Month: February 2022

Road to the Derby: Risen Star Stakes Analysis

I’m not sure if sitting in a Pennsylvania diner is really getting the muses going, but this article needs an introduction and I’m the man for the job.

This weekend, everyone’s favorite New York handicapper finds himself abroad to visit his sister, and I have to admit that I’m not cut out for country living. Waiting outside the Waffle Shop North in State College this morning, my family and I experienced our first squall. I don’t know the exact definition of a squall, but I can describe it well enough now. In one moment, visibility decreased to 30 feet as sudden gusts of wind blew snow around like Super Bowl confetti. There was an inch on the ground within minutes, but it ended as soon as it began. This place is bizarre. read more

Road to the Derby: Sam F. Davis Stakes Analysis

I don’t care if you’re working on your nacho recipe for Sunday; I need every Paddy’s Picks reader to stop what they’re doing and look at this Derby prep. It’s imperative if they consider themselves handicappers.

This year’s running of the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs probably won’t produce the next Kentucky Derby winner. That’s not what I’m offering by forcing all of you to look at it. What I can offer, however, is one of the most challenging handicapping tests I’ve ever seen. read more

Road to the Derby: Robert B. Lewis Stakes Analysis

Who doesn’t love a small field at Santa Anita? Wait, no one? No one likes small fields at Santa Anita? I know one guy who appreciates them.

Last year’s running of the Robert B. Lewis Stakes was won by future Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit and trainer Bob Baffert. Though Baffert has now won the Robert B. Lewis in three straight years, the domination didn’t start in 2019, as he has also won it nine times since 1999.

But when Medina Spirit failed a drug test shortly after his Derby win, a revolution ignited in the racing world. Baffert was “canceled” by Twitter users and the liberal media after years of controversy, and he hasn’t laid a finger on a horse since. Meanwhile, California has quickly become a haven for drug-free racing and proper animal care. Politics and corruption became a thing of the past when the racing world took a big step forward. read more

Road to the Derby: Holy Bull Stakes Analysis

Those who have known about Holy Bull since the 1990s will have to forgive me for discovering him during the pandemic. I knew his name before then, of course, but I didn’t look into his career in earnest until I literally had all the time in the world. When I watched his races, I saw a prototype for racing as I understand it today. I was amazed.

Before Mike Smith was a jockey to the stars, he was the jockey to this star, a powerful speedball that dared the competition to catch him. His Travers win was one of the gutsiest a racing fan could ever hope for, and Durkin’s call that day could not have been improved upon by any writer. But there were flaws in the Bull’s career too.  read more

Road to the Derby: Withers Stakes Analysis

Aqueduct doesn’t produce Kentucky Derby winners. It hasn’t for some time. In 2000, Fusaichi Pegasus won the Wood Memorial before taking down a weak Derby field, becoming the first to pull off the feat since Pleasant Colony in 1981. In 2003, Funny Cide lost in the Wood but went on to win at Churchill, much like Secretariat did 30 years prior. But in general, New York is no longer the place for Derby hopefuls to spend their winter months. This race seems to confirm that.

The 2022 running of the Withers Stakes is an improvement on the Jerome Stakes, the race before this one on the Aqueduct trail to the Derby. But the new faces in this field aren’t as fresh as they are around the country. New York’s best representative, Mo Donegal, has shipped to Florida to run in the G3 Holy Bull instead. There are at least four runners in that field at Gulfstream that could win this race by five lengths. read more