We’ve all had that moment at the track where we look at a horse in the Daily Racing Form and get hooked. All the signs of a winner are there, and the warning bells that ring perpetually in handicappers’ ears become dulled by an attractive price on the tote board.
It’s surprisingly easy to grow enamored by stats on paper, especially when they’re inextricably tied to potentially profitable flesh and blood on the track. But when these feelings set in, some self-doubt may form as well.
Maybe things aren’t as clear as they seem. Maybe you’re not as good at this as you think you are. Well, you know you’re not as good at this as you think you are — no one is. So you turn to your friends next to you and ask for their thoughts on your long shot. You invariably get two responses.
The first type of assistance is a meager sort of acceptance of your pick. “Maybe today’s the day,” they’ll say. “Can’t rule out improvement, this is a wide open field,” another will chime in. Maybe they’ll even give you a supporting angle, something to help along your argument that this hopeless long shot is due. These are the track folks who follow rules of etiquette and superstition to a tee. Personally, I don’t follow their tenets religiously, but I do believe in several of them, including this one: Never, ever talk someone out of a long shot.
In this article, I have managed to make a winning case for every single horse in the Kentucky Derby this year. Some were more challenging than others, but they’ve all been given a chance. For those of you who have been agonizing over the decision to back a 30-1 shot for weeks, look no further for support and encouragement. I’m here, optimistic to a fault and ready to celebrate with you when it cashes.
Oh, what’s the second type of friend’s assistance at the track, you ask? They’re the ones who tell you you’re an idiot. But we’ll talk more about them tomorrow. For now, let’s take a look on the bright side, shall we?
1- Hit Show
I don’t think he would be 30-1 on the morning line in the Derby if he had won that toss-up photo finish in the G2 Wood Memorial. That loss by a nose shouldn’t concern bettors too much, however, as this colt’s most valuable attribute is his consistency. In four of five career starts, the Brad Cox trainee has worked out the same exact trip, settling midpack before making a respectable bid for the lead. This running style could serve him well in a crowded Derby field and he hasn’t demonstrated any issues in two starts at 1 ⅛ miles. The connections will have him ready.
2- Verifying
Another Brad Cox trainee on the inside, this colt could be one of the best value plays in the field if he can find the right trip. Since his juvenile season, he’s always shown flashes of talent but hasn’t been able to settle into consistent form. A blowout allowance win at Oaklawn to start 2023 was encouraging, but a traffic in the G2 Rebel next time out hid the extent of his improvement. This was confirmed in the G1 Blue Grass, when he earned a 99 BSF after a stretch duel with fellow runner Tapit Trice. Losing that race by a neck inflates his Derby odds, but he still fits very well in this field. He’s finally on the right track and Tyler Gaffalione is staying to ride.
3- Two Phil’s
This colt of relatively humble origins seemed like little more than a pack runner on the Derby trail until his last start, when he exploded to earn a 101 BSF in the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks, winning by 5 ¼ lengths. The improvement on a synthetic track is sure to scare off some bettors, but remember that when the Jeff Ruby was known as the Spiral Stakes, it produced 2011 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom. With the best speed figure in the field going into the Derby, he could be an extremely dangerous contender if he can run back to his last race.
4- Confidence Game
Yes, this colt hasn’t run since February, and that is a very serious and legitimate concern for Derby bettors. That being said, he did manage to put bettors on notice before the layoff, winning the G2 Rebel in the slop at 18-1 odds. To make up for his lack of a prep race since, trainer Keith Desormeaux has been putting his colt through a rigorous training program and he’s excelled, working at a mile on April 14 before firing a bullet at five furlongs in 59 seconds flat on April 29. He has more speed than most in this uncharacteristically slow Derby field and is the only one with two wins at Churchill Downs.
5- Tapit Trice
The second choice in this year’s Derby has rattled off four straight victories at four different tracks going back to December. After taking the G3 Tampa Bay Derby in impressive closing fashion, he finally found a challenge in the G1 Blue Grass, when fellow runner Verifying fought him all the way to the wire. This colt got the better of that exchange to win and earn a career-high 99 BSF that puts him squarely among the best contenders in this field. Todd Pletcher has a small cavalry of serious runners this year, and this one could be leading the pack at this point.
