Pick Six Challenge: Guests Take On The Pennsylvania Derby

I think I like this idea. I hope you do too. But before I tell you about it, we need to talk about horse racing in Pennsylvania.

New York racing fans have a habit of disrespecting Parx Racetrack in Bensalem, a small town just outside Philadelphia. As one such fan, I believe that we often have good reason. In comparison to even the slowest day at Aqueduct Racetrack in the dead of January, racing at Parx is simply a step below in most cases. Fields rarely offer value, the facility itself is in need of a freshening and the track is often heavily biased and unhelpful for handicapping.

But for one weekend every year, Parx offers a card that could compete with the very best of them. Every September, Pennsylvania Derby Day invariably makes the small racetrack feel like a world-class venue. It’s the sort of event that gets my wheels turning, both as a handicapper and as your dutiful editor. 

With so many races of interest, particularly later in the card, I decided to introduce 10 of my most loyal guests to a brand new format. These guests picked their winners for six races on the Saturday card (Races 7-8 and 10-13). They were competing against one another but there was also another game afoot. I also made six picks.

When I asked my handpicked guests to agree to this new and considerably more strenuous format, I offered them prizes to be determined later for winning. I can now share those prizes. The person who finishes first overall in money earned based on six $2 win bets will receive a custom pin commemorating their victory and a temporary horse tattoo. Meanwhile, any guest handicapper who earns more money than me will receive a kooky horse pen and a grilled cheese sandwich.

Originally, I was going to introduce this new format in an article before race day, but with the exception of superhuman/super human Shaily Jani, none of the other nine guests submitted picks to me more than 24 hours in advance. This wasn’t overly distressing, as many of them demonstrated that they were actively thinking about the races and required as much time as possible to finalize their thoughts. Many of my guests are also extremely busy with work or school, and I was more than willing to give them as much time as they needed. The fact that they made time for my hijinks at all is a privilege. The fact that it became a rather lively competition was a bonus.

To save myself a little space, I’ve attempted to distill all of my guests’ picks and analyses into individual graphics, and as I write this, I have no idea how they’ll appear to readers on the web page. If they work, I’ll continue to do them for multi-race competitions like this. If not, it can be a funny callback joke for everyone as I continue to flounder in my self-taught graphic design lessons.

Before we begin looking at people’s picks, two guests who were originally scheduled to compete in this Parx edition of the Paddy’s Picks Pick Six Challenge had to withdraw due to scheduling issues.

Emma Moquin, my younger sister, was a shoo-in for this competition as one of the most knowledgeable handicappers on the website. But with an overfilled slate at Penn State and plenty more things on her mind, she was unfortunately unable to look at all six races and withdrew. On one hand, this gave everyone else a far better chance of winning, but we look forward to seeing her again soon.

George McKnight, my wily former cellmate, was a similarly intimidating competitor that could not thoroughly handicap the races because of work. He was listed as a maybe early in the week and I haven’t heard from him since. George believed in the green light, the orgastic future that year by year recedes before us. It eluded us then, but that’s no matter — to-morrow we will run faster, stretch out our arms farther… . And one fine morning —

We here at Paddy’s Picks eagerly await his return. He’ll receive a hero’s welcome when the time comes.

Parx, September 23, 2023

Race 7, Goodwood Cup Stakes (G3) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 ½ Miles on the Dirt

Winner: 6- Next (1-5, $2.60)

Race 8, Turf Monster Stakes (G3) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Five Furlongs on the Turf

Winner: 2- Nobody Listens (3-1, $8.20)

Race 10, Parx Dirt Mile Stakes for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 Mile on the Dirt

Winner: 4- Nimitz Class (6-1, $15)

Race 11, Gallant Bob Stakes (G2) for Three-Year-Olds, Six Furlongs on the Dirt

Winner: 4- Damon’s Mound (9-5, $5.60)

Race 12, Cotillion Stakes (G1) for Three-Year-Old Fillies, 1 1/16 Miles on the Dirt

Winner: 2- Ceiling Crusher (3-1, $8.60)

Race 13, Pennsylvania Derby (G1) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt

Winner: 3- Saudi Crown (Even, $4.20)

Editor’s Note: While I’m aware that real-life handicapping also includes money wagered, I find that both unnecessary and overly negative for this exercise. In principle, everyone is betting the same hypothetical amount of $12 ($2 per race), so if you would really like to understand this competition in terms of profit (or lack thereof), simply subtract $12 from each person’s total winnings, listed below and at the end of the article.

