Category: Analysis

Race of the Day: Amsterdam Stakes, July 31, 2022

The Amsterdam Stakes is typically one of Saratoga’s hidden gems in a meet full of phenomenal racing. In the last three years, Shancelot, Yaupon and Jackie’s Warrior have won the event and went on to become top-level sprinters. There may not be any world beaters in this year’s field, but there’s plenty on display to make it interesting.

The 2022 Amsterdam field features a lot of interesting handicapping angles and some decent prices on competitive runners. Many of the favorites are coming off of layoffs and the long shots aren’t out of it on paper, while one precocious gelding may end up being more dangerous than all of them. It may be the sort of race that’s a little too complex to consistently make money on, but it has more than enough to qualify as Sunday’s Race of the Day. Let’s take a look. read more

Race of the Day: Jim Dandy Stakes, July 30, 2022

It feels irresponsible to consider the Jim Dandy Stakes anything other than a premier horse race worthy of fans’ attention. The argument can be made that short fields are ruining horse racing and that the Race of the Day today is an uninteresting one, but I consider those arguments blasphemous.

Regarding complaints of a small field, I disagree with the notion that there aren’t enough horses to go around. That’s true at some tracks, but it’s an absurd thing to say about Saratoga. Yesterday’s Curlin Stakes featured a full field of nine three-year-olds at the same distance, including two Triple Crown runners and many more contenders. The problem isn’t a lack of competition; no one wants to run into a buzzsaw until they have to.  read more

Race of the Day: Curlin Stakes, July 29, 2022

Today’s Race of the Day is the Curlin Stakes at Saratoga, a restricted race for three-year-olds without a graded stakes win. It’s reminiscent of my Derby prep analyses from earlier this year and features some familiar faces, mostly Triple Crown rejects and runners looking to take a step forward this summer. It’s an exciting mix of talented horses and there are multiple angles worth examining closely.

Before we take a look, I feel the need to make a halfhearted apology. After rushing to publish yesterday’s Race of the Day on a tight schedule, I checked in later on to discover that all my work was in vain, as a sudden rainstorm in upstate New York took the event off the turf. I would fully apologize to my readers for giving them meaningless analysis, but I also feel compelled to hold my head high, as my top selection was apparently ready to go on both surfaces and won at 5-2.  You’re welcome? Let’s try to make it two in a row in the Curlin. read more

Race of the Day: Saratoga Optional Claiming, July 28, 2022

A job that I prepared to take on last night was delayed after I crashed, but the Race of the Day for July 28 is finally here! The choices today were a little sparse, as the only stakes race at Saratoga today is the Birdstone, a marathon on dirt dominated by Fearless and Lone Rock. Rather than state the obvious, I decided to look further down the card, and I’ve landed on a race I like.

This allowance optional claiming field is essentially in the same division as many of the runners who competed in the Colonial Cup, yesterday’s Race of the Day. I promise to branch out soon, but these turf races are very enjoyable to handicap and they’re sure to come up again. I hope readers are with me. read more

Race of the Day: Colonial Cup, July 27, 2022

I’ve tried this format in the past and I’m going to try it again. Stick with me. Nearly every time I open a racing form, I find a race that catches at least some of my attention. The problem is that I don’t always have time to play a full card and share my thoughts with Paddy’s Picks readers. So… Race of the Day.

In what I hope will be a consistent segment on the site, I’m going to provide analysis for a single race that caught my eye on that particular day. The horses will usually be classy, turf racing will come up often and oddities will be prioritized. You know, the usual on this website. read more

International Spotlight: 2022 Sussex Stakes Analysis

Do people read on their morning commutes? I guess most people drive and don’t do all that much reading. But for those of you with the ability to check in on Paddy’s Picks this morning, perhaps I can something to get your Wednesdays started right. Welcome to the International Spotlight.

Every now and again, I notice a big race occurring somewhere in the world that American racing fans will likely never acknowledge. These races may appear peripherally to Americans on Breeders’ Cup days, but for the most part, some of the most talented runners in the world remain a mystery to them. I’d like to change that. read more

Monmouth Analysis: Saturday, July 23, 2022

When I visited Monmouth Park last week on a trip with family, the eight-race card on Friday felt underwhelming until I remembered that Haskell Day was coming. Then it all made sense.

The 14-race Haskell Day card is one of the greatest days on the American racing calendar every year, featuring massive fields, competitive racing at multiple levels and the Haskell Stakes, one of the premier races in the three-year-old division. Some of the earlier races in the day are also the hardest to bet on, washing many bettors out before they can even get to the glitzy feature races later on. As if day-to-day handicapping at Saratoga wasn’t hard enough, Monmouth’s big day represents a handicapping marathon designed to flummox bettors. Let’s get into it. read more

2022 Haskell Stakes Preview

The eyes of the racing world turn once more to… New Jersey? Regardless of one’s thoughts about the state itself, the Haskell Stakes at Monmouth Park is one of the preeminent races for three-year-olds in the United States. Won by the likes of American Pharoah, Rachel Alexandra and Holy Bull in past years, it has contributed to the careers of some of the greatest runners in American racing history. Another year presents new opportunities.

In a 2022 Haskell field featuring three Kentucky Derby runners, the colt entering with the most buzz didn’t run in any of the Triple Crown races. Coming off a dominant win in the G1 Woody Stephens, Jack Christopher has electrified the division and will try to stretch out in distance in his fifth career start. His main foe is Taiba, a precocious colt returning to Bob Baffert’s barn after the trainer relinquished him for the Kentucky Derby. A full field beyond them should pose unique challenges as well.  read more

Belmont Analysis: Saturday, June 11, 2022

If the Breeders’ Cup is never going to come to Belmont Park, then we’ll just have to go ahead and make our own championship weekend. In addition to the Belmont Stakes, the third leg of the Triple Crown, it’s hard to imagine a card of higher quality at this point in the racing season.

In nine graded stakes today, racing fans will have the privilege to watch some of the best at every distance and surface. Champions will be tested and new faces will undoubtedly stake their claim as the next ones in line. A select few may even begin to make cases as superstars, while others are already living legends. Admittedly, this sort of talk doesn’t always lead to profitability for bettors, as the presence of great horses often lead to short prices and small fields. But days like this are undoubtedly the life blood of the sport and should be appreciated for the showcase and spectacle they provide. Let’s get into it. read more

2022 Belmont Stakes Preview

The handicapping adages about the Belmont Stakes are so plentiful and unique that the race nearly qualifies as its very own branch within the sport. The demanding 1 ½-mile distance is the unmistakable defining feature of the third leg of the Triple Crown, and because the horses have never run that far (and will likely never run that far again), theories abound about the way to win it.

Some say it’s a jockey’s race. If that’s the case, long shot Barber Road has the advantage this year, as his champion rider Joel Rosario is the only one in the field with two wins in the Belmont (Tonalist in 2014 and Sir Winston in 2019). Others say the pedigrees tell the tale. It’s no coincidence that three horses in this field descend from Tapit, the sire of last year’s Belmont winner, Essential Quality. Some like closers while others like front runners, and pace plays a part more than it does at any other traditional distance. read more