6- Kingsbarns
After two commanding wins at lower levels earlier this year, this Pletcher trainee proved he was the real deal with an easy 3 ½-length victory in the G2 Louisiana Derby. The fractions were meandering in that prep and he had everything his way, but it’s unlikely that the Derby will be much faster, which could allow him to find a similar trip at or near the front of the pack. Jose Ortiz is a highly qualified replacement for Flavian Prat and the distance shouldn’t be an issue.
7- Reincarnate
I would be very cautious before tossing this long shot. A cursory glance on paper suggests that this colt might prefer shorter distances, and that might be the case, but there are other factors to consider. Following a very gutsy win and 95 BSF in the G3 Sham in January, he made the obligatory switch from Bob Baffert’s barn to Tim Yakteen’s and shipped to Oaklawn Park to hit the Derby trail. His performance in the G2 Rebel should be disregarded, as he was shuffled back in the slop early and had to check in the stretch. If anything, his performance that day finishing third deserves merit. Then in the G1 Arkansas Derby, he got caught wide on the first turn, pressed the pacemaker the entire way and still held well for third again. He looks like an also-ran on paper, but he’s better than his most recent performances. John Velazquez stays to ride.
8- Mage
He’s lightly raced, but the improvement this colt has displayed in each of his first three starts has been remarkable. Entering the gate for the G2 Fountain of Youth in just his second start was a massive step up but he handled it very well. In fact, if not for a wide trip and traffic in the stretch, he may have been able to do even better that fourth that day behind fellow runner Forte. The two met again in the G1 Florida Derby, and this time, Mage actually made the better move, powering through the field from 12th to take the lead with a furlong left. He ultimately couldn’t hold off Forte and had to settle for second, but there are very few three-year-olds in the country who have been able to scare the champ like that. He could very well be capable of even more in his fourth outing.
9- Skinner
He only has one move, but it’s one hell of a move. This John Shirreffs colt snuck into the Derby field after originally landing on the bubble, but he deserves a spot in the field as much as any other runner. After a so-so juvenile campaign, he emerged as a three-year-old in unrecognizable fashion with a crushing maiden win. In his two subsequent starts in the G2 San Felipe and G1 Santa Anita Derby, he has made very impressive moves from the back of the pack before coming up short in the stretch. His 99 BSF last time out fits well in this field, however, and there’s a chance that his late-closing style is rewarded more outside of California. Between Zenyatta and 2005 long shot Derby winner Giacomo, Shirreffs knows how to prepare a patient runner.
10- Practical Move
As a juvenile, this runner was slightly above average but didn’t seem like the flashiest type. But with Ramon Vazquez in the saddle off a layoff, he has emerged at three as a dramatically improved colt, rattling off two straight wins on the Derby trail with matching 100 BSFs. The G1 Santa Anita Derby did not come as easily as the G2 San Felipe, but he still managed to seal the deal with a stalking trip that could serve him very well in the Derby. He’s an obvious contender on paper and his recent performances solidly support his case.
11- Disarm
Steve Asmussen didn’t give himself much time to get this one into the Derby, but the colt did everything he could. In the Louisiana Derby, his first step on the trail in late March, he closed well through extremely slow fractions to take second behind fellow runner Kingsbarns. It was a solid performance in context, but it wasn’t enough to get him into the field, so Asmussen entered him in the G3 Lexington on April 15. The fractions were somewhat more honest in that race but still weren’t conducive to closing, making his hard-fought third-place finish better than it appears on paper. The pace in the Derby may not be blistering this year, but a crowded field should set up better for midpack runners, giving this colt a legitimate opportunity that he has not yet had this year.
12- Jace’s Road
If bettors toss this colt’s two losing efforts on wet tracks, his form looks significantly better. Jockey Florent Geroux effectively guided him to a runaway wire-to-wire win in the Gun Runner back in December, earning a 90 BSF, and his only start since came in the G2 Louisiana Derby off a short layoff. He appeared somewhat dull in that third-place finish, but he has run better in the past and could appear at Churchill in sharper form in his second start since the break.
13- Sun Thunder
In order to have any winning chance, this deep closer desperately needs a favorable pace scenario. When he got one in the G2 Risen Star back in February, he was leading in the stretch and nearly pulled off a massive upset with an 89 BSF, still tied for his career best. He certainly didn’t have a chance in the glacially slow G2 Louisiana Derby and naturally improved on a slightly fairer track in the G1 Blue Grass next time out. He has definitely improved since his near-upset back in February but hasn’t experienced those closer-friendly conditions since. A crowded Derby field could set things up well for him.
