After last week’s guest handicapping article for Whitney Day was a success in every sense of the word, I’ve decided to expand the idea for the Travers. This article features a new generation of handicappers that have taken painstaking efforts to learn a game from a bygone era.
Although the analysis in this article is excellent, for outlooks from even more experienced handicappers, make sure to check out the article featuring guest experts. However, I wouldn’t underestimate the value of the opinions on display below. They’re all pretty smart cookies.
Emma Moquin
Emma is a 17-year-old girl currently residing in Oceanside, New York. She recently graduated from Sacred Heart Academy in Hempstead, New York, and will begin her first year at Penn State University later this month. She plans on studying education and has an interest in music theory. She’s been my sister for as long as she can remember.
As a member of the Moquin family, Emma had to either learn the sport of horse racing or run away, and she’s not overly fond of public transportation. Though handicapping is certainly not an intense hobby of hers, growing up around the track has given her a skill she never really worked too hard to attain. Of all the relative newcomers featured in this article, no one is nearly as fluent when reading the Daily Racing Form. Her greatest skill is drawing sensible real world conclusions from the statistics, which is something many handicappers struggle with. As a supportive sibling, she’s decided to provide top-notch analysis as a guest. Her notes are her own.
Win: Tiz the Law
Place: Caracaro
Show: Country Grammer
1- First Line
- Weak speed figures
- Not a strong jockey (Ortiz switched to ride South Bend)
- No jockey/trainer percentage between Cohen and Noda (No good)
- Never heard of Orlando Noda
- Lead horse that I believe will run out of speed late
2- Country Grammer
- Love this jockey/trainer combo
- Irad Ortiz seems to know how to ride him
- Not great workouts
- Solid speed figures that seem to increase with each race
- A strong contender and competition for Tiz the Law as they seem to have a similar running style
3- Uncle Chuck
- Not a big Luis Saez fan
- A lead horse, but I believe he has a better chance than First Line of maintaining speed
- Excellent workouts
- Very good and consistent speed figures
- As much as it pains me to say, Bob Baffert is an excellent trainer
4- Max Player
- Joel Rosario: big oof
- A big Linda Rice fan (Despite my distrust in Rosario, I believe this jockey/trainer combo has potential)
- Speed figures have been increasing with each of his races
- Came in 3rd in the Belmont Stakes (Has already lost to Tiz the Law)
- I like this horse, but I do not believe he has the ability to beat Tiz the Law
5- Shivaree
- I dislike this jockey and trainer
- Not great workouts
- I believe First Line and Shivaree will tire each other out based on their past races
- Basing him solely off his last performance seems unfair because in his previous two races before the Blue Grass Stakes, his speed figures were great
- This horse isn’t my favorite
6- Tiz the Law
- He is coming off his Belmont Stakes win with a 100 speed figure, which can’t be ignored
- Franco and Tagg are a great combination and they have proven their ability to lead this horse to victory amongst the best
- This horse really doesn’t need my sales pitch
- Obviously, the horse to beat
7- Caracaro
- I am a big and longtime fan of Javier Castellano
- I’m not completely familiar with the trainer, and so far with Castellano, he has a 0% jockey/trainer percentage, but he does have a good dirt percentage
- Very good speed figures
- Okay workouts
- It is important to note he only lost to Country Grammer by a neck and in this race, he has more distance
- I really like this horse in general and think it is the underrated pick in this race
8- South Bend
- Can’t go wrong with Ortiz and Mott (Big jockey upgrade)
- A turf horse, but came in 2nd in his last race, which was on dirt
- Okay workouts
- Solid speed figure in his last race
- This horse is the less consistent closer in the race (Max Player being the more reliable choice)
- This horse is an interesting bet, but not the safest
George McKnight
George is a 19-year-old resident of Sunnyside, New York, and will enter his junior year at Fordham University this fall. With a gun to my head, I would say that he’s studying economics, though I suspect he’s truly majoring in whatever will earn him a job working for the New York Yankees. He is also a graduate of Regis High School in New York City, and was one of many, many headcases on their high school baseball team, of which I was also a proud member on both accounts.
