In the modern world of horse racing, betting on the sport has gradually become an exercise in gatekeeping and constantly steepening the learning curve. Any casual fan that looks at the Daily Racing Form now will immediately be confused, and this is by design; the people who already know how to read it stand a better chance of making money, and they’d rather keep it that way.
As techniques get more and more complex, the pastime becomes less and less fun for casual spectators, and I occasionally try to play a part in fixing that. In my personal effort to broaden the appeal of racing, I’ve introduced many of my friends to a world they know nothing about. I restrict them to big race days like this one, and I try my best to present it to them in a compelling way. After years of doing this, I’ve made a very interesting observation: Regardless of their knowledge, confidence, or level of initial interest, everyone loves the simple act of picking a horse and watching it run. By this point, it’s a universal phenomenon in my experience.
In preparation for this article, I asked 13 people if they were interested in participating. Even I was surprised when every single person said yes, that they were willing to share and publish their uninformed opinions in front of a potential audience of over 100 people. Across all three guest articles I’m publishing today, I asked 24 people to appear as guests, and all 24 accepted the offer readily. Having a stance is fun.
The format here is simple: I will introduce each person and describe their familiarity with horse racing, and they’ll introduce their pick and provide whatever explanation they chose to give. This article certainly has its highlights and lowlights, but hopefully it provides an element of lighthearted fun to one of the most important race days of the year.
For more serious guest analysis, make sure to check out the other two articles released today, featuring guest novices and more experienced players. As always, my thoughts on this race and many others will be included in my daily full card analysis.
Joan Moquin
Joan Moquin is my mother, and as a result, is very deserving of top billing in this article. She works as a middle school teacher in Bethpage, New York, and has described the morning drive from Oceanside to Bethpage with a creative and wide-ranging vocabulary over the years. Her favorite band is the Beatles, but interestingly, she most appreciates George Harrison as a solo artist. It must be a coincidence that she shares my interests in horse racing and sports stories featured in The Fordham Observer.
Unlike every other guest featured in this article, my mother actually knows what she’s talking about. However, upon being given the option between this article and the guest article for novices, she emphasized the need for a pressure-free environment. She sure has one, because after her very competent analysis, things go downhill fast.
Joan’s Winner: 6- Tiz the Law
Joan’s Bet: TRIFECTA BOX with the 6, Tiz the Law, the 2, Country Grammer, and the 3, Uncle Chuck
Joan’s Wild Cards: 4- Max Player and 7- Caracaro
1- First Line👎🏻
PROS:
- nice perigee through sire
- coming off a win @Saratoga on 7/29
- inside post
CONS:
- only win was close -by a neck
- long shot with 30-1 odds
- best Beyer Speed Figure -85
- 4 wraps in previous performances
- not impressed
2- Country Grammer👍🏻
PROS:
- superior jockey
- strong pedigree through sire
- best Beyer Speed Figure -96
- 2 prior wins
- 1st place Peter Pan Stakes
- inside post
CONS:
- Chad Brown wins somewhat cool @Saratoga 2020 -17%
- 4 wraps in previous races
3- Uncle Chuck👍🏻
PROS:
- a win by four lengths in Los Alamitos Derby
- solid Beyer Speed Figures -94/95
- solid pedigree through sire & dam
- 2 prior wins
- Bob Baffert @Saratoga 2020 -25%
CONS:
- Jockey L. Saez is a little cold as of late
4- Max Player👍🏻
PROS:
- J. Rosario -solid jockey
- best Beyer Speed Figure -92
- 2 prior wins
- strong 3rd in Belmont Stakes
- strong pedigree through sire
- Linda Rice @Saratoga 2020 -23%
5- Shivaree👎🏻
PROS:
- 3 prior wins
CONS:
- best performance was back on March 28
- back wraps in previous races
- no data on trainer @Saratoga 2020
- Beyer Speed Figures declining
- not impressed
6- Tiz the Law👍🏻
PROS:
- 5 previous wins
- strong Beyer Speed Figure -100
- Belmont Stakes winner
- BEAST of a horse
- NY-bred -sweet!
Cons:
- trainer has no wins @Saratoga 2020
7- Caracaro👎🏻
PROS:
- 1 prior win
- best Beyers Speed Figure- 96
- good pedigree through sire
- finished 2nd in Peter Pan
CONS:
- outside post
- not much data on FL trainer, G. Delgado @ Saratoga 2020
8- South Bend👎🏻
PROS:
- superior jockey
- best Beyer Speed Figure -94
- prior wins
- nice pedigree through sire
CONS:
- small stature
- Trainer Bill Mott @ Saratoga 2020- 9%
- outside post
- not impressed
Kristina Stevanovic
Kristina Stevanovic is a 20-year-old college student entering her junior year at Fordham University. She is pursuing a degree in psychology, and it shows in nearly every conversation she has. Music is one of her chief interests, and she’s been a very reliable guide into the modern world for a certain journalist that hasn’t quite moved past Elvis yet.
