There is no better way to demonstrate caring for your friends than to give them unnecessarily difficult handicapping challenges, which has led to the Exacta Challenge, a new format to accompany this gradual reintroduction to Paddy’s Picks. Taking suggestions on the name.
Replacing their traditional win bet analysis, I have asked my guests to craft an exacta box for the $200,000 Galway Stakes on Saturday at Saratoga. Each contributor has provided a pair of horses to finish first and second and their analysis.
For this more difficult task, it would have been convenient to give them a race on dirt, the surface they are most familiar with handicapping. It also would have helped to have a reliable favorite to lean on for half the bet. I have provided neither, instead forcing them to analyze a wide-open 5 1/2-furlong turf sprint.
I intended to reintroduce more old guests for the Galway after bringing back several key regulars for the Grade 1 Whitney Stakes last weekend. The problem is that I like my regulars, and I happened to come up with a difficult assignment that required articulate analysis. A few newcomers have made it in, however, and I expect more to trickle in for articles in the coming weeks.
Saratoga, Race 10
$200,000 Galway Stakes for 3-Year-Old Fillies, 5 1/2 Furlongs on the Turf
The Field: 1- Gerrards Cross, 2- Epic Lady Luck, 3- Oscar’s Encore, 4- Queen Juno, 5- Cadenza, 6- Mauna Loa, 7- Triskelion, 8- Mythical, 9- L’Eclair (MTO)
Emma Moquin
5- Cadenza and 6- Mauna Loa
For my exacta, I’m going 6-5. The 6, Mauna Loa, is coming off an impressive last race at Woodbine with an even more impressive speed figure. While there is a lot of speed in this race, I believe this horse has the ability to hang on.
For my exacta, I’m pairing her up with the 5, Cadenza. This horse is coming back after competing in two graded stakes races and is now taking the needed step back down where I believe this horse is being set up for success. With Brad Cox and Manny Franco, I believe this horse can get up there for one of the top two spots.
Update on Emma Moquin: Emma is about the same as she was last week. She is currently vacationing at Saratoga, enjoying her second trip to the Spa this summer. She recently received her first vacation day for her new job and immediately used it to travel upstate on Friday.
Joan Moquin
3- Oscar’s Encore and 6- Mauna Loa
I definitely think there’s something to be said for lead horses, and I think these two will duel it out right to the wire.
Mauna Loa seems to be ready for a big win. She is a beast of a horse with a solid last-out speed figure and multiple wins to date. A late jockey substitution [with Irad Ortiz Jr. injured] may affect her performance, but it will most likely be of little consequence.
Oscar’s Encore is coming off an early July win at Saratoga with jockey Jose Ortiz and is ready for another. She has what it takes to keep the pace with Mauna Loa right to the finish line.
Catching up with Joan Moquin: My mother has settled into retirement in Oceanside since her last Paddy’s Picks contribution, taking up several artistic endeavors and generally enjoying her time away from the Seaford-Oyster Bay Expressway. She also is at Saratoga this weekend and drove up with Emma on Friday.
Chris Murray
3- Oscar’s Encore and 5- Cadenza
Can you go wrong with Brad Cox and Manny Franco at Saratoga? In an uncertain field, Cadenza has performed on the turf. She has also been racing at Saratoga, while many of her opponents will be shipped to the upstate oasis. The surface should be more favorable than it was her last time out and she consistently finishes toward the front of the pack. Good trainer, good jockey, good horse. What’s not to love?
Oscar’s Encore seems to be a prime bounce-back candidate. After a nine-month layoff due to injury, she put in a quality outing in her return to Saratoga last month to earn a victory in her debut as a 3-year old. That adds up to two wins in two starts at Saratoga. Not to mention the important fact that trainer Joe Sharp entered two fillies into this stakes, but elected to put the Saratoga savant Jose Ortiz in the saddle for Oscar’s Encore. This may be the breakout moment that the doctor ordered for this up-and-coming filly.
Catching Up with Chris Murray: Chris is thriving in the taxing world of New York politics and recently moved with this humble editor to Long Island City. We have raised two iron skillets together and are saving up to send them to prep school.
George McKnight
3- Oscar’s Encore and 6- Mauna Loa
Hey folks, it’s me again. I am writing this from sunny Bermuda, so it will be briefer than usual. I am tasked with slapping together an exacta box for the Galway Stakes at Saratoga this Saturday. Exacta boxes have always been my betting preference at the track, and I think I have something worth considering. It’s a 5 1/2-furlong burst, so the fillies are going to have to establish themselves early, with not much time to stalk.
Cadenza shows promise at first glance, but she’s been beaten twice at Saratoga in her past two races, only showing stalking prowess at the 6-furlong distance. Hard pass for me.
Mythical looks like she can break through the crowd early and hold a lead on dirt — at this shorter distance on turf, that skill is highly coveted. The consistent speed figures (Brisnet) are also a plus.
Oscar’s Encore’s last performance at Saratoga makes her worth a look at 6-1. After a couple of rough performances at Woodbine and Kentucky Downs at the mile/1 1/8-mile distances, she seems to have found her lane at five furlongs, dominating at Saratoga last month. It’s riskier, but there’s a lot of upside here.
