It’s strange and frustrating that the Breeders’ Cup Classic will not end this year’s 14-race event due to NBC programming changes. A few scratches in the card also cheapen races that would have been stacked otherwise. But the deeper this card goes, the more exciting it gets.
While the Classic this year is a blast in its own right despite Arcangelo’s withdrawal, I believe the Turf will steal the show. It is, without exaggeration, one of the most impressive fields I’ve ever seen in the United States in my lifetime and is almost mandatory for every fan of the sport to watch.
The less time I spend chatting, the more likely this article clocks in at less than 10,000 words, a limit I regularly surpass in these types of articles. I hope you all bear with me as I try to give you thorough analysis for the card ahead. If I get excited and begin to ramble, I hope you forgive me. As I did in yesterday’s article, I will analyze every horse in each race in post position order and provide my top four at the end of each race. Let’s go nuts.
Santa Anita, Race 3
Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 Mile on the Dirt
Post Time: 2:30 p.m. ET
1- Stage Raider
A mile is definitely the right distance for this horse, but I’m not sure if he’s ready for primetime. After leaving Chad Brown’s barn, he actually took a nice step forward to win an ungraded stakes at Ellis Park. He followed up that effort with a place finish in the G3 Ack Ack behind fellow runner Zozos. He could make some noise underneath, but it’s hard to see him as a win candidate.
2- Practical Move (SCRATCHED)
Practical Move died Tuesday from a cardiac event. It’s a terrible circumstance and will cast a shadow over this race.
3- Cody’s Wish
We all know him. He hasn’t been quite as sharp lately. It might not matter.
4- Zozos
This colt has existed in my periphery ever since he ran in the Kentucky Derby last year. He’s carved out a nice living at this mile-long distance but hasn’t really tried to take down any big fields yet. This is a massive test, but after a few scratches, he’s one of the few candidates left who can beat Cody.
5- Charge It
It’s a shame that this colt hasn’t been able to run back to that massive win in the G3 Dwyer last year. Still, he has had his moments since then, chiefly a crushing win in the G2 Suburban back in July. Shortening up to a mile is clearly Todd Pletcher’s idea to get him back in form after two dull efforts in the G1 Whitney and G2 Woodward. He’ll need something close to his best here.
6- Skippylongstocking
This charming colt makes his mark at the lowest level of stakes competition, which is highly respectable for a horse of his caliber. Unfortunately, a wire-to-wire win in the G2 Charles Town Classic doesn’t fill me with profound confidence.
7- Algiers (Ire) (SCRATCHED)
I can’t understate how cool this horse is or how disappointing it is that he’s scratched.
8- Shirl’s Bee
He’s so peculiar. One of just two three-year-olds in the race, he has just three career starts and one in the United States. That ungraded stakes at Churchill Downs was probably too far for him, and all we have to go on besides that are a maiden win and a place finish in the G3 UAE 2000 Guineas at Meydan. It’s almost impossible to trust him.
9- National Treasure
I’ve said all year that this colt was not as good as his Preakness win would suggest, and that angle has been very profitable for me. He hasn’t won since, leading Baffert to cut him back in distance for this start. I’ll side against him again.
Order: 3 4 5 1
This race could have been much better.
Santa Anita, Race 4
Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1) for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, 1 ¼ Miles on the Turf
Post Time: 3:10 p.m. ET
1- In Italian (GB)
This Chad Brown runner has never finished outside the top three in 13 career starts, so she obviously deserves respect. She lost her last two starts in photo finishes as the heavy favorite, but her speed figures remain high. We know where she’ll be early, as she has only failed to gain the early lead once in her career. I have to wonder if she’s a little more comfortable at a mile, but she did finish second in this race last year and figures as a contender again.
2- Warm Heart (Ire)
This filly has only had one poor start in her last six, winning the other five in some rather impressive duels. Her last two starts at 1 ½ miles have been especially sharp, as she entered competition against older horses without losing a step from a visual standpoint. She may take a lot of money for a three-year-old, but it’s hard to say she doesn’t deserve it.
3- With The Moonlight (Ire)
Charles Appleby should never be dismissed too quickly, even though this filly hasn’t necessarily been the best in his stable as of late. After a pair of wins in the UAE to begin 2023, she has since lost to fellow runners In Italian and Fev Rover in separate North American races. She also took a beating in her return to Europe in the G2 Dahlia. The primary issue is that she simply hasn’t taken a major step forward from three to four, putting her on the back foot against familiar rivals.
4- Moira
This filly was a serious contender in this race last year and made up late ground to finish fifth. Since then, she has never finished out of the money despite earning just one win in 2023. Trainer Kevin Attard has been patient with her this year, putting her in weaker company at Woodbine and allowing her to pick up steam throughout the season. She does not enter this race with as much standing as she had last year, but she can still make some noise on her best day.
5- Win Marilyn (Jpn)
There are some scary Japanese horses later in this card, but this one is trickier than she is threatening. If the mare can run back to her win last December in the G1 Hong Kong Vase, she can be a serious danger in this field. In three races this year, however, she hasn’t come close to recapturing that form. Back-to-back ninth-place finishes in Japan don’t set her up well here.
6- Inspiral (GB)
For the life of me, I don’t understand why this filly isn’t trying the Mile. She hasn’t run at any distance besides a mile since September 2021 and she has thrived for the most part. Her two most recent starts at the G1 level, including a win against the boys, have been brilliant. There’s absolutely nothing to criticize about her current form. But the distance is a question by necessity, and it makes her a little hard to take at a short price.
