Watching a race live is often a one-sided activity. In this year’s Belmont Stakes, it’s very likely that spectators are watching two horses: Tiz the Law and the runner they picked to beat him. However, as the Triple Crown progresses, it’s important to get to know all of these runners and how their trip in the Belmont Stakes affected their performance.
All 10 runners ran different races, and some benefited, others suffered and for a few, it didn’t matter. By post position, I broke down the individual trip of every runner in this very important race.
1- Tap It to Win was running very hard from the beginning, which is never a great sign for a front runner. In order to get the lead, he had to beat Fore Left, Tiz the Law and Pneumatic to his outside. The pace was honest from the beginning, and jockey John Velasquez was unable to give his horse a breather at any point. He never took full advantage of the rail position, staying two or three wide throughout, even on the turn. By the time they reached the stretch, Tap It to Win had put away Fore Left, but had an insurmountable task ahead of him. He was unable to match strides with Tiz the Law and eventually gave in to other runners. Finish: 5th
Bottom Line: An honest pace and some unexpected challengers prevented this horse from controlling the race, which hurt his chances in the stretch.
2- Sole Volante broke evenly with the rest of the field but instantly dropped back to last place. Like most jockeys, Luca Panici took his horse off the rail for most of the backstretch before ducking back in on the turn. Still last at that point, he showed some life and began to pick off a few near the back. Taking the inside around the turn, he swung into the stretch and had to angle out to the center of the track. From there, he failed to make up ground in the run to the wire. Finish: 6th
Bottom Line: This horse gave himself a lot to do starting so far back, but the trip was fine and he probably could have done more.
3- Max Player instantly went to the back of the pack as well, but as most were steered off of the rail, Joel Rosario chose to keep his runner inside for the most part on the backstretch. Still second to last entering the turn, he moved into the three-path and began to pick off several horses. In a crowd now, Rosario steered his runner slightly in order to keep him from going too wide too early. Eventually, the horse swung six wide as they entered the stretch and continued to make a determined bid up the center of the track. He was running fast at the end but had no chance of contending for the top spot. Finish: 3rd
Bottom Line: Joel Rosario gave this horse a great chance, controlling him well and putting him in a position to run his race. He capitalized on the chance and ran well for third.
4- Modernist broke near the back of the pack early, and Junior Alvarado kept his horse in the two-path on the backstretch. When Farmington Road began to move to his outside, this one launched his bid as well. He outran F.R. and made a bold move in between Jungle Runner and Dr Post on the turn to contend for fourth position. Going two wide around, he was still in contention entering the stretch but did little running thereafter. Finish: 7th
Bottom Line: He could have waited a little longer before launching his bid, but it would have been difficult for this one to improve on his position based on his stretch run.
5- Farmington Road also started slowly, running on the outside of Modernist early. Javier Castellano decided to launch a slightly early bid and began to make up ground before his horse entered the turn. When he moved, Modernist moved to his inside as well. While the inside horse managed to find room in between horses, Farmington Road couldn’t find a gap and went wider to try to pass Dr Post on the outside. He was pushed even further wide as they entered the stretch, with Max Player making room for his run. He came up empty in the stretch. Finish: 8th
Bottom Line: This horse would have needed a perfect trip to have any say at all. Instead, he was the widest around the turn and was spent in the stretch. He may have been overwhelmed anyway, but the trip didn’t help.
6- Fore Left broke well and fought for the early lead with Tap It to Win to his inside and Tiz the Law and Pneumatic to his outside. He settled into second position, applying constant pressure to Tap It to Win on the front end through honest fractions. He ran evenly around the turn while three wide, but by the time he reached the stretch, he had been passed for second by Tiz the Law. He faded badly in the stretch. Finish: 9th
Bottom Line: Vying for the lead on the outside of Tap It to Win was not beneficial for him, and only succeeded in wearing them both down.
7- Jungle Runner broke well and settled into a position in the middle of the pack. Reylu Gutierrez kept his horse closer to the inside, and he made minor gains to take fourth as the field entered the turn. He remained inside on the turn but began to lose ground. By the time they entered the stretch, he was dead last, 14 lengths behind ninth place. He was effectively pulled up and finished nearly 40 lengths behind the winner. Finish: 10th
Bottom Line: No trip could have helped this horse’s chances.
8- Tiz the Law had a clean beginning and moved for the front early with Tap It to Win and Fore Left to his inside and Pneumatic to his outside. Manny Franco chose to stalk with his horse, sitting two lengths off of Tap It to Win in the four-path. Still four wide on the turn, he launched a bid and easily passed Fore Left for second position. He made a sharp move into the stretch to take a commanding lead and never looked back, powering home to win by nearly four lengths. Finish: 1st
Bottom Line: When you’re the best horse in the field, you can run your race. Manny Franco’s only job was to keep him out of trouble, and he did it well.
9- Dr Post broke evenly and prepared for a run from mid-pack behind the four early leaders with Jungle Runner to his inside. Irad Ortiz was patient on his horse, and while Modernist rushed to his inside, Dr Post held his position directly behind Tiz the Law going four wide on the turn. As the field turned into the stretch, he angled out for a clear path outside of Pneumatic and began to advance five wide. He continued running in the stretch and eventually passed Pneumatic and Tap It to Win, though he had no chance of running down Tiz the Law. Finish: 2nd
Bottom Line: He sat a few lengths behind the scrap in front of him, and made his move in the stretch run. He was never going to catch Tiz the Law, so this trip maximized his ability.
10- Pneumatic broke well and stayed in touch with the three leaders to his inside. Widest on the backstretch, Ricardo Santana could do very little to move his horse further inside and traveled four wide all the way around the turn. He made a modest bid as they entered the stretch, taking second position from Tap It to Win before being run down by Dr Post and Max Player. Finish: 4th
Bottom Line: He was wide all the way around the track, and unlike Tiz the Law, this horse required a better trip to have a chance. The fact that he still ran fairly well is a testament to his ability.
Best Trip: Dr Post
Irad Ortiz rode this horse perfectly. He didn’t rush to the lead or make an early bid. He was patient all the way around the turn and didn’t move until the stretch run. This horse wasn’t much better on paper, but Ortiz’s ride helped him defeat comparable runners.
Worst Trip: Pneumatic
It wasn’t terrible, but it did hurt his chances. Coming out of the far outside post, this horse was doomed to run wide, and despite that, he still held on to fourth position in the stretch. Should he ever get an inside post against a field like this one, it’s very likely he improves.
Did any trip affect the end result?
It’s possible that several trips affected the order of finish underneath, but the only trip that mattered for first was that of Tiz the Law. If he could avoid disaster, he was going to win. He stayed clear around the turn and dusted his competition in the stretch. It takes a good horse or a weak field to make a trip negligible. Tiz the Law was a good horse, and this Triple Crown field would have been a lot stronger a month ago.
Good job Pat
yes.