Handicapping Roundtable: Travers Stakes Analysis from the Best

When I’m undecided about a race, the people included in this article are the ones I invariably turn to. They represent decades of combined experience at the track, and their opinions are as reputable as any other out there. In my small racing world, these are the handicapping elite, and today, they’ve been gracious enough to provide their Travers analysis to my small, but loyal, audience.

As far as handicapping goes, I’d trust no article more than this one, but more goes into the Travers than hardcore analysis. For outlooks from relatively inexperienced, but talented, individuals, make sure to check out “New Wave,” the guest handicapping article featuring novices of the game. For a completely nonsensical look at this historic race, check out “The Casual Bet,” featuring opinions from several qualified (and many more unqualified) individuals. My full card analysis is available as always in my daily article.

Patrick Moquin Sr.

This well-named gentleman is my father and chief handicapping partner. He works as an electrician for Local Union #3 of the IBEW, and one of his more Herculean tasks in life was nurturing a baseball career out of his somewhat uptight son. His famous adage, “No worries,” has transcended every social group and forum he’s ever been a part of.

My father learned the game of horse racing through his father, who then taught me as well. One might think that we would have similar handicapping styles, but that’s not necessarily the case, as he’s much more focused on class while my game is more speed-oriented. We often converge on picks made through pace and training, however. To provide his analysis, he dictated to my sister Emma, whose own picks are also featured in the guest novice article. 

Pat Sr.’s Top Four: 

2- Country Grammer

6- Tiz the Law

8- South Bend

4- Max Player

Pat Sr.: Here’s to hoping Country Grammer is the kid that grew three inches in his senior year of high school, because he’ll need to get better. But in all five races he’s run, he has gotten better each time. I’m betting the train continues today, because if every horse in the field runs its last race Tiz the Law wins by 5. 

Another one with a shot, South Bend woke up last time getting back on the dirt, though he would still need to improve off that effort. Now he’s got a new trainer and jockey, Bill Mott and Jose Ortiz, to help him do it. Max Player fills out the superfecta, but I can’t see how he makes up 5 lengths on the Law.

 

Joe Burns

In my years of experience going to Belmont, there are few more interesting people to speak to in the backyard than Joe Burns. He works as a union electrician but plays the horse like a professional, skipping multiple races at a time and saving his wagers for optimal situations. He’s one of the heavier bettors I’ve encountered as well, but his analysis is top-notch. He’s one of the few people I know that might consider my analysis a little simplistic.

Joe’s Bets: As far as wagering strategy; I’m betting Uncle Chuck to win, a straight exacta of Uncle Chuck over Tiz the Law, and an exacta box of Uncle Chuck and Country Grammer.

Joe: To be put bluntly, the Travers is a three-horse race with five supplemental entries. Tiz the Law, Uncle Chuck, and Country Grammer are the three horses, to be more specific. It’s not a creative way to look at this renewal of this race, but not many high profile stakes races lend towards a deep dive on a midpriced longshot with potential. There are two ways to look at this race: one is that Tiz the Law is the overwhelming class and will win, and the other is that a horse like the lightly raced Uncle Chuck or the improving Country Grammer can move up a few points to level the likely heavy favorite.

Tiz the Law is the leader in the Kentucky Derby points standings at 277; this is a point of interest, seeing how the Derby is a month away and ultimately that race is the goal these connections are aiming for. Last Saturday at Del Mar, a similar situation arose when Honor A.P. ran in the Shared Belief and was beaten less than a length by Thousand Words. His speed figures have remained at the same level since the start of his three-year-old campaign. This can be a frustrating horse to a figure oriented handicapper. He doesn’t run too fast or slow, but enough to win.

Uncle Chuck is the newest Baffert sharp. The Los Alamitos Derby doesn’t have the name recognition of a Belmont or Peter Pan, but it might end up being a better next out race. The runner-up was Thousand Words, who came back last week to win the Shared Belief and beat the highly regarded Honor A.P. This move is not a new one to Baffert either: in 2017, he had West Coast ready to win off the Los Alamitos Derby, albeit with far more foundation than two lifetime races.