7- Lindy (Fr)
After three straight losses to the same horse in France, this filly packed it up and headed to the States. In two starts for trainer Brendan Walsh, she appears to be going in the right direction again. She took a nice step forward in the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup to finish second with a nice rally. The horse she lost to that day, Mawj, is a potential favorite in the BC Mile. She’ll have to take another small step forward to contend and might drift up on the toteboard, but there’s upside.
8- Fev Rover (Ire)
This mare is going to take some attention because of her nearly unflinching consistency. In five races this year, she has earned the same 99 BSF on four occasions, failing to fire just one time in the G2 Canadian. She has run well enough to win three of those starts and she’s firmly in the running here. I just wonder if she needs to be able to improve to win.
9- Didia (Arg)
This mare has won a lot in her career, which began in Argentina before she moved to the East Coast of the United States and worked her way up the ladder from there. She has only made one G1 attempt in the U.S. and lost that effort, her first defeat since September 2021. That being said, her runner-up finish was well-earned that day and was strong enough for her to receive consideration in this race. She received a useful prep over this track when she won the G2 Rodeo Drive last time out, and she could improve in her second start off the layoff.
10- McKulick (GB)
This filly is a menace on the New York circuit, as she doesn’t often venture beyond lower level stakes races. She fits in perfectly at that level, but her most recent G1 attempts have been less successful. Chad Brown will undoubtedly have her ready to go and Irad Ortiz isn’t wasting his time, but she will have to deliver a career-best performance at a new track.
11- Lumiere Rock (Ire)
This filly lost to the same horse that kicked fellow runner Lindy out of France earlier this year, but it’s nice to see her rounding into form while stepping up in class. In a busy three-year-old season, she has been swimming in extremely deep waters and held her own, though wins have been a little hard to come by. A nice showing in the G2 Blandford does provide some reason to hope, and a show finish against older horses in the G1 Prix de l’Opera is nice to see as well. If anything, this could be a small step down in class in many ways.
12- State Occasion (GB)
This European long shot has never won a graded stakes race overseas and only tried her first G1 last month. She finished fifth in the G1 Prix de l’Opera, finishing behind fellow runner Lumiere Rock, at 27-1 odds. Her form is a bit of a mess but she does seem to like a firmer turf, which probably inspired trainer Ralph Beckett to make the trip with her. There’s a little to like.
Order: 7 6 1 11
I think Lindy (Fr) is quietly a contender in this field after an encouraging start in the G1 QEII Cup last time out. The distance is a mild issue but she embraced the extra eighth in October and could succeed stretching out a little further based on that performance. Inspiral (GB) seems far better suited to the BC Mile, but there’s nothing to fault her on regarding performance. She has to be included in exotic bets and is also the likeliest winner. In Italian (GB) is going to try to steal this one, something she has done many times in the past. There’s a chance she’s good enough, but I’m willing to take a shot against her. Lumiere Rock (Ire) scares me at a price, as she has run just as well as others in this field and seems underappreciated for her efforts.
Santa Anita, Race 5
Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt
Post Time: 3:50 p.m. ET
1- Goodnight Olive
She inexplicably disappeared in a G1 at Churchill Downs over the summer and lost a monster race to Echo Zulu in the G1 Ballerina, but otherwise, this mare has been flawless in 2023. The reigning Breeders’ Cup Champion has been had another brilliant campaign and is a deserving favorite despite the layoff.
2- Clearly Unhinged
This three-year-old is a very solid runner and could take up more space in this division going forward. As things are now, however, she’s a little out of her league.
3- Eda
She’s a speedy filly and it won’t be surprising if she’s near the front early on. Despite taking nearly a year off and missing several more months in 2023, she began her four-year-old campaign with three consecutive victories while consistently improving. She took a noticeable step back in the G3 Chillingsworth last time out, but there was so much speed in that field that she never got the chance to settle into the race. I wouldn’t count her out for a minor prize in this tamer field.
4- Matareya
Besides Echo Zulu, this filly is the only horse to win a race against Goodnight Olive since March 2021. That win back in May will undoubtedly earn her some attention on the tote board, but her inconsistency will be a drawback as well. She has never been particularly sharp off of layoffs and hasn’t raced since August, but it’s also possible that she’s coming into form and will benefit from this time off specifically. I don’t see her playing spoiler this time, but a minor prize is certainly possible.
5- Kirstenbosch
This filly is a rare late-closing sprinter and she received picture perfect conditions last time out. Usually, the John Sadler trainee does well enough to get up for a minor prize, but in the G3 Chillingsworth, more than half the field rushed to the lead on a track that was favoring closers. She cleaned up to win by nearly two lengths, though her speed figure was likely downgraded to reflect her previous form. I can’t see her getting a similar setup out of this field, nor can I see her competing in earnest at the G1 level.
6- Meikei Yell
Can Japanese turf runners succeed in dirt sprints? That’s the question we try to answer here, as this import has absolutely no dirt form to speak of and hasn’t won in over a year. She is rounding into form, as her fifth-place finish in mixed company in the G1 Sprinters was her best performance in some time. She may be worth a $2 novelty bet, but there’s too much going on to seriously trust her at any price.
