This may not turn into a recurring series, but at this exact moment, I happen to have cooperative friends and a competitive race. To celebrate the 2022 running of the Dubai World Cup, six guests found time in their busy schedules to provide analysis for Paddy’s Picks. Some know what they’re doing and some are trying their best.
At Fordham, I’m one of the few students who spend a significant amount of time on both of the university’s campuses, Lincoln Center in Manhattan and Rose Hill in the Bronx. It’s inevitable that I got to know some people in both places along the way, and what better way to keep friends than to pit them against one another?
To analyze the Dubai World Cup, three of my friends from each campus will provide their insights. Most of the names should sound familiar to longtime readers.
Emily Ellis is a junior at Fordham and works at The Fordham Observer as a copy editor. I’m vaguely aware that she does work as an orientation leader at Fordham as well, and also works as a teaching assistant at a school in the city. I should probably pay better attention before I decide to give updates on my guests’ lives. Emily also happened to be the host in Morristown two weeks ago when I shared a couch with a pair of domesticated animals.
Maddie Sandholm has now worked as layout editor at The Observer for nearly three years. Next week, she will interview for the position of managing editor of the newspaper, and it seems like she’s running unopposed. If you can keep something between us, dear reader, I’d have to assume that the lack of competition helps her chances. It should also be noted that Maddie provided analysis for this race while operating on next to no sleep with a persistent illness. She’s put up with far more of my nonsense in the past though, and we managed to get through all 11 horses.
Unlike every other guest in this article, Shaily Jani analyzed the Dubai World Cup as a Paddy’s Picks debutante. I’m well aware that she won’t appreciate that title, which is the primary reason for its inclusion. While Shaily, a podcast producer for The Observer, has not provided analysis for Paddy’s Picks before, she is actually somewhat familiar with horse racing. She has begun to receive a similar helping of horse racing videos that I’ve previously used to teach other friends. For instance, to celebrate Women’s History Month, I introduced her to 2009 Preakness winner Rachel Alexandra. I’m very annoying.
Moving on to the Rose Hill crowd, Niko Konstantellis has now completed his undergraduate work at Fordham and is a real adult with an actual job. If you asked me what that job was, I would struggle to explain it, which is especially revealing because he’s been working from home. But it’s nevertheless been a pleasure watching him grow from an occasionally put upon college student to a fully exasperated grownup.
As always, George McKnight continues to wheel and deal, and has enjoyed a few positive developments in recent weeks. In addition to accepting an assistant coaching position for our old high school baseball program next year, George will also travel to London this summer for a new job that will begin shortly after graduation. Again, the details of his job are as vague and frankly pointless to me as Niko’s, but the relief that it gives him to have a more secure future is news enough.
Kristina Stevanovic maintains her status as a Paddy’s Picks mainstay in her first appearance of 2022. Kristina’s prospects in the field of psychology seem to improve by the day, but we knew that already. Much more importantly, her March Madness bracket this year was phenomenal. With her champion UCLA down after a tough loss to UNC, it’s only a matter of time before she slips from the stratospheric 85th percentile she’s managed to reach after three rounds. But still, what a showing for the plucky upstart. Let’s see if she can pick some horses.
Meydan Racecourse, Race 9
Dubai World Cup (G1) for Four-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 ¼ Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 12:30 p.m. EST
1- Aero Trem (Brz)
Emily: Is that Elon musk’s next half-human, half-horse child?
Maddie (sickie): I’m sick and tired and don’t understand this name.
Shaily: It’s actually pronounced “Aeropostale,” which I feel like most people should know by now.
Niko: I assume he’s been really good against bad competition in Uruguay. He’s won at this distance twice, but 60-1 seems to make sense.
George: Honestly, not bad for a 60-1 shot. Could be worse. Couple of good finishes, but how good were these races?
Kristina: If you had a lot of money and nothing else to do, I guess you would put some money on Aero Trem. For Brazil.
2- Chuwa Wizard (Jpn)
Emily: As the Star Wars movies get progressively worse, so does Chewbacca’s storyline
Maddie: They’re doing WHAT to that wizard?
Shaily: Why did they have to do Gandalf like that?
Niko: He’s fine. Yeah, I really don’t know how to look at international horses, and you gave me the one race with all the international horses. Also, why are all the international horses worse?
George: I had a teacher named Ms. Chua once. Wait, sired by King Kamehameha? That’s a Dragon Ball Z reference. I’m not sure about the Japanese competition.
Kristina: Um… I like the name. Wait, now I’m just embarrassed. Alright, that’s enough of that. We’re on to the next one.
3- Country Grammer
Emily: They spell gray with an E in England and grammar with an E in the south.
