The Casual Bet is one of my favorite articles on big race days, and there’s no bigger day than the Kentucky Derby. Regulars and newcomers alike come together here to bet on instincts, hunches and an unparalleled amount of enthusiasm. On a day that especially appeals to fans and experts alike, their perspectives truly capture the essence of horse racing.
Kristina Stevanovic
Kristina Stevanovic makes her triumphant return to Paddy’s Picks for the Kentucky Derby. Since this website’s inception nearly a year ago, Kristina has contributed guest analysis for the Travers Stakes, Breeders’ Cup and Pegasus World Cup. Following this successful foray into equine journalism, she has since branched out and become the star tennis reporter for The Fordham Observer, of which I am coincidentally the Sports & Health Editor. Any way I can find to waste her time is time well spent.
Kristina’s knowledge of horse racing hasn’t improved at all since last year because she’s a highly successful psychology major with a life. Fortunately, her enthusiasm for the sport is as strong as ever, and that’s really all that matters. Her analysis is her own.
Kristina’s Pick: 19- Soup and Sandwich
“I googled precisely “soup and sandwich racing horse” to see what the ol’ beaut looks like. She/he looks like an undomesticated horse I would lasso in Red Dead 2 (courtesy of Rockstar Games) and make my own. So, for that reason and that reason only, I already have a connection to it. But besides that, give me one reason you wouldn’t root for a horse named SOUP AND SANDWICH. Again, that was SOUP AND SANDWICH. I’ve heard some good one’s before, but this one takes the cake (sandwich).
Not that I know anything or that anyone asked, but Like the King is my underdog pick and I would put my money on Medina Spirit (if I had any).
Signing off for now.”
Jill Rice
Congratulations are in order for The Fordham Observer’s new online editor, who somehow managed to give the paparazzi the slip for long enough to provide some Derby analysis. Jill’s promotion within the newspaper is obviously well-deserved, but I have to admit that I’m a little nervous. As copy editor, she may be the only person besides my mother who can say that she’s read everything I’ve ever written professionally. Moreover, her unparalleled editing skills have made my work look far better than I deserve. Is the world ready to learn that I really don’t know words good?
Jill’s approach to learning about horse racing has been nonchalant and haphazard. In fact, it sometimes feels like her dog takes precedence over my articulate explanations. Derby was adopted by the Rice family on the first Saturday in May, which is admittedly an excellent namesake. A photo is attached below.
Jill’s Pick: 20- Bourbonic
“Bourbonic sounds like a great coronavirus name, combining bourbon and the (bubonic) plague. In my heart of hearts, I want him to win. What a lovely time it would be, alcohol and the plague winning a race in 2021. It’s only appropriate.
However, knowing the tiny bit about odds that I do (Wikipedia is not very helpful and don’t tell Pat I wasn’t listening when he explained them to me), I think Essential Quality has that je ne sais quoi about him that will let him place well.”
Jacob Blank
Jacob Blank is my roommate, which is more of a chore than any one person should ever have to endure. Between his collegiate efforts in dance and mathematics, he often manages to confuse me in unique ways. He’s a model roommate and an extremely versatile individual, like a modern day renaissance man to my 1920s beat reporter.
Jacob’s Pick: 19- Soup and Sandwich
My rationale is that the name really pops. Out of the many names read to me, that was the name that most stood out to me — possibly because I was hungry at the time. I’ve got a soft spot for food, and I think that that really governed my decision overall. A soup and a sandwich, that’s a hearty meal, so I feel like this is a horse that can pack a punch. So I think he — it is a he, right?— has the best chance. It’s anyone’s game, but I think he’s more well-suited than the rest of these horses.
Mia Agostinelli
Mia Agostinelli is a newcomer to Paddy’s Picks, and in other news, she works dutifully as the features editor for The Observer. In a very short time, she’s made herself indispensable as an editor and has done great work alongside me and other editors in Sports & Health. She even wrote a football article in exchange for my attendance at an Observer event that required formal attire, which wouldn’t have been necessary had I not been insufferably resistant to the idea of getting a suit and spending time with my friends.
Unlike many in this article, Mia actually attempted to research the horses in the race in an effort to impress readers. Her attempt was successful, as her use of actual horse racing terminology borders on blasphemy in an article usually dedicated to hunches and general silliness.
Mia’s Bet: 9-10-14 Trifecta Box
“I can’t bet on one horse to win because I have absolutely no clue what I am talking about, so to increase my odds (maybe), I am hypothetically going to bet a trifecta box for Essential Quality, Midnight Bourbon, and Hot Rod Charlie (which, now that I’m reading it back, all sounds like a good time on it’s own).
How did I pick? In an effort to sound impressive, I looked at the winning history of all of the horses on the lineup. From there, I narrowed it down to the horses that had a win, place, or show finish over the last year and have run at least three times. Then, I used all of that obscure research to pick the top three horses that had the best odds.