7- Society
She’s a serious spoiler candidate to fellow runner Goodnight Olive, though I don’t love that she’s taking nearly the exact same layoff going into this race. In two races over the summer, this filly was dominant while overwhelming a pair of inferior fields at Ellis Park and Charles Town. In a way, it feels like Steve Asmussen is trying an old school way of preparing his horse for this race. Getting away from G1 competition and cutting her back to her preferred distance has done wonders for her, but now it’s time to come back and face some contenders. She’s going to have to fight for the early lead, but if she’s out there alone for any reason, the race might be over early.
8- Three Witches
This filly needed five tries to clear a low conditional allowance level at Gulfstream and improved to win a G3 stakes in her very next start. She’s coming along way, way, way too fast to be ready for this spot.
9- Yuugiri
I have to imagine that this filly has been a bit of a headache for trainer Rodolphe Brisset. She’s shown so much talent at different points in her career, but random regression and missteps have been common as well. She’s rounding into form coming into this race and won the G2 TCA last time out, but she’ll need a little more to take down the very best in this field.
Order: 1 9 7 4
I know Goodnight Olive is mortal, but I can’t find a way to beat her either. Yuugiri is going into this race with multiple preps, but I don’t believe she’ll be quite sharp enough to outfinish the favorite. Society is an obvious candidate to run the field off their feet, but Eda will be at the front too and bother her fresh off a layoff. Matareya has defeated Olive before but only did so with a 97 BSF.
Santa Anita, Race 6
Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 Mile on the Turf
Post Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
1- Shirl’s Speight
It’s plain to see that this horse has seen better days. Winless in nine starts since April 2022, he figures as a prohibitive long shot. There’s always an angle though. In this race last year, he almost pulled off a shocking 55-1 upset, finishing second with a 103 BSF. The pattern of his form this year is almost identical to last year, as he started the season slow but has gradually improved with each start. A fourth-place finish in the G1 Dubai Turf is nothing to sneeze at either. I’d be very careful before I tossed him again.
2- Gina Romantica
This filly earned a king-sized win in the G1 First Lady last time out, improving to defeat In Italian, a potential favorite in the BC F&M Turf. Before that race, she wouldn’t have any stake here whatsoever, and some might argue she still doesn’t. It did appear that she was aided in that race by a closer-friendly track, but if the pace is right here and she can run somewhere close to that 105 BSF, a minor prize is possible.
3- Casa Creed
He’s such a cool horse, undoubtedly a miler and a mainstay in this division. After a surprisingly successful trip to Saudi Arabia in February, he has stretched back out to a mile and immediately returned to his winning ways. His one turf attempt at Santa Anita was unsuccessful and he struggled in the 2021 running of this race at Del Mar, but he’s a pro and deserves a look.
4- Win Carnelian (Jpn)
This six-year-old is clearly a force on the low-grade stakes circuit in Japan, but his attempts to step up in class have been profoundly unsuccessful. He was no match for fellow runner Songline in the G1 Yasuda Kinen, putting him in a difficult position despite some improvement in a G2 at 1 ⅛ miles in Tokyo last month.
5- Lucky Score
In the G1 Woodbine Mile two back, this colt finished behind fellow runner Shirl’s Speight, who in turn got dusted by fellow runner Master of the Seas. He has never won a G1 race and seems completely dependent on a hot pace. He might get one in this race, but the waters are still very deep.
6- Mawj (Ire)
This three-year-old filly has won four straight races on three different continents, a great feather in her cap going into the Breeders’ Cup. I believe it was a wise decision for trainer Saeed bin Suroor to bring her to Keeneland last month. She showed that she can handle a version of the American turf by winning the G1 QEII Cup. Santa Anita will be even firmer and she has not yet faced older rivals, but her versatile speed is sure to come in handy.
7- Masteroffoxhounds
This horse simply can’t seem to get the job done. With just four wins in 26 starts, he has always been able to get in the mix regardless of the level of racing. He has also managed to secured a few show finishes at long odds, making him a scary runner in these sorts of races. I feel safe ruling him out for a win, however.
8- Du Jour
Bob Baffert has finally discovered this gelding’s true identity as a miler. In a 2023 campaign solely focused on this distance, he has gradually improved and finally broke through with a win in the G2 Del Mar Mile. The 102 BSF he earned that day actually fits in rather well with the Americans in this field and familiarity with the Santa Anita turf helps too. The price might be right here.
9- Astronomer
After almost two years off, this gelding returned in July and was pretty useless in an optional claimer. He cut back to a mile and cleared that condition before trying his first graded stakes and finishing second in the G2 City of Hope. He’s coming along very fast, but he also seems to appreciate the Santa Anita turf. Ryan Moore takes the uncharacteristic mount, adding to the intrigue surrounding the long shot. Expect him near the front early.
10- Songline (Jpn)
This mare has been a warrior on the Japanese turf scene for years, consistently battling the likes of Sodashi for multiple seasons. In a strange way, she seemed to outgrow sprint distances and had a rough spell before trainer Toru Hayashi stretched her out to a mile for good. She has been brilliant since, winning two races with career-best Timeform ratings and coming up just short in a photo finish off a layoff last month. It’s hard to be better prepared for this race and she has the goods.
11- Kelina (Ire)
This filly faced older horses for the first time in July and it was like she hit a wall. Trainer Carlos Parias-Laffon didn’t lose faith, however, and continued to enter her in G1 races. His efforts seemed fruitless until October, when she improved dramatically to defeat superhorse Kinross in the G1 Prix de la Foret at 27-1 odds. I have no clue what to make of that performance, but I can say that it’s not the only reason she’s here. It’s abundantly clear in her form that she prefers firmer turf courses, which she hasn’t had many opportunities to race over in Europe. She might be bet more than I’d like, but she deserves a little respect coming off a massive victory.
