Everyone needs a pick for the Kentucky Derby. It’s mandatory in my opinion. Every year in May, 20 entrants run in the most chaotic event in North American horse racing; it’s an opportunity for the most experienced and most fun-loving to congregate for a relatively random chance at a massive payout.
For the race that everyone should have a pick for, I asked — well, almost everyone, but I tried to focus on people that wouldn’t have picked a horse otherwise. Annoying people in the name of racing awareness is kind of my thing at this point. They never see it coming. Within this chaotic piece, prophecies, gut feelings, mispronunciations and sound logic await. I’ve made no attempt to organize any of it. Happy Derby Day!
Churchill Downs, Race 12
Kentucky Derby (G1) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 ¼ Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 6:58 p.m. EST
Joan Moquin
Pick: 3- Epicenter
1) Epicenter #3
- Trainer: Asmussen
- Breeding: Giants Causeway
- Beyer: 102 — Yowza!
- Love everything about this horse
2) Mo Donegal #1
- Jockey: I. Ortiz
- Trainer: Pletcher
- Breeding: Uncle Mo, Indian Charlie
- Beyer: 96
3) Messier #6
- Trainer: Baffert Stooge👎🏻
- Breeding: Empire Marker, Unbridled
- Beyer: 99 — WOW!
- Love the horse; difficult to overlook the Baffert association
Horse to watch: Taiba #12
- Beyers: 102 -WOW!
Emma Moquin
Pick: 3- Epicenter
“This is, in my opinion, the hardest race to bet ever year. However, there was one horse I just kept going back to. Despite my usual distaste for lead horses, my pick for the 2022 Kentucky Derby is Epicenter. With incredible speed figures and a powerful jockey/trainer combo, this horse is a scary opponent for the others. I also find it encouraging that he has beat some of his fellow competitors in his last two races. I wish you all a happy Kentucky Derby and good luck!”
Kevin Moquin
Pick: 15- White Abarrio
“He’s rounding into form. Seems to get stronger as his races get longer. His two 34-second workouts at Gulfstream and his outside post have me thinking he’ll have an early advantage for a clean trip. I wouldn’t take any horse under 10-1 in this year’s running of the Derby.”
Paul Moquin
Pick: 1- Mo Donegal
Niko Konstantellis
Pick: 6- Messier
“Part of me liking Messier is that he’s 8-1. The other part is that he’s legit. He can win in many different ways. If he doesn’t get his ideal trip to start, it won’t affect him as much as it will other horses. Epicenter should be the favorite because he’s in a similar position to Messier. But I think he prefers the lead a little more and this race might be too quick. Maybe I’ll do a 6-3 straight exacta. Yeah, I like that.”
Kristina Stevanovic
Pick: 13- Simplification
“Tough race to analyze here, and I’m saying outright that I’ll be ignoring a few favorites. I liked Mo Donegal from the start, but spending my morning analyzing the form instead of working on finals is making me question my decision. I think we should watch out for Taiba for sure, but the chances of this horse running well next to 19 other horses is a bit slim. I’m feeling like being different today, so my pick is going to be the long shot Simplification. I like the Beyers, I like that he’s run with a few of the other horses, and I’m not nervous about the rain for him. Looking forward to sporting my big hat later.”
Maddie Sandholm
Pick: 6- Messier
“I got bullied about not forming a team of six tonight by one of the owners of this website (not naming names of course), so the number six is forever scarred into my mind. And everyone knows that messier rooms mean a more organized mind — at least that’s what I’ve been telling myself for years — so that must mean this horse is organized and ready to run really fast. Also my initials are MES so I feel like there’s some sort of underlying connection here.”
(Editor’s Note: When informed of the correct pronunciation of her pick’s name, Ms. Sandholm elected to stand by her original explanation.)
Tyler Zorn
Pick: 1- Mo Donegal
“Need Mo Donegal with the luck of the Irish. He has three first-place finishes in his last five races and has been displaying some ridiculous speed figures. He’s also gone head to head with some of the other contenders in this race and has had success.”
Gabby Etzel
Pick: 19- Zozos
“Zozos because it sounds like the name of my favorite demon to possess, Zak Bagans. I look forward to a wicked showing.”
Eddie Harrison
Pick: 6- Messier
“Steady Eddie prefers Messier. I don’t like the Rangers, but I know a kid whose middle name was Messier. If people are that dedicated to the guy, then I think he’ll be connected to success and therefore will be a winner.”
Patrick Cullinan
Pick: 7- Crown Pride
“It’s the only name I didn’t dislike (besides “smile happy”).”
Jill Rice
Pick: 9- Tiz the Bomb
“I’m going to go with Tiz the Bomb, of course, based on nothing but a cursory glance of names. I don’t recognize many of the horses from last time Pat had me do this, so I’m not going to go on any sort of “numbers of wins” tangent. Tiz the Bomb sounds like he’s related to Tiz the Law, and Tiz the Law did pretty well, or was expected to do pretty well, last year. Thus, siblings doing similar things and both winning (or getting close to it)!”
Grace Getman
Pick: 10- Zandon
“Zandon gives me major He-Man vibes.”
Corbin Gregg
Pick: 10- Zandon
“I think the start of his name going from the last letter to the first bodes well for his chances of pulling ahead here.”
Kreena Vora
Pick: 19- Zozos
“I think I’m gonna go with Zozos as my top pick. Pretty good stats, I like the name, I also like the owners, “Barry and Joni.” White Abarrio feels a bit too boring to me. Taiba I’m just not getting great vibes from. I think I am still rooting for Tawny Port though. Like as a longshot.”
Aurelien Clavaud
Pick: 12- Taiba
“I’m torn between Messier and Taiba because I remember you saying to me that one of them was good or both and you showed me the qualifying races. So I’m gonna say Taiba.”