Patrick Moquin

Hey there. Believe it or not, I’ve never put myself in one of these articles before. But being the man to beat allows my guests to get an additional prize in this format, and I like the idea of it. I don’t think you and I really need a formal introduction at this point, however, so we can move on to my flawless analysis.

Total Winnings: $15.00 (three wins)

Overall Finish: 3/10

I’m pretty content with my debut effort in the Pick Six Challenge and feel that I gave my guests a very reasonable target. My biggest error was failing to look closely enough at Gunite, as I should have seen him as a much weaker favorite than he was at a mile. Nautical Star and Occult were good prices to chase after but neither landed, keeping me at a very small profit after six races. Did anyone beat me?

Emily Ellis

Emily entered the Pick Six Challenge late as a substitute for Emma and George. Replacing those two is an immensely challenging task, especially since Emily has never made any effort to understand horse racing. That being said…

Total Winnings: $16.80

Overall Finish: 2/10

Did She Beat Pat? Yes! By $1.80!

With less time than everyone else and even less logic, Emily found two very solid winners that put her just above my mark to beat. Imagine if My Imagination had made up 25 lengths to beat Next? As a reward for beating me, Emily will be one of two guests to receive a kooky horse pen and a grilled cheese. She more than earned it for her eager response.

Niko Konstantellis

Niko is known as the king of value, a gambler who would rather find the price than win with chalk. And yet, when given the opportunity to compete in a Paddy’s Picks format that obviously lends itself to value betting, he changed his strategy entirely.

Total Winnings: $6.80

Overall Finish: T4/10

Did He Beat Pat? No. He lost by $8.20.

In order for Niko to come close to winning this event, at least five of his six chalky selections would have had to win. Instead, only Next and Saudi Crown came through while the rest fell to bigger prices. Niko will get an invitation to compete in events like this in the future, and one can only hope that he returns to his old ways.

Shaily Jani

Shaily, who submitted her picks well, well before any other guest, deserves a prize for her promptness alone. Unfortunately, it’s hard to come up with prize ideas. I’ll let her know if I come up with anything, but in the meantime, let’s take a look at her unhinged handicapping.

Total Winnings: $0.00

Overall Finish: T9/10

Did She Beat Pat? No. No she didn’t.

Let’s look on the bright side: Pretty Mischievous was a very solid pick, as she nearly won the Cotillion as a credible favorite. Her self-assessment was extremely conceited, but it also guided her to her best idea. Unfortunately, there were also some real stinkers in this bunch. Shaily will recover and make her triumphant return soon.

Kristina Stevanovic

After days of painstaking deliberation, which she somehow managed to fit into her extremely busy work schedule, Kristina provided all of her picks Saturday afternoon. She didn’t provide any reasoning, claiming that it was all in her head and that it made sense. That’s enough assurance for me.

Total Winnings: $4.20

Overall Finish: 6/10

Did She Beat Pat? No, she lost by $10.80.

Kristina adopted a very sensible strategy, siding with bigger prices in the hopes of landing more money with fewer wins. Unfortunately, none of her value picks landed, but I think it’s much better to take the risks and miss than lose with a bunch of favorites. Like Niko. Idiot.

Courtney Brogle

By some miracle, Courtney actually had some time to spare this week to compete in another Paddy’s Picks competition. As some readers may remember, she won the Paddy’s Picks February Invitational, but still has not received her custom horse drawing or kooky horse pen. I actually have the pen — the drawing is holding up the operation.

Total Winnings: $2.60

Overall Finish: T7/10

Did She Beat Pat? No, she lost by $12.40.

