Unlike my previous article, this is is somewhat outside my comfort zone. I definitely prefer looking for upside in horse racing, as well as most other things, so finding fault in each Kentucky Derby runner was a unique challenge. Such an exercise is necessary, however.
Before any bettor can fully throw his support behind a runner, understanding how that horse might lose is imperative. Locks are incredibly rare, as the random nature of the sport makes them technically impossible.
It hurt me to insult some of the horses in this race, as they’ve truly impressed me and will have my support this Saturday. Others were fairly easy to rule out for any number of reasons, some plain and some more nuanced.
If I put down anyone’s long shot pick, I strongly encourage that they read my piece about winning chances, which is geared more toward finding the best in every runner. This article is more focused on finding the warning signs in seemingly sure things. Let’s take a look.
1- Hit Show
The rail is an absolute killer in the Kentucky Derby and this colt drew the worst of it. Following a hard-fought but questionable defeat in the G2 Wood Memorial, he will have to deliver an improved performance to have any chance of defeating this field. He has a solid move but still hasn’t proven that he’s fast enough. I’m not sure that the post position will allow him to do more, even if he’s capable of it.
2- Verifying
This colt ran into some traffic in the G2 Rebel and earned a second chance with bettors, but it’s much harder to excuse his loss in the G1 Blue Grass. With a clean trip and fair track, he improved to earn a 99 BSF but still couldn’t hold off fellow runner Tapit Trice, who beat him fair and square at the wire. The inside post will likely cause some discomfort in the early going and it seems like he’s hit his ceiling for now.
3- Two Phil’s
He wasn’t a key Derby contender before his last start, a blowout win in the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks on a synthetic track. The 101 BSF he earned in that race dwarfs anything he has ever earned on dirt, and it’s hard to explain that as natural improvement alone. Before that start, he finished third in the G2 Risen Star behind fellow runners Angel of Empire and Sun Thunder, the latter of which is a prohibitive long shot in this race. Despite landing at 12-1 on the morning line, he still hasn’t earned a speed figure over 88 on the dirt. Local jockey Jareth Loveberry is also hard to trust in such a big race.
4- Confidence Game
Horses don’t take 10 weeks off and run in the Kentucky Derby. It doesn’t happen. If this colt had run once since winning the G2 Rebel in February, he would probably be a legitimate contender in this race. As is, however, he’s almost impossible to trust. His improvement in the Rebel also came on a sloppy track, casting doubt on the only performance that makes him interesting here.
5- Tapit Trice
No horse is infallible. With four straight victories going into the Derby, this colt is going to figure as an obvious contender. But who has he beaten? After maiden and allowance victories over the winter, he beat a very weak field in the G2 Tampa Bay Derby, featuring a pre-Wood Lord Miles and little else. Then, in the G1 Blue Grass next time out, his only other legitimate challenger was Verifying, and it took everything he had to pass that foe and win by a neck. There are more formidable runners than Verifying in this field, so he might need more to deliver again.
6- Kingsbarns
Only one horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby with three career starts going in, and this colt isn’t Justify. The only one of his three victories worth looking at is the G2 Louisiana Derby, which he won on the front end with the help of a speed-favoring track and extremely slow opening fractions. Those advantages yielded a 95 BSF, still lower than many Derby contenders who earned their figures on fairer tracks. Flavien Prat leaves to ride Angel of Empire for Brad Cox.
7- Reincarnate
I’m willing to overlook the G2 Rebel, when he got shuffled back at the start on a wet track. But in general, it does not appear that this colt has taken a step forward in his three-year-old season. He has actually regressed in three starts since a gutsy win in the G3 Sham in January, delivering flatter performances under new trainer Tim Yakteen. Angel of Empire beat him convincingly in the G1 Arkansas Derby last time out and it’s a reach to argue that he ever could have won that event.
8- Mage
Like Kingsbarns, the lack of experience here is a concern. This colt was thrust into the spotlight very early on, so a poor start in the G2 Fountain of Youth was understandable. He also had trouble in that race, making the G1 Florida Derby a prime opportunity to improve and demonstrate that he could beat Forte. A career-best performance still wasn’t enough, however, and it’s unclear if Forte even had his best that time around. He needs to take another big step forward on short notice. Luis Saez leaves to ride Tapit Trice.
