Road to the Derby: Santa Anita Derby Analysis

Let’s make one thing clear right off the bat. This race has three Bob Baffert horses in it. He may have moved them out of his barn so that they can qualify for the Kentucky Derby, but it’s little more than a thinly veiled ruse.

I’m vaguely aware of who Tim Yakteen is, and I’m also aware that he’s his own trainer with his own stable. But anyone who truly believes that these horses are under the direction of anyone but Baffert are kidding themselves. He’s trying to win a Derby from afar and he’s taking half of this six-horse field to do it. Let’s see who’s standing in his way. read more

Road to the Derby: Wood Memorial Stakes Analysis

If an introductory paragraph is the only thing standing in the way of this article getting published, you all wouldn’t mind if I fudged it a little, right? Like, if I were to ask a bunch of silly rhetorical questions to fill two or three paragraphs at the beginning here, would it really be the worst thing?

Or do you want me to go all out after all? Do you want me introduce the Wood Memorial as it deserves to be introduced? Do you expect me to wax poetic about the 1973 running of the race, when Secretariat finished third behind Angle Light and Sham? Or maybe you’d prefer if I mentioned the 2005 running, when Bellamy Road scared the living hell out of every racing fan with a 120 BSF that he never came close to replicating? Maybe there are some fans of the 2000 running, when Fusaichi Pegasus won and became the last Kentucky Derby runner to win the Aqueduct prep race before — would that be entertaining? read more

Road to the Derby: Jeff Ruby Steaks Analysis

I’ll be straightforward with readers; this year’s running of the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks is not a useful prep race for the Kentucky Derby. The winner may appear in the race, but that horse will almost certainly be up against it in their next start.

The difficulty of handicapping a race like this only makes its uselessness all the more frustrating. Deliberating between horses running on three different surfaces at a number of different tracks makes it more of a dartboard race than anything else. I’ve made conclusions where I can, but you’ll all have to give me a little rope on this one. Let’s get into it. read more

Road to the Derby: Arkansas Derby Analysis

Sometimes, weak fields lead to interesting circumstances in horse racing. Of the Derby prep contingents this year, runners in Arkansas seem to be especially disappointing. But with 100 points going to the winner of the 2022 Arkansas Derby regardless of the field’s strength, multiple outsiders seem to be taking advantage of the situation.

In a historic stakes race previously won by the likes of American Pharoah and Charlatan, this year’s Arkansas Derby may come down to a California shipper, a filly and a precocious allowance runner. All three seem to have an edge on the runners that have been working toward this race for months, and may have also found a back door to Kentucky in the process. Let’s take a look. read more

Road to the Derby: Florida Derby Analysis

Racing fans cannot reach the first Saturday in May without first going through the first Saturday in April. Later today, three Kentucky Derby preps will be contested in three different states within the span of one hour. 

In this trio of future-defining contests, the G1 Florida Derby is the most competitive, with talented runners from Tampa Bay Downs and Gulfstream converging in the state’s biggest race for three-year-olds. If you can’t tell, it’s an exciting day for me.

This year’s running of the Florida Derby seems to come down to a pair of familiar foes, White Abarrio and Simplification. Though the two squared off in the G3 Holy Bull back in February, Simplification suffered a poor start that day and could only rally for second as White Abarrio cruised to an easy victory. Simplification came back with a strong victory in the G2 Fountain of Youth, but White Abarrio has not raced since.  read more

Road to the Derby: Sunland Derby Analysis

I don’t think the winner of this year’s Kentucky Derby is coming out of any preps at Sunland Park. If not for Mine That Bird’s historic win in 2009, I would posit that no Derby winner will ever come out of Sunland Park. But upset victories like that are exactly why we need to pay attention. Long shots on the biggest stages have to come from somewhere, after all.

I’m actually a big fan of this race from a handicapping standpoint, and my logic is fairly straightforward. At less prestigious tracks like this one, I consider it unwise to accept obvious favorites. Obvious contenders at Sunland might be relatively talented, but they’re also there for a reason. There are no Secretariats in New Mexico. Let’s take a look. read more

Road to the Derby: Louisiana Derby Analysis

Though the Dubai World Cup was fun earlier this afternoon, the Louisiana Derby is still my focus on this Saturday of racing. But in a way, I’m hoping that the headline from Fair Grounds after today will not concern this race but the one preceding it. 

In the 11th race in Louisiana this evening, the champion filly Echo Zulu will make her three-year-old debut in the Fair Grounds Oaks, a prep for the Kentucky Oaks in May. Of all the three-year-olds in this year’s class, I have to admit that she’s the one I’m currently most excited to see. If my predictions are correct for both feature races, Fair Grounds may be a little chalky tonight.  read more

Fordham Feud: Dubai World Cup Guest Analysis

This may not turn into a recurring series, but at this exact moment, I happen to have cooperative friends and a competitive race. To celebrate the 2022 running of the Dubai World Cup, six guests found time in their busy schedules to provide analysis for Paddy’s Picks. Some know what they’re doing and some are trying their best.

At Fordham, I’m one of the few students who spend a significant amount of time on both of the university’s campuses, Lincoln Center in Manhattan and Rose Hill in the Bronx. It’s inevitable that I got to know some people in both places along the way, and what better way to keep friends than to pit them against one another?  read more

Road to the Derby: Tampa Bay Derby Analysis

My spring break began with a New Jersey snowstorm and a sleepover with a Labrador Retriever. When I agreed to stay in my friend’s Morristown home for a night en route to the Poconos, I wasn’t aware that my designated couch also belonged to Jake the dog. 

I reasoned that Jake would at least protect me from the family’s cats, to which I’m extremely allergic, but I was quickly proven wrong when Zayn the American Shorthair jumped on my chest at three in the morning. Jake just whined that his spot had been stolen. read more

Road to the Derby: Fountain of Youth Stakes Analysis

Though the New York contingent is stepping up its game, the 2022 running of the Fountain of Youth is still probably the most competitive Derby prep this weekend. There are plenty of runners coming out of allowance competition while the others are either coming off of long layoffs or recovering from them. There’s a lot to like here.

As a prep to the Florida Derby, this is a very helpful race, but since 2000, only one winner of the Fountain of Youth has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby (Orb in 2013). I’m not sure if the winner of this year’s Derby is in these ranks, but they won’t get there if they don’t get out of the starting gate in March. read more