12- Exaulted (SCRATCHED)
13- More Than Looks
This closer has never appeared in a G1 race, and up until his last appearance in the Jefferson Cup, he had never really earned a speed figure that suggested he belonged at this level. Without any experience against older horses, the challenges reach a point where a win in this position becomes very difficult to imagine.
14- Master of the Seas
Charles Appleby is the King of the American Import, as this gelding has transformed from a fairly average European stakes runner to a star. It started at Ascot in June, when he improved dramatically to deliver a career-best four-length victory in the G2 Summer Mile. Appleby put him on the shelf and brought him to Canada next, where he dominated the G1 Woodbine Mile ahead of fellow runners Shirl’s Speight and Lucky Score. In a trip to Keeneland, he was similarly impressive in the G1 Turf Mile but came up just short to the respectable Up to the Mark in a tight photo finish. He has the class edge and his trainer has a clear eye for finding horses that can improve in the States. The far outside post is one of the few issues.
Order: 10 3 14 8
This race is going to be bananas. It feels wrong to draw a line through any of these horses, as they’re all evenly matched and could be ready here. Watching replays of Songline (Jpn) in Japan was something else, however. She’s simply racing at a level I rarely get to see, and she may not not win here but she seems guaranteed to try. Casa Creed hasn’t had his best days in California, but he’s coming into this race in nearly the best shape of his life. He fits very well here and could make some noise at a moderate price. Master of the Seas (Ire) and Mawj (Ire) are both Europeans who have already made their mark on American racing this year. They are as likely as anyone to take this.
Santa Anita, Race 7
Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 5:10 p.m. ET
1- Hoosier Philly
Once a future superstar, this filly hasn’t really managed to get on the right track at any point in 2023. Maybe, just maybe, two wet tracks in her last two starts are hiding some sort of improvement. But with just one win in an ungraded stakes to her name at three, she doesn’t really figure here.
2- A Mo Reay
Going into 2023, it seemed like this filly was headed in the right direction with three straight victories by March. She even managed to take the G1 Beholder Mile during this stretch with a 95 BSF. She took another step up in class, however, and struggled in the G1 La Troienne before backsliding and going on the shelf. Her two performances off the layoff were poor and she only began to look like herself again when she took place in the G2 Beldame last month. Flavien Prat leaves to ride Wet Paint.
3- Pretty Mischievous (SCRATCHED)
4- Idiomatic
She’s really good. Now let’s look for knocks. Looking beyond her obvious talent, the only time she hasn’t appeared near the front of the field is when she stumbled out of the gate in the G2 Delaware Handicap. This field isn’t significantly inferior to her and there’s plenty of speed, which should create opportunities for runners that can sit a trip. Unfortunately, she won that race at Delaware, along with several other races in stalking efforts. Like I said — she’s really good.
5- Adare Manor
Call me crazy, but I don’t believe this filly is facing the strongest competition in California. This is a mind-boggling statistic, but despite never earning a speed figure over 100, she has not gone off at odds above even money in six starts this year. She has won five straight races, so it’s good to see her capitalizing on these opportunities. But in a field against actual G1 competitors, I don’t believe she’ll be able to cruise up front as easily as she has in her most recent efforts. A clear comfort with the track may prove me wrong, however.
6- Search Results
I’ve always had a soft spot for this mare, and it’s been frustrating to see her fall short at the G1 level on so many occasions. She was a complete no-show in last year’s running of this race but has bounced back nicely in a solid 2023 campaign, earning at least show money in two G1 races and taking a G3 at Churchill for fun in September. She fits in well with this group and I’m placing a sentimental bet on her, but she doesn’t really seem like a champ.
7- Wet Paint
This filly has had a strange second half of her three-year-old campaign after losing as the favorite in the Gq Kentucky Oaks. Brad Cox made a mistake entering her in an ungraded stakes next time out, as the mile was too short for the closer and she lost to fellow runner Hoosier Philly. She bounced back to win the G1 CCA Oaks, but the 89 BSF she earned suggests that she didn’t beat the strongest field. Back against her usual foes in the G1 Alabama, she improved to a career-best 93 BSF but did not come close to catching fellow runner Randomized. She hasn’t raced since mid-August.
8- Randomized
I can’t imagine that New York speed is going to stack up to California speed, but this filly has been motored home to four wins this year and has looked increasingly good doing it. I personally thought 1 ¼ miles was ridiculous when Chad Brown entered her in the G1 Alabama, but he clearly knew better and the horse led wire to wire. The G2 Beldame was a gimme prep for this race and she took care of business again, taking an easy lead through soft fractions and matching her career-high 98 BSF. The only problem now is that it is virtually impossible for her to get her usual trip in this field. Joel Rosario leaves to ride Clairiere.
9- Clairiere
Are the alarm bells ringing? This superstar six-year-old has had her ups and downs before, but it has been a long time since anyone saw her lose like she did in the G1 Personal Ensign last time out. Fans of the horse can make several excuses. The sloppy track certainly could have hindered her that day. Moreover, she delivered a similarly poor performance in the Personal Ensign last year and came back to nearly win this race off the same layoff. The difference this time around, however, is that her performance in the G2 Shuvee was also underwhelming, as she hung badly in the stretch and lost to Nest. There’s an excuse there too, as there were only four runners and speed was holding well over that track. But these excuses are piling up for a six-year-old that could go off as a short second or third price in this race. Buyer beware.
