Category: Analysis

Belmont Racing Festival Analysis: Friday, June 9, 2023

For the rest of my life, Belmont Stakes weekend will always make me think of Paddy’s Picks most.

When I first launched this website on June 5, 2020, the reception I received from readers in every corner of my life was overwhelming. I’m grateful to have this platform to return to again and again, and I’m just as grateful that many of you have stuck around.

At first, Paddy’s Picks was simply a preferable alternative to watching the grass grow in the backyard and taking trips to 7/11 in a hazmat suit. The pandemic affected all of us in different ways, and my unhinged response to the chaos was to get a pony blog going. The site has evolved as the world returned to normal and I took on other responsibilities, but every now and again, I like to turn back the clock. It’s time for some classic full-card analysis, as it was in the beginning. I hope you’re all with me. read more

Handicapping Medley: Saturday, May 27, 2023

For those of you who don’t know me too well, you should know that I get distracted very easily. It’s hard for me to directly progress from one thought to another, and even as I write this paragraph, I’m tempted to stray. This cognitive wanderlust applies to horse racing as well, and I might have finally created an article that satisfies my curiosity.

Whenever I peruse entries for a certain day of racing across the country, I invariably find myself drawn to races at different tracks. Weekend cards are especially frustrating for me, as I can’t possibly analyze every event that entices me. But what if I tried? What if I took note of every race I liked and created a sort of handicapping medley? What if that was what I named the article? Woah! read more

Race of the Day: 2023 Preakness Stakes Analysis

It’s not the Preakness we all want, featuring almost no returning Derby runners and few compelling new faces, but the Triple Crown trail continues at Pimlico nonetheless. Two weeks ago, the number of horses eligible to win the Triple Crown dropped to one. That one will be tested today.

While I’m hoping that the Belmont Stakes comes up deeper than this event, there’s still plenty to look at in this field as Mage takes his next step on the most challenging path in racing. Let’s take a look:

Pimlico, Race 13

Preakness Stakes (G1) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 3/16 Miles on the Dirt read more

Race of the Day: 2023 Kentucky Derby Analysis

I woke up this morning and the sky was falling. Several of my guest handicappers had already heard the news and were frantically texting me. It’s taken a few hours, but I believe I’m finally ready to complete my Derby analysis once and for all.

Kentucky Derby favorite Forte’s withdrawal from the race this morning sent shockwaves throughout the racing community as everyone frantically tries to evaluate the race without him in it. It feels more wide open than ever and I’ve had to slowly come to a new understanding. read more

Why They’ll Lose: Drawing a Line Through Every Horse in the 2023 Kentucky Derby

Unlike my previous article, this is is somewhat outside my comfort zone. I definitely prefer looking for upside in horse racing, as well as most other things, so finding fault in each Kentucky Derby runner was a unique challenge. Such an exercise is necessary, however.

Before any bettor can fully throw his support behind a runner, understanding how that horse might lose is imperative. Locks are incredibly rare, as the random nature of the sport makes them technically impossible.

It hurt me to insult some of the horses in this race, as they’ve truly impressed me and will have my support this Saturday. Others were fairly easy to rule out for any number of reasons, some plain and some more nuanced. read more

Why They’ll Win: Making a Case for Every Horse in the 2023 Kentucky Derby

We’ve all had that moment at the track where we look at a horse in the Daily Racing Form and get hooked. All the signs of a winner are there, and the warning bells that ring perpetually in handicappers’ ears become dulled by an attractive price on the tote board.

It’s surprisingly easy to grow enamored by stats on paper, especially when they’re inextricably tied to potentially profitable flesh and blood on the track. But when these feelings set in, some self-doubt may form as well. read more

Derby Prep Saturday: Cross Country Analysis

Three important preps for the Kentucky Derby will occur Saturday across the country in the span of an hour. Winners of the Blue Grass Stakes, Santa Anita Derby and Wood Memorial Stakes will qualify automatically for the Kentucky Derby. All three races feature wide open fields. Have I built up enough drama?

While I haven’t been able to produce much content for Paddy’s Picks as of late, it doesn’t mean that I’ve been far from the racing scene. I’ve been paying more than enough attention to know that today’s slate of preps provide as much opportunity to horsemen as they will to bettors. Let’s take a look, starting with the Blue Grass. read more

2023 Saudi Cup Analysis: Beating Taiba and Other Follies

When the gates open for the 2023 Saudi Cup, 13 highly talented horses will emerge to begin what should hopefully be an exciting race. For two minutes, these horses will be untethered from their owners and trainers and bound only to their riders, the best from around the world. That’s what I’m choosing to focus on.

In truth, I struggled with the decision to provide analysis for this race on Paddy’s Picks. Political and social issues in Saudi Arabia are gravely serious and the monarchy’s attempts to sanitize its global image through high-profile sporting events are shamelessly transparent. But Taiba doesn’t know about any of that, does he? read more

Race of the Day: 2023 Pegasus World Cup Analysis

In its seventh year as the premier horse racing event… in January, the Pegasus World Cup hasn’t exactly captured the imagination of horsemen, nor has it appealed much to fans. The 1 ⅛-mile race on the dirt at Gulfstream Park doesn’t typically attract international stars as the race’s title would suggest and a purse decrease in 2020 hasn’t helped matters.

But though the fields for the invitational have suffered in terms of quality in recent years, they have also remained large, as 12 runners typically line up regardless of the circumstances. After a 2022 season in which nearly every American star of the sport retired, this year’s Pegasus field lacks a killer and could therefore provide value. read more

Building A Super: 2022 Malibu Stakes w/ Kristina Stevanovic & Niko Konstantellis

Santa Anita, Race 10                                                                   

Malibu Stakes (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt

Welcome back one and all to a holiday edition of the Paddy’s Picks Podcast! Today, we’ll be looking at the G1 Malibu Stakes at Santa Anita in a slightly altered format. After speaking to an army of contributors for this year’s Breeders’ Cup and enjoying the process immensely, I received an idea from guest Kristina Stevanovic, who suggested that a few people should return someday to put together a superfecta live for listeners. In other words, come to an agreement on a bet that includes the four horses that we believe will finish first, second, third and fourth in the race. I’ll be doing just that with her help, along with Niko Konstantellis, another longtime Paddy’s Picks contributor. For those of you who were expecting fellow Fordham alum George McKnight to join as well, that was the plan at one point but he unfortunately had to cancel at the last minute. The quartet became a trio but we eventually came to an agreement after some bickering. Please enjoy. read more