There are few bigger days on the racing calendar than Travers Day at Saratoga. Five graded stakes will be contested between some of the best runners in the country, and the crown jewel at the end, the G1 Travers, will be the true test of a champion this year.
Tiz the Law had everything his way in a commanding victory in the Belmont Stakes, but a brand new field of challengers awaits him in what will be the unofficial second leg of the Triple Crown this year. A victory here will solidify his place as a star, but he won’t be alone at the end. Let’s take a look at this fantastic card.
Note: Analysis for the first 11 races are currently uploaded.
Race 1
$72,000 Maiden Special Weight for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 1/16 Miles on the Inner Turf
This is a very competitive race to begin a fantastic day of racing. A case can be made for every horse in the race, which makes my job a little difficult. My top four:
6- The Angry Man
In a wide open race, I believe the winner may be the one that gets the best trip. With a stalking running style, this gelding took to the turf beautifully in his third start last time out, finishing second behind front runner Oak Hill. The fractions were fairly slow that day and will likely be similar here, which will hurt many of the talented closers in the race. While it’s difficult to project who will get the lead here, it’s not hard to figure out where this runner will be. Heshould manage to sit right behind a few horses up front, and from there, it comes down to whether he can make an effective move on the turn.
2- High Tide
2B- Gunman (SCRATCHED)
I seriously doubt that both of these runners make it into the race, but I really don’t mind either one of them. High Tide is coming off a very long layoff and will make his turf debut for Todd Pletcher, who’s excellent at developing horses from two to three. He’s improved several times in turf workouts as he prepares for this start. Meanwhile, Gunman actually ran on the turf at two, but it also making his three-year-old debut. I figure that one of them will be more developed during the time off, and Pletcher may even help by scratching the one that’s not ready. If he doesn’t, then I simply have double the chance.
4- Bay Street Money
His last start was phenomenal and gave Jimmy Jerkens yet another runner-up finish. In the face of crawling fractions, this runner drove home in the stretch, coming up just short to talented runner Mr Jaggers, who was much closer to the leaders throughout. He ran too well to lose that day, but Jerkens is ready to reload with him and try him again at Saratoga. I wouldn’t be surprised, but Jerkens is still winless at Saratoga in the past month.
3- Doswell
A former Chad Brown runner trained by Barclay Tagg would usually deserve very little attention, but this seems to be an exception. He hasn’t run since September 2019, when he performed poorly in a race rained off the turf, but his turf starts last year were all exceptional. In a shocking twist, Jose Ortiz actually stays on to ride, and as a Tagg runner, his most recent workout is an excellent sign that he’s in shape. His trainer tends to practice patience with his runners, which makes this first start more of a wait-and-see start, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he responded on first asking this year.
Order: 6 2/2B 4 3 (Note: The 2B, Gunman, is scratched.)
In a race that doesn’t appear to have much pace up front, The Angry Man possess stalking speed that could make the difference. Meanwhile, the 2 entry feels like a crap shoot with two runners coming off long layoffs. I do think it’s a gamble worth considering. Bay Street Money ran very well last time out, but came up short in a closing finish. I don’t see why something similar won’t happen again. Doswell is an intriguing runner that seems to be a little overbet.
Race 2
$32,000 Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 1/8 Miles on the Dirt
This is the type of race that I flub on occasion, because these horses are a little less consistent race to race than horses at other levels of racing. They’re all professionals, and could really turn things around or take a step back at any point. My best attempt:
3- Shalako
The key to this sort of race is figuring out who wants to run the distance, and this runner’s firststart off the layoff was superb. Going wider than fellow runner Musical Heart, he simply outran him, winning a photo by a neck. He may be able to improve in his second start off the layoff for Rudy Rodriguez, a notion bolstered by the new presence of Irad Ortiz. I think he has what it takes to make it two in a row.