10- Desert Dawn
This filly has been a punching bag for Adare Manor all season. Next.
11- Le Da Vida (Chi)
Between the added distance and all the pace in this race, I don’t believe this mare can be counted out entirely. Yes, she was little more than an also-ran against fellow runner Idiomatic last time out, though she did outkick Nest. But on a closer-friendly track in July, she actually managed to finish ahead of Search Results in the G3 Molly Pitcher. If this race sets up under moderate fractions without a noticeable duel up front, she’s going to wallow at the back of the field. If things get interesting early, however, she might have a say in things late at a price.
Order: 11 4 9 5
This race has plenty of horses that will vie for the early lead, and without any real idea of which ones will, I feel the need to fall back on a certainty. I know exactly where Le Da Vida (Chi) will be going into the first turn. If the pace is hot enough, I believe she can get there at the end. Idiomatic may seem one-dimensional at first glance, but I’m willing to bet that she will manage to work out a stalking trip and pick up the pieces against this field. Clairiere has entered several runnings of this race but she has never entered in such poor form. She may have a few races left in her, however, and the pace should set up nicely. Adare Manor is a prototypical horse for the course and I would feel like an idiot if I didn’t mention him.
Santa Anita, Race 8
Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 ½ Miles on the Turf
Post Time: 5:50 p.m. ET
1- Shahryar (Jpn)
His last race in August was a massive disappointment and puts him on the back foot here. Before that, however, there was actually a lot of upside for this horse. After winning the 2022 G1 Dubai Sheema Classic, he spent the rest of that campaign facing arguably the toughest competition in the world. Going up against Equinox is like fighting the rain and this poor horse had to do it twice, getting absolutely crushed both times. His runner-up finish in the G1 Japan Cup a year ago was his last great race, but I can’t trust him on the basis of just two bad starts since.
2- Onesto (Ire)
This horse, and several others in this field, actually appeared in a guest article I did for the 2022 Prix de l’ Arc de Triomphe. One might think that this highly touted colt would have won a race at some point since I last saw him, but he has instead struggled for most of that time. Fortunately, there’s reason to hope. In this year’s running of the Arc, he went off at 55-1 odds but delivered the performance of his life to fly home for third. Maybe he’s finally putting the pieces together.
3- Gold Phoenix (Ire)
He’s one of just two horses in this race with a start over this turf, and I can barely say he’s a horse for the course. If anything, this California runner seems more comfortable going longer at Del Mar. He lost as the beaten favorite in a G2 stakes last time out, putting him in an impossible position here.
4- Bolshoi Ballet (Ire) (SCRATCHED)
Miss you pal.
5- Auguste Rodin (Ire)
This colt is awesome in whatever sense you want it to mean. Yes, on two occasions, he has inexplicably thrown in the towel. In his five other stakes attempts, however, he has been nothing short of brilliant. After being eased in a G1 stakes at Ascot in July, the colt faced older horses for the second time in September in the G1 Irish Champion Stakes. He ran the best race of his life at Leopardstown that day, defeating the highly touted Luxembourg in a thriller. He has some serious, serious rivals to deal with, but I have to admit I’m hooked.
6- Get Smokin (SCRATCHED)
7- Broome (Ire)
This horse has been a mainstay at the G1 level in Europe and has consistently disappointed. He somehow landed 7-1 odds in last year’s BC Turf and finished sixth. He’s only won one of his nine starts since, a marathon G2 stakes in the UAE.
8- Up To The Mark
The United States doesn’t stand much of a chance in this race, but this colt deserves respect anywhere in the world. Going into the summer, Todd Pletcher seemed to be gearing his trainee up for war, firing him into the G1 ranks straight from allowance competition. He thrived, finishing third in the G1 Maker’s Mark before taking the G1 Turf Classic and G1 Manhattan in commanding fashion. After going on the shelf for a bit, Pletcher brought him back in October for the G1 Turf Mile. It was too short for him and was clearly a prep for this race, but he still managed to win the event over Master of the Seas with a 100 BSF. It’s impossible to know how he stacks up to his European counterparts, but it’s undeniable that he’s the hottest turf horse in the country at the moment. He only seems to get stronger with distance.
9- Mostahdef (Ire)
This race is really capturing my imagination. You’ll have to lend me a few paragraphs here. If Auguste Rodin and Up to the Mark are the future of the sport on their respective continents, then this guy is the one guarding the bridge.
There were hints that this 16-race veteran was capturing lightning in a bottle last year, when he won the G3 September with a 122 Timeform rating. But when he went off at 56-1 in the Arc and finished dead last, everyone felt content writing him off. Sure enough, he returned in February to begin his five-year-old season in Saudi Arabia and annihilated the field for the G2 Neom Turf Cup by seven lengths. But then he took his scheduled beating from Equinox (imagine if he was here?) in the G1 Dubai Sheema Classic and everyone wrote him off again.
Finally, at 10-1 odds in the G1 Prince of Wales’s, he stepped out of the shadows, completely dusting Luxembourg in a four-length win. It was all a prelude. In the G1 Juddmonte International in August, he faced off against superstars Nashwa and Paddington. Frankie Dettori made a brilliant decision, taking him to the lead and trying to steal it. Both of his foes ran at him late, but he held fast to the lead and won while carrying a whopping 134 pounds. I now ask the question: what can these young guns do against that?
10- Adhamo (Ire)
This is the type of European that winds up training stateside. In the summer of 2022, he seemed to be putting the pieces together and even earned a win in the G1 United Nations with a 104 BSF. He has struggled since, however, and has only raced twice in 2023 without much success.
