When I first started Paddy’s Picks in 2020, the Grade 1 Travers Stakes was the first instance in which I truly began to share the site with all my friends, producing the first large-scale guest article. It feels like the right time to open things up again in 2026.
In a familiar format (after weeks of torturing the regulars with more intense challenges), I have requested for a slew of returning faces to share their pick for this year’s “Midsummer Derby” and provide their reasoning. As always, this article clearly demonstrates the point that there are an incalculable number of ways to form an opinion at the track.
It’s nice to have people back on here, or perhaps to simply be back on here in general. My friends and family have always been eager to share this passion of mine, and I genuinely believe little games like this have played a part in getting me to where I am. Thank you all for writing and reading. Let the fun continue.
Saratoga, Race 13
Travers Stakes (G1) for 3-Year-Olds, 1 1/4 miles on the Dirt
The Field: 1- Emerging Market, 2- Leading Change, 3- Napoleon Solo, 4- The Puma, 5- Renegade, 6- Ocelli, 7- Sea Strike, 8- Baby Vino, 9- Golden Tempo, 10- Silent Tactic
Emma Moquin
8- Baby Vino
I’m picking Baby Vino. I personally never loved Golden Tempo. Maybe that comes back to bite me, but I think he is definitely beatable and this horse had an impressive breakout run in the Haskell. This race is definitely a test to see if this horse is legit or was just lucky, but I’m willing to take a chance and bet on lightning striking twice.
Update on Emma Moquin: Emma recently received a new car, which has excited her a great deal. She plans on driving me all over the place because she loves me and I have important things to do.
Audrey O’Brien
7- Sea Strike
I’m gonna have to go with Sea Strike. Besides that being a sick name, Renegade won the 2026 Jim Dandy on Aug. 1 at Saratoga. Sea Strike won the Curlin 24 hours later, on the same damn course, over the exact same distance. And he did it in 1:48:94 to Renegade’s 1:49:08.
I discovered that his Beyer was a 102, the highest of anyone in this field. Now some might say, “ahh, but he ran fifth on June 6 at Saratoga.” Those people would be wrong to bring it up, because that race has nothing in common with the Travers. June 6 was a short sprint. It also allowed older horses to compete, whereas the Travers is restricted to 3-year-olds only. So poor baby Sea Strike had to face mature-ass horses in a sprint. Him finishing 5th there is no testament to whether he can win the Travers.
I will gladly take the horse who’s fastest right now with 5-1 odds against the favorite, Golden Tempo, with 5-2 odds.
Catching Up with Audrey O’Brien: First of all, I have to make the point of saying that Audrey has arguably produced the most sophisticated Travers analysis of anyone in this article. Moving on to the silly stuff, Audrey and I are overdue for our bi-annual hangout, mostly because most of our mutual friends have been traveling for what feels like nine months. Audrey remains one of the few people who has my location on her phone, giving her access to my whereabouts and saving her the time of guessing between approximately six places.
George McKnight
4- The Puma
Alright, getting one in at the wire here. I like Renegade — Todd Pletcher has won me money in the past, but the morning-line odds dropping on The Puma makes me reconsider my original stance. The Puma got scratched from the Derby a while back but was entering as a top contender, and his sire, Essential Quality, won the Travers five years ago. Also, jockey Javier Castellano is one of the most successful of all time in the Travers. So I’m gonna take The Puma. I know I’ve been on an ice-cold stretch for a while, but hopefully I can get back on track with this one. Also, the Jets go 17-0 this year and Geno Smith wins MVP.
Update on George McKnight: George survived his 12 days and nights around Bermuda, braving the stormy seas and losing his crew along the way. He emerged a new man, disillusioned by the experience but wiser for it as well. As a side note, I adore his pick here and will be siding with him heavily.
Alex Voorhis
8- Baby Vino
I choose Baby Vino for no other reason than his name means “baby wine.” As for what kind of wine he’d be, I would guess a merlot.
Catching Up with Alex Voorhis: While George was marooned on a raft in the Atlantic Ocean, Alex enjoyed a leisurely trip in Bermuda with a handsome and mysterious gentleman. Her endeavors in the law continue to go swimmingly.
Lucas Ludgate
7- Sea Strike
Sea Strike to win outright — fully betting on being able to maintain his most recent performance. If he does, he has the highest upside in this race. Also clearly better suited for 1 1/4 miles vs. the sprints he was running before. At 5-1, I like the value, given the top-end potential and Chad Brown/Flavien Prat combo.