1- Lil Commissioner (SCRATCHED)
1A- Musical Heart
Manny Franco is scheduled to ride both of these Rob Atras runners, which means that one will be scratched or one will have a jockey change. I’d predict that it’s a case of the former, which makes this a little tricky to handicap. Lil Commissioner responded very well off the layoff at a lower level, defeating solid runner Walkoff in a stellar performance. Meanwhile, Musical Heart ran well in defeat last time out against fellow runner Shalako. On the off chance they both run, it’s simply a very dangerous two-for-one entry. If one of them scratches, the one that stays in should get a small bump because of the trainer’s intention.
6- Creative Style
I’m very happy to see this runner make at a route distance, though I have concerns that this may be a little too long. His race two starts back was excellent, a three-length victory at a slightly shorter route distance than the one he’ll be running at today. His one start at a mile and an eighth was a troublesome start last year, though that may have been the result of a sloppy track. Edward Barker is winless at Saratoga, and Eric Cancel only has three wins.
4- Hammerin Aamer
I originally tossed this runner before realizing that Lil Commissioner and Musical Heart were an entry. Now, he sneaks into the top four, and while his speed figures make him competitive, I’m not sure this is his optimal distance.
Order: 3 1/1A 6 4 (Note: The 1, Lil Commissioner, is scratched.)
Shalako won his last start at this distance, and in his second start off the layoff, he appears to be in an even better position. The 1/1A entry is a little tricky to handicap because it’s unclear which of the pair will run, or which jockey will be riding them. They’re both talented forever, and should contend here. Creative Style and Hammerin Aamer are solid runners that may appreciate a slightly shorter distance.
Race 3
$64,000 Allowance for NY-Bred Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf
This race appears to have one incredibly reasonable winner, and the tote board will likely reflect that. I didn’t try to get creative in beating her in my top four:
9- Light in the Sky
This filly towers over this field. She’s had a bit of a rivalry with My Sassy Sarah lately, finishing second ahead of her two starts back before she turned the tables on her in their last start. In those races, she performed at a level that would have easily handled this field, and if she can replicate those performances in a race without any serious competition, she shouldn’t have much of an issue.
8- Drynachan
Her first start off the layoff was a little underwhelming, but in her defense, she hadn’t raced in a year. It’s nice to see Javier Castellano stay to ride for Rodolphe Brisset, who’s been preparing his horses well without breaking through with a victory at the meet just yet. She’s been training well since her last start and could improve in her second start off the layoff, returning to the track and distance where she broke her maiden way back in her two-year-old season.
4- Ava K’s Girl
Fans of back class will likely have to take a second look at this one. Michelle Nevin had high hopes for her as a two-year-old when she was entered in the G2 Miss Grillo, but she disappointed that day and took the rest of the year off. She hasn’t been great in her three-year-old season, but in this field, her speed figures hold up well enough. Manny Franco replaces Joel Rosario on a filly that will return to the distance and track where she broke her maiden last year.
6- Canarsie Angel
Michael Miceli and Dylan Davis really form a dynamic upset duo often, and will team up with this filly that probably fits a little better than the tote board will suggest. She was plainly inferior to Light in the Sky two starts, and the prospect of improvement is unlikely. However, if that runner should take a step back, she’ll be one of several candidates that can try their hand at taking her on.
Order: 9 8 4 6
Light in the Sky seems too good to lose here, as she’s been competing against better and seems like the logical choice here. Drynachan could improve in her second start off an absurdly long layoff, while Ava K’s Girl May have to wait a while before she breaks this condition for a hopeful trainer. Canarsie Angel is a fairly interesting long shot.
Race 4
$25,000 Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won a Race in 2020, 1 Mile on the Inner Turf
This is another race that’s very difficult to figure out. They’re all old pros by this point, and while they’ve all seen better days, many of them still have more than enough to win here. My top four:
8- Golden Spear
After trailing off somewhat at the end of 2019, this Robert Klesaris trainee returned to frmcin his first race of 2020, finishing second ahead of fellow runner Bootlegger by a head. Now that he’s more established on the track, he stands to improve in his second start off the layoff on a track that he’s found success on in the past.
2- Siding Spring
This gelding’s first start off the layoff was a bit of a disappointment, as he got close to the lead early but folded. As a seven-year-old, it’s very possible that he’s just done, but it’s also possible that he need a start. In a race without much pace up front, his tactical speed is a huge advantage, and if he can regain some of his form from last year, he’ll be very dangerous here.
