Category: Analysis

Paddy’s Picks Podcast: 2022 Breeders’ Cup Day 2, Part 1

Intro (00:00-00:39)

The song for this episode is “Jazz Winkle” by Eggy Toast. I’m not sure if it beats the banjo from yesterday’s episode, but it’s certainly an interesting way to begin Day 2 of Breeders’ Cup coverage on Paddy’s Picks. In this episode, my guests and I will be looking at the first five Breeders’ Cup races on Saturday’s card at Keeneland. This is our first look at older horses in this championship series, and there’s plenty to discuss, so settle in and enjoy!

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint w/ Maddie Sandholm (00:45-19:48)

Paddy’s Pick: 3- Chi Town Lady read more

Paddy’s Picks Podcast: 2022 Breeders’ Cup, Day 1

Let’s try something new. Instead of doing separate analysis and guest contributions for this year’s Breeders’ Cup, I’ve decided to combine the two in a massive three-part podcast series. To navigate what is admittedly a massive first episode for Friday’s card, I’ve provided a sort of guide below.

Intro (00:00-01:39)

For those of you wondering, the song is called “St. Louis Tickle,” and for those of you still here, welcome to the inaugural Paddy’s Picks podcast, as well as Day 1 of Breeders’ Cup coverage. For those of who you don’t know, my name is Patrick Moquin, and I’ve run Paddy’s Picks since 2020 as a way to combine my passions for writing and horse racing. Today, we’re trying something a little different. read more

International Spotlight: 2022 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Analysis

Paddy’s Picks goes international today with early morning analysis for the G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, the richest horse race in France. I intended to write more for Paddy’s Picks this week, but an illness has prevented me from doing much of anything productive in recent days. 

An extremely entertaining and challenging 20-horse race at Longchamp was supposed to be the culmination of my efforts, but it will instead have to serve as my return to work on the website. Fortunately, there are many days worth of angles and analysis in this event, more than enough for any handicapper on a Sunday morning. Let’s take a look. read more

Saturday Spotlight: 2022 Travers Stakes Analysis

The Travers Stakes always comes up at an awkward point in the Paddy’s Picks calendar. With a full slate of work due at Fordham in recent years and now at Columbia, publishing consistent analysis in late August is always a difficult task. There are few races in the United States that would necessitate dropping everything for a Saturday, but Saratoga provides.

This year’s running of the Midsummer Derby is wide open, with at least six of the eight runners qualifying as legitimate contenders. The top three finishers in the Kentucky Derby, as well as the Preakness and Haskell winners, are all making an appearance in a race that typically concludes the three-year-old season with the Breeders’ Cup looming. read more

Race of the Day: Galway Stakes, August 11, 2022

Today’s Race of the Day is the Galway Stakes at Saratoga, surprising no one even slightly familiar with this website. Not only is it a turf sprint stakes race, but it’s also a race I’ll have the opportunity to see in person, as my family and I are taking our annual trip upstate this week.

Not only is today the second day of the Moquin family’s Saratoga trip, but it also happens to be my father’s birthday! Instead of giving him a tangible gift (a hit-and-miss proposition for a guy who usually just wants new shirts or socks or a pair of slippers), we’ve decided to spend his day at one of his favorite venues. The fact that I happen to benefit from this arrangement is purely coincidental and none of your business. Happy Birthday Dad! read more

Race of the Day: Incredible Revenge Stakes, August 7, 2022

With three stakes races on Sunday’s card at Saratoga, it may seem odd that I’m turning my attention to the Incredible Revenge Stakes at Monmouth Park. There are a few reasons for this, some cautionary and some fun.

First off, with rain in the forecast upstate, I don’t feel like handicapping any turf races if they wind up moving to the dirt. Visualizing rain at Saratoga, the card becomes much less interesting, so I decided to begin considering other options. I didn’t have to look long.

This Incredible Revenge field is actually a lot of fun in its own right, featuring some top-notch runners and a handful of interesting angles. So even though we’re shipping the Race of the Day to Jersey for the day to escape some showers, there’s still plenty to enjoy here. Are you with me? read more

Saratoga Analysis: Saturday, August 6, 2022

It’s Whitney Day at Saratoga, and that deserves some special treatment. As one of the most stacked cards on the calendar during the most important meet in American horse racing, there are few better days for racing fans to enjoy.

Beyond the G1 Whitney, a race featuring superstars Life Is Good, Olympiad and Hot Rod Charlie, Saratoga is also hosting the G1 Saratoga Derby Invitational, G1 Test, G2 Glen Falls and the Lure Stakes. Many of these races will have implications in the Breeders’ Cup, featuring early showdowns between the best runners in the country and a few from elsewhere. read more

Race of the Day: Hall of Fame Stakes, August 5, 2022

The Hall of Fame Stakes at Saratoga is always a fun event overshadowed by bigger races on the schedule. Well, I have a series for that, basically a spotlight that forces you all to read, and damn it if I’m not going to use it. 

As a one-mile turf race for three-year-olds, the Hall of Fame is the sort of race that lands firmly in my wheelhouse. The problem: every horse in the race has a chance. This isn’t an exaggeration; of the nine horses in the race, there are nine separate cases one could make for a victory. Unlike the Alydar yesterday, which was more or less straightforward, Paddy’s Picks is unable to provide definitive analysis here. Consider it more of a second opinion. read more

Race of the Day: Alydar Stakes, August 4, 2022

The Alydar Stakes may not offer a large field this year, but the restricted stakes at Saratoga features plenty of recognizable faces looking to kickstart their 2022 seasons. It also feels a little like deja vu, if I can explain.

Last week, I noticed that the Curlin Stakes seemed to accommodate three-year-olds that weren’t quite good enough to compete in the G2 Jim Dandy. It seems that the Alydar serves the same purpose for older horses who aren’t quite good enough to win the G1 Whitney on Saturday.  read more

Race of the Day: Governor’s Stakes, August 3, 2022

Today’s Race of the Day is the Governor’s Stakes, an Indiana statebred stakes race for three-year-olds. Allow me to explain.

Following a two-day break on Monday and Tuesday, I expected to return to Paddy’s Picks on Wednesday and analyze a stakes race at Saratoga. That plan had to change, however, when the Shine Again didn’t draw enough runners to be carded. With a few unappetizing allowance races remaining on the card, I had no choice but to look elsewhere.

As it turns out, there’s only one track in the United States that is offering any form of stakes racing today. Colonial Downs and Delaware Park let me down with underwhelming cards. Outside of Pennsylvania Derby Day, I wouldn’t publicly bet on Parx if every other track in the country burned to the ground. I was running out of tracks. read more