11- King of Steel
This colt was cross-entered into the Classic, and based on how this field is shaping up, I almost would have preferred to see him try the dirt. I’m still very excited he’s here, however, as he’s a stud three-year-old in his own right. Though he has lost to fellow runner Auguste Rodin on three occasions, he has fared rather well when he can get away from that foe. His career-best victory a few weeks ago in the G1 Champion at Ascot ensures that he’s coming into this event sharp, though trainer Roger Varian is asking a lot of him to ship him around the world on such a quick turnaround. A minor prize is well within range.
12- Balladeer
Trainer George Papaprodromou must have sensed a weak field in the G2 John Henry last month, as he entered this colt off a sharp allowance win and nothing else. He delivered, taking a massive early lead and hanging on late against a handful of low-level Breeders’ Cup runners. He’s wildly over his head in this race, but he is likely the most comfortable over this Santa Anita surface.
13- War Like Goddess
It’s absurd that this mare feels like an afterthought after analyzing so many amazing horses in this race. Let’s focus up — she deserves our best. It’s remarkable how similar her 2023 form is to her 2022 form, barring a poor showing in June. After a shocking loss against females in a G2 stakes race, she has now come back twice to face the boys in the G1 Turf Classic and dominate with identical 105 BSFs. Last year, this translated to a BC Turf show finish in which she lost to Europeans Rebel’s Romance and Stone Age. This race appears tougher than that one, but she can’t be counted out.
Order: 5 9 8 13
As a fan of this sport, I would honestly be overjoyed if any of my top four won this race. As a handicapper, I think Auguste Rodin (Ire) is the one. Though he is younger than Mostahdef (Ire), he has the edge on his foe at this distance. As strong as Mostahdef has been, he has done most of his recent damage at distances closer to 1 ¼ miles. I don’t doubt that he can handle it either, but if the two hook up at the top of the stretch, I believe the three-year-old can get the better of him. For all of the attention I’m giving these two Europeans, it’s rare to see an American horse as souped up as Up to the Mark at this moment. The colt has been nearly untouchable recently, winning races he had no right to win and crushing fields when he had the advantage. I believe he can make a ton of noise. War Like Goddess may not be far behind him, as Bill Mott clearly believes that she can beat the boys at this level after another convincing win at Keeneland.
Santa Anita, Race 9
Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 ¼ Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
1- Arcangelo (SCRATCHED)
2- Zandon
This colt never finished worse than fourth in his entire 13-race career, and yet, he has just three wins. One of those came last month in the G2 Woodward at Aqueduct, where he beat up on a weak field that did not produce any other Classic runners. He’s nearly at a point where he can compete at the highest levels, but it’s been that way for some time. Flavien Prat leaves to ride Arabian Knight.
3- White Abarrio
After a slightly disappointing three-year-old campaign, it seemed like this colt would continue down a similar path at four when he didn’t fire in the G1 Pegasus World Cup. Then he won a live optional claimer before moving into Rick Dutrow’s barn. He instantly improved, finishing third in the G1 Met Mile with a 106 BSF. But in a rematch with Cody’s Wish and fellow runner Zandon at 1 ⅛ miles in the G1 Whitney, he completely turned the tables, crushing both foes with a 110 BSF. He’s still largely unproven at 1 ¼ miles and Cody’s Wish is clearly a miler, but it’s not like the Americans in this field are world beaters. Maybe he has enough for this.
4- Missed The Cut
This colt only seems to belong here because of a marathon victory in the G3 Tokyo City, which he won against a vastly inferior field to this one. If you go way back to his European days, he actually earned a very quality win in the Churchill, defeating the highly touted Algiers on a synthetic track. But his recent form on dirt isn’t very encouraging.
5- Derma Sotogake
I adored this colt in the Kentucky Derby, and though there weren’t many excuses for his defeat in that race, he wasn’t exactly disgraced either. The obvious problem here is that he hasn’t raced since. I don’t need to do any deep research to know that no horse has ever won the Classic coming off a layoff of this duration. I’m very hesitant to toss him, as I want to believe that he has improved behind the scenes since May. But it’s asking a lot for him to compete in this spot.
6- Saudi Crown
With a stakes win out of the way following the G1 Pennsylvania Derby, this precocious runner seems ready to take the next step up. Distance has not proven to be an issue yet up to 1 ⅛ miles, as he has been remarkably consistent since coming up just short in the G3 Dwyer back in July. Some might argue he would have defeated Forte in the G2 Jim Dandy if not for some bumping in the stretch. Fortunately, the close finish finally went his way at Parx, and if he can run back to a 105 BSF in this one, he has a chance at a minor prize. A win could be difficult to come by, however, as he’ll likely have to deal with fellow speedster Arabian Knight to his outside.
7- Clapton
This colt has been buzzing in and out of stakes competition for some time now and finally seems to have gained a foothold. A win in the G2 Lukas Classic helps him a little, but he’s a little short on excuses after falling short to fellow runners Bright Future and Proxy in the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup.
8- Ushba Tesoro (Jpn)
If you can find a flaw, go nuts. All I’m seeing is a well-traveled Japanese runner coming into this race in razor sharp form. Undefeated for more than a year now with six straight victories, the key for this six-year-old is his versatility. In the G1 Dubai World Cup, he turned heads with a stunning last-to-first win. But in the Nippon TV Hai, he showed something completely different, taking advantage of his tactical speed and stalking the pace en route to another commanding victory. That race in September after a long break was much needed to prep him for this trip to California and he passed the test with flying colors. I’m all over him.