5- Hieroglyphics
While this gelding hasn’t been as good this year as he’s been in the past, he’s been very steady in defeat on several occasions. In his first race off the layoff, he closed very very well in a start down at Gulfstream, and it’s a great sign to see Michael Maker ship him north. Irad Ortiz takes the mount, and it’s feasible to expect some improvement second off the layoff.
3- Field of Courage
I liked this runner last week as a mild upset last time out, and he did actually run pretty well. He was overwhelmed, however, and Rudy Rodriguez brings him back this weekend for another try. This is a very successful angle for Rodriguez, but his horse will have to improve to take down this field.
Order: 8 2 5 3
Golden Spear seems to be entering this race with the best preparation, and stands to improve in his second start off the layoff. Siding Spring will have to recapture some of his previous form, but his tactical speed will put him in an excellent position if he can still mix it up with these. Hieroglyphics is a very safe option for a good run, but he’ll have to improve a little to take down this field.
Race 5
$72,000 Maiden Special Weight for Two-Year-Olds, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt
In a compact juvenile race, I think it comes down to two firsters, trained by Chad Brown and Todd Pletcher. It’s a classic training duel that’s been played out thousands of times over the last decade, and should be interesting here:
7- Mutasaabeq
Todd Pletcher’s firster here has been lighting it up in the morning and debuts in a small field here. Along with some very fast workouts, he also has a 387 Tomlinson, top notch connections, and $425,000 purchase price. He’s the one to beat on first asking.
6- Bottle Rocket Man
Chad Brown can never be underestimated, and is excellent with first time starters. His colt here has a 404 Tomlinson, a $350,000 purchase price, and jockey Javier Castellano on his back. He’s very dangerous.
5- Guana Cay
This is one of only three runners in the field with experience, and that may actually be a drawback. Wesley Ward usually sends his horses out to win in their first start, so when they fall short, they don’t always progress too much in subsequent starts. That being said, he did run fairly well that day on the turf and switches to dirt here, a successful move for Ward that gives this runner a chance.
1- Shackleford Strong
Steve Asmussen hasn’t been training this colt at Saratoga, but he must see something he likes to ship him up here for his first start. The workout tab is a little light and there are flashier runners on paper here, which suggests that he may need a start.
Order: 7 6 5 1
Todd Pletcher appears to have a very live colt here, and while I’m not counting out Chad Brown by any means, I do think he’s second best here. Guana Cay will make an intriguing surface switch for Wesley Ward after running evenly on the grass last time out, while Steve Asmussen is bringing a runner from the Ellis Park training track to the backstretch at Saratoga.
Race 6
$72,000 Maiden Special Weight for Two-Year-Olds, 1 1/16 Miles on the Mellon Turf
This is a superb juvenile turf race that will likely produce multiple talented colts. It’s the type of race that produces very promising two-year-olds, and hopefully my guesswork is good;
3- American Monarch
Usually, Bill Mott’s runners aren’t all that appealing to me. However, in this case, I can’t help but be a little intrigued. I’m stealing an old angle of my father’s here; when Mott’s first time starters are quick in the morning, he sends them out to win in their debuts. This horse has been excellent in two straight workouts for a trainer that very rarely pushes his horses. He has a 386 Tomlinson for the distance and American Pharoah offspring have been extremely successful on turf. I’m willing to take a chance here.
1- Secret Potion
Chad Brown, Peter Brant, and Irad Ortiz. That’s an automatic inclusion on any ticket, and the 403 Tomlinson and $475,000 purchase price don’t hurt either.
4- Hidden Enemy (Ire)
This Steve Asmussen runner has been training at Saratoga, which shows that this has been the plan for a while now. Asmussen and Ricardo Santana team up for the ride, with the one real knock being the trainer’s lack of success debuting at over a mile. He has been preparing his colt for such a start, however.
2- Pivotal Mission
Graham Motion won a race yesterday, so I can start hyping up his horses again. This colt had quite the learning experience running wide in his debut, and there’s a lot to like at a price as he makes his second start with Jose Ortiz.
