Analysis - Paddy's Picks

Race of the Day: 2023 Pegasus World Cup Analysis

In its seventh year as the premier horse racing event… in January, the Pegasus World Cup hasn’t exactly captured the imagination of horsemen, nor has it appealed much to fans. The 1 ⅛-mile race on the dirt at Gulfstream Park doesn’t typically attract international stars as the race’s title would suggest and a purse decrease in 2020 hasn’t helped matters.

But though the fields for the invitational have suffered in terms of quality in recent years, they have also remained large, as 12 runners typically line up regardless of the circumstances. After a 2022 season in which nearly every American star of the sport retired, this year’s Pegasus field lacks a killer and could therefore provide value. read more

Building A Super: 2022 Malibu Stakes w/ Kristina Stevanovic & Niko Konstantellis

Santa Anita, Race 10

Malibu Stakes (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt

Welcome back one and all to a holiday edition of the Paddy’s Picks Podcast! Today, we’ll be looking at the G1 Malibu Stakes at Santa Anita in a slightly altered format. After speaking to an army of contributors for this year’s Breeders’ Cup and enjoying the process immensely, I received an idea from guest Kristina Stevanovic, who suggested that a few people should return someday to put together a superfecta live for listeners. In other words, come to an agreement on a bet that includes the four horses that we believe will finish first, second, third and fourth in the race. I’ll be doing just that with her help, along with Niko Konstantellis, another longtime Paddy’s Picks contributor. For those of you who were expecting fellow Fordham alum George McKnight to join as well, that was the plan at one point but he unfortunately had to cancel at the last minute. The quartet became a trio but we eventually came to an agreement after some bickering. Please enjoy. read more

Race of the Day: 2022 G1 Cigar Mile Analysis

This year’s Cigar Mile at Aqueduct Racetrack will likely be the last big race on the New York racing calendar in 2022, as the track eventually makes way for claiming races and subpar allowances for a time.

A slate of Derby preps early next year should bring back some exciting competition as they always do, but until then, bettors with a preference for class may find themselves starved for a while in the Northeast. Let’s take advantage of the time we have.

This year’s Cigar Mile didn’t draw many runners, as the scratch of O Besos brings the field down to six. But it’s a solid sextet with a few key storylines between them, as some runners look to finish their three-year-old seasons strong against some salty older horses. read more

Paddy’s Picks Podcast: 2022 Breeders’ Cup Day 2, Part 2

Intro (00:00-00:47)

If you can believe it, this is called “Dramatic Epic Cinematic,” the exact sort of song I was looking for going into the third part of 2022 Breeders’ Cup coverage on Paddy’s Picks. We’re looking at the big races now — the Mile, the Distaff, the Turf and finally the Classic featuring the unstoppable Flightline. These are the races that have the power to shock the racing world in more ways than one, and my guests and I have in-depth analysis on all four. Whether your Saturday thus far has been profitable or less fortunate, there are still plenty of chances to get ahead, so listen in with us and enjoy! read more

Paddy’s Picks Podcast: 2022 Breeders’ Cup Day 2, Part 1

Intro (00:00-00:39)

The song for this episode is “Jazz Winkle” by Eggy Toast. I’m not sure if it beats the banjo from yesterday’s episode, but it’s certainly an interesting way to begin Day 2 of Breeders’ Cup coverage on Paddy’s Picks. In this episode, my guests and I will be looking at the first five Breeders’ Cup races on Saturday’s card at Keeneland. This is our first look at older horses in this championship series, and there’s plenty to discuss, so settle in and enjoy!

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint w/ Maddie Sandholm (00:45-19:48)

Paddy’s Pick: 3- Chi Town Lady read more

Paddy’s Picks Podcast: 2022 Breeders’ Cup, Day 1

Let’s try something new. Instead of doing separate analysis and guest contributions for this year’s Breeders’ Cup, I’ve decided to combine the two in a massive three-part podcast series. To navigate what is admittedly a massive first episode for Friday’s card, I’ve provided a sort of guide below.

Intro (00:00-01:39)

For those of you wondering, the song is called “St. Louis Tickle,” and for those of you still here, welcome to the inaugural Paddy’s Picks podcast, as well as Day 1 of Breeders’ Cup coverage. For those of who you don’t know, my name is Patrick Moquin, and I’ve run Paddy’s Picks since 2020 as a way to combine my passions for writing and horse racing. Today, we’re trying something a little different. read more

International Spotlight: 2022 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Analysis

Paddy’s Picks goes international today with early morning analysis for the G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, the richest horse race in France. I intended to write more for Paddy’s Picks this week, but an illness has prevented me from doing much of anything productive in recent days.

An extremely entertaining and challenging 20-horse race at Longchamp was supposed to be the culmination of my efforts, but it will instead have to serve as my return to work on the website. Fortunately, there are many days worth of angles and analysis in this event, more than enough for any handicapper on a Sunday morning. Let’s take a look. read more

Saturday Spotlight: 2022 Travers Stakes Analysis

The Travers Stakes always comes up at an awkward point in the Paddy’s Picks calendar. With a full slate of work due at Fordham in recent years and now at Columbia, publishing consistent analysis in late August is always a difficult task. There are few races in the United States that would necessitate dropping everything for a Saturday, but Saratoga provides.

This year’s running of the Midsummer Derby is wide open, with at least six of the eight runners qualifying as legitimate contenders. The top three finishers in the Kentucky Derby, as well as the Preakness and Haskell winners, are all making an appearance in a race that typically concludes the three-year-old season with the Breeders’ Cup looming. read more

Race of the Day: Galway Stakes, August 11, 2022

Today’s Race of the Day is the Galway Stakes at Saratoga, surprising no one even slightly familiar with this website. Not only is it a turf sprint stakes race, but it’s also a race I’ll have the opportunity to see in person, as my family and I are taking our annual trip upstate this week.

Not only is today the second day of the Moquin family’s Saratoga trip, but it also happens to be my father’s birthday! Instead of giving him a tangible gift (a hit-and-miss proposition for a guy who usually just wants new shirts or socks or a pair of slippers), we’ve decided to spend his day at one of his favorite venues. The fact that I happen to benefit from this arrangement is purely coincidental and none of your business. Happy Birthday Dad! read more

Race of the Day: Incredible Revenge Stakes, August 7, 2022

With three stakes races on Sunday’s card at Saratoga, it may seem odd that I’m turning my attention to the Incredible Revenge Stakes at Monmouth Park. There are a few reasons for this, some cautionary and some fun.

First off, with rain in the forecast upstate, I don’t feel like handicapping any turf races if they wind up moving to the dirt. Visualizing rain at Saratoga, the card becomes much less interesting, so I decided to begin considering other options. I didn’t have to look long.

This Incredible Revenge field is actually a lot of fun in its own right, featuring some top-notch runners and a handful of interesting angles. So even though we’re shipping the Race of the Day to Jersey for the day to escape some showers, there’s still plenty to enjoy here. Are you with me? read more