Important thoughts:
The Puma: I like him. He comes from behind, he’s steadily improved (minus last race with a different jockey on a sloppy track). He’s named after a different, more powerful animal and mid-tier shoe brand. Very cool.
Renegade’s a great horse but I’m not betting a 3-1 horse whose jockey is out. Also comes from behind
Baby vino loves the slop. His father was a mudder. His mudder was a mudder. Bad news for him that perfect conditions are expected this Saturday at Saratoga.
Golden Tempo: fantastic horse and proven winner. Probably a better horse with a way longer track record than Sea Strike. However, I don’t like him twice as much at 5-2 vs. 5-1 for Sea Strike.
Unimportant thoughts:
P Lopez, used to ride Napoleon Solo. I can assume this is estemeed Regis alumnus Pablo Torre of Kawhi tree cutting fame. A renaissance man like myself. I realized halfway through writing this that the jockey’s name is P Lopez, not P Torre. In related news I’m writing this drunk on a bus in Spain. I’ll leave to Pat’s discretion whether he wants to sully his esteemed publication by including these ramblings.
Napoleon solo: another mudder
Who are these trainers and how do they have horses in this race? I’ve never heard of half of them ever. Why are so many of them named Chad (yes i obviously know chad brown but I was not familiar with his seasonal alter ego, chad summers)
Update on Lucas Ludgate: Lucas did not appreciate being confined to the footnotes in my article covering the Galway Stakes earlier this month. I’m tempted to put his unimportant thoughts down there this time as well, but I can’t endorse his negative self-talk. Lucas needs to love all of his thoughts.
Tyler Zorn
8- Baby Vino (sorta)
There’s some real top-level talent in this race at Saratoga, which should make for a highly competitive Travers on Saturday.
This makes my choice somewhat challenging, as I expect multiple horses to be in contention at the end of this race
I am eliminating the Emerging Market due to dipping regressing efforts, and also a demonstrated inability to truly compete against high-level competition at the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes.
Leading Change is intriguing and appears to be a rising talent. This will be Leading Change’s first real test, so I don’t feel comfortable with that selection.
Napoleon Solo is a good pick, coming off a recent win at the Preakness. But I don’t like the fact that Lopez, the jockey that has ridden this horse recently, is not going to ride that horse in the Travers.
Baby Vino, the 8 horse, recently bested Napoleon Solo, The Puma, and Ocelli in the Haskell as well. I think it is telling that Lopez is riding Baby Vino instead of Napoleon Solo this time around.
The 6, 7, and 10 horses to me demonstrate too much inexperience for a race of this caliber and the level of competition. Their speed figures are also not as impressive as the rest of the field, with the recent performance from Sea Strike being an anomaly in my opinion.
To me, this race comes down to Golden Tempo and Renegade, with Baby Vino being my sleeper pick. Golden Tempo is the favorite, having recently won the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes (at Saratoga I might add).
Renegade is the type of horse to start slow and then make a big push on the final turn. He had a valiant effort in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes, finishing 2nd and 3rd respectfully, in an attempt to catch Golden Tempo.
If I was a betting man, I would take Golden Tempo, Renegade, and Baby Vino in a box trifecta. To me, Baby Vino is the sleeper in this race, and it is surprising to me that the horse is listed at 10-1 odds. Granted, this horse did not compete at any of the Triple Crown races. However, he has been performing extremely well as of late with three wins in a row, demonstrating consistent improvement.
I believe Baby Vino will be in the mix and give the top dogs, Golden Tempo and Renegade, a run for their money!
Update on Tyler Zorn: Tyler struggled to submit his pick for the Travers after working a 14-hour day on Friday. His dedication to all of his passions, namely Paddy’s Picks, is always appreciated.
Clara Gerlach
9- Golden Tempo
I’m going to go with Golden Tempo since I’m hopeful he’ll have the right pace, as his name suggests.
Catching Up with Clara Gerlach: Clara continually teases the masses with a potential return to New York for work, and those plans continue to get pushed back. It is my firm belief that she’s just ratcheting up the anticipation at this point.
Madeline Sandholm
7- Sea Strike
I think his name is sick, feels like the name of a move Poseidon would have if he was a Pokémon. Also he ran well in the beginning of August, so hopefully he keeps up that hot streak.
I was tempted to pick The Puma (wild to me that they let animals other than horses race), but I’m worried he’ll scratch again (last time he scratched the race, maybe he’ll scratch a fellow competitor next).
