid position out of the middle, I have no doubt that she will lead at every call. 4-1 is fantastic value here – and who wouldn’t want to see a filly win the Whitney for the first time in 40 years? It’d be yet another curse broken this year.
Thanks for reading – let’s hope this means more Paddy’s Picks in the near future. Good luck, all.
Catching up on George McKnight: George, as many predicted, still resides in Queens and stacks paper to the ceiling for a living. He finished last in our fantasy football league last year and refuses to wear a fedora as punishment. He is still most well known as the boyfriend of future lawyer Alex Voorhis, with whom he just shared their third anniversary.
3- Antiquarian
Guest did not provide analysis in time for publication.
4- Forged Steel
Analysis by: Madeline Sandholm
Forged Steel is a sick name and blue & orange silks is a layup (pun intended).
Catching up on Maddie Sandholm: Maddie works at a law firm, which scares me out of sharing any more details. Since her last Paddy’s Picks contribution, she has watched at least three more movies. She visited Aqueduct three times before its closure, adding a second racetrack to her passport, but as seen above, she remains a steadfast pupil in the school of color-based handicapping analysis. There is still exactly one spelling for the word, “gray.”
5- White Abarrio
Analysis by: Emma Moquin
I love this horse! This horse is a seasoned veteran who is very comfortable running at this level. People consistently try to underestimate him. whether it’s because of his age or because they feel he’s not ‘the horse.’ They constantly forget this horse has faced and beaten tough competition like Cody’s Wish, Derma Sotogake, Arabian Knight, and Charge It.
They thought his prime was over but he proved himself yet again two races ago, beating Sovereignty with an impressive 107 speed figure. His last race was on a sloppy track and he still managed to pull out a 99 speed figure. I believe in Irad Ortiz Jr and Saffie Joseph Jr. being in charge of this horse, setting him up to beat the odds once again.
Catching up on Emma Moquin: Upon graduating from the Fordham Graduate School of Social Services, Emma immediately received a full-time position as a therapist for high school-aged children. Escaping work as a restaurant hostess was only slightly less gratifying than the opportunity to provide assistance in the field of social work.
6- Sovereignty
Analysis by: Kreena Vora
Sovereignty is obviously going to win the Whitney. It would be ridiculous to root for any other horse. Who would dare question the horse who won two of the three Triple Crown races last year and some other stakes to boot?
He’s been biding his time waiting for some real competition again and the Whitney is the perfect time for him to show the world he’s still got that passion for racing. A classic story of winners continuing to win. Sovereignty will continue to reign sovereign.
Katching up on Kreena Vora: Kreena works in tech sales, hawking everything from used headphones to stolen stereo equipment. She has introduced me, often against my will, to several variations of coffee and chai, keeping meticulous rankings that have no bearing on her next choice for me. She and her boyfriend, the longshot-hunting Corbin Gregg, maintain a tense dynamic during fantasy football season.
7- Tiztastic
Guest did not provide analysis in time for publication.
8- Baeza
Analysis by: Niko Konstantellis
Baeza came into last year’s Kentucky Derby with a lot of promise. After posting a 107 speed figure* in the Santa Anita Derby, in which he fell just short to eventual Preakness Champion Journalism, the colt was immediately placed among the favorites for horse racing’s biggest event. He came out of the gate slow, sitting 15th after the first 1/4 mile, but a strong push down the stretch catapulted him to a third-place finish.
Obviously not the result anyone hoped for, especially his trainer, the late John Shirreffs, but this race proved that Baeza was on track for a successful career in the very near future.
That success never truly came for Baeza. He has continued to post strong speed figures, with only one race falling below 100 in his 6 races following the Derby (a 99 in the Alysheba Stakes this past May). But in those 6 races, there was only one race where he took home the top prize.
The good news: this distance for Saturday’s Whitney Stakes at Saratoga seems to fit Baeza perfectly. With four career races at 1 1/8 miles, he has three second-place finishes and one win, having taken down this weekend’s favorite, Magnitude, by over two lengths.
Additionally, a hot pace to start may lead to a race that sets up well for Baeza. The majority of this field likes to get out and go. Baeza has proven his ability to close from deep, and while he has not been able to close out races successfully for most of his career, a field of speed demons early on could cause an unsustainable pace, allowing for a slower final quarter and an opening for a closer to make his run.
Flavien Prat, who got the mount during Baeza’s Kentucky Derby trip, will be back in the saddle on Saturday, hoping to avenge defeat against Sovereignty, who will be lining up two posts down in the opening gate. “Always the Bridesmaid but never the Bride.” Well, I hope you saved some cash for that expensive coffee machine off the registry, cause Baeza’s getting hitched!
*All speed figure data courtesy of Brisnet
Catching up on Niko Konstantellis: Niko bought a bunch of Barebells protein bars and has been sending video reviews for the ones he has tried. He proposed to Kristina Stevanovic in June and plans to get married in 2027. His favorite Barebells flavor so far has been banana bread.