Order: 3 1 4 2
Every now and again, I get the impression that Bill Mott has a live first time starter. It really feels like that’s the case here. However, he’ll have to deal with another Chad Brown firster, and although Brown has been a little cool at Saratoga, he can never be counted out entirely. Steve Asmussen is another trainer with a live first time starter, while Graham Motion recruits Jose Ortiz again to ride his colt making his second start.
Race 7
Ballerina Stakes (G1) for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt
This is the first Grade 1 race of the day, and it’s an excellent race that should feature an extremely hot pace up front. It’s the sort of race that often produces exciting finishes, which should compensate for the fact that it’s a little overshadowed by other races in this card. I’ll be going through all the horses in post position order here, starting with:
1- Serengeti Empress
The 2019 Kentucky Oaks winner entered the gate last time out as a close second choice in the G2 Fleur De Lis. In the end, she was simply inferior to Midnight Bisou, but with a clear lead on the front end, she really should have held better than she did. Under normal circumstances, I would be willing to forgive that performance coming off a a layoff against a much better opponent. However, in this start, she has a different problem. She needs the lead to win in any start, and in this race, there are at least three other runners that could join her up front. I think this pace will be too hot for her on her best day, and I’m not sure her best day is coming anyway.
2- Cookie Dough
After an impressive victory in the G3 Royal Delta, this filly ran into a buzzsaw dueling against Serengeti Empress and Ollie’s Candy. She had absolutely no chance that day on the front end. She has to undergo her third trainer change in a year here as she moves to Juan Alvarado’s barn. The real problem, however, is that it seems as though this speedy filly will get caught up in yet another suicidal speed duel. She’s shown almost no stalking instinct whatsoever in her career, and while she’s useful in the right spot, I don’t think this is the one.
3- Victim of Love
This filly pulled off the upset in the G3 Vagrancy shipping from Laurel off a layoff upset fellow runner Come Dancing. It wasn’t a case of one of the underdog getting a perfect trip; he actually did appear to outrun the favorite that day. However, six and a half furlongs did play better do his strengths, and could have made the nearly two-length difference. An extra half-furlong doesn’t sound like a huge difference, but there are several in here that are much better suited to this distance. In addition this field is much tougher than the one she faced last time, and while a hot pace up front may benefit her, I don’t anticipate her repeating here.
4- Bellafina
If this filly could ship outside of California, she’d be one of the best in the country. However, in five starts outside her home state, she’s never won and lost by nearly 50 combined lengths. She’ll probably take money again here, and the fact that Simon Callaghan continues to ship her is encouraging. She’ll also get an ideal pace scenario to stalk. However, there’s no way she’s worth betting at 9-5 odds when she’s been completely hapless abroad.
5- Lestruska
She dominated the racing scene in Mexico, and a move to the United States became inevitable after a nine-length victory in two G1 races. She’s been excellent at Gulfstream and Oaklawn in her time in the U.S., but her strategy has been advantageous in nearly all of those starts. She’s very quick and has gotten clear leads in nearly all of her starts, but she won’t have such luck here. She’ll have to duel for the first time here, and she isn’t worth the risk in this spot.
6- Pink Sands
If this mare is ever going to win a Grade 1 stakes, this is the spot. She’s a dead closer that needs a completely unreasonable pace up front to have a chance. She received such situations in the G2 Inside Information and the G3 Rampart, and she capitalized on both in come-from-behind victories. In her first race off the layoff, she was clearly overwhelmed and wasn’t pushed in the stretch. Under normal circumstances, I don’t believe that she’s a Grade 1 caliber horse, but the stars may be aligning here.
7- Come Dancing
I’m not sure if this mare will ever recapture her 2019 form, but her first race off the layoff wasn’t all that encouraging. She was going a little short that day and may have just needed a race, but there weren’t many excuses for her failure to run down fellow runner Victim of Love. The pace scenario in this race will set up perfectly if she can capitalize on it, but I’m not sure whether she still has it in her.