Update on Maddie Sandholm: Maddie hosted her sister and their friends in Manhattan on Friday evening, which required her to briefly run a hostel and stay up past her 7:30 p.m. bedtime.
Evan Vollbrecht
7- Sea Strike
I think I like Sea Strike here.
Golden Tempo’s got the best odds, sure, but he’s coming back from a long vacation and an infection — I’m predicting he stumbles here under pressure. Maybe he’s destined for greatness, but it won’t be a proper hero’s journey without some drama. (Also, safe bets are boring, and the satisfaction of being right is inversely correlated with the odds.)
Renegade and Sea Strike, the other biggest contenders, are both described as breaking late, with the latter’s pace seeming a bit more balanced historically. Sea Strike’s record is a lot shorter than the other horses, but to me, that means it’s still being written — his most recent race was unusually impressive, and it remains to be seen if it was a fluke or the start of a trend. The way I see it, if he can turn on the afterburner like he did in that last race, his first-half pace advantage might give him just enough margin to stay ahead of Renegade through the finish line.
Is this the most likely outcome? Doubtful. But it’s the story *I’d* like to see.
Catching Up with Evan Vollbrecht: I most recently saw Evan at the wedding of Owen Roche and Courtney Brogle, where he wore a rather sharp suit and further affirmed my belief that the success of my New York Mets is completely dependent on his viewership. I wish they were dependent on my viewership. As a side note, this was a nice Paddy’s Picks submission from him.
Maryam Beshara
9- Golden Tempo
Golden Tempo: A Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes-winning racehorse majestically gliding through the track with pink hues breaking through the clouds on the horizon — at least that’s what I’m envisioning. Seems like the clear winner to me.
Catching Up with Maryam Beshara: Maryam continues to work in politics, specifically between midnight and 4:00 a.m. as far as I know. In a recent meeting, we parted ways at Penn Station and I left her wandering around with her laptop, trying to find reception.
Kate McGrath
5- Renegade
Upon reviewing past performances for the first time — and despite being given instructions and having a background in math — I found there to be too many numbers. So, I ignored everything besides written analysis to find a horse capable without being the obvious choice. Unfortunately. it seems I got a little too excited by the cheeky note that “Pletcher has won the Travers three times.” So, upon further review, I chose the horse with the best odds. But what can I say? I think Renegade has what it takes, especially against the likes of Sea Strike.
Catching Up with Kate McGrath: This is Kate’s debut on Paddy’s Picks, and she handled the burden of the request far better than most. In the three times I have seen her in the past nine months, much of the discourse has surrounded a larger competition between our friends concerning who can eat the most bagels in a year. She’s going to defeat me handily.
Mia Agostinelli
7- Sea Strike
Why are there so many trainers named Chad? And one Brad. Unfortunately, picking one of the Chads and going with Sea Strike.
Catching Up with Mia Agostinelli: Mia completed the New York City Marathon in 2023 and is back in training to presumably run the same distance again soon, perhaps even longer if the mood strikes her. Her infrequent visits to New York make it difficult for me to share news of flight school or her other professional pursuits, though it is certain that she’s working harder than she should.
Kreena Vora
7- Sea Strike
I like Ocelli or Sea Strike. Sea Strike is a great name. Ocelli is a pretty good name. Sea Strike looks speedy. I’ll see if I can come up with a bad joke for either of them by tomorrow, or any other reasoning for the pick.
Update on Kreena Vora: Kreena and Corbin’s apartment is about as wide as an alleyway, giving them a unique challenge to structure the area between the kitchen and living room to accommodate guests. They recently got a new table toward this end.
Corbin Gregg
10- Silent Tactic
It’s always the quiet ones who are ready for a big step up. A lot can happen in 1 1/4 miles. This is the race this fella has been waiting for to prove himself.
Update on Corbin Gregg: Corbin wants a gaming table in his apartment but Kreena keeps saying no. He has given up the cause, but some of us fight on in his name.
Alyssa Macaluso
8- Baby Vino
Baby Vino feels like a winner to me, but it’s also been a tough week, so I’m attracted to anything that looks, sounds, or moves like a drink. Sea Strike in second because who named him? That’s so silly. But it does sound like the name for an undercover joint operation of pirates and other sea creatures. I guess Emerging Market as my third choice because it made me laugh. I hope he’s able to emerge early.