I settled on a trifecta box after texting Pat about betting, then trying to recall my statistics knowledge of computations and permutations, and subsequently getting so frustrated from attempting to work out the math in my head that I just stopped thinking about it altogether. Despite my amateur analysis, if I was going to bet on one under-horse, it would have to be Soup and Sandwich for the name alone.
Will my lack of knowledge be sufficient enough to pick the winner? Yeah, probably not. But as Pat so eloquently said to me, ‘We’re all idiots, it’s a horse race.’”
Nicole Kraemer
Nicole has had the fortune of knowing me longer than anyone else in this article, and served as a key lobbyist during my sixth grade presidential run. Since graduating from Florence A. Smith Elementary School in 2012, she has gone on to study at Northeastern University. World domination is the inevitable next step.
Nicole’s Pick: 9- Hot Rod Charlie
“With no information besides the names and intuition, I choose Hot Rod Charlie. It was the first one I read. I was drawn to it for some reason.”
Maddie Sandholm
Maddie secretly likes working with me on The Observer. She doesn’t admit it because she’s a cool layout editor, but we all know the truth. Unlike her, I can readily admit that she’s a pleasure to work with, and I was extremely excited to hear that she will return to work with Sports & Health next year. She’ll probably ridicule me the entire time, but the articles will be beautiful.
Maddie’s Pick: 17- Highly Motivated
Reading through this list of horses (that I am extremely qualified to give my opinion on) one horse in particular stuck out: Highly Motivated. Is this because I am a college student going into finals for my third semester of online courses and am seeking any sliver of a mention of motivation I can get? Most definitely not, and I should be insulted that you thought that. Rather, motivation is a crucial attribute for any racing horse and Highly Motivated quite obviously excels in this field. This motivation allows Highly Motivated to set and reach goals, develop talents, and be creative (which is the most important part for a horse).
But, with school finals unfortunately fresh in my mind, Known Agenda and Essential Quality also stick out as top finishers, but nothing can be achieved without the proper motivation.
Hanna McCormack
I haven’t known Hanna for too long, but since meeting her last month, she’s quickly become a close friend of mine. An education major at Manhattan College, she is an extremely hard-working individual that puts me to shame when it comes to handling deadlines. She has also taught me how to pronounce various Gaelic names, though I still find the spellings preposterous.
Hanna’s Pick: 14- Essential Quality
After my pick King Fury was scratched, I saw the stats for Essential Quality, and I just had an education quiz on how essential it is for teachers to take time on the quality of their lessons. You’d think that’s a no brainer, but a lot of teachers aren’t taught strategies on the quality of material besides discipline and differentiation.
George (McKnight) said I should go for Rock Your World, which is a cool name, but he seems to be a favorite.
Known Agenda is my second choice, because of the stats and I forget the other reason. I have a good feeling about it.
Lastly, I would choose Brooklyn Strong because my mom’s from Brooklyn and everyone from there is badass and STRONG.
Chris Murray
Chris Murray will join me in the fall as The Observer’s newest assistant sports & health editor. He played on the varsity baseball team at Regis High School and graduated two years after I did. In his precious free time in high school, he even wrote for The Falcon, the sports publication I once ran as Editor in Chief. More recently, he provided guest analysis for the 2021 Pegasus World Cup Dirt on Paddy’s Picks. It’s a wonder that with all of these overlapping experiences we share, I have no idea who the hell he is. Never met the kid before in my life.
Chris knows very little about horse racing, but I hear he’s a real tall drink of water with boyish charm. Line up ladies.
Chris’ Pick: 9- Hot Rod Charlie
“Hot Rod Charlie is the right choice. In such a crowded race, it is probably beneficial to select the horse with a real engine to boost him towards the finish line. Being what one could only assume is a horse-car hybrid, Hot Rod Charlie is the clear selection.”
Roxanne Cubero
Roxanne’s great, but she was late to contribute to this article. She gets no introduction, so it’s fortunate that she doesn’t need one.
Roxanne’s Pick: 17- Highly Motivated
I hope this isn’t late but my pick is Highly Motivated! Simply because my Capricorn stellium (which means I have four Capricorn placements in my natal chart; aside: my sun, moon, rising and mercury are all in Capricorn if that tells you anything) called me to him. Something that I’ve learned whilst grappling with my Cap stellium is that sometimes, it’s not always about what you can accomplish, but the effort that you put into your endeavors and the things you learn from it. Thanks Pat for sending the stats, but i’m a dance major; I can’t count higher than 8. 🙂
Recap
Kristina: 19- Soup and Sandwich
Jill: 20- Bourbonic
Jacob: 19- Soup and Sandwich
Mia: 9-10-14 Tri Box
Nicole: 9- Hot Rod Charlie
Maddie: 17- Highly Motivated
Hanna: 14- Essential Quality
Chris: 9- Hot Rod Charlie
Roxanne: 17- Highly Motivated