Order: 6 4 5 7
In a race full of pace, I think the scene is set for Pink Sands to take a big step forward and close from far back. At Santa Anita, Bellafina would win this race by open lengths, but at Saratoga, I’m more than prepared to go against her. Of all the front runners, I think Letruska has the best chance of holding based on her previous performances, while Come Dancing will run well but won’t be able to fully capitalize on a perfect stalking trip.
Race 8
Troy Stakes (G3) for Four-Year-Olds and Upward, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf
These turf sprints are always complete mayhem from start to finish. The lead seems to hold up arbitrarily at times, and at other times a stampede in the final hundred yards put the front runners straight to the back of the field in seconds. Let’s embrace the chaos:
4- Shekky Shebaz
Is he still an early speed horse? I sure hope not, because that’s not what I’m betting on him to do. I don’t believe that his last race set up all that well for him, as fellow runner American Sailor established a clear lead up front and was very stubborn in giving it up. It was also his first race off a long layoff, and while he did tail off at the end of his last season, I think he can wake up here. Early last year, he came alive at Saratoga, rattling off two straight wins while stepping up sharply in class. There should be a duel up front in this one, and if there is, I’m hoping that this guy’s learned how to sit a trip.
1- Imprimis
In a race full of horses trying to break through into graded stakes competition, this gelding is the class. He ran very gamely last year to finish sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, but hasn’t raced since. If he can run back to those races he ran last year, he’ll be very dangerous here. However, he was falling off slightly at the end of last year, and he hasn’t always fired fresh off breaks. I don’t believe he’s an invincible favorite here.
7- Chewing Gum
This horse is making his debut in graded stakes competition on turf after some excellent performances at the allowance optional claiming levels. The horses he lost to last time out, Front Run the Fed and Delaware, are both very impressive turf runners in their own right. The issue of class isn’t such a big deal for me, as this competition is tougher but not completely out of his range. My primary issue is distance; he tends to do better going a little longer than this, and has finished third at short odds in his two previous attempts going this short. I wouldn’t be surprised, but I think there are others here.
2- American Sailor
This gelding got his optimal trip last time and it wasn’t enough to take down the Wolf Hill at Monmouth. He did finish in front of fellow runner Shekky Shebaz that day, but again, he had optimal conditions to run under. Today, he’ll likely have to deal with fellow speedster Pure Sensation, who may have seen better days but doesn’t yet lack speed in the early going. He’s getting some stiffer competition here anyway, and while I think he’ll have some staying power at this level in the long term, I’m not sure that today is the day.
Order: 4 1 7 2
I’m taking a small chance with Shekky Shebaz, who I believe is being prepared well by Christophe Clement, a trainer that’s been great lately. Imprimis is obviously an impressive runner, but as the favorite, I wonder if he just needs a race. Chewing Gum and American Sailor are taking a step up here, and I question the distance with the former and the pace with the latter.
Race 9
Ways Stakes (G3) for Fillies and Mares Four Years Old and Upward, 1 ½ Miles on the Inner Turf
This is a marathon sprint race without a ton of speed up front. That could lead to a European kind of race or one where a sneaky front runner steals it. I try to strike some middle ground with my top four:
1- Mrs Sippy
Tossing the Breeders’ Cup start that was pretty much a wash, this mare was excellent in two stateside performances last year. If she can run back to those starts, then she’ll be incredibly dangerous here. Graham Motion finally won a race yesterday, which could indicate that he’s heating up at the right time. The question here is the pace up front, which is seriously lacking and could lead to a sneaky wiring upset. However, in a European sort of stampede race, she’s the winner here.
7- Fools Gold
I’m very scared of a wiring effort by this horse in a very slow early pace. She won this race last year with a similar trip near the front, and while she never explicitly leads, she’s always near the front. She’s slow to warm up off of layoffs, but Javier Castellano returns to ride her for her second start of the year. I think she’s dangerous here.
4- My Sister Nat (Fr)
This mare closed in her first start off the layoff, despite the fact, that the early speed was holding well that day. In terms of speed and class, she’s heading in the right direction, and in her second start off the layoff, I think she has an excellent chance for Chad Brown. The only remaining question is the distance, but I don’t why she can’t handle it.
