Handicapping Roundtable: BC Filly and Mare Turf

My two prize pupils team up here for some solid analysis of the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf. I’ve been a fan of Emma for as long as I’ve known her, and ever since Niko drunkenly fell out of that bush and asked me for change all those years ago, he’s been a steadfast friend as well.

Race 7

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf (G1) for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, 1 ⅜ Miles on the Turf

1- Going to Vegas

Niko:  I don’t hate Going to Vegas because of the jockey trainer combo. My concern with this horse is that’s she’s only raced at this distance once. It was a year ago, but it was one of her slower races. Now, she’s gotten better since that point, but can she race this well at that distance? read more

Full Analysis: 2021 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf

Race 7

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf (G1) for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, 1 ⅜ Miles on the Turf

1- Going to Vegas

She’s now a G1 stakes winner and seems to be rounding into form at the right time, but I have serious doubts about the quality of the field she wired in the Rodeo Drive last time out. Her best chance here is to run this field off their feet, which actually doesn’t seem impossible but is also less likely than it was last time out. 

2- Pocket Square (GB)

Beyond the name recognition of Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz, issues abound for this runner. She seems a step slow against these and lacks significant class as an overqualified G3 winner last time out. Moreover, she rarely stretches out in distance and her one attempt at 1 5/16 miles in Europe last year was discouraging. There are better options. read more

Handicapping Roundtable: BC Dirt Mile

Two retired high school baseball players. Two talented writers with a roughly equivalent passion for The Fordham Observer. Two quirky people with their fair share of misadventures. One Big Ass horse race. Buckle in folks.

Race 6

Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, One Mile on the Dirt

George McKnight

Hi all. It’s been quite some time since my last feature on the Paddy’s Picks blog. I’m glad to be back covering the Breeder’s Cup. I’m analyzing the Big Ass Fans Dirt Mile. Not the greatest name, but what can you do? Anyway, the post time of this race is 4:19 on Saturday, Nov. 6. Eight horses three years and older are posted to compete for a million dollar purse.  read more

Handicapping Roundtable: BC Filly and Mare Sprint

From my mother, Joan Moquin: It’s that time of year again when the air turns crisp, Belmont weather requires a jacket and hot toddy to endure the day’s card and all eyes turn to sunny California for the Breeder’s Cup.

From my sister, Emma Moquin: Very curious. I put Bella Sofia on top for that race, which is a hot take, but I couldn’t pick Gamine for the 1000th time in my life.

Race 4

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt read more

Full Analysis: 2021 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint

Race 5

Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Five Furlongs on the Turf

1- Glass Slippers (GB)

The reigning champion in this race has been a little flat in 2021, finishing third in three races in Europe. Trainer Kevin Ryan gave her a similar schedule to the one from 2020 to prepare her, but she hasn’t been nearly as sharp. Her win last year was more a result of fortunate circumstances than her ability, and she’s an easy one to fade this time around.

2- Emaraaty Ana (GB)

My technique in Breeders’ Cup races is to find a runner rounding into condition, and this gelding seems razor sharp. His most recent performance in the Betfair Sprint Cup was his first G1 win and he won it with a career-best 120 Timeform Rating. He seems a little more comfortable at six furlongs but has also been very effective at five. I would love to know how she handles turns, but the fact that that’s the primary concern is an encouraging sign. read more

Full Analysis: 2021 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint

Any real reader of Paddy’s Picks can predict the direction that I’m going in for this one. But stick around anyway; I’ve been told that I’m at my most entertaining when I’m not trying to be. I won’t even take up too much of your time — there’s not much to go over here.

Reigning champion Gamine has managed to scare away most of her competition, and if she loses, nearly every multi-race bet in the country will collapse on the first leg. For those seeking value, it’s probably best to skip this one and watch. read more

Casual Bet: BC Juvenile Turf

For the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, the final race of Breeders’ Cup Friday, two veteran guests are being joined by two newcomers making their official debuts. My excitement is palpable as this formidable quartet tackles one of the toughest races on the card.

In nearly two years, Grace Getman and Esme Bleecker-Adams have grown into vaguely unfamiliar horse racing analysts before readers’ eyes. Meanwhile, Corbin Gregg and Kreena Vora are brand new contributors, unsure of their place on this website but eager to learn the ways of the sport. read more

Casual Bet: BC Juvenile Analysis

The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile is an important race every year, as it gives racing fans a very early picture of the possible Kentucky Derby contenders the following year. To properly cover this event in all its glory, here are the thoughts of three people who don’t know what they’re talking about.

Matt Ludington makes his debut on Paddy’s Picks after years of ignorance about its existence. The same hard-working, intelligent pre-med student who thought that The Observer was a sports-only publication is as new to the idea of Paddy’s Picks as he is to the sport of racing itself. Double the confusion, double the fun. read more

Casual Bet: BC Juvenile Fillies Turf Analysis

This is admittedly a crowded article, but it’s simply a testament to the enthusiasm my Fordham Observer colleagues bring to the sport of racing. Unlike almost every other guest article on Paddy’s Picks this weekend, this has absolutely no intrinsic value as an analytic piece. But damn it if it doesn’t have style.

Maddie Sandholm, the Layout Editor/Assistant Sports Social Media Editor/Contributing Writer of The Fordham Observer, returns with prose that betrays her background in visual arts. Creative Director Roxanne Cubero’s prose is… also good. Meanwhile, Opinions Editor Clara Gerlach, Copy Editor Emily Ellis, and News Editor Allie Stofer all make exceedingly promising debuts as valuable contributors to a very silly premise. read more

Casual Bet: BC Juvenile Fillies Analysis

To properly understand the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies this year, the input of these three guests is paramount. In fact, missing this article may account for thousands in losses for anyone naive enough to overlook it. All three guests stayed up for nights on end deciphering this puzzle, and their findings are nothing short of astounding.

At this point, any loyal Paddy’s Picks reader should be familiar with Jill “Rice Dicer” Rice and Gillian Russo, who have been enthusiastic guests on this website since its inception. Their work is readily available across the majority of my past big race coverage, and their talents in the racing world and in all of their other efforts are common knowledge. read more