The Go-To Second Opinion at the Track
I don’t care if you’re working on your nacho recipe for Sunday; I need every Paddy’s Picks reader to stop what they’re doing and look at this Derby prep. It’s imperative if they consider themselves handicappers.
This year’s running of the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs probably won’t produce the next Kentucky Derby winner. That’s not what I’m offering by forcing all of you to look at it. What I can offer, however, is one of the most challenging handicapping tests I’ve ever seen.
Who doesn’t love a small field at Santa Anita? Wait, no one? No one likes small fields at Santa Anita? I know one guy who appreciates them.
Last year’s running of the Robert B. Lewis Stakes was won by future Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit and trainer Bob Baffert. Though Baffert has now won the Robert B. Lewis in three straight years, the domination didn’t start in 2019, as he has also won it nine times since 1999.
But when Medina Spirit failed a drug test shortly after his Derby win, a revolution ignited in the racing world. Baffert was “canceled” by Twitter users and the liberal media after years of controversy, and he hasn’t laid a finger on a horse since. Meanwhile, California has quickly become a haven for drug-free racing and proper animal care. Politics and corruption became a thing of the past when the racing world took a big step forward.
Those who have known about Holy Bull since the 1990s will have to forgive me for discovering him during the pandemic. I knew his name before then, of course, but I didn’t look into his career in earnest until I literally had all the time in the world. When I watched his races, I saw a prototype for racing as I understand it today. I was amazed.
Before Mike Smith was a jockey to the stars, he was the jockey to this star, a powerful speedball that dared the competition to catch him. His Travers win was one of the gutsiest a racing fan could ever hope for, and Durkin’s call that day could not have been improved upon by any writer. But there were flaws in the Bull’s career too.
Aqueduct doesn’t produce Kentucky Derby winners. It hasn’t for some time. In 2000, Fusaichi Pegasus won the Wood Memorial before taking down a weak Derby field, becoming the first to pull off the feat since Pleasant Colony in 1981. In 2003, Funny Cide lost in the Wood but went on to win at Churchill, much like Secretariat did 30 years prior. But in general, New York is no longer the place for Derby hopefuls to spend their winter months. This race seems to confirm that.
The 2022 running of the Withers Stakes is an improvement on the Jerome Stakes, the race before this one on the Aqueduct trail to the Derby. But the new faces in this field aren’t as fresh as they are around the country. New York’s best representative, Mo Donegal, has shipped to Florida to run in the G3 Holy Bull instead. There are at least four runners in that field at Gulfstream that could win this race by five lengths.
Before we continue my study of the Kentucky Derby prep season, we have two orders of business to go through. The first is a short review of an unfortunate beat, and the second concerns today’s Pegasus World Cup.
Last week’s Lecomte Stakes was a solid start to this series on Paddy’s Picks, despite an unfortunate nose bob at the finish. Interestingly, I watched the race on my phone in Duet 35, a karaoke bar in Midtown that I have now inexplicably been to twice in the last six months. As I struggled to come to terms with this new lifestyle of mine, I watched as my top pick, Epicenter, powered into the stretch while putting away Pappacap and all other challengers. It seemed like a certain win until it didn’t.
It’s often said that learning the art of handicapping demands a high tuition, and while I’m certain that I’m still reconciling losses made during my elementary school years, I consider my early days in the pastime to be fortuitous at the very least. My scores on some of racing’s biggest events over the years have yielded countless memories and made for a supremely enjoyable pastime.
In 2016, I was confident in Exaggerator’s chances in the slop against Nyquist and was rewarded accordingly. In 2019, my confidence in Sir Winston and Tacitus in the Belmont led to a tidy profit that kept me afloat for the rest of that year. Most Breeders’ Cups are successful ventures in some sense, as well as the Travers and Pegasus World Cup. In fact, there’s only one annual race remaining that continues to elude me.
Embrace the chaos. Some of the picks enveloped within are of significant value. Some are next to useless. For the biggest racing event of the year, I will leave it to the reader to discern meaning and credibility. Most importantly, I sincerely hope everyone enjoys the race.
Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 ¼ Miles on the Dirt
Isn’t that a city? I like the sound of it. Why did you name a horse that? Maybe it’s fast, so you don’t need a name to show that it’s fast.
Horse racing doesn’t handle expectations well. The problem from a sporting perspective is clear — horses don’t compete with the excitement of fans in mind. In many years, a nondescript claiming race at Monmouth may provide more of a thrill to fans than the Kentucky Derby. This puts the Breeders’ Cup, and specifically the Classic, in an awkward position as the culminating event of the season.
Sometimes, the race delivers. The two Derby winners hit the wire together when Ferdinand beat Alysheba in ’88. Cigar had the heart of a champion in ’96 but couldn’t repeat against giant killer Alphabet Soup. Awesome Again beat one of the best fields ever assembled on dirt in ’98. Zenyatta pulled off the unbelievable in ’09. When the race lives up to the hype, there’s nothing better.
The Breeders’ Cup Turf is arguably one of the toughest races on the card, but Paul Moquin and Patrick Moquin Sr. are up to the challenge. Between my father and uncle, bettors can feel secure that they are getting experienced second opinions for a race that few bettors could ever hope to figure out alone.
Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 ½ Miles on the Turf
I’m not picking any Euros 💶 this race. The grass will be too hard for them and just right for Rockemperor who is ready to go, along with Gufo, who’s just as ready. Japan will be there at the end with one of my faves Channel Maker. My original pick scratched so he could get in.
Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 1/2 Miles on the Turf
Is it a renaissance? After a long stretch of middling starts, he came back with the best performance of his career in a 15-1 upset of the G1 Turf Classic Invitational. In defeating fellow runners Gufo and Japan, he establishes himself as a contender from the East coast, but this is a whole different ball game.
It’s an interesting strategy by Richard Mandella to keep this gelding at lower stakes levels for most of the year, but it has been overwhelmingly profitable. He has won seven of 11 starts since 2020 and loves the Del Mar turf, but there’s little reason to suspect he’s prepared for this level of competition.