Gabriella Bermudez
Pick: 9- Tiz the Bomb
“A lot of people are favoring Zandon to win. But I think that Tiz the Bomb is going to do it. Rumor has it, his versatility among track surfaces is what is going to help him most. I believe in Tiz the Bomb!”
Hugh Esterson
Pick: 14- Barber Road
“The next track I’m headed to is Barber Motorsports Park, and I’m gonna win a few races there. So it feels fitting to pick a horse with Barber in a race setting.”
Ed Jarvis
Pick: 4- Summer Is Tomorrow
“Feel good about it.”
Owen Roche
Prophecy: 11- Pioneer of Medina
Louisville native Jack Harlow is set to give the “Riders Up” call, and this weekend’s forecast is rainy and windy – as far as track conditions are concerned, it’s apt to ask “WHAT’S SLOPPIN’.”
Sloppy and muddy track conditions are notoriously hostile to front-runners at “The Greatest Two Minutes in Sports” (former name of my McMahon twin bed). Pioneer of Medina is a stalker, comfortable in the lead or following the leader close behind – a better strategy for suboptimal conditions1. When the deluge arrives, if there’s anyone who can turn sloppy seconds into sloppy firsts, it’s Pioneer of Medina.
Nothing is guaranteed – for all we know, by race-time conditions could be fast, or even good. For this long shot’s sake, however, we better hope we get sloppy this evening.
- See also: 1942 Sugar Bowl
Audrey O’Brien
Pick: 20- Ethereal Road
(Editor’s Note: After learning that Ethereal Road was scratched, Ms. O’Brien elected to choose another horse.)
Audrey’s Second Pick: 10- Zandon
“Also a cool name. Swag.”
Alyssa Macaluso
Pick: 15- White Abarrio
Though Tawny Port is a tasty wine and Cyberknife is a rad name, I am drawn most to White Abarrio. As one of the only gray-coated horses in the race, I’m drawn to his uniqueness (and his hairstyle is also really neat). I think White Abarrio has the chance to win, and I’m excited to see his “stalker” tactics play out on race day.
Asa Brandyberry
Pick: 6- Messier
Messier has a good combination of running style and 107 top speed that I hope will work well in a 20-horse field. If he can stay in one of the top spots, he has a chance to win. He has a good record and with the recent blowout at the Robert B Lewis Stakes AND using the same rider, I think his chance is good.
Chris Murray
Pick: 15- White Abarrio
“I don’t really know what I’m looking at in the data, but it seems like White Abarrio runs well on dirt, and he’s won a lot this year. I get the vibe that he’s underrated because he hasn’t been good for too long. Epicenter seems really strong and I’d probably pick him to be my favorite, but something stands out about White Abarrio. The international horses are also interesting.”
Ryan Heffron
Pick: 16- Cyberknife
“His name is so fucking badass! He sounds like a hacker in Blade Runner or some cyberpunk universe. Definitely has a bionic eye or something.”
Gil Russo
Pick: 16- Cyberknife
“This Derby belongs to Cyberknife. His name tells me that he’s sharp, on the cutting edge of horse racing, and ready to cut off all the competition like a speeding sports car driver on the highway. (But in a good, victorious way in this case). I’ll admit I wouldn’t normally go for a horse whose name sounds like a tech bro’s startup, but I got immediate good vibes because Cyberknife made me think of Cyberchase, which was my favorite show as a kid. If you know, you know.”
Juliana Burke
Pick: 2- Happy Jack
“This horse is no question the winner because happiness always wins. The name Jack also originates from medieval England, home to some of the most iconic champions. Taken together, the name signifies a healthy, strong, and energetic competitor — one who will prevail.”
Maryam Beshara
Pick: 3- Epicenter
“I hate being the center of attention, but Epicenter does not. With a name like that, it’s impossible to go for anyone else. Maybe Epicenter will embody the extrovert in me that doesn’t exist. Maybe Epicenter will allow me to feel seen. Maybe… maybe Epicenter will see me. In a conversation with Patrick Moquin Jr., Fordham College at Lincoln Center ’22 and creator of Paddy’s Picks, Moquin relayed his thoughts on Epicenter.
“Very versatile runner, very tactical,” he said. “He deserves the hype.”
This gives me confidence in my pick. I can’t wait to see what Epicenter does on and off the tracks.”
Clara Gerlach
Pick: 6- Messier
“It just sounds like a Canadian saying “messy, eh?””
Shaily Jani
Pick: 8- Charge It
“I have a good feeling about Charge It. It’s a gut feeling. I’m hungry. I think those are two separate gut feelings but only time will tell.”
Allie Stofer
Pick: 7- Crown Pride
“The royals always win (even if they have to rig it sometimes).”
Nicole Kraemer
Pick: 7- Crown Pride
“My sister plays lacrosse at the Queens University of Charlotte, and their mascot is the Royals. They have crowns, little crowns, that they use as their symbol. So Crown Pride seems right, and 7 is a lucky number.”
Emily Ellis
Pick: 8- Charge It
“Bop it! Twist it! I picked this horse because Pat said it had the best “daddy horse.””
Tony Kraus
Pick: 20- Ethereal Road
“He’s running on a different track from everyone else so that seems like a pretty big advantage. Also is he even a horse or just a road? If he’s a road, I don’t see how he could lose?”
(Editor’s Note: After learning that Ethereal Road was scratched, Mr. Kraus elected to stand by his pick.)
Christian Madlansacay
Pick: 4- Summer Is Tomorrow
“Summer is Tomorrow because it reminds me of 5 Seconds of Summer.”
Matt Ludington
Pick: 1- Mo Donegal
“Big Mo isn’t going to let me down.”