Because I’ve been working for a week straight to complete my thesis project for Columbia, I originally had no plans to provide Paddy’s Picks coverage for the Travers Stakes. But this morning, five of my usual guests texted me to complain that they hadn’t been asked for a pick.
I was so proud of them for knowing about the race and guilty for trying to skirt my duties that I’ve decided to reverse course and provide some analysis myself for the Midsummer Derby, one of my favorite racing events and one I would have enjoyed as a fan regardless of my schedule. A review of guest picks will come sometime next week, as I apparently have readers and cannot afford to lose them to other casual Long Island-based pony blogs. Let’s get into it.
Saratoga, Race 12
Travers Stakes (G1) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 1/4 Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 6:11 p.m. ET
1- Forte
He sounds familiar. This colt has been at the forefront of racing fans’ minds since he won the BC Juvenile last year. But for all of the hype surrounding him, he hasn’t quite delivered on those expectations yet. That might be a little harsh to say about a colt that’s won seven of nine career starts, but withdrawing from the Derby and showing up a little flat in the Belmont does raise questions. He seemed to take a step forward in the G2 Jim Dandy last time out but that was on a sloppy track and many believe he should have been disqualified for some antics in the stretch. He’s a deserving favorite but there are others I like more at a price.
2- Arcangelo
It’s hard to poke any holes in the Belmont Stakes winner, as he’s lightly raced and made the most of his limited starts this year. Three straight wins while stepping up steeply in class made him a star pupil in a very short span. He hasn’t raced since early June and it’s arguable that he got a very nice trip in the Belmont. He’s been training nicely, however, and seems to have a handle on the going upstate. Solid contender.
3- Tapit Trice
He’s a bit of a puzzler, this one. At one point this season, he seemed unstoppable and earned a fair amount of buzz going into the Derby. He seemed to hit a wall there though, and despite a solid show finish in the Belmont, he returned with another dull effort in the G1 Haskell. Maybe he fires here, but there are more reliable options out there.
4- Mage
This colt is sure to take some flack for a disappointing Haskell showing, but the truth is that he ran well enough to beat some solid runners and simply lost to an improving horse. That being said, I don’t believe it’s a coincidence that the three best performances of his career came on closer-friendly tracks. His Derby win, which can also be seen as his only notable victory, required an extremely hot pace up front, the likes of which are unlikely to materialize in this smaller field. Javier Castellano has also left to ride fellow runner Arcangelo.
5- National Treasure
The Preakness Stakes was the weakest Triple Crown Race of the year, so weak in fact that officials are now considering changing the entire structure of the three-race event. That’s not this colt’s fault, as he merely took advantage of that field in a wire-to-wire score. It did, however, make him an obvious toss when all the heavy hitters came back for the Belmont. He’s been training well at Del Mar and his speed has never been an issue, but he still needs to prove he belongs among the very best in his crop.
6- Disarm
Such a sneaky option here. This Asmussen trainee has been in the mix all year, never finishing worse than fourth in some very competitive races. He picked up a nice win in the G3 Matt Winn back in June, displaying a little more tactical speed than he had previously. Last time out, he maintained that same form and came up short to fellow runner Forte in the G2 Jim Dandy. He’s been hanging around for a long time, and sometimes those types figure it out before the end.
7- Scotland
On the surface, this gelding seems like a well-purposed outsider coming off a nice win in the Curlin over Preakness runner-up Blazing Sevens. But I think the key to understanding this runner is to understand another horse named Il Miracolo, a perennial quitter and prohibitive long shot in several big 3YO races this year. If Scotland had wired that Curlin field on his own, I actually would have given him a little more credit, as he will likely get the same trip this time. The fact that Il Miracolo somehow held up well enough for second, however, has to make me think that the speed bias was exceptionally strong that day and propelled both runners forward and ahead of Blazing Sevens. Maybe everything sets up the same way this time, but the competition only gets tougher.
Order: 2 1 6 4
I don’t love the way Arcangelo was prepared for this start, in stark contrast to my feelings about his prep going into the Belmont, but it’s important to fall back on talent in uncertain handicapping situations. After just five career starts, I believe he still has more steps to take, and a layoff could turn out to be just what he needed to develop and reload for the second half of the season. He hasn’t done me wrong yet. Forte is extremely logical, and in an unscientific way, he feels like the type of runner that wins this race. Horses who didn’t get a chance to capitalize on their potential on the Triple Crown trail sometimes get delayed accolades in the Travers, and if not for some poorly timed setbacks earlier this year, it’s possible that he would be below even money entering this event. Easy to see a win for him. Disarm should not be taken lightly as a perennial fighter in a weak but competitive crop of three-year-olds this year. There may not be much pace for him, but he’s shown a new dimension in his recent starts and could get a littler closer before his stretch run. He’s a must-play in exotics with upside for more. The world seemed to turn on Mage after a dull Preakness effort, and that momentum has carried throughout the summer. Castellano’s departure tells the tale.
Thanks Patrick,
Sounds like good advice