Maddie: I’m only 60% sure that this is not the correct way to spell “grammar,” but I’d believe anything at this point
Shaily: If I wanted to hear Country Grammer, I would listen to country music and NO ONE wants to do that.
Niko: Oy vey, it’s Bob Baffert again. I’m actually pleasantly surprised with what I’m looking at. But it seems like he’s just going to run another losing race.
George: I’ve seen a little of this horse before. (Editor’s Note: George picked Country Grammer to finish second to Tiz the Law in the 2020 Travers Stakes. He finished fifth.) It’s been a bit since he’s raced consistently. He’s coming off a nice runner-up finish in the Saudi Cup, but I don’t know if he can repeat against Life Is Good.
Kristina: I definitely don’t want to ignore Country Grammer. But due to previous associations with Chad Brown, boo.
4- Grocer Jack (Ger)
Emily: Grocer Jack? More like grosser jack.
Maddie: What store does he work at?
Shaily: I don’t care about this one. Show me the grossest Jack. Show me the full range of gross Jacks.
Niko (in a German accent): Zee German turf horse! Turf only, and he’s slow. Right? This is really bad analysis, but I think it’s a similar thought process to what others might be thinking.
George: A deustchen horse. His last race was bad, but the four before that were pretty good. I wouldn’t expect much, but maybe a pleasant surprise.
Kristina: He sounds like your local neighborhood guy who sells his backyard produce at the farmer’s market.
5- Hot Rod Charlie
Emily: I did not need to know that Charlie has a hot rod.
Maddie: I remember this horse from some previous race, but I didn’t pick him to win, so I will continue that streak and say he’s not gonna win. (Editor’s Note: Maddie is remembering the 2021 Kentucky Derby or Breeders’ Cup Classic, two races she provided analysis for. She went against Hot Rod Charlie on both occasions.)
Shaily: I hope this horse’s name is just Charlie but he competes by racing in a car. Preferably in a Toyota Corolla.
Niko: Ooh really good last race (in Dubai). Great win. If he was at 70% that day, I can’t imagine what he’s capable of doing. He loves beating Midnight Bourbon, so he’ll get at least one horse in this race. But Life Is Good has just been crushing horses.
George: People are saying he’s the one to beat Life Is Good, and I agree. Strong upset pick.
Kristina: That’s my pick! PSA: Include on all your bets.
6- Hypothetical (Ire)
Emily: But hypothetically, what if this horse was two people in a horse costume?
Maddie: Has this ever happened to you? You’re talking about horses in The Observer office at 5:45 on a Wednesday and the tenth horse is called Hypothetical and now you’re wondering if this is even a real horse or it’s just a hypothetical horse and this is just a placeholder for some new horse that’s gonna be a last-minute contender? Has it happened to you? Has it?
Shaily: If I were hypothetically a horse in this race, I would start running in the other direction.
Niko: What happened in that first Al Maktoum Challenge? At least he’s comfortable running on dirt and came back with two solid wins. I think 20-1 is too high compared to the other long shots in the field. But not by much.
George: Decent showings in these previous races. But he’s raced so much this year. In January he was awful, but he’s done better since. But I think two races in one month is asking a lot.
Kristina: Again, don’t want to ignore the Irish horses. I like that he came back from that bad race in January. We’ve got a fighter here!
7- Life Is Good
Emily: Let me guess – this is the horse that always loses. (Editor’s Note: No.)
Maddie: I love this brand! I’ve got a shirt from them, but it’s a golf shirt. I’m now under the impression that golf and horse racing have the same fanbase. That shirt is one of my favorites, and by the transitive property, this horse is my favorite.
Shaily: I think I saw this on one of those smiley-face plastic bags once! I like the optimism here because it makes me think that it’ll be really exciting if this one wins or really funny if this one loses.
Niko: I know him and he’s good. Like life (Editor’s Note: Niko has never analyzed a race featuring Life Is Good, but has watched him race in last year’s Allen Jerkens Stakes and this year’s Pegasus World Cup). I hope he wins because I don’t understand international horses very well.
George: I know this horse. (Editor’s Note: George correctly predicted that Life Is Good would win the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile.) He seems pretty obvious. He’s back with Irad Ortiz, but I hate seeing “previously trained by Bob Baffert.” Still, there’s no way he struggles in this race.
Kristina: Life Is Good is a must-include in exactas. But I’m nervous about the distance here.
8- Magny Cours
Emily: This one sounds like a condom brand for people in the army.
Maddie: At this point, my brain has completely stopped working. I cannot think of a single thing to say about this horse
Shaily: I think I just cast a spell by reading that out loud.
Niko: Turf and slow.
George: Actually did s*** in the Saudi Cup. Had a long rest before that, and he did OK last year. But the fact that he got smoked in the Saudi Cup doesn’t make me feel confident.