9- Skinner
One-move closers like this one need a lot of luck to win races like this one, and this colt has been short on luck his entire career. In his two Derby preps this year, the move he made around the far turn caught the attention of track announcers but he flattened in the stretch each time. If he couldn’t win those races with arguably fair trips, it’s very tough to see him navigating this Derby field and winning without trouble.
10- Practical Move
This colt has been scratched and will not run.
11- Disarm
The bottom line is that he just doesn’t seem fast enough. Though he’s fought against biases and slow fractions in his last few starts, it’s unlikely that he can improve enough to win the Derby on those factors alone. This colt couldn’t even take an allowance at Oaklawn back in February. Moreover, the pace in the Derby shouldn’t be that sharp either, so even if that’s the only thing holding him back, it still might be an issue. Jose Ortiz leaves to ride Kingsbarns.
12- Jace’s Road
He might be the unlikeliest contender in the race. He nickeled and dimed his way into the Derby field but none of his performances stood out. His win in the Gun Runner back in December came under perfect front-running conditions and he should have beaten closer Disarm in the G2 Louisiana Derby last time out after chasing winner Kingsbarns around the track through slow fractions. He doesn’t even possess the sort of early speed he’ll need to actually utilize it against others in this field. Vast improvement needed.
13- Sun Thunder
This deep closer hasn’t won a race since he broke his maiden in December. Granted, he’s faced some tough competition, but many of those horses appear in this field as well. He hasn’t yet earned a speed figure over 90 and seems to need a perfect setup to have any chance, as he had in defeat in the G2 Risen Star in February. He’s already been measured and defeated by many of the contenders in this field.
14- Angel of Empire
Though he won the G2 Risen Star at 13-1, that was not his star-making and was dressed up by a closer-friendly track. If this race is tossed, then the G1 Arkansas Derby is the only legitimate prep he has remaining. Though he won that race by 4 ¼ lengths, he didn’t necessarily beat any world beaters and the 94 BSF he earned seems to suggest that Oaklawn didn’t draw the best of the crop this year. If that’s the case, then he hasn’t been truly tested at this level, and the Derby typically rewards classier types.
15- Forte
This horse has been scratched and will not run.
16- Raise Cain
If bettors toss the G3 Gotham, a wild race in the slop which heavily, heavily favored closers, this colt has no business being in this field. His distant fifth-place finish in the G1 Blue Grass seemed to confirm that he’s mediocre at this level, and even if the Gotham performance is included in his past performances, he would still have to significantly improve on his career-best to have any chance.
17- Derma Sotogake (Jpn)
He has so much history going against him. We’ve seen this before — every few years, a foreign-trained horse dominates the UAE Derby and generates a lot of buzz going into the Derby. Never once has one of them capitalized and won the event. Moreover, Japanese-bred runners in the Derby are obviously on the rise, but only three have ever run in the race previously. The wide post will likely force him to use his speed and go the lead as he did in the UAE, but the competition chasing him should be stronger this time around.
18- Rocket Can
His only win this year came in the G3 Holy Bull against a very weak field, and his subsequent efforts have not been close to good enough. Facing Forte twice gives bettors a good idea of how he stacks up to the Derby favorite, and he has consistently been unable to make up any ground. The speed figures have hit a plateau for now and the post is sure to cause some issues.
19- Lord Miles
This colt has been scratched and will not run in the Kentucky Derby.
20- Continuar (Jpn)
This colt has been scratched and will not run in the Kentucky Derby.
Also-Eligibles:
21- Cyclone Mischief
He needs to get faster. Since earning a 90 BSF in January, this colt has hit a hard pleateau while finished third in back-to-back starts behind Forte. There are only so many excuses to make for those defeats, so improvement is necessary if he has any chance to win from this post position.
22- Mandarin Hero (Jpn)
Beyond the wide post, which is nearly lethal this far out, bettors should still question whether this Japanese runner truly belongs at this level. He seemed to prove that his wins in his home country were legitimate when he nearly won the G1 Santa Anita Derby. But he worked out a very nice closing trip in between horses that didn’t force him to travel far in that performance. It will be very difficult for him to work out such a trip in the Derby.
23- King Russell
This colt was a maiden in February and finished a distant second to Angel of Empire in the G1 Arkansas Derby to get into this field. With an 87 BSF in that race and the widest post of all in this one, he’s very difficult to support.