Kristina’s betting history consists of a single show bet made last month on a horse named Dancing Kiki, which happens to be a nickname she goes by. Dancing Kiki did indeed finish third that day at long odds, which makes Kristina a profitable bettor in every sense of the word. Of all the guest handicappers I’ve spoken to this week, no one approached the task with as much enthusiasm. Her picks, analysis, and writing are her own, as she refused help of any sort when making her conclusions. She did, however, accept the Daily Racing Form when it was offered, though I sense it only led to more frustration.
Kristina’s Pick: 6- Tiz the Law
Kristina: “The answer’s right there, if only you knew the language.” Patrick was right there; not only do I have no idea how to read these horse stats or whatever, but the font on this thing is so small I can’t even see what it says without zooming in three hundred percent on the sheet. Will I let this stop me from making an incredibly educated guess about this weekend’s 2020 Travers winner? Probably.
Upon first glance, I want to go with the horses with the most information under their names (God, I have not seen this many fractions since fourth grade), but that seems illogical. If we’re being honest here, I’m a sucker for an underdawg, and it feels as though the underdawg would have the least amount of “Font Size: 8” fractions beneath its name.
But is the underdawg actually going to win this thing? I don’t think so.
Patrick really talked up this race, so only the best horse should be winning if it’s as much of a hoot as this guy says it is. My gut tells me to resort to the horse’s names for the answer. Since that’s the case, I’m going with Tiz the Law. First of all, that’s the most badass name I’ve ever heard. Second, I dig the use of the “z” in place of the “s”, as well as the lack of apostrophe that begins the correct spelling of the word; ‘Tis the Law would not appear nearly as cool, gangster, or stoic. For these reasons, I have to go with Tiz the Law as the winner this Saturday. May the best horse win.
Edward Jarvis
Edward “Eddy” Jarvis is a student-athlete playing baseball at Northeastern University, and he’ll never let you forget it. After two redshirt years following an injury and then the pandemic, Eddy has appeared in exactly six official college baseball games, which is only six more than my total. He’s a proud graduate of Regis High School in New York City, and served as catcher and captain of the baseball team there. As a Manhasset native, he often joined me as one of the many LIRR commuters in school. We were a rather downtrodden collection of kids, even by Regis’ standards.
Despite his best efforts, Eddy has not yet been gripped by the world of horse race handicapping. He has been to Belmont several times and has even broken out the khaki shorts, but the Racing Form has not interested him as much as it has some of my other friends. He has, however, picked up very basic information, and I think he’s really made the most of it with his selections here. His picks were communicated via text, and I paraphrased his thoughts below.
Eddy’s Pick: 6- Tiz the Law
Other Predictions: A solid performance from the 2, Country Grammer and the 3, Uncle Chuck
Eddy knows exactly two trainers, Chad Brown and Bob Baffert, and was initially drawn to Country Grammer and Uncle Chuck as a result. “Gotta stick with my man Chad Brown,” he said immediately. However, after some reflection, he remembered that Tiz the Law was the horse that won the Belmont Stakes. “He’s a beast,” he recalled. Having watched that performance live, he concludes that there’s no three-year-old in the country that can beat him, and at even money on the morning line, he’s a steal.
Juliana Burke
Juliana is a 20-year-old college student from Stamford, Connecticut. She’s currently studying communications at Fordham University and is a member of too many extracurriculars for my liking. To name a few, she claims membership on the WFUV sports radio production team, an intramural soccer team, and the Fordham Dance Marathon. I don’t believe she was built to have free time, and she’s easily one of the more driven individuals I’ve encountered. She’s also a fan of Twix chocolate bars.
A few months ago, I chose Juliana as a partner for a sports broadcasting video project, in which I gave her a brief handicapping lesson. As someone with a dryer sense of humor, I needed an energetic, enthusiastic, and perhaps even eccentric foil to work alongside me. After a 15-minute lesson, I asked her to handicap a race herself, and within seconds, she chose “Big Package” because she’s a little (very) immature. She’s currently undefeated as an analyst.
Juliana’s Pick: 3- Uncle Chuck
Juliana: “Uncle Chuck, a very easy choice. An uncle is a safety net, someone who you turn to for help. Need a radio installed in your car? Call your uncle. Need some fried chicken? Call your uncle. Always reliable and will kick in when you need it most.”