5- Olympic Games (Fr)
In two U.S. starts, she’s finished second in two ungraded stakes and is attempting to step up here. She’s certainly talented and still has time to come into her own, but I think this is a little soon for this runner to be taking on this field.
Order: 1 7 4 5
Mrs Sippy did very little wrong outside of the BC start, and I don’t see why she can’t come back strong to start the year here. Fools Gold is the reigning winner of this race, and has demonstrated the ability to hold near the front. My Sister Nat is another excellent stretch runner that has never run this distance, while others in here have more experience. Olympic Games probably isn’t quite good enough yet for this test
Race 10 (FULL ANALYSIS)
Test Stakes (G1) for Three-Year-Old Fillies, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt
If things go to plan, this is a stepping stone for Gamine on the way to the Kentucky Oaks. Like she did on Belmont Stakes day, she’ll be leading in for Tiz the Law, and she was more impressive than her male counterpart that day. To understand the field she’s up against this time around, I’ve chosen to look at every runner, starting with:
1- Up in Smoke
This filly flew through the ranks down at Gulfstream Park before George Weaver shipped her up to Belmont. She encountered a biased track that day and failed to close, but she’d have to improve massively to win here. If she does pull off the upset, however, the headlines would really write themselves, wouldn’t they?
2- Perfect Alibi
This filly was very talented at two, but in her return race, she finished 31 lengths behind fellow runner Gamine. I don’t know if she’ll be that far behind here, but it’s very difficult to endorse her.
3- Mrs. Danvers
After her loss to Indian Pride, I considered her a shoo-in in her next start. Then, she lost to Grand Cru Classe as a 45-cent favorite, and I grew a little concerned. Here, none of that matters, because she appears overmatched.
4- Wicked Whisper
In her three-year-old debut, many wondered whether she would return to her early two-year-old form. She disappointed that day, but Steve Asmussen’s confidence is noted as he not only keeps her at the same distance, but steps her up sharply in class. I’ll consider her.
5- Gamine
Is she the best three-year-old country? The argument can be made either way, and at the end of the day, the case may be strengthened or weakened. This is obviously a Kentucky Oaks prep for this star, so seven furlongs clearly isn’t the end goal. This makes her a tad vulnerable, but her main challenger isn’t a natural sprinter either. Plus, going against her would go against my sensibilities as both a speed and trip handicapper. That G1 Acorn performance was phenomenal in both respects, and I’m not trying anything here.
6- Venetian Harbor
If anyone’s taking down Gamine, it’s this filly. She did lose to Speech last time out in the G1 Ashland, a runner that Gamine gamely defeated two starts back. However, she competed with her, which could indicate that she’s on roughly equal terms with the favorite. However, if she had run in the Acorn last time out instead of the Ashland, I think she would have been a distant runner-up. Her improvement is unlikely, so her opponent will have to regress.
Order: 5 6 1 4
I’m not trying to beat Gamine after her performance in the G1 Acorn last time out. That was a ridiculous, insane performance that I’d have to ignore or toss in order to bet against her. Venetian Harbor is a very talented filly in her own right, and I think Up in Smoke is the only natural sprinter in the race, but at the end of the day, this should go to Gamine.
Race 11 (FULL ANALYSIS)
Travers Stakes (G1) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 ¼ Miles on the Dirt
I think I’ve teased this race enough by now. Let’s break it down:
1- First Line
This gelding has been scratched, and didn’t have much of a chance to begin with.
2- Country Grammer
In his second race off the layoff, this horse significantly improved to win the G2 Peter Pan, finishing a neck ahead of fellow runner Caracaro. The 96 BSF he earned that day isn’t quite good enough to defeat Tiz the Law, but he’s been improving in each start and could very well take another step forward here. My only problem is that he won his last race with a beautiful rail trip over Caracaro, who I believe ran the better race. That being said, he draws the inside post again here, and there’s no reason Irad Ortiz can’t work out the same trip again. He’s an excellent contender here that I may be foolish for fading a little.
