Necessity is the mother of invention, and I really needed to sleep. When guests came forward to provide their Preakness analysis for Paddy’s Picks last week, I assumed that I would be able to produce an article on the day of my graduation ceremony. I was even willing to put it together during the ceremony itself. But in my black robes on a 90-degree day on Saturday, I entered a nearly incoherent state by noon, and couldn’t do much more than sit and stare at the floor until my name was called to receive a diploma. I would apologize, but many of the guests in this article were present with me that day and were similarly delirious. So instead of apologizing, I’m offering a new alternative.
Category: Analysis
2022 Preakness Stakes Preview
Anyone catch that race two weeks ago?
For those of you who invested four months of reading into my “Road to the Derby” series, I have no apology or explanation for what happened on the first Saturday in May. All I can say is that horse racing can be wildly unpredictable. In order to pick Rich Strike to win the Kentucky Derby, I would’ve required divine intervention or complete abandon of reason. But some people won money, didn’t they?
Concerning the owners of Rich Strike and their decision to skip the Preakness to focus on the Belmont, I think it’s a cowardly move that also makes sense. It’s an unwritten rule that a healthy Derby winner must run in the Preakness, but it’s also clear to most that he would’ve been hard-pressed to repeat. As my analysis is about to make clear, there’s a very likely winner here, one that Rich Strike should be familiar with. Let’s get into it.
The People’s Race: Kentucky Derby Guest Analysis
Everyone needs a pick for the Kentucky Derby. It’s mandatory in my opinion. Every year in May, 20 entrants run in the most chaotic event in North American horse racing; it’s an opportunity for the most experienced and most fun-loving to congregate for a relatively random chance at a massive payout.
For the race that everyone should have a pick for, I asked — well, almost everyone, but I tried to focus on people that wouldn’t have picked a horse otherwise. Annoying people in the name of racing awareness is kind of my thing at this point. They never see it coming. Within this chaotic piece, prophecies, gut feelings, mispronunciations and sound logic await. I’ve made no attempt to organize any of it. Happy Derby Day!
Road to the Derby: Kentucky Derby Analysis
We’re at our last stop, aren’t we? After months of studying in an effort to understand the Kentucky Derby, 20 horses will now converge at Churchill Downs. I’ve made money on a few of them, lost more on others, but it has all led to this. Let’s see if I’ve learned anything.
By now, I’ve waxed poetic about the history, opined about current events in the racing world and given you a little about my personal life in this series along the way. Hell, I told my readers about an ill-fated karaoke experience, if that ever meant anything to you. But as the Derby approaches, this one should come down to the analysis. Let’s get to it.
Fillies, No Fellas: Kentucky Oaks Guest Analysis
Most years, the running of the Kentucky Oaks the day before the Kentucky Derby is little more than a stepping stone to the feature event of the weekend. After all, most fillies simply aren’t as fast as the colts, and the Oaks represents their initiation into all-female competition for the rest of their careers.
But sometimes, the Kentucky Oaks represents the first step in one of the most interesting circumstances in racing: a filly proving herself and going on to face the boys. In this sense, it represents hope and doesn’t happen often. Rachel Alexandra did it in 2009, winning the Oaks before defeating Derby winner Mine That Bird in the Preakness. Swiss Skydiver did it in 2020, finishing second in the Oaks before defeating Derby winner Authentic. This year, four fillies seem qualified to take this rare step forward. This isn’t just your average year.
Paddy’s Picks 2022 Kentucky Oaks Preview
Happy Derby Eve everyone! Before we culminate our journey to the Kentucky Derby, it’s just as important to take a look at the Kentucky Oaks, especially this year’s running.
This year’s Oaks field is one of the most competitive that I’ve ever seen, to the point that at least four fillies could have easily been contenders in the Derby if they had chosen to run against the boys. Secret Oath, Nest, Echo Zulu and Kathleen O. are a stellar quartet, and any of them could win in a race that will likely take place in the rain and mud.
Road to the Derby: Blue Grass Stakes Analysis
It’s not our final destination in Kentucky, but it feels good to finally make it into the Bluegrass State after a thrilling, wide open Derby prep season. The Blue Grass has never been my favorite of the Derby preps, but there’s always someone worth keeping an eye on.
In 2020, it was the filly Swiss Skydiver, who lost to Art Collector in the Blue Grass before defeating Horse of the Year Authentic in the Preakness. Last year, Essential Quality won the race before taking the Belmont, Jim Dandy and Travers Stakes later in the season.
Road to the Derby: Santa Anita Derby Analysis
Let’s make one thing clear right off the bat. This race has three Bob Baffert horses in it. He may have moved them out of his barn so that they can qualify for the Kentucky Derby, but it’s little more than a thinly veiled ruse.
I’m vaguely aware of who Tim Yakteen is, and I’m also aware that he’s his own trainer with his own stable. But anyone who truly believes that these horses are under the direction of anyone but Baffert are kidding themselves. He’s trying to win a Derby from afar and he’s taking half of this six-horse field to do it. Let’s see who’s standing in his way.
Road to the Derby: Wood Memorial Stakes Analysis
If an introductory paragraph is the only thing standing in the way of this article getting published, you all wouldn’t mind if I fudged it a little, right? Like, if I were to ask a bunch of silly rhetorical questions to fill two or three paragraphs at the beginning here, would it really be the worst thing?
Or do you want me to go all out after all? Do you want me introduce the Wood Memorial as it deserves to be introduced? Do you expect me to wax poetic about the 1973 running of the race, when Secretariat finished third behind Angle Light and Sham? Or maybe you’d prefer if I mentioned the 2005 running, when Bellamy Road scared the living hell out of every racing fan with a 120 BSF that he never came close to replicating? Maybe there are some fans of the 2000 running, when Fusaichi Pegasus won and became the last Kentucky Derby runner to win the Aqueduct prep race before — would that be entertaining?
Road to the Derby: Jeff Ruby Steaks Analysis
I’ll be straightforward with readers; this year’s running of the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks is not a useful prep race for the Kentucky Derby. The winner may appear in the race, but that horse will almost certainly be up against it in their next start.
The difficulty of handicapping a race like this only makes its uselessness all the more frustrating. Deliberating between horses running on three different surfaces at a number of different tracks makes it more of a dartboard race than anything else. I’ve made conclusions where I can, but you’ll all have to give me a little rope on this one. Let’s get into it.