Of the trio that I feel are the likeliest winners, Country Grammer will offer the most value. His Peter Pan was a new top in his career and with Chad Brown calling the shots this one could pair up or improve. The Peter Pan victory highlighted two improvements, one obvious and the other more subtle. The obvious being turning around a six and a half length defeat to the fleet Tap It To Win in a June 4th allowance race and in the same motion going from being one and a half lengths behind Mystic Guide to beating that rival by three and a half lengths at Saratoga. A prior stakes win over the surface is an edge that the Brown runner holds over his main rivals.

 

Kevin Moquin

Kevin Moquin is my uncle, and is also an electrician in Local Union #3 of the IBEW. He’s never missed a Paddy’s Picks article, and is truly one of my biggest supporters in all of my pursuits. Of all the highly experienced handicappers I’ve encountered, I’ve never met a better long shot hunter. He’s found horses in the Form that I never would have looked at twice, and they’ve come in often enough to net him a huge profit on many occasions.

1- First Line: Broke his maiden two weeks ago going 1 1/8 miles over the Saratoga main track for one of hottest trainers on the grounds, Orlando Noda. Taking a big step up to Grade 1 Travers. Extremely difficult to see him winning. 

2- Country Grammar: Nice win in the Grade 3 Peter Pan earning a 96 BSF. Chad Brown is a trainer you need to take notice of if he enters a horse in any race. Lack of racing experience may cost him. 

3- Uncle Chuck: This colt comes across the country for Hall of Fame and two time Triple Crown winning trainer Bob Baffert.  Baffert knows how to win the Travers; he has 11 starts, 3 wins, 1 second, and a third. Not too shabby. Uncle Chuck comes out of the Grade 3 Los Alamitos Derby with a 94 BSF.

4- Max Player: Finished 3rd in the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes behind Tiz The Law. Gets another 1/8th of a mile in the Travers that he should benefit from in closing the gap on Tiz. I would have liked to see him train over the Saratoga main track prior to the race but trainer Linda Rice has kept him at Belmont.

5- Shivaree: Comes to Saratoga after having not run much in the Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes. He did finish 2nd to Tiz The Law in the Grade 1 Florida Derby with a 90 BSF in March. 

6- Tiz the Law: Wow, just Wow! This horse has been nothing short of spectacular in his three year old campaign. He won his last race the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes with ease, posting a 100 BSF. He has been training over the Saratoga main track since the opening day of the meet. Sackatoga Stables and 82-year-old trainer Barclay Tagg have been blessed with their second very special horse. Seventeen years ago, they teamed up to race the Kentucky Derby and Preakness champ Funny Cide. 

7- Caracaro: He had a nice run over the Saratoga main oval in the Grade 3 Peter Pan finishing 2nd to Country Grammar while racing wide. Caracaro comes from the Gustavo Delgado barn, not well known to the NYRA circuit while having most of his success in south Florida.

8- South Bend: Whoever’s known me for any length of time knows about my love of Notre Dame football. When I saw this horse’s name, it virtually forced me to put a $20 futures bet on him in the Kentucky Derby back in December. He was recently sold and moved into Hall of Famer Bill Mott’s barn about a month ago. Mott is very capable of getting a horse to improve. He will have to improve to have any impact in this race.

Top Four:

 1st- Tiz The Law 

He seems to be cut above all other three-year-olds at this juncture.

2nd- Uncle Chuck 

Bob Baffert doesn’t bring his horses to Saratoga to lose. Watch out for this colt to grow into something special.

3rd- Caracaro 

I liked this colt’s last race in the Peter Pan. With a better trip I definitely think he could land in the top four spots. 

4th- Max Player 

He should benefit from the extra 1/8th of a mile and he’ll be running late to try and get a piece of this $1,000,000 purse. 

After reviewing his picks for the G1 Travers, Uncle Kev was feeling a little chalky. In order to better represent his handicapping style based on value, he asked to provide a supplemental pick on the Saratoga race card.

The 5, Misty Tate, in the 12th race is my value play. I’m using him in doubles with the 3, 4, 6, 7 in the 11th. 1st start for Kelly Breen after being removed from the Jason Servis barn. She’s had enough time to clear her system and has been firing bullet works over the Saratoga main. Gets class relief racing against NY breds and was racing against some nice 2 year olds that returned to win out of her past 2 races.

