Analysis - Paddy's Picks

Paddy’s Picks 2024 Kentucky Derby Analysis

A Kentucky Derby without Bob Baffert is like an oil tanker without a fireworks display. Plenty of things can still go wrong, but you’re feeling a lot safer onboard, aren’t you?

Instead of transferring his Derby hopefuls to his colleague, Tim Yakteen, this year, Baffert tried to get around his Churchill Downs ban through the Kentucky Court of Appeals. The court’s decision to enforce the racetrack’s restrictions is a clear win for those who consider Baffert’s doping history to be a stain on the sport. From a purely competitive point of view, however, it is unfortunate that superstar colt Muth, along with a few others in Baffert’s stable, are therefore ineligible to run. read more

Make Your Case: Guest Hancidappers Defend Every Horse in the 2024 Kentucky Derby

In the early 1600s, Catherine de Vivonne, marquise de Rambouillet, grew tired of the social scene in France and began hosting small events in her salon. In time, these events and others like it became highly fashionable, allowing intellectuals across various disciplines to exchange concepts and ideas on the basis of reason. Thus began the Age of Enlightenment.

Nearly 200 years later, King Louis XVI was beheaded by guillotine in the Place de la Concorde. 22 years after that, the tyrant Napoleon Bonaparte was exiled for the second time and sent to die off the coast of Africa. read more

Race of the Day: 2024 Pegasus World Cup Analysis

To be completely candid with all of you, I’m not a huge fan of the Pegasus World Cup. I enjoyed it in the very early days, when it boasted a $12 million purse and innovative invitation system. The very first running in 2017 was a Breeders’ Cup Classic rematch between Arrogate and California Chrome, and I genuinely thought I was witnessing the beginning of a storied horse racing tradition.

But it’s 2024 now, and it’s still very cold in January. And instead of Arrogate and California Chrome, I have to watch the 12 best dirt horses in the country that didn’t retire at the end of 2023. Only one of them has a G1 stakes win. As for the international flavor of this World Cup race, O’Connor was bred in Chile and came to the United States in late 2022. That’s it. read more

Paddy’s Picks Analysis: 2023 Breeders’ Cup Friday

The Breeders’ Cup is so well-timed to distract me from important work every year. After several weeks of almost nothing to do, it always comes along at a point when I’m as busy as possible.

Between work and my classes at Columbia, I wouldn’t have had enough time to release Paddy’s Picks analysis for the Breeders’ Cup this year. Fortunately, I did most of my analysis ahead of time, and the West Coast event gave me a few extra hours this morning to sleep before finalizing this copy. read more

Race of the Day: 2023 Travers Stakes Analysis

Because I’ve been working for a week straight to complete my thesis project for Columbia, I originally had no plans to provide Paddy’s Picks coverage for the Travers Stakes. But this morning, five of my usual guests texted me to complain that they hadn’t been asked for a pick.

I was so proud of them for knowing about the race and guilty for trying to skirt my duties that I’ve decided to reverse course and provide some analysis myself for the Midsummer Derby, one of my favorite racing events and one I would have enjoyed as a fan regardless of my schedule. A review of guest picks will come sometime next week, as I apparently have readers and cannot afford to lose them to other casual Long Island-based pony blogs. Let’s get into it. read more

Race of the Day: 2023 Ohio Derby Analysis

On a typical racing calendar, the G3 Ohio Derby at Thistledown would probably fly past my radar. The race usually consists of a few washed out Triple Crown contenders and an obvious favorite who wins going away. But this year is special, mostly because there’s a horse I’ve been keeping a very keen eye on for several months.

In my Belmont Stakes analysis, I said that I believed the G3 Peter Man to be a stronger race than the Preakness this year. It seems like Arcangelo confirmed that when he won the third leg of the Triple Crown handily, several weeks after beating Bishops Bay in a tight photo finish. read more

Belmont Racing Festival Analysis: Saturday, June 10, 2023

Who needs the Breeders’ Cup when you can just make your own every year? Between the conclusion of the Triple Crown, new challenges for older horses and some of the best races of the year on American turf, the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival offers more than nearly any other event in the sport.

In addition to the countless quality horses competing on the track this afternoon, it feels immensely gratifying to have so many people to share this weekend with. As we speak, my family is setting up a small picnic in the backyard to watch the day of races. My friends going to the event itself have all asked me for links to purchase the Daily Racing Form. read more

Race of the Day: 2023 Belmont Stakes Analysis

At the end of every Triple Crown season, the Belmont Stakes ushers in a new era for three-year-olds as they begin the transition to careers as older horses. This happens to be a year in which the spotlight isn’t quite as bright, but the race remains the preeminent event of a spectacular weekend of racing.

Between the distance, field quality and venue, the Belmont Stakes may possibly be my favorite race each year. That may or may not be because I’ve made a lot of money on the event in past years, but the appeal of a special day for my home track undoubtedly plays a part as well. read more

Belmont Racing Festival Analysis: Friday, June 9, 2023

For the rest of my life, Belmont Stakes weekend will always make me think of Paddy’s Picks most.

When I first launched this website on June 5, 2020, the reception I received from readers in every corner of my life was overwhelming. I’m grateful to have this platform to return to again and again, and I’m just as grateful that many of you have stuck around.

At first, Paddy’s Picks was simply a preferable alternative to watching the grass grow in the backyard and taking trips to 7/11 in a hazmat suit. The pandemic affected all of us in different ways, and my unhinged response to the chaos was to get a pony blog going. The site has evolved as the world returned to normal and I took on other responsibilities, but every now and again, I like to turn back the clock. It’s time for some classic full-card analysis, as it was in the beginning. I hope you’re all with me. read more

Handicapping Medley: Saturday, May 27, 2023

For those of you who don’t know me too well, you should know that I get distracted very easily. It’s hard for me to directly progress from one thought to another, and even as I write this paragraph, I’m tempted to stray. This cognitive wanderlust applies to horse racing as well, and I might have finally created an article that satisfies my curiosity.

Whenever I peruse entries for a certain day of racing across the country, I invariably find myself drawn to races at different tracks. Weekend cards are especially frustrating for me, as I can’t possibly analyze every event that entices me. But what if I tried? What if I took note of every race I liked and created a sort of handicapping medley? What if that was what I named the article? Woah! read more