Hugh Esterson
Hugh Esterson is a New York City resident entering his junior year at Duke University. He is a graduate of Regis High School, and on the baseball team, he served as a highly professional second baseman. I’ve recently gotten into auto racing, and as I’ve become more and more interested in Formula One, I’ve slowly come to terms with the fact that my good friend is a member of an elite motorsport family. I knew he was an elite something before, but I was happy to finally narrow it down after hearing him describe oddly personal connections with guys I’ve been watching on television. On an unrelated note, his family has a pool that he refuses to swim in.
Hugh and I have an unofficial pact that I will begin to navigate IndyCar, his first love, if he begins to explore horse racing. As a result, he’s begun the slow process of learning how to handicap, which is difficult because of his natural aversion to gambling. Slow steps.
Hugh’s Pick: 2- Country Grammer
Other Predictions: Strong showings from the 3, Uncle Chuck, and the 6, Tiz the Law
In the short time he’s spent trying to learn this game, Hugh has already made some key observations about horse racing. First, he recognized the importance of Bob Baffert in the sport, and as a result, initially looked at Uncle Chuck in this field. Then, he did some research and discovered the extent of Irad Ortiz’s talent as a rider. This made him consider Country Grammer. Then, he remembered hitting a very small exacta in the Belmont Stakes with Tiz the Law, and decided that these were the big three in the race. In the end, he chose to take a risk, reasoning that Ortiz will give Country Grammer a favorable trip from the inside post, good enough to upset the two titans to his outside.
Marissa Gootee
Marissa Gootee is a 20-year-old student entering her junior year at Fordham University. As the daughter of a Navy official, she moved between Florida, New Orleans, and Washington D.C. growing up. Her family eventually ended up back in Florida, settling in Gulf Breeze, a suburb outside Pensacola or the wasteland adjacent to a literal Petri dish. After some time pursuing a communications degree, she eventually sold out to The Man and began studying economics. Her chief interest is fashion, both in media and practice, as she’s also a talented seamstress.
Marissa knows nothing about horse racing, to the point that I’m not sure she knows they start from a gate. Her selection in the Belmont Stakes was Tap It to Win, and that’s affected much of her analysis for the Travers.
Marissa’s Pick: 6- Tiz the Law
Marissa: “I chose Tiz the Law, but only because Tap It to Win was my mans [in the Belmont] and if he beat him, I have no choice but to respect. Tap It to Win was supposed to have my back, but alas, Tiz the Law came out on top. For that, God bless and godspeed to the future winner of the Travers. You heard it here first folks.”
Thomas MacLeish
Thomas MacLeish hails from Lynbrook, New York, and is a recent graduate of Little Saints’ Pre-School in West Hempstead. He celebrated his fifth birthday last November, and his interests include LEGO, super heroes, and Nintendo. He’s technically my second cousin, and he will one day take over the world with his father, using nothing but a screw gun and duct tape.
Tommy has very little experience with the Daily Racing Form.
Tommy’s Pick: 7- Caracaro
After reading the field to him in order, I asked the five-year-old, “Alright Tom, of those names, which do you like the most?”
“Caracaro,” the five-year-old replied.
“OK great, and why do you like him?”
“Because I like cars.”
“And that word comes up twice there,” I suggested.
“Yeah, it does,” he said in agreement.
The Observer Crew
The final six guests in this piece are proud members of The Fordham Observer, the newspaper of Fordham College at Lincoln Center. They’re all highly skilled newspeople with little to no horse racing knowledge. However, like the guests that have come before them, their analyses range from alarmingly thoughtful to totally chaotic.
Owen Roche
Owen Roche is a rising senior at Fordham University, and in the 2019-20 school year, served as the editor-in-chief of The Fordham Observer, the publication for which I currently serve as the Sports & Health Editor. Whenever I begin to feel complacent in my abilities as a writer and editor, I read some of Owen’s material and immediately get back to work. He was an exemplary leader, despite his creepily obsessive Minecraft projects and the one time he cold-called me in a meeting to comment on a staff editorial.
Going into this exercise, I don’t believe Owen knew much about horse racing or any of the runners in this race. I will now allow him to fool you with an extremely thorough, well-researched analysis that hardly belongs in this somewhat flippant article.
Owen’s Pick: 7- Caracaro
Owen’s Equine Opine
I was informed that a standout lineup of three-year-olds (assumedly without adult supervision) are set to run around a track for our amusement and monetary gain this weekend. Upon further research, I’ve learned that the stakes are even higher than that — a cup, a blanket and a canoe are on the line. In a storied, impactful race such as this — in which every slight advantage counts — look not to the track or the horses for the x-factor sure to drive a horse across the finish line. Look to the stands.