Catching Up with Alyssa Macaluso: Alyssa often visits New York and is gone by the time I realize she was here. This makes it somewhat difficult to catch up, though she did recently give me a small trove of punishment ideas for our fantasy football league, some of which were even legal.
Grace Getman
9- Golden Tempo
I’ll take Golden Tempo. Solid, dependable, consistent. Renegade seems interesting but those bad boys can bleed you dry.
Catching Up with Grace Getman: Grace lives in New Jersey.
Esme Bleecker-Adams
5- Renegade
I like the look of Renegade, having been on the podium in every past race. Also enjoy horses that come surging out from behind at the last second, for the drama (and it’s a great T. Swift song).
Catching up with Esme Bleecker-Adams: Esme also lives in New Jersey, except it’s slightly cooler when they do it. Their painting of Secretariat is proudly displayed in the living room of my apartment in Long Island City, and their creative counsel has fueled countless projects of mine since.
Reeya Vasisht
3- Napoleon Solo
Can I say Napoleon Solo and leave it at that? I love that name. Napoleon is a cool name even if the guy was questionable. And it just flows well.
Catching Up with Reeya Vasisht: I recently met Reeya’s parents after agreeing to move a couch out of her apartment in exchange for petty cash and an egg sandwich. Every part of the morning was pleasant except for the part where Luther Sackeyfio and I had to carry the couch down three flights of stairs.
Matt Ludington
5- Renegade
Hate to play the odds but Renegade speaks to me. The progeny of Into Mischief and Spice is Nice has a great chance to make his loved ones proud tomorrow. Napoleon Solo intrigues me as well, but I believe it takes a village to be truly successful, can’t do it solo. Wouldn’t surprise me if he won but it’s lonely at the top and I suspect the victory would feel hollow if not shared with others.
Catching Up with Matt Ludington: When I was slightly bitter about having to watch Game 5 of the NBA Finals in a hotel room in Delaware, instead of with my friends in the city, I texted Matt and had a profoundly negative chat about the state of the San Antonio Spurs. Celtics fandom and FOMO meshed very well that evening.
Chris Murray
9- Golden Tempo
I’m going with Golden Tempo. I couldn’t come around on Sea Strike as much as I wanted to. I think the race comes together nicely for Golden Tempo, and so long as he gets a decent trip, he’s the horse to beat.
Update on Chris Murray: When Emma thinks of Chris Murray’s responsibilities during work hours, she thinks of Morgan Freeman’s character in the film, “Driving Miss Daisy.”
Matt Clarkin
5- Renegade
I’m leaning Renegade. I think that’s the song the Steelers play during their games, and as a former Aaron Rodgers diehard, I have to ride with that.
Catching Up with Matt Clarkin: I have absolutely no idea what Matt is up to. I hope he has started wearing flashy suits and given himself a cool nickname like Slick or Buster.
Roxanne Cubero
9- Golden Tempo
It feels like a mild copout to select the most recent Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes winner, but after doing some brief research in between selling leotards and the usual ennui, I can’t help but acknowledge that the proof is simply in the pudding with Golden Tempo. There’s a nonzero chance that I’ll eat my words later, but all I know is that a little bronchitis can’t keep a diva down.
Catching Up with Roxanne Cubero: I made two plans to see Roxanne Cubero twice in the last week and both things fell through, essentially ruining my week. She found another friend to accompany her to the Mets-Astros game on Friday, however, and that friend was almost certainly better company than me while watching the Mets.
Jill Rice
3- Napoleon Solo
I was requested to do Paddy’s Picks after a long day spent reading about Gaul (via Caesar) and swimming in the Mediterranean of Spain. Therefore I have a lot of great options of horses themed around my current location. I was Struck by the Sea. I have three bottles of wine I’m taking home: a Baby Vino. I was in France, toute seule: I am Napoleon(,) Solo. I see that Golden Tempo is probably a favorite, but that does not matter to my handicapping. I like my French puns best and also he has some pretty large amounts of money earned, so I’m going with Napoleon Solo as I have entered, exited, and will re-enter and re-exit France very soon, and Napoleon was everywhere I’ve been in recent memory.
Catching Up with Jill Rice: Jill is engaged to Noah Laney and will soon return to the United States for their wedding, which will make things far easier for the vast majority of their guests. If the European-based couple were to have the ceremony in Germany, where they have studied for years, I likely would not feel sophisticated enough to comfortably attend.