3- Uncle Chuck
Bob Baffert’s won the Travers in the last with several horses just like this. He’s very reminiscent of Arrogate on paper, though he offers none of the value Arrogate had at 11-1 in that year’s rendition. This colt has tactical speed, but it would be very easy for him to get caught in a speed duel, even after the scratch of First Line. In addition, I’m not exactly buying the notion that his last race was live. Thousand Words, the horse he defeated that went on the beat Honor A.P. in the Shared Belief, won that race alone on the lead in California. I don’t believe he’s as impressive as some people make him out to be, and without that argument, the field Uncle Chuck took down that day appears a little light. His speed figures are very good, and his light race tab could mean that he can improve. However, I think he’ll be a short price because of his connections, and I’d rather look for a more proven commodity.
4- Max Player
In the Belmont Stakes, I bet against this colt on the basis that he wouldn’t fare well off a long layoff. I was right to bet against him, but I also underestimated him. He ran very well that day to finish third, albeit five lengths behind fellow runner Tiz the Law. I think he’ll experience some natural improvement in his second start off the layoff, but I don’t think he’ll improve by five lengths. That being said, a hot pace scenario could set up well for him as a deep closer.
5- Shivaree
I actually liked this colt a little in the Blue Grass, and I had to eat my words on that one. He performed very poorly on his first real distance test outside of Gulfstream Park, a very friendly track to early speed. He’ll be a pace presence in this race, but I really don’t expect much else from him.
6- Tiz the Law
Man, he feels beatable today. I don’t know what it is, but it feels like he’s… stagnated a little? Does that make sense? From March to June, I would’ve suspected a little more improvement from the top three-year-old in the country. He did everything right to win the Belmont Stakes, but he was far superior to every other horse in that race. There are a couple in here that aren’t far off, and I think people are viewing him as the superhorse he was in his last start, rather than the best option in a more open field this time around. I’ll be rooting hard for him, as I love seeing the NY-Bred run well, but I think I’m taking a shot against him.
7- Caracaro
And here’s my shot. After an incredibly impressive performance to break his maiden back in January, this colt was forced to take an extended layoff and didn’t return until last month. Gustavo Delgado placed him aggressively in his first start back, entering him straight into the G2 Peter Pan. I bet him to win that day, and I maintain that I bet the best horse. However, while he traveled wide around the turn, fellow runner Country Grammer managed to slip through on the rail. Despite traveling much farther around that turn, Caracaro was game in the stretch and lost by a neck. Country Grammer had a freshener going into that race, while this colt was coming in off a six-month layoff. In a way, that Peter Pan could have been a freshener, because this horse has the highest Tomlinson for the distance in the race and does seem to want more distance visually.
Now, he does have some knocks. He traveled wide last time because he drew an outside post, and he and C.G. drew identical post positions for this race. In addition, trainer Gustavo Delgado never brings a horse back so soon after a long layoff, but his hand has been forced in this case. That being said, it’s generally agreed that the entire goal of handicapping this race is finding a runner to improve enough to defeat Tiz the Law. I think this is far and away the best candidate.
8- South Bend
This new Bill Mott acquisition is very interesting if there’s a hot pace up front. Old trainer Stanley Hough was running him on turf when it clearly wasn’t his preferred surface, and when he finally entered him back on dirt in the Ohio Derby, he ran very well from the back of the pack to finish second. That being said, that race heavily favored closers, which could suggest that it’s close to his best possible performance, even if today’s race sets up for him similarly. However, Jose Ortiz is a major jockey upgrade, and Bill Mott knows how to prepare a runner for a race like this. He’s an intriguing outsider.
Order: 7 6 2 4
Tiz the Law has truly been special in every start he’s made this year. However, he’s not nearly as untouchable in this start as he was last time out, but his odds likely won’t reflect that difference. As a result, I’ll be taking a chance with Caracaro because I don’t believe he’s shown his best performance yet. Country Grammer is a very talented runner for Chad Brown that I feel a little uncomfortable disrespecting, even though my trip handicapping instincts tell me he was the second best horse that day in the Peter Pan. I think Max Player will improve as well, but I don’t see him making up five lengths.
Race 12
$62,000 Maiden Special Weight for NY-Bred Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Six and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt
I’ve got nothing. Sorry gang.