Category: Analysis

Exacta Challenge: Guests Make Exactas for the 2026 Galway Stakes

There is no better way to demonstrate caring for your friends than to give them unnecessarily difficult handicapping challenges, which has led to the Exacta Challenge, a new format to accompany this gradual reintroduction to Paddy’s Picks. Taking suggestions on the name.

Replacing their traditional win bet analysis, I have asked my guests to craft an exacta box for the $200,000 Galway Stakes on Saturday at Saratoga. Each contributor has provided a pair of horses to finish first and second and their analysis. read more

Make a Case: Guest Handicappers Defend Every Horse in the 2026 Whitney Stakes

My venerated pony blog has been on hiatus for some time. There’s an excellent reason for that. An article in the coming weeks or months will more clearly catch up readers, and it will be an emotional chance for me to express gratitude to a massive group of people.

Race of the Day: 2024 Kris Kringle Stakes

My hopes for the Queens County Stakes at Aqueduct over the weekend were completely dashed when five horses scratched. The field quickly morphed from interesting to embarrassingly short-staffed. Then, I spied this ridiculously named stakes race on the Tuesday card at Parx and a few questions were answered.

The Kris Kringle Stakes seems to be the event some trainers considered a backup to the Queens County. Two horses I really liked over the weekend, Surface to Air and Repo Rocks, were entered in both fields and seemed to scratch at Aqueduct when that field came up tough on a sloppy track. It’s a practical move by the trainers, but it was a little disappointing as a fan. I shouldn’t have to chase these cool horses all over the country, and yet, that seems to be exactly what I’m doing. read more

Race of the Day: 2024 Queens County Stakes

I don’t go to Aqueduct often enough. It would be easy to blame the powers that be for not putting any money into the place, but that’s a poor excuse. The fact that I can take the subway to see horse racing and consistently neglect the option is squarely on me. It’s something I should rectify, as this year’s Queens County Stakes demonstrates that there’s still some excellent racing on display in Ozone Park.

Of course, I can always write for Paddy’s Picks. Sometimes, I just find a race I like and this year’s Queens County Stakes fits that bill. It’s a really well-composed field, featuring an army of talented allowance runners and some classier types trying to pick up a quick check. It struck me as the perfect Sunday afternoon race, and I’d love to share it with all of you. Let’s get to business. read more

Make a Case: Guest Handicappers Defend Every Horse in the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic

With such a crowded, competitive field in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic, I figured that all of you could use a little extra help. Continuing a format I debuted at the Kentucky Derby this year, I randomly assigned 15 guests to make winning cases for every horse in this year’s Classic field.

I’m happy to report that many of my contributors stepped up their game to tackle this assignment, which required them to support runners they might not have otherwise. It’s an interesting handicapping exercise that requires them to look for angles, instead of finding them via confirmation bias. More important than its usefulness, I also simply find their analysis entertaining. I hope my readers do as well. read more

Paddy’s Picks Analysis: 2024 Breeders’ Cup, Day 2

The staggered time zones have provoked Breeders’ Cup organizers to push up the Breeders’ Cup Classic to the eighth race on the Del Mar card. I find this decision to be a ridiculous disservice to the races that will follow it, but am nevertheless immensely excited for the stacked card ahead.

There is no way for me to effectively set the stage for an event of this magnitude. The only way for readers to truly appreciate this year’s Breeders’ Cup is to experience it, either through the Racing Form or at the betting windows. Let’s get right into it. read more

Race of the Day: 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic Analysis

I feel like I say this every year, but this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic is one of the most exciting dirt fields I’ve ever seen assembled. In addition to American superstars and an increasingly ambitious Japanese contingent, a European turf superstar will also try and make the switch to capture the crown jewel of this historic 14-race event.

In a rare case, it seems like every corner of this Classic division is holding up its end this year. Fierceness and Sierra Leone were the two best American three-year-olds this year (besides Thorpedo Anna), and both are in this field. Japanese superstars Derma Sotogake and Ushba Tesoro are both returning for another crack at a West Coast championship, and dynamic three-year-old Forever Young is also taking another jump across the Pacific. read more

Paddy’s Picks Analysis: 2024 Breeders’ Cup, Day 1

Welcome to the Breeders’ Cup! Over the next two days, I’ll do my very best to guide you through my picks for 14 virtually impossible races featuring the best horses in every discipline of racing. For fans of the sport, it’s a magical event. For handicappers, it’s a glorious nightmare.

The first day of the Breeders’ Cup has been reserved for juvenile races for several years now, and I think it’s an effective way to break up the massive two-day event. The horses running today represent the future of racing three different continents, a wonderful way to kick things off before turning to the present titans tomorrow. read more

Race of the Day: 2024 Travers Stakes Analysis

After dedicating so much time in my full-card analysis discussing the fanfare and history surrounding the Travers Stakes, it should be clear to anyone who wasn’t already painfully aware that I tend to be sentimental about sports. This isn’t really a matter of debate.

If you can believe it, this occasionally gets me into trouble with other sports fans. I get a lot of ‘rose-colored glasses’ accusations, or sometimes even an outright dismissal on the grounds that I’m being unrealistic or contrarian. I don’t even disagree with people who make those claims. I like radical decisions and big risks and I’m accepting of failure when they don’t work. I want to see something incredible every time I watch a sporting event, and I don’t see the harm in rooting for such things. read more

Saratoga Analysis: Saturday, August 24, 2024

As I write this in Oceanside on Travers Day morning, thousands of people are packing into Saratoga Racecourse to get a seat for one of the greatest racing events of the year. I don’t want you to take me for a slouch. I’m a fervent table gatherer at Saratoga myself, having made the run countless times on annual trips to the Spa. Even for me though, those at the track today strike me as radicals.

There will come a year where I eventually go to the Travers and brave the capacity crowd. There are also days when I envy racegoers who can go to Saratoga whenever they want, and there may be a moment later today where I feel that same way. But as I brave the dawn and toss and turn on my couch on Long Island, writing to all of you this morning, I must admit that I’m rather content. read more