The Go-To Second Opinion at the Track
The Breeders’ Cup is so well-timed to distract me from important work every year. After several weeks of almost nothing to do, it always comes along at a point when I’m as busy as possible.
Between work and my classes at Columbia, I wouldn’t have had enough time to release Paddy’s Picks analysis for the Breeders’ Cup this year. Fortunately, I did most of my analysis ahead of time, and the West Coast event gave me a few extra hours this morning to sleep before finalizing this copy.
If you can believe it, this is called “Dramatic Epic Cinematic,” the exact sort of song I was looking for going into the third part of 2022 Breeders’ Cup coverage on Paddy’s Picks. We’re looking at the big races now — the Mile, the Distaff, the Turf and finally the Classic featuring the unstoppable Flightline. These are the races that have the power to shock the racing world in more ways than one, and my guests and I have in-depth analysis on all four. Whether your Saturday thus far has been profitable or less fortunate, there are still plenty of chances to get ahead, so listen in with us and enjoy!
The song for this episode is “Jazz Winkle” by Eggy Toast. I’m not sure if it beats the banjo from yesterday’s episode, but it’s certainly an interesting way to begin Day 2 of Breeders’ Cup coverage on Paddy’s Picks. In this episode, my guests and I will be looking at the first five Breeders’ Cup races on Saturday’s card at Keeneland. This is our first look at older horses in this championship series, and there’s plenty to discuss, so settle in and enjoy!
Paddy’s Pick: 3- Chi Town Lady
Let’s try something new. Instead of doing separate analysis and guest contributions for this year’s Breeders’ Cup, I’ve decided to combine the two in a massive three-part podcast series. To navigate what is admittedly a massive first episode for Friday’s card, I’ve provided a sort of guide below.
For those of you wondering, the song is called “St. Louis Tickle,” and for those of you still here, welcome to the inaugural Paddy’s Picks podcast, as well as Day 1 of Breeders’ Cup coverage. For those of who you don’t know, my name is Patrick Moquin, and I’ve run Paddy’s Picks since 2020 as a way to combine my passions for writing and horse racing. Today, we’re trying something a little different.
Embrace the chaos. Some of the picks enveloped within are of significant value. Some are next to useless. For the biggest racing event of the year, I will leave it to the reader to discern meaning and credibility. Most importantly, I sincerely hope everyone enjoys the race.
Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 ¼ Miles on the Dirt
Isn’t that a city? I like the sound of it. Why did you name a horse that? Maybe it’s fast, so you don’t need a name to show that it’s fast.
Horse racing doesn’t handle expectations well. The problem from a sporting perspective is clear — horses don’t compete with the excitement of fans in mind. In many years, a nondescript claiming race at Monmouth may provide more of a thrill to fans than the Kentucky Derby. This puts the Breeders’ Cup, and specifically the Classic, in an awkward position as the culminating event of the season.
Sometimes, the race delivers. The two Derby winners hit the wire together when Ferdinand beat Alysheba in ’88. Cigar had the heart of a champion in ’96 but couldn’t repeat against giant killer Alphabet Soup. Awesome Again beat one of the best fields ever assembled on dirt in ’98. Zenyatta pulled off the unbelievable in ’09. When the race lives up to the hype, there’s nothing better.
The Breeders’ Cup Turf is arguably one of the toughest races on the card, but Paul Moquin and Patrick Moquin Sr. are up to the challenge. Between my father and uncle, bettors can feel secure that they are getting experienced second opinions for a race that few bettors could ever hope to figure out alone.
Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 ½ Miles on the Turf
I’m not picking any Euros 💶 this race. The grass will be too hard for them and just right for Rockemperor who is ready to go, along with Gufo, who’s just as ready. Japan will be there at the end with one of my faves Channel Maker. My original pick scratched so he could get in.
Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 1/2 Miles on the Turf
Is it a renaissance? After a long stretch of middling starts, he came back with the best performance of his career in a 15-1 upset of the G1 Turf Classic Invitational. In defeating fellow runners Gufo and Japan, he establishes himself as a contender from the East coast, but this is a whole different ball game.
It’s an interesting strategy by Richard Mandella to keep this gelding at lower stakes levels for most of the year, but it has been overwhelmingly profitable. He has won seven of 11 starts since 2020 and loves the Del Mar turf, but there’s little reason to suspect he’s prepared for this level of competition.
The Charles and Diana of our generation have agreed to grace Paddy’s Picks with analysis for the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. After nearly two years, Kristina has received a promotion from The Casual Bet to the Handicapping Roundtable, and she took full advantage by sending a single paragraph this morning. Niko’s dead end position within this publication remains unchanged,
Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt
11- Dunbar Road
I know Letruska is the obvious favorite here, and it’s the right choice, but I wouldn’t put all my money on her. I think she’ll be challenged by the 11, Dunbar Road, the 3, Malathaat, and the 8, Shedaresthedevil. I don’t think Letruska is safe of getting run down later in the race by any of these horses here, and if you’re looking for an underdog pick, I think you go with Dunbar Road. The field is tough, sure, but I think the 15-1 odds this morning are fair (and worth your money). Dunbar Road can keep up as we’ve seen in recent starts, and I don’t think today will be any different. 11 Dunbar Road, Del Mar, California. Lol.
Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt
Visually, this filly appears to be a promising up-and-comer for trainer Bob Baffert. In her first two graded stakes attempts in California, she powerfully took command at the top of the stretch and cruised home to easy victories, including one against fellow runner As Time Goes By. The problem is that she’s still a little outclassed and has not yet run this far in her short career. Seldom is a wait-and-see approach a winning strategy in the Breeders’ Cup.