Certain aspects of handicapping haven’t been a problem for George, while others have been a struggle. As the owner of a vast collection of baseball cards, statistical analysis of the Daily Racing Form came extremely easily to him from the very beginning. However, while he enjoys racing, he has different reasons for partaking in the pastime, ones that I fully understand. Sitting in the backyard at Belmont with friends is extremely appealing to him, while sitting down for four hours at home to study a race card isn’t. However, his job here has been to handicap one race, and he’s done a meritable job.
To explain his picks, George provided analysis via text message, and a Paddy’s Picks staff writer then paraphrased his thoughts.
George’s Bet: Exacta Box with Tiz the Law and Country Grammer
George feels as though it would be foolish not to bet an exacta with Tiz the Law’s odds. He noted that Shivaree and South Bend are the vets in the race, but then concluded that Country Grammer and Uncle Chuck are ones to consider for second. After looking at the two horses, George said that he was high on Country Grammer. He notes that he is a product of Chad Brown that has been steadily improving with each race he’s been in and has also raced more recently than Uncle Chuck. He really appreciated his performance in the G2 Peter Pan, and noted that Irad Ortiz has a much higher proportion of success than Luis Saez. George believes that Uncle Chuck will stay up front and burn out, while Country Grammer will slowly build up speed on a track that will likely be fast despite rain in the forecast for Friday night.
Tyler Zorn
Tyler Zorn is a rising junior currently attending Loyola University Maryland. He graduated from Regis High School in 2018, ending a high school baseball career featuring flashes of brilliance throughout. He still plays club baseball, but has since worked harder to hone his skills in refereeing and electrical work.
Tyler has been studying horse racing for the better part of a year, and has only improved after a turbulent beginning. His observations are now strong enough to contend with anyone.
Tyler’s Pick: 7- Caracaro
Tyler understands that the horse to beat is Tiz the Law, but at even money, he has decided to go for an underdog. He narrowed it down to Caracaro and South Bend and came to the conclusion that Caracaro was his horse. Tyler likes Castellano and finds his past three finishes encouraging. While noting that Country Grammer defeated Caracaro recently, he finds it encouraging that his pick was able to go toe to toe with him in their last race. He likes that Caracaro is familiar with Saratoga, both from the Peter Pan and multiple encouraging workouts in early August. Overall, he likes that the horse is fresh and feels that Javier Castellano has the ability to take another great horse to victory in the Travers.
Niko Konstantellis
Baby Hercules, the prodigal son, returns after a reasonably successful guest spot in last week’s Whitney Day analysis. This time around, he did his own writing to go along with his picks and analysis.
Niko’s Pick: 3- Uncle Chuck, with a 3-6 Exacta
Niko: “Although Tiz the Law is the easy pick to win here, I think Uncle Chuck has the best chance to give him a run for his money. Despite only appearing in two races prior to this one, Uncle Chuck has proven he can run with top competition, winning convincingly in both of his appearances and posting Beyer Speed Figures well over 90 both times. With a proven jockey/trainer combo and the ability to get out to the front of the pack early, I think this inexperienced horse has the opportunity for yet another Baffert upset in this year’s Travers.”
Lucas Ludgate
Like Niko, Lucas has discovered a spotlight on Paddy’s Picks and won’t let go. After a couple of tough breaks on Whitney Day, he returns to try his hand in the Travers.
Lucas’ Pick: 6- Tiz the Law, with a 6-2 exacta
2- Country Grammer
- has greatly improved each time out; strong potential if he can run as well as last race
3- Uncle Chuck
- will win if he’s able to hold the front
6- Tiz the Law
- clearly the best horse
7- Caracaro
- very good horse, lost to Country Grammer by a neck in last race
Recap
Emma: 6- Tiz the Law
George: 6- Tiz the Law
Tyler: 7- Caracaro
Niko: 3- Uncle Chuck
Lucas: 6- Tiz the Law