As a Philadelphia sports fan, I know a thing or two about hometown crowds. Passionate Philly fans back home-grown underdogs to the dying breath. When the game’s on the line, the cheers, jeers and borderline fan interference from the fanatics in the stands can turn the tide of any competition. We booed Santa Claus himself and pelted him with snowballs. Any passionate hometown fan can relate: we just don’t like out-of-towners.
When the dust from Saturday’s 10 furlongs of fun finally clears, one would expect the hometown darling, born-and-bred New Yorker, even-money favorite to cruise to victory. In any other year, this is cake for Saratoga (and Sackatoga Stable)’s very own Tiz the Law, spurred on by the roaring adulation of both die-hard Saratoga locals and any other fan with half a brain.
This however, is no ordinary year. New York social distancing regulations will permit only a dozen licensed owners per horse to stand in for a record Travers Day crowd at the Saratoga Racetrack. Hopes of a rumored “Court of Law” cheering section a la Yankee Stadium’s “Judges Chambers” have fizzled — and with them go Tiz the Law’s hometown advantage.
It’s anyone’s race, and without fan support, we look for those with the most to prove. A chip on the shoulder is worth two in the hand, after all — something no one knows better than jockey Javier Castellano. Time and time again, the equine press has mocked his miserable record at the Travers, calling his six race wins “Flukey” and “A pretty lame all-time record.” Couple this with mount Caracaro’s desperate desire to get back into the Kentucky Derby running (and messy 2019 social media falling-out with Tiz the Law) and you have an underdog dynamic duo worth betting the house on.
Maddie Sandholm
Maddie Sandholm is a sophomore at Fordham University, and currently serves as Layout Editor on The Fordham Observer. She got her start on the newspaper doing layouts for the Sports & Health section, and her superiors quickly realized they had made a mistake, because she was far more talented than the rinky dink section she was working for. She was promoted to full layout editor soon after.
Maddie knows nothing about horse racing, and that’s about to become abundantly clear. However, she told some of her friends that she was going to be a guest, and one of them wrote a rap to celebrate the occasion. Now, the editor of Paddy’s Picks usually has a high standard for the content published on his site, and as a politically liberal but socially conservative individual, any form of amateur rap wouldn’t normally cut it for him. However, this article is mostly nonsense anyway, so at the very bottom of the page, readers can enjoy a Travers rap by a person I don’t know.
Maddie’s Pick: 8- South Bend
Maddie: The wonderful horse, South Bend, trained by S. Hough (or William I. Mott, that’s what a website said) and jockeyed by Jose L. Ortiz, is the obvious choice for the race at Saratoga this Saturday. South Bend comes to this race with thousands of wins behind him. South Bend was born in 1836 and subsequently trained in the Southern area of Bend, Oregon. The elevation of Bend, 3,623 feet, where over 100 years of training took place, allowed South Bend to produce more red blood cells and increase his VO2 max—the maximum rate of oxygen consumption measured during exercise—to over three times any of his competitors’. The Saratoga Race Course is at the low elevation of 305 feet, where the air will be more saturated with oxygen. This increase in oxygen, along with South Bend’s record level VO2 max and years of training, will allow him and Ortiz to speed past their competitors.
Jillian Rice
Jillian Rice is a rising junior at Fordham University, and is one of the few Classics majors living today. She is a copy editor on The Fordham Observer, and her job is essentially to make me look good. I wouldn’t consider myself the easiest writer to work with, but there are several people on that newspaper that I trust with my writing, and Jill is at the top of that list.
For all of her talents with the AP Stylebook, Jill knows nothing about horse racing. She also once thought that the word “homer” included in a baseball article was a reference to The Odyssey.
Jill’s Winner: 6- Tiz the Law
Jill: I believe that Tiz the Law will take the trophy (if there is one) because he/she/it was talked about as the shoo-in for the Belmont Stakes. So my legitimate vote is for Tiz the Law, but I have hopes for others as well. Max Player’s trainer is Linda Rice, no relation. However, she’s the only female trainer in the group, so go women empowerment and all that. She and Max should win because it’s Rice family solidarity—my mom used to have a horse, so this is some connection.
You might say that I, a grammar nerd, would love Country Grammer, but that spelling mistake is unforgivable, so my money’s not on Country Grammer. It’s not on anyone, but if I were to bet on one, I’d go with Tiz the Law and then Linda Rice.