9- Senor Buscador
He’s good for a minor stakes win here and there, but as this five-year-old demonstrated in the BC Dirt Mile last year, he’s a step below the best. He hasn’t improved significantly in 2023 and doesn’t even figure as a California insider with two losses in two starts at Santa Anita.
10- Dreamlike
The sloppy track at Parx on Sep. 23 apparently set up well for closers, but this colt was the only one who got remotely close to fellow runner Saudi Crown, who would have won in a blowout otherwise. That being said, there’s still very little to go on with this lightly raced runner. He nearly won the G2 Wood Memorial before he broke his maiden, and he still has just one win in six career starts. The 104 BSF he just earned helps his case, but he needs to keep moving forward.
11- Bright Future
This colt took a nice step forward in September to win the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, defeating fellow runner Proxy in a photo finish. If a speed duel forms in this race, he figures to be an excellent candidate to stalk the pace. I have questions about the strength of most stakes races for older dirt horses in New York this season, however, as it’s especially notable that he went off at 7-2 odds in the Jockey Club with almost no stakes experience. I believe this field will be a little deeper.
12- Arabian Knight
After a disappointing showing off a long layoff in the G1 Haskell, Bob Baffert stuck by his horse and stretched him out even farther in the G1 Pacific Classic. Using his early speed, the colt passed the test against older horses with flying colors, holding off fellow three-year-old Geaux Rocket Ride in a winning photo finish. The 101 BSF is somewhat light and I don’t believe he was facing quality older horses, but Baffert should have his precocious runner ready to go over his home track. Expect him near the front, where he may have to deal with Saudi Crown.
13- Proxy
This horse has always been respectable at lower levels and even managed to win the G1 Clark last year. On the whole, however, he tends to struggle against the best horses on dirt and will not likely be useful beyond exotic plays.
Order: 8 6 5 12
I’m very confident in Ushba Tesoro (Jpn) and his quest to win races in three separate continents. Saudi Crown has controlling early speed that could serve him very well in this part of the country. He’ll have to deal with Arabian Knight, who I have fourth, but I believe the former horse been prepared better. Derma Sotogake (Jpn) is a very fun bet as the wild card of the race.
Santa Anita, Race 10
Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 5 Furlongs on the Turf
Post Time: 7:25 p.m. ET
1- Big Invasion
This colt may not be quite as successful now as he was at the lower levels at three, but he’s had a productive 2023 campaign in any case. Performances in the G2 Nearctic and G1 Jaipur stand out as especially impressive and gave him a spot in this field. My one serious issue is that he seems a little more comfortable at longer sprint distances and may not appreciate the going here.
2- Bradsell (GB) (SCRATCHED)
3- Caravel
Last year’s shocking 42-1 winner of this race began the 2023 season with three straight victories. She took a noticeable step back in the G3 Troy, however, and a return to racing last month yielded a similar result in an even weaker spot. If she can recapture her form at the beginning of the summer, she’s a contender here, but that seems like a lot to ask for.
4- Tony Ann
This mare put herself on the map with an upset win over fellow runner Caravel in the G2 Franklin last month. She earned a career-high 93 BSF in that race, which won’t come close to winning this event. She could get a solid pace, however, so things could set up for her well midpack.
5- Live In The Dream (Ire)
The TimeformUS Pace figures would have me believe that this is the fastest horse I’ve ever seen. After a gorgeous 28-1 win in the G1 Nunthorpe in England, trainer Adam West shipped him to Kentucky to compete in the G2 Woodford. After dueling for the lead through a 20 ⅘-second quarter mile on a closer-friendly track, he eventually folded and settled for fourth. That performance might be better than it appeared at the time and he has the European form to suggest he’s sharp. With even a little relief on the front end, he can be extremely dangerous.
6- Gear Jockey
A return to Kentucky Downs was exactly what this horse needed, as he worked out a nice trip near the front end in the G2 Turf Sprint and won a photo at 23-1 odds. He was next to useless in his two starts before that and his general form is poor in comparison to others in this field. If he beats me, he beats me.
7- Nobals
This gelding has been very consistent in his last four races at lower levels, winning three times with speed figures between 99 and 102. He should be prominent in this field with the ability to run a quarter in 22 seconds, though it’s obviously concerning that he has never attempted to compete at the G1 level. That doesn’t matter quite as much in turf sprints, however, and he figures as a contender.
8- Aesop’s Fables (Ire)
This colt encouraged many punters overseas as a juvenile but hasn’t managed to put all the pieces together at three. Facing older horses early on proved especially difficult for him, but things have been taking a turn lately. In the G1 Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp last month, he improved dramatically to finish third at long odds, one length behind top-level sprinter Highfield Princess. If that horse was in this race, she would be a likely favorite. This one may have his issues, but bettors will get essentially get to bet on the same past performance at a much better price.
9- Roses for Debra
Taking on the boys in the G3 Turf Monster last time out was an important test for this filly, and she didn’t exactly pass with flying colors. The yielding track could be an excuse, but she still regressed to an 82 BSF against a Parx field she was plainly better than on paper. Those who still believe in her will be compensated well for that support, and it’s very possible they’re right, as she was in excellent form before the recent setback.
