Category: Analysis

Belmont Analysis: Saturday, June 11, 2022

If the Breeders’ Cup is never going to come to Belmont Park, then we’ll just have to go ahead and make our own championship weekend. In addition to the Belmont Stakes, the third leg of the Triple Crown, it’s hard to imagine a card of higher quality at this point in the racing season.

In nine graded stakes today, racing fans will have the privilege to watch some of the best at every distance and surface. Champions will be tested and new faces will undoubtedly stake their claim as the next ones in line. A select few may even begin to make cases as superstars, while others are already living legends. Admittedly, this sort of talk doesn’t always lead to profitability for bettors, as the presence of great horses often lead to short prices and small fields. But days like this are undoubtedly the life blood of the sport and should be appreciated for the showcase and spectacle they provide. Let’s get into it. read more

2022 Belmont Stakes Preview

The handicapping adages about the Belmont Stakes are so plentiful and unique that the race nearly qualifies as its very own branch within the sport. The demanding 1 ½-mile distance is the unmistakable defining feature of the third leg of the Triple Crown, and because the horses have never run that far (and will likely never run that far again), theories abound about the way to win it.

Some say it’s a jockey’s race. If that’s the case, long shot Barber Road has the advantage this year, as his champion rider Joel Rosario is the only one in the field with two wins in the Belmont (Tonalist in 2014 and Sir Winston in 2019). Others say the pedigrees tell the tale. It’s no coincidence that three horses in this field descend from Tapit, the sire of last year’s Belmont winner, Essential Quality. Some like closers while others like front runners, and pace plays a part more than it does at any other traditional distance. read more

A Look Back: Reviewing Guest Picks for the 2022 Preakness

Necessity is the mother of invention, and I really needed to sleep. When guests came forward to provide their Preakness analysis for Paddy’s Picks last week, I assumed that I would be able to produce an article on the day of my graduation ceremony. I was even willing to put it together during the ceremony itself. But in my black robes on a 90-degree day on Saturday, I entered a nearly incoherent state by noon, and couldn’t do much more than sit and stare at the floor until my name was called to receive a diploma. I would apologize, but many of the guests in this article were present with me that day and were similarly delirious. So instead of apologizing, I’m offering a new alternative. read more

2022 Preakness Stakes Preview

Anyone catch that race two weeks ago?

For those of you who invested four months of reading into my “Road to the Derby” series, I have no apology or explanation for what happened on the first Saturday in May. All I can say is that horse racing can be wildly unpredictable. In order to pick Rich Strike to win the Kentucky Derby, I would’ve required divine intervention or complete abandon of reason. But some people won money, didn’t they?

Concerning the owners of Rich Strike and their decision to skip the Preakness to focus on the Belmont, I think it’s a cowardly move that also makes sense. It’s an unwritten rule that a healthy Derby winner must run in the Preakness, but it’s also clear to most that he would’ve been hard-pressed to repeat. As my analysis is about to make clear, there’s a very likely winner here, one that Rich Strike should be familiar with. Let’s get into it. read more

The People’s Race: Kentucky Derby Guest Analysis

Everyone needs a pick for the Kentucky Derby. It’s mandatory in my opinion. Every year in May, 20 entrants run in the most chaotic event in North American horse racing; it’s an opportunity for the most experienced and most fun-loving to congregate for a relatively random chance at a massive payout. 

For the race that everyone should have a pick for, I asked — well, almost everyone, but I tried to focus on people that wouldn’t have picked a horse otherwise. Annoying people in the name of racing awareness is kind of my thing at this point. They never see it coming. Within this chaotic piece, prophecies, gut feelings, mispronunciations and sound logic await. I’ve made no attempt to organize any of it. Happy Derby Day! read more

Road to the Derby: Kentucky Derby Analysis

We’re at our last stop, aren’t we? After months of studying in an effort to understand the Kentucky Derby, 20 horses will now converge at Churchill Downs. I’ve made money on a few of them, lost more on others, but it has all led to this. Let’s see if I’ve learned anything.

By now, I’ve waxed poetic about the history, opined about current events in the racing world and given you a little about my personal life in this series along the way. Hell, I told my readers about an ill-fated karaoke experience, if that ever meant anything to you. But as the Derby approaches, this one should come down to the analysis. Let’s get to it. read more

Fillies, No Fellas: Kentucky Oaks Guest Analysis

Most years, the running of the Kentucky Oaks the day before the Kentucky Derby is little more than a stepping stone to the feature event of the weekend. After all, most fillies simply aren’t as fast as the colts, and the Oaks represents their initiation into all-female competition for the rest of their careers. 

But sometimes, the Kentucky Oaks represents the first step in one of the most interesting circumstances in racing: a filly proving herself and going on to face the boys. In this sense, it represents hope and doesn’t happen often. Rachel Alexandra did it in 2009, winning the Oaks before defeating Derby winner Mine That Bird in the Preakness. Swiss Skydiver did it in 2020, finishing second in the Oaks before defeating Derby winner Authentic. This year, four fillies seem qualified to take this rare step forward. This isn’t just your average year. read more

Paddy’s Picks 2022 Kentucky Oaks Preview

Happy Derby Eve everyone! Before we culminate our journey to the Kentucky Derby, it’s just as important to take a look at the Kentucky Oaks, especially this year’s running. 

This year’s Oaks field is one of the most competitive that I’ve ever seen, to the point that at least four fillies could have easily been contenders in the Derby if they had chosen to run against the boys. Secret Oath, Nest, Echo Zulu and Kathleen O. are a stellar quartet, and any of them could win in a race that will likely take place in the rain and mud.  read more

Road to the Derby: Blue Grass Stakes Analysis

It’s not our final destination in Kentucky, but it feels good to finally make it into the Bluegrass State after a thrilling, wide open Derby prep season. The Blue Grass has never been my favorite of the Derby preps, but there’s always someone worth keeping an eye on. 

In 2020, it was the filly Swiss Skydiver, who lost to Art Collector in the Blue Grass before defeating Horse of the Year Authentic in the Preakness. Last year, Essential Quality won the race before taking the Belmont, Jim Dandy and Travers Stakes later in the season. read more

Road to the Derby: Santa Anita Derby Analysis

Let’s make one thing clear right off the bat. This race has three Bob Baffert horses in it. He may have moved them out of his barn so that they can qualify for the Kentucky Derby, but it’s little more than a thinly veiled ruse.

I’m vaguely aware of who Tim Yakteen is, and I’m also aware that he’s his own trainer with his own stable. But anyone who truly believes that these horses are under the direction of anyone but Baffert are kidding themselves. He’s trying to win a Derby from afar and he’s taking half of this six-horse field to do it. Let’s see who’s standing in his way. read more