Esmé Bleecker-Adams
On paper, Esmé Bleecker-Adams is a rising senior at Fordham University, and serves as the Assistant Photo Editor for The Fordham Observer. In reality, Esmé is probably the most hard-working person I’ve ever met. Her official job as photo editor seems to be a role she took on for fun after revamping the entire Layout section and taking over crossword duties. She’s also provided graphic design input for this website on several occasions, as if she didn’t have anything else going on.
Such is the grace of Esmé’s horse racing analysis that readers will momentarily forget she has no idea what she’s talking about.
Esmé’s Winner: 1- First Line
Esmé: Some obscure playwright once told me a rose by any other name would smell as sweet, but I happen to think there’s a lot of power in names, so much so that I am willing to call the winner of this race based on names alone.
First let me tell you who will not win this race. Country Grammer sounds like the name of the band that played at your parents’ wedding and charged them extra because their first dance song required knowledge of both major and minor chords. Uncle Chuck is the neighbor who is definitely not related to you but attends every family function and has a gift for saying things that will be followed by awkward silences. Max Player? About to play with your heart. Tiz the Law? Tiz a shame his litigation powers won’t help him on the racetrack.
So what name DO I like? First Line is my First Pick because not only does the phrase first-line mean the first resort, like first line of defense, but the name also alludes to a first place spot at the finish line, and that is the kind of manifesting that I’m here for.
Gillian Russo
Gillian Russo is a senior at Fordham University, and serves as the Online Editor for The Fordham Observer. As a member of the Fordham Dance Team, she’s the only other member of the newspaper that can identify a basketball when called upon. With some very solid connections, she’s also given me more Fordham sports leads than actual writers in my section.
Gil has no background knowledge in the world of horse racing, though she’s embraced her ignorance in a charming way.
Gil’s Winner: 6- Tiz the Law
Gil: My money’s on Tiz the Law. I love the way B. Tagg spelled its name with a Z — it’s edgy. Fresh. Cutting-edge. “Tis” would have been so stodgy, so old-timey. This is a horse for our time. We need a win from someone revolutionary like Tiz. Plus, if you spell the name backwards-ish, you get “Wal the Zit,” which, if you say it at lightning speed — the way I’m betting this horse is gonna run — kind of sounds like “Well, this is it.” This is it, Paddy. This is the winner. It’s all just so clear.
Grace Getman
Grace Getman is a junior studying at Fordham University, and is in charge of social media for The Fordham Observer. When she was Opinions Editor, we would often debate the relative importance of Sports & Health to the newspaper, a topic we disagreed on. Now, her job is to pester me about writing social media captions, and my not-job is to pretend I don’t see her messages.
I can’t really describe Grace’s analysis better than she did herself: “please tell patrick he doesn’t have to do anything with this because of how absolutely awful it is.”
Grace’s Winner: 1- First Line (?)
Grace: So many horses, so little time. Based on the name alone, I have no doubt that it’s going to be First Line that scores the winning touchdown, but R. Nicks is going to be in for a rough day because his horse, Shivaree, will simply be too nice to the other horses to win. But if you had to, I suppose it’s better to Uncle Chuck than to upchuck, but I promise that no one will Caracaro if you’re wrong about this race. Another horse that doesn’t stand a chance is South Bend, mainly because he’s stuck in Indiana and won’t be at the race. For the horses whose hooves will be pounding the pavement, watch out for Country Grammer, because I’ve heard he’s a Max Player. And before you forget, make sure all your bets are legal – Tiz the Law, after all!
Recap
Joan: 6- Tiz the Law
Kristina: 6- Tiz the Law
Eddy: 6- Tiz the Law
Juliana: 3- Uncle Chuck
Hugh: 2- Country Grammer
Marissa: 6- Tiz the Law
Tommy: 7- Caracaro
Owen: 7- Caracaro
Maddie: 8- South Bend
Jill: 6- Tiz the Law
Esmé: 1- First Line
Gil: 6- Tiz the Law
Grace: 1- First Line (?)
Because I owe Maddie Sandholm several favors, here’s the Travers rap written by her friend.
Pull up paid to the track
Might lose a stack
Could win some racks.
Tomorrow is old Saratoga
Taking shots Sharapova
School this kids Villanova
Classic horse like Seabiscuit
Rough like a triscuit
Might be ready to risk it
Have a big heart Secretariat
So many horses like a chariot
Love the game so I marry it
Bet on a trifecta
Spielberg I’m the directa
British man like skepta
I wrote a rap about horses
Got A’s in my Fordham courses
I’ll miss Fordham I hate divorces
If I had to nitpick here, I’d argue that the period used in the third line isn’t really necessary when absolutely no punctuation is used for the rest of the verse. Regardless, I’d like to thank this rogue, comma-averse poet for his anonymous contribution. This is never happening again.