Noah Laney
3- Napoleon Solo
While Golden Tempo is the winningest horse in the race, I’m hoping for an upset with Napoleon Solo to take it. He’s got a winner‘s name, even if he has been running behind Baby Vino as of late. Coincidentally also second in looks with The Puma on the field. All of which to say that I hope Monsieur Napoleon Solo will take the win and dethrone (and de-head!?) King Golden Tempo.
Catching Up with Noah Laney: Noah, of Jill Rice fame, is making his debut for Paddy’s Picks and seemed to pick up on the vibe of these articles immediately. I met him at Owen and Courtney’s wedding and am now motivated to become his groomsman in an impossible race against time.
Allie Stofer
7- Sea Strike
Sea Strike because I love the sea. But also, you should never cross it. Girl will take you DOWN. So if the sea wants to strike, she totally could (I do not know if this is a boy horse or not but the sea is a woman so she’s a she in my book). Ocelli was a close second because it sounds like Ocean, but alas, it is not Ocean.
Catching Up with Allie Stofer: Allie was in Washington and then Hawaii and might still be in Hawaii. Just as it was funny to me when it looked like Bermuda George was actually stranded in the Atlantic, my map currently tells me that islands are either really small or Allie has been swept out to sea like one of those rubber ducks.
Brianna Doucette
8- Baby Vino
I’m gonna go with Baby Vino, mostly because the name is fun and also because I have a good feeling about his chances
Catching Up with Brianna Doucette: Brianna continues to crush life as a law school student in Boston. With the NFL season starting up soon, she and I are about to start talking on a weekly basis again, which is a perfectly healthy dynamic and not at all an indictment on our bonding abilities.
Shaily Jani
4- The Puma
I pick The Puma. One, because that’s a horse named after another animal. Two, because calling the horse THE Puma is so sick.
Catching Up with Shaily Jani: Shaily calls herself The Puma when she needs to be really brave.
Emily Ellis
7- Sea Strike
I think this is the first time ever I haven’t liked any of the names. Emerging Mrket? Be so for real. Puma? That’s already an animal. F*** it, let’s go Sea Strike for the alliteration. Makes me think of krakens, which WOULD be a good name for a horse.
Catching Up with Emily Ellis: Emily is completely free the weekend of Sept. 12, if anyone was looking to make plans. Ryan Harvey will be unavailable, however.
Christian Madlansacay
3- Napoleon Solo
Napoleon Solo because he walked so Napoleon Dynamite can run.
Catching Up with Christian Madlansacay: Christian recently did me a favor and predicted the overarching plot for the next five years of the Marvel Cinematic Universe in the span of two text conversations. I have no doubt that his outline is anything but accurate. He has saved me approximately $700 in movie tickets.
Emma Regovich
4- The Puma
The Puma, since it made me think of a Mystery Science Theater 3000 episode about an AWFUL 80s movie called The Pumaman.
Catching Up with Emma Regovich: Emma recently made me curious enough to find footage of the 1980 film, “The Pumaman”. I’m re-evaluating everything.
Isa Piazza
3- Napoleon Solo
Vibes.
Catching Up with Isa Piazza: Isa celebrated the Fourth of July this year, which became clear when I briefly saw her at a Fourth of July party.
Courtney Brogle
9- Golden Tempo
My guesstimations will assuredly be skewed, because when not waking up at 2:30am to produce morning television, I’m gallivanting at the US Open Fan Week and the NY Liberty game (thus submitting after the race, and unable to research the horses involved to keep from being spoiled about the winner). Perks of Pat being a very gracious and patient friend!!
In my post-WNBA game haze (Libs won, btw), I’m going with Golden Tempo. Using just the Daily Racing Form I received from Pat as reference, he appears to be a favorite following his performance in the Derby and at Belmont. Acceleration and stamina seem to be apt adjectives for his racing style, though if he didn’t perform well, let’s blame the “minor infection” from late June (as of May 30, I’ve been partial to the “I’m sorry, I JUST got married” excuse, but the sick line is a classic).
Much love for Baby Vino (incredible name and seems to be one to watch for improving form and maturity) and Emerging Market (I work in finance news so on name alone I dig him, despite mediocre Derby/Belmont performances).
But maybe the real champ is the friend Pat who doesn’t hate his flakey friend who submits her bets late!
Catching Up with Courtney Brogle: Courtney’s exciting news that she has been promoted to segment producer more than made up for her Paddy’s Picks tardiness. Since her last submission, she and Owen Roche finally exchanged rings, along with Roxanne Cubero, when Huevos Rocheros won its first fantasy football championship.