10- Motorious (GB)
I usually don’t like California turf runners, but this guy is pretty cool. He hasn’t really managed to put two races in a row without a layoff lately, but that seems to be working for him, as he has improved significantly to win two of his last three starts. He has never competed at the G1 level but has show proficiency over the Santa Anita course, giving him an edge in this sort of race. I think he can sit the trip.
11- Jasper Krone
This Japanese-based turfer has been outrunning his odds all year, consistently competing at a high level in crowded fields. Finishing dead last in the G3 Hakodate Sprint was a hard lesson but he bounced back nicely to win two G3 races at 27-1 and 12-1 respectively. He took another step up in class last month in the $2 million G1 Sprinters and finished fourth by two lengths. He’s an interesting option.
12- Arzak
After showing very little in stakes races earlier in his career, this horse improved at the optional claiming level in New York and was entered into the G2 Woodford last month. With a perfect closing trip and blistering early fractions up front, he delivered a career-best performance to win at 11-1 odds. The same horse that set those early fractions will run in this race too, but on a different track at a shorter distance, it’s harder to see him improving upon that showing.
13- One Timer (AE) (SCRATCHED)
14- Beer Can Man (AE)
This late-flying gelding could not have received better conditions in his last two starts — extremely fast fractions on a closer-friendly track. He lost both races, casting doubt on his ability to win in this kind of race.
15- Lane Way (AE)
If he gets in, this gelding might be a little scary. He doesn’t fire every time and has only raced three times in 2023, but he’s a California runner through and through and relishes this Santa Anita turf course. Make sure to give him a look if he’s in.
16- Twilight Gleaming (Ire) (AE) (SCRATCHED)
Order: 5 10 7 8
Live In The Dream (Ire) had a tough time of it in his stateside debut, displaying so much early speed in a track that didn’t favor it. He’s a remarkable candidate for improvement based on his European form. Motorious (GB) is a very cool California runner getting stronger at the right time. I think he can make some noise. Nobals will be the other main speed in the race and he has shown impressive persistence while dueling in the past. Aesop’s Fables (Ire) is an interesting long shot with upside coming out of some tough French races.
Santa Anita, Race 11
Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
Post Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
1- Nakatomi
This gelding has never won a graded stakes race, though he has gotten close on several occasions. In the G2 Phoenix last time out, he fought extremely hard in the stretch but came up just short in an upset defeat to fellow runner Hoist the Gold. He could improve in his second start off the layoff, but he needs to improve to figure as more than an exotic candidate.
2- Dr. Schivel
The 2021 runner-up in this race missed most of 2022 but returned in reasonable order this year. After a solid allowance win at Santa Anita, his home course, he tried the G1 Met Mile but ran into adverse track conditions. He arguably should have won the G1 Bing Crosby next time out but underperformed and lost a three-way photo to fellow runner The Chosen Vron. After a short layoff, however, he returned to Santa Anita and won the G2 Santa Anita Sprint Championship with a 103 BSF. He did the exact same thing before nearly winning the BC Sprint in 2021, giving him a solid chance here.
3- American Theorem (SCRATCHED)
4- Hoist The Gold
Even with his most recent win in the G2 Phoenix, this colt doesn’t really figure as a win contender in this race.
5- Three Technique
Trainer Jason Cook doesn’t seem to know if this horse is a miler or a sprinter, though he’s apparently settling on the latter for now after his horse disappointed in the G3 Ack Ack off the layoff. On paper, he’s not terribly far off, but the margin of error is smaller in sprints and he doesn’t seem prepared to deliver.
6- The Chosen Vron
This gelding has completely dominated the California statebred scene for more than a year now, and his step into open company was long overdue. In the G1 Bing Crosby, he overcame bad traffic and also likely benefited from a biased track to win by a head over Anarchist and fellow runner Dr. Schivel. He hasn’t raced since late July, which is a rather long layoff for the Breeders’ Cup, but he’s undoubtedly the horse for this course.
7- Speed Boat Beach
It’s mystifying why Bob Baffert tried the turf for so long with this colt, as he earned a 104 BSF on dirt in his juvenile debut last year. After a long layoff, Baffert decided to embrace the surface change and entered him in the G2 Santa Anita Sprint Championship, where he dueled for the lead early and got sniped by Dr. Schivel in the final yards. He’s back on the right surface and seems to appreciate Santa Anita, making him q strong candidate for improvement in his second start off the layoff.
8- Elite Power
He’s been a superstar for more than a year now and he’s out for revenge. After eight straight wins between June 2022 and July 2023, the streak finally came to an end in August when fellow runner Gunite finally took him down in the G1 Forego. If he can bounce back from that 98 BSF and return to his previous performances, there’s no doubt as to whether he can win this race. But between the layoff and his inexcusable regression last race, one has to wonder if he’s worth the short price.
9- Gunite
A mile in the slop at Parx took the winds out of this colt’s sails almost immediately after he earned the win of his life. After knocking on Elite Power’s door for the better part of a year, he earned the win in a grinding rendition of the G1 Forego. He lost the next month in the Parx Dirt Mile, of course, but people won’t pay much attention to that. If he runs back to his summer form at shorter distances, he could be extremely dangerous.
Order: 2 8 7 6
Dr. Schivel nearly won this race in California two years ago, and he seems to look like his old self again at five. Elite Power is the reigning champ and hasn’t done much wrong since winning this race last year. He has shown cracks recently but remains a stout contender. Speed Boat Beach finally seems to be on the dirt for good, and while I would like to see some more experience, he’s on the right track to make a big statement here. The Chosen Vron doesn’t boast much class but is a quintessential horse for the course, which matters on this California dirt.