Analysis - Paddy's Picks

Saratoga Analysis: Saturday, August 6, 2022

It’s Whitney Day at Saratoga, and that deserves some special treatment. As one of the most stacked cards on the calendar during the most important meet in American horse racing, there are few better days for racing fans to enjoy.

Beyond the G1 Whitney, a race featuring superstars Life Is Good, Olympiad and Hot Rod Charlie, Saratoga is also hosting the G1 Saratoga Derby Invitational, G1 Test, G2 Glen Falls and the Lure Stakes. Many of these races will have implications in the Breeders’ Cup, featuring early showdowns between the best runners in the country and a few from elsewhere. read more

Race of the Day: Hall of Fame Stakes, August 5, 2022

The Hall of Fame Stakes at Saratoga is always a fun event overshadowed by bigger races on the schedule. Well, I have a series for that, basically a spotlight that forces you all to read, and damn it if I’m not going to use it.

As a one-mile turf race for three-year-olds, the Hall of Fame is the sort of race that lands firmly in my wheelhouse. The problem: every horse in the race has a chance. This isn’t an exaggeration; of the nine horses in the race, there are nine separate cases one could make for a victory. Unlike the Alydar yesterday, which was more or less straightforward, Paddy’s Picks is unable to provide definitive analysis here. Consider it more of a second opinion. read more

Race of the Day: Alydar Stakes, August 4, 2022

The Alydar Stakes may not offer a large field this year, but the restricted stakes at Saratoga features plenty of recognizable faces looking to kickstart their 2022 seasons. It also feels a little like deja vu, if I can explain.

Last week, I noticed that the Curlin Stakes seemed to accommodate three-year-olds that weren’t quite good enough to compete in the G2 Jim Dandy. It seems that the Alydar serves the same purpose for older horses who aren’t quite good enough to win the G1 Whitney on Saturday. read more

Race of the Day: Governor’s Stakes, August 3, 2022

Today’s Race of the Day is the Governor’s Stakes, an Indiana statebred stakes race for three-year-olds. Allow me to explain.

Following a two-day break on Monday and Tuesday, I expected to return to Paddy’s Picks on Wednesday and analyze a stakes race at Saratoga. That plan had to change, however, when the Shine Again didn’t draw enough runners to be carded. With a few unappetizing allowance races remaining on the card, I had no choice but to look elsewhere.

As it turns out, there’s only one track in the United States that is offering any form of stakes racing today. Colonial Downs and Delaware Park let me down with underwhelming cards. Outside of Pennsylvania Derby Day, I wouldn’t publicly bet on Parx if every other track in the country burned to the ground. I was running out of tracks. read more

Race of the Day: Amsterdam Stakes, July 31, 2022

The Amsterdam Stakes is typically one of Saratoga’s hidden gems in a meet full of phenomenal racing. In the last three years, Shancelot, Yaupon and Jackie’s Warrior have won the event and went on to become top-level sprinters. There may not be any world beaters in this year’s field, but there’s plenty on display to make it interesting.

The 2022 Amsterdam field features a lot of interesting handicapping angles and some decent prices on competitive runners. Many of the favorites are coming off of layoffs and the long shots aren’t out of it on paper, while one precocious gelding may end up being more dangerous than all of them. It may be the sort of race that’s a little too complex to consistently make money on, but it has more than enough to qualify as Sunday’s Race of the Day. Let’s take a look. read more

Race of the Day: Jim Dandy Stakes, July 30, 2022

It feels irresponsible to consider the Jim Dandy Stakes anything other than a premier horse race worthy of fans’ attention. The argument can be made that short fields are ruining horse racing and that the Race of the Day today is an uninteresting one, but I consider those arguments blasphemous.

Regarding complaints of a small field, I disagree with the notion that there aren’t enough horses to go around. That’s true at some tracks, but it’s an absurd thing to say about Saratoga. Yesterday’s Curlin Stakes featured a full field of nine three-year-olds at the same distance, including two Triple Crown runners and many more contenders. The problem isn’t a lack of competition; no one wants to run into a buzzsaw until they have to. read more

Race of the Day: Curlin Stakes, July 29, 2022

Today’s Race of the Day is the Curlin Stakes at Saratoga, a restricted race for three-year-olds without a graded stakes win. It’s reminiscent of my Derby prep analyses from earlier this year and features some familiar faces, mostly Triple Crown rejects and runners looking to take a step forward this summer. It’s an exciting mix of talented horses and there are multiple angles worth examining closely.

Before we take a look, I feel the need to make a halfhearted apology. After rushing to publish yesterday’s Race of the Day on a tight schedule, I checked in later on to discover that all my work was in vain, as a sudden rainstorm in upstate New York took the event off the turf. I would fully apologize to my readers for giving them meaningless analysis, but I also feel compelled to hold my head high, as my top selection was apparently ready to go on both surfaces and won at 5-2. You’re welcome? Let’s try to make it two in a row in the Curlin. read more

Race of the Day: Saratoga Optional Claiming, July 28, 2022

A job that I prepared to take on last night was delayed after I crashed, but the Race of the Day for July 28 is finally here! The choices today were a little sparse, as the only stakes race at Saratoga today is the Birdstone, a marathon on dirt dominated by Fearless and Lone Rock. Rather than state the obvious, I decided to look further down the card, and I’ve landed on a race I like.

This allowance optional claiming field is essentially in the same division as many of the runners who competed in the Colonial Cup, yesterday’s Race of the Day. I promise to branch out soon, but these turf races are very enjoyable to handicap and they’re sure to come up again. I hope readers are with me. read more

Race of the Day: Colonial Cup, July 27, 2022

I’ve tried this format in the past and I’m going to try it again. Stick with me. Nearly every time I open a racing form, I find a race that catches at least some of my attention. The problem is that I don’t always have time to play a full card and share my thoughts with Paddy’s Picks readers. So… Race of the Day.

In what I hope will be a consistent segment on the site, I’m going to provide analysis for a single race that caught my eye on that particular day. The horses will usually be classy, turf racing will come up often and oddities will be prioritized. You know, the usual on this website. read more

International Spotlight: 2022 Sussex Stakes Analysis

Do people read on their morning commutes? I guess most people drive and don’t do all that much reading. But for those of you with the ability to check in on Paddy’s Picks this morning, perhaps I can something to get your Wednesdays started right. Welcome to the International Spotlight.

Every now and again, I notice a big race occurring somewhere in the world that American racing fans will likely never acknowledge. These races may appear peripherally to Americans on Breeders’ Cup days, but for the most part, some of the most talented runners in the world remain a mystery to them. I’d like to change that. read more