Value Play: The 5, Misty Tate, in the 12th race.

 

Paul Moquin

Paul Moquin is my father’s uncle, though he’s as much an uncle to me as he was to him. A retired union electrician, he shares many of my interests in horse racing beyond the realm of gambling. We basically have a book club going at this point, and regularly exchange horse racing biographies for discussion. He’s yet another fervent supporter of mine, and actually helped to inspire me to create this website in the first place.

Paul’s Top Four:

6- Tiz the Law

2- Country Grammer

3- Uncle Chuck

4- Max Player

TIZ THE LAW- Hopefully jockey Manny Franco listens to Barclay Tagg, my favorite trainer. Angel Cordero, Franco’s agent and one of my favorite jockeys, says the same thing.The horse’s past performance rates him even money for the Travers. His only loss came on a bad track combined with a lousy ride. Please remember before you bet the farm, Saratoga is the Graveyard of Champions. Also, only one horse has ever won the Triple Crown and the Travers. With luck, the streak will continue and TIZ THE LAW will be included in that stat. 

COUNTRY GRAMMAR- Trainer Chad Brown has owned Saratoga in recent times.The horse will be there at the finish being ridden by excellent jockey Irad Ortiz. 

UNCLE CHUCK- Stretching out after a huge win in Los Alamitos Derby. B.B. has won the Travers three times. 

FIRST LINE- Excellent new guy, trainer Orlando Noda, says the horse has found his niche going the distance. I believe him.

MAX PLAYER and CARACARO will need to be closer to the pace for a chance.

 

Jeff Mansman and Paula Mansman

There are very, very few people that I enjoy talking to more than Jeff and Paula Mansman. Jeff is a union electrician, but like Joe Burns, I’ve gotten to know them more through Belmont than any union event. The Backyard is an excellent place to interact with people, and no one seems to enjoy it more than Jeff. In addition to being excellent people, Jeff and Paula are excellent handicappers, and have given me $50 of their massive windfalls on more than one occasion.

Jeff’s Pick: 6- Tiz the Law

Jeff’s Horses to Watch: 4- Max Player and 8- South Bend

“Tiz the Law is the horse to beat, of course. He might be a special animal, but I do like Linda Rice’s horse, Max Player, who ran five lengths behind and has Rosario back aboard. He’s been riding fabulously up at Saratoga. The guy’s spot on, and second time off the layoff, the horse is eligible to improve. I think that’s one of the key contenders against Tiz the Law. You know, they’re all on Uncle Chuck and Bob Baffert, but I’m not going that way.

The other horse that I thought might be a surprise package here is Billy Mott and Jose Ortiz with South Bend. Ortiz has been riding spectacularly, and Bill Mott is a fabulous trainer. He’s not great first time out with horses, but if you give him a little bit of time… and this is a new acquisition in his barn. He ran a bullet workout up at Saratoga, and if they ever go at it hard on the front end like crazy, 45 flat or so, which is a possibility with Shivaree, Caracaro, Uncle Chuck, and First Line, a lot of speed in the race, South Bend might come flying.”

Paula’s Bet: Exacta with the 2, Country Grammer, and the 6, Tiz the Law

After a 25-minute phone conversation with Jeff, he told me that he would call me back with Paula’s pick. While a reason wasn’t given for her support of Country Grammer, it’s certainly a logical pick. I most identify Paula’s handicapping prowess with her winning bet on Discreet Lover at 45-1 odds in the 2018 Jockey Club Gold Cup. After a win like that, her picks don’t require an explanation. 

Recap

Pat Sr.: 2- Country Grammer and 6- Tiz the Law

Joe: 3- Uncle Chuck, 6- Tiz the Law, and 2- Country Grammer

Kevin: 6- Tiz the Law, 3- Uncle Chuck, and 7- Caracaro

Paulie: 6- Tiz the Law, 2- Country Grammer, and 3- Uncle Chuck

Jeff: 6- Tiz the Law, 3- Max Player, and 8- South Bend

Paula: 6- Tiz the Law and 2- Country Grammer