14- Angel of Empire
The speed figures are a little light, but this colt has been getting better and better with each of his starts on dirt. Unlike many fluky late-closing winners, Brad Cox’s Derby hopeful followed up his thrilling G2 Risen Star victory in February with an even better-looking performance in the G1 Arkansas Derby. Instead of a frantic come-from-behind winner, he appeared more professional and wrapped up in his 4 ¼-length romp. Visually, the effort had all the makings of a future Derby winner. He seems more than ready to take the next step.
15- Forte
No need to make a case for this one. This year’s Derby favorite hasn’t taken a step out of place since winning the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last year. The champ kicked off his three-year-old campaign with a condescending win in the G2 Fountain of Youth, and though he didn’t show his best in the G1 Florida Derby next time out, he didn’t need it to win again despite facing several impressive runners. Todd Pletcher is sending an army of Derby runners this year, but this one shines brightest. It’s his race to lose.
16- Raise Cain
This colt would not be in this race if not for a chaotic G3 Gotham win, but what better way to prepare for the Derby than to thrive in the midst of chaos? Though he wasn’t as sharp visually in the G1 Blue Grass next time out, The 89 BSF he earned did demonstrate that his improvement at Aqueduct the month prior was more than a fluke. If the Derby comes down to a stampede, as it has many times in years past, this one has already proven himself to be adaptable. Rain will also help his case.
17- Derma Sotogake (Jpn)
With three runners in the extended Derby field this year, it feels like Japan is knocking on the door of a victory in Kentucky. This colt is the nation’s best hope this year, a Japanese-bred rising star who has done little wrong since switching to dirt early in his juvenile campaign. Following a dull effort in the G3 Saudi Derby in February, his three-year-old debut off a layoff, he responded emphatically to dominate the G2 UAE Derby by 5 ½ lengths. To make the performance even more impressive, he won in wire-to-wire fashion, a marked change in his running style that suggests versatility. Jockey Christophe Lemaie will travel with the horse from Europe to ride, and though the UAE Derby curse persists, this colt is the prep’s most promising product in several years.
18- Rocket Can
Following a runner-up finish to Forte in the G1 Arkansas Derby, this colt entered the Arkansas Derby as the 5-2 favorite, but a wide trip seemed to stymie his progress in the stretch. Going wide seems to be a habit for him, as he always seems to settle in the middle of the track and finish evenly. His post in the Derby won’t do him any favors in this area, but if he can somehow find a way to get closer to the rail, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect improvement at the track where he broke his maiden.
19- Lord Miles
Call the 59-1 G1 Wood Memorial winner whatever you want, but he earned that victory legitimately in a much improved performance. Though he showed very little going in Florida before his New York debut, he looked the part while stretching out in distance and dueling with fellow runner Hit Show in the stretch. The 93 BSF he earned that day is a little below what others have earned in this field, but he can likely handle longer distances and could improve again with more time.
20- Continuar (Jpn)
Some might call him the other Japanese horse in the race, but this colt earned his spot just as much as fellow runner Derma Sotogake. There’s very little he could have done in the G2 UAE Derby when his Japanese competitor got the lead to himself and wired the field, but he still tracked the leaders well and held on to third. In a more crowded field with more speed up front, he may get the chance to challenge Derma Sotogake and other contenders in a way he hasn’t been able to previously.
Also-Eligibles:
21- Cyclone Mischief
If he gets into the field, I believe this is one who could make a lot of noise. Tossing a random dud performance in the G3 Holy Bull, this Dale Romans trainee has been very professional in his three-year-old season. He has demonstrated a very versatile running style and seems to be training up to longer distances as he develops. The heart is key though, as he always demonstrate a willingness to compete, even after he has clearly given his last.
22- Mandarin Hero (Jpn)
After competing very well at his home track in Japan in five career starts, this colt proved he was the real deal when he nearly won the G1 Santa Anita Derby, coming up just short against fellow runner Practical Move and earning a 100 BSF. One could argue that he is entering the Derby with more momentum than many of the runners who made it into the main field. If he draws in, he could be an extremely dangerous contender.
23- King Russell
No one expected much of this colt going into the G1 Arkansas Derby, as he was coming off a maiden victory after four unsuccessful tries. Once he put the pieces together, however, it seems that things progressed rather quickly, as he responded well to finish second behind fellow runner Angel of Empire at 58-1 odds. He will need to take a step forward if he makes it into the Derby field, but his trajectory is sky-high at the moment.