Though her winnings don’t suggest that she was all that successful, Courtney’s analysis reveals that she was actually rather sharp. Five top three finishes demonstrates good form, even if they only led to one win. Luck may not have been on her side on this occasion, but competitors who underestimate her in the future would be making a grave error.

Chris Murray

Chris is back at Fordham now, where he has reignited his baseball career, hitting every batter from here to Westchester. A doubleheader against the local elementary school was particularly ugly. I’m giving him some flack here, but Chris delivered some very earnest analysis and deserves some props.

Total Winnings: $6.80

Overall Finish: T4/10

Did She Beat Pat? No. He lost by $8.20.

Besides a pair of bookend wins, tying him with Niko, Chris zigged when he should have zagged in this challenge. Roses for Debra and Gunite turned out to be the vulnerable favorites of the bunch, while low-priced contenders in the G2 Gallant Bob and G1 Cotillion came home first. Chris definitely had the right idea, mixing value with easy money, but the pieces didn’t fall into place.

Owen Roche

Owen, Courtney and I were all in the same place when the races were occurring, which gave me the rare opportunity to subject my model-citizen friends to off-track gambling. It’s significantly more fun to watch the races with company though, especially when that company is actively trying to defeat me for unknown prizes.

Total Winnings: $20.60

Overall Finish: 1/10

Did She Beat Pat? Yes! By $5.60!

After a slow start, Owen tacked two wins together to amass a small lead over his competitors. Nimitz Class, who defeated heavy favorite Gunite, ended up being the biggest price be could have found. Emily nearly stole the win away from him when Dreamlike flew home second in the Pennsylvania Derby, but Owen hung on to take this publication’s first Pick Six Challenge. The pin, tattoo, horse pen, and grilled cheese are his.

Maddie Sandholm

Maddie took a risky strategy in her first Pick Six Challenge. I’m not referring to her handicapping strategy, which was consistent with her typically entertaining efforts. I’m instead referring to her choice to send picks for each race shortly before their respective post times. Naturally, she forgot to continue sending picks, though she eventually sent the last four after the races ended. Those four will not count toward the competition (even if it’s rather clear that she didn’t cheat), but they will be included for the vibes. She also said that she intends to send analysis for those picks eventually, so readers are welcome to come back to this article later in the week for that update.

UPDATE (Wednesday, 9/27): In some fun role reversal, I’ve updated Maddie’s graphic to include her additional analysis.

Total Winnings: $0.00

Overall Finish: T9/10

Did She Beat Pat? No, she lost by… one moment. $15?

In the time she gave herself, Maddie picked some excellent colors. I’m especially partial to navy blue and gold. With nearly any of her picks, most of which were prohibitive long shots, she could have won enough money to take the entire event. Unfortunately, none of her picks got closer than third, and that’s counting the races she cheated on. 

Lucas Ludgate

I think this Pick Six Challenge has really brought me and Lucas closer together. I feel like I really know him now. After a brief FaceTime call Thursday to establish his handicapping timeline, he delivered his picks Saturday morning in the exact sort of horse racing conversation that I appreciate.

Total Winnings: $2.60

Overall Finish: T7/10

Did She Beat Pat? No, he lost by $12.40.

Il Miracolo would have been a massive bailout in the Pennsylvania Derby, but unlike a few of his competitors, Lucas couldn’t pull off the second half of the bookend. Next won him a little money off the bat and his other picks, while inventive, didn’t come home to score in the slop at Parx. Despite some tough results, he can hold his head high for now.

Full Order of Finish

1- Owen Roche ($20.60)

2- Emily Ellis ($16.80)

3- Patrick Moquin ($15)

4- Niko Konstantellis ($6.80)

4- Chris Murray ($6.80)

6- Kristina Stevanovic ($4.20)

7- Courtney Brogle ($2.60)

7- Lucas Ludgate ($2.60)

9- Shaily Jani ($0)

9- Maddie Sandholm ($0)

As the overall winner, Owen Roche will win a custom pin and temporary horse tattoo. He, along with Emily Ellis, will also win a kooky horse pen and a grilled cheese. The remaining plebeians win nothing.