Kristina: I don’t know. Ugh. Not feeling good about this one.
9- Midnight Bourbon
Emily: Bourbon reminded me of Vampire Diaries and that made me think that it would be really cool if there was a vampire horse competing secretly against his competitors and consuming the ones that beat him.
Maddie: What else do I need to make an Old Fashioned?
Shaily: I’m gonna need some of that by the time we’re done here.
Niko: (Editor’s Note: As a guest on Paddy’s Picks, Niko has selected Midnight Bourbon to win the 2021 Kentucky Derby and Haskell Stakes. Privately, he also bet on him to win the Preakness and Travers Stakes. He has lost all four races.) Some might say he’s the best second-place horse in the country. I want him to win so badly. Just once. But no one will let him win. He’s going to finish in third, and I’ll be heartbroken once again. But it’s going to happen.
George: Ooh, horrible showing at the Saudi Cup.
Niko: Not horrible! He finished third!
George: Alright, not horrible, fine.
Niko: Do you know about my obsession with Midnight Bourbon?
George: No.
Niko: Oh, well I love Midnight Bourbon.
George: Is it because you drink a lot of bourbon?
Niko: Only on Wednesdays.
George: Alright, whatever. As someone who likes to drink bourbon, I want to see this horse run well. He’ll finish third behind Hot Rod Charlie and Life Is Good.
Kristina: When you think of previous performances…
10- Real World (Ire)
Emily: I’ve never watched horse racing but I know that this one is faster than “life is good.” Or at least more honest.
Maddie: As someone who had to go to speech therapy as a child to pronounce my “R”s, this name feels targeted
Shaily: I like that this one sounds like this horse watched a bunch of MTV reality shows in the 90s, before it was cool.
Niko: Wow, I really don’t mind Real World from Ireland. The problem is the distance, because he’ll have to stretch out from what he’s been doing. He also finished 11th in the Saudi Cup last time. Why would they race him in this race?
George: I have to show some loyalty, as the Wolfe Tones say, “Not to forget, you’re a proud Irish man.” He also raced in the Saudi Cup, but didn’t do well at all. But before that, he was really good. I’d love to see my Irish horse do well but I don’t he’s gonna.
Kristina: Because of my previous encounters ignoring Irish horses at similar odds, I’m probably just going to do a little hunch bet. (Editor’s Note: For context, in her first voyage to Saratoga last summer, Kristina took on an especially difficult Whitney Day card that included the Saratoga Derby Invitational. In that race, she tossed 21-1 shot State of Rest (Ire) at the last second and he went on to win. She was despondent for nearly an hour afterward.)
11- Remorse (Ire)
Emily: I don’t know about you but I want reMORE of this horse
Maddie: I’m unbelievably happy to be done with this, I’m sure this horse is great, a wonderful pal, hope he does well
Shaily: I don’t know what I’m doing here. I’m just remorsin’ around. When you listen to this horse trot, its footsteps spell out a secret message in morse code.
Niko: Um… just isn’t fast enough and has only won once recently. How is he going to beat Life Is Good or Hot Rod Charlie? Or Midnight Bourbon?
George: Remorse the Horse, that’s pretty fun. He’s got an Irish trainer, and I know a T. O’Shea. But this horse has pretty much no chance.
Kristina: I would say I don’t want to ignore this Irish horse, but I just think he’s too slow.
Guest Selections
Emily’s Pick: 11- Remorse (Ire)
Pat told me that there is a clear favorite and I want to believe that it’s Remorse because the image of a bunch of people cheering “remorse!” is just very funny to me.
Maddie’s Pick: 7- Life Is Good
I can’t remember a single horse’s name that we’ve gone over except for Life Is Good because of the shirt. With all this educated analysis under my belt, I gotta go with Life Is Good. If he wins, is he gonna partner with the brand to release merch? If so, where would I find it?
Shaily’s Pick: 7- Life Is Good
I think that all of these horses probably move real fast, but if I had to pick one, I would say that Life is Good has what it takes to win. If he wins, life sure would be good. If he loses, life will probably be pretty good for the other horses.
Niko’s Pick: 5- Hot Rod Charlie
Hot Rod Charlie, Life Is Good, Midnight Bourbon. 5-7-9, in that order. Life Is Good is going to get got.
George’s Pick: 5- Hot Rod Charlie
Hot Rod Charlie as an upset over Life Is Good, probably by a half length. Midnight Bourbon can pick up the pieces for third.
Kristina’s Pick: 5- Hot Rod Charlie
I think it’s his time to shine. I like his last performance in Dubai. Maybe he’s… um… is it just hot? Like, you know, when you’re hot? Why are you not helping me here? Alright, you get what I’m saying. End scene.