I also want to highlight Mauna Loa and Triskelion. The former showed blazing speed out of the gate at Woodbine last month. She’s relatively green, but was originally scheduled to be ridden by the good old Irad Ortiz, a consummate professional. Triskelion has a solid, consistent track record, but needs to stay ahead of the pack early, so keep the speed of her competition in mind here if you want to take her.
In short, I’ll box together Mauna Loa and Oscar’s Encore. I’m excited to see how this one plays out — I also really like Mythical and would probably take her to win outright in a separate bet.
Thanks for reading – good luck, all.
Update on George McKnight: As George noted, he and Alex Voorhis are currently in Bermuda, making it all the more admirable for him to provide his Saratoga analysis. For those blessed to have his location, it currently looks like he’s trapped in the Atlantic Ocean, which would be a conceivable situation for the young man.
Lucas Ludgate
3- Oscar’s Encore and 7- Triskelion
Honestly hate all of these horses and I’ll explain. Before doing so, my pick is a 3-7 exacta box. Very stinky. Every horse could win or finish dead last.
Editor’s Note: Lucas went on to provide negative commentary for every horse in the $200,000 Galway Stakes. His exhaustive analysis will be provided at the end of this article.
Update on Lucas Ludgate: Lucas has recommended that I listen to the self-titled album by the “supergroup” Lucy Pearl and also entertained my mad ramblings about Jim Croce.
Maddie Sandholm
4- Queen Juno and 5- Cadenza
I simply had to pick Queen Juno off name alone. My dog’s name is Juno and she’s the cutest (and also Juno would be pissed if I didn’t pick her namesake. She’s a big horse racing fan… well, she’s never seen a horse as far as I know but I’m sure she’d love to race after them if she ever saw one).
Queen Juno has a new trainer as of June 20 and looks like she’s racing better under Joe Sharp and with jockey Kendrick Carmouche — but it could just be that’s she’s growing into her legs. I could keep justifying my pick here, but it’s truly because she shares a name with my dog, so I’ll refrain.
The Cadenza pick was a mix of all the most important stats: name (love a music reference), silk colors (gold and burgundy), and the dam (Maddie’s Odyssey). Also looks like her racing has been pretty consistent this calendar year, so that’s a plus too.
Update on Maddie Sandholm: Maddie gave me a seven-sided die last Sunday and I believe it might have supernatural powers. There will probably be more time to explain later, as it seems friendly.
Kreena Vora
6- Mauna Loa and 8-Mythical
Mythical is experienced, speedy, and has won plenty of races. Time for him to carry his experience to the turf and prove he’s not a single-surface racer.
Mauna Loa is less experienced but has won 2 of 3 races and seems to be getting faster. I think this combination of youth and experience and speed makes for a great exacta.
Update on Kreena Vora: Kreena has spent an inordinate amount of time in Connecticut in the past two weeks. I find this to be a sorry state of affairs that will undoubtedly hurt her in the long run.
Corbin Gregg
2- Epic Lady Luck and 3- Oscar’s Encore
It’s like they are going to be helping each other. One last ride together before they ride off into the sunset.
Catching Up with Corbin Gregg: For legal reasons, Corbin remains a lawyer. He received the 10th pick in our upcoming fantasy football draft in an ongoing cosmic punishment for violating Zeus’s law.
We Now Return To…
The Lucas Ludgate Hate Watch
1- Gerrards Cross: Looked really strong the last two times out but have never heard of the jockey or trainer. Davis Dylan [Lucas’s interpretation of the New York-based jockey Dylan Davis] should be golfing at his dad’s [highly respected trainer Robbie Davis] country club on Saturday, not on horseback. Never heard of the trainer either, but shoutout women. Perhaps the fillies respond better to a woman’s leadership. I’d believe it. Interspecies solidarity. Hope she gets the job done.
2- Epic Lady Luck: Honestly, it seems like she should be better than 12-1, so if i were betting multiple exactas, she’d be in one of them. Regardless, topping out at 83/84 speed figures prob doesn’t get it done here, but Castellano’s a good jockey. Can’t say I’m familiar with Mr. Weaver though [he should be].
3- Oscar’s Encore: This lady lacks stamina. Woman after my own heart. She’s comfortable at this distance with a proven jockey and I like the value at 6-1 for a wide-open race. Joe Sharp is an awesome racing name.
4- Queen Juno: Joey Sharp got another one. How bout it. Your humble editor, Patrick, and I spotted Kenny Carmouche at the Mecca of racing, Sam Houston Race Track in Woodlands, TX. Could they get it done? Perhaps. Will they? Unlikely.
5- Cadenza: Dont love her. More consistent, sure, but of the same caliber as everyone else in my opinion. Not worth the price.
6- Mauna Loa: The only horse that could blow the field away, but she’s all over the place. 7 1/2 furlongs, 5 furlongs, synthetic, turf. This horse needs therapy, not to be the favorite (I could be made to look a fool when she wins by 4 lengths).
7- Triskelion: F*** it. Good jockey. Trainer sounds like he wrote Lord of the Rings [Lucas is not aware George Arnold goes by Rusty]. Pretty consistent and seems like a junkyard Cadenza, so I’ll take the value.
8- Mythical: Never run on turf. Don’t know what we’re doing here. Love the all-Hispanic team though.
9- L’Eclair: Meh horse. No jockey. Not interested.