Of all the articles I publish here on Paddy’s Picks, I must admit that the Casual Bet is consistently one of my favorites. The value it has to serious bettors has always been minimal and the opinions are, by design, coming from people with a limited view of the racing world. In many cases, the things that I share about the sport in conversation make up all or most of some contributors’ knowledge. But after nearly a year of producing various editions of this article, I’m happy to say that it has become a very enjoyable activity with my friends, and has captured exactly what I hoped it would.
In the early stages, some contributors jokingly commented that the reason the Casual Bet existed was for my condescending entertainment. Yet, at the same time, the people that regularly contribute do so with more enthusiasm than I ever could have hoped for. The original purpose of this article (besides being for my condescending entertainment) was to prove the point that the beauty of horse racing lies in the formation of an opinion. Anyone who has ever gone to a racetrack knows that betting on horses is a collaborative, highly opinionated exercise between people. There are an infinite number of ways of looking at a single race, and a good deal of those perspectives will yield the right answer in the form of a winner, either for wildly different reasons or no reason at all.
Whether the sport itself is entertaining is a matter of an individual’s taste, but my way of sharing a passion of mine with friends was to show them the inevitably human appeal of forming an opinion, however nonsensical, and having that opinion validated or rejected in an instant. I would say it has been a success. Two years ago, I highly doubt that Kristina Stevanovic would have seen herself pulling over her car to watch the 2020 Travers Stakes in a B.J.’s parking lot, or jumping around a pizzeria with $4 to win on Medina Spirit in the 2021 Kentucky Derby. Jill Rice and Mia Agostinelli, two highly respectable Observer editors, now have an extensive knowledge of the nation’s top three-year-olds on dirt. In a year, Niko Konstantellis has become a legitimate handicapper without asterisk or exception. Pretty cool, right?
This time around, my guests will be breaking down their picks for the 2021 Haskell Stakes, a fairly straightforward race with horses many of them will recognize from the Triple Crown. Six guests are returning and two, Cristine Kalinski and Eddie Harrison, are making their Casual Bet debuts with some very promising picks and prose. There will also be a slight twist in this edition, one that I happen to like. In addition to picks and reasoning, I have also asked guests to come up with a moniker or nickname for their new racetrack personalities. They will be provided below their names in quotes.
Official Paddy’s Picks analysis of the Haskell Stakes can be found here.
Kristina Stevanovic
“Kristina Jelly Bean-a”
Pick: 7- Basso
“Pretty darned pumped for this Haskell Invitational. I used to live in a town called Haskell, NJ, so maybe it’s the personal connection. Or maybe it’s just my absolute burning, newly found passion for horse racing. Upon first glance, I have to pick Basso because… Sacco. That’s just fun. Sacco Basso. We like to have fun on Paddy’s Picks, don’t we people?
I did check the sheet thing and this horse sucks, but I’m stickin’ with him. A speed of 60 (no units listed, I will call them horse speeds) compared to Hot Rod Charlie’s 108 horse speeds is just… yikes. But, there must be a reason this guy is running here, so this may just be the Christmas miracle we’ve all been longing for.”
Eddie Harrison
“Steady Eddie”
Pick: 1- Following Sea
“In the words of the late John Fitzgerald Kennedy: “All of us have in our veins the exact same percentage of salt in our blood that exists in the ocean, and, therefore, we have salt in our blood, in our sweat, in our tears. We are tied to the ocean.” I have a gut feeling that a certain horse previously trained by Bob Baffert will have a little bit more of that salt in his veins than the rest of us. My blood, sweat, and tears will be for Following Sea.”
Jill Rice
“Rice Dicer”
Pick: 4- Hot Rod Charlie
“I read this article in the Wall Street Journal about Hot Rod Charlie and his owners and so I’m on their side. It was heartwarming and they’re just a bunch of bros owning a horse. I think the horse also did pretty well in some race not too long ago. I’m rooting for him! Mandaloun sounds like Mandalorian and Star Wars people are weird. Following Sea is D, which is a nearly failing grade. Not a good look, man. Antigravity is pretty slow, I feel like, too. As a recently turned 21-year-old, I have to give kudos to Midnight Bourbon as well.”
Niko Konstantellis
“Nicky Suave Wit Da Numbaz”
Pick: 6- Midnight Bourbon
“Hot Rod Charlie is probably the best horse in this race and, in theory, deserves the win I think, but something about Midnight Bourbon has me picking him in every race. I love the trainer, the jockey is solid, and he’s been beat out by great horses and a few flukes. If Hot Rod Charlie wins, I won’t be mad but any other result besides an M.B. win would add to a list of undeserving losses.”
Cristine Kalinski
“The Dame of Del Mar”
Pick: 4- Hot Rod Charlie
“My pick is #4 Hot Rod Charlie from California. The name says it all, “hot rod,” reminding you of an awesome car that was built specifically for speed, and “Charlie,” reminding me of an old man’s name. This leads me to believe that this horse knows what he is doing and has already won his share of races. I’m basically endorsing a horse named ‘fast veteran,’ making him the obvious choice.”
Hugh Esterson
“Hughie the Mush”
Pick: 6- Midnight Bourbon
“I’m going with Midnight Bourbon, not only because it’s reminiscent of my grandfather’s favorite late-night adult beverage. They say past performance is not indicative of future results, but both the jockey and horse have been strong recently. M.B. is coming off an impressive runner-up at this year’s Preakness, and local call-up jockey Paco Lopez has won nine races in the past week.”
Mia Agostinelli
“Garland o’ Roses”
Pick: 4- Hot Rod Charlie
“I have to say when Paddy asked me to participate in the casual bet for this weekend I was more than honored to contribute my absolute lack of knowledge. While I am not as diligent of a racing fan as some others on this horse blog, I have been inspired by the passion that surrounds this sport, and the people who love it, to contribute what little analysis that I can possibly muster. With the sappy stuff aside, I am keeping in my Casual Bet tradition of betting a trifecta box for this race which includes all familiar names: Hot Rod Charlie, Mandaloun, and Midnight Bourbon.
The favorite, Hot Rod Charlie, was an obvious pick because, like I said before, I have no idea what I am talking about. And in a seven horse race I would hope that my chances are good enough that by picking the favorite, they would at least show. Mandaloun was my next pick with his second place finish at the Derby followed by a first place finish last time out, general improvement overall throughout the spring and summer and some decent odds for this race in particular. My third choice is somewhat of a wild card that, again, is not really that wild given my limited options to pick from at this point. Over his racing career, Midnight Bourbon has finished in the top three in every race run except in the Derby, and in my book that is good enough grounds to fill out the rest of this hypothetical box.
Will my picks hold up? My hope is yes and the odds say maybe, but the horses racing today might do otherwise. However, no matter which horse comes out on top, you now know exactly where to find me at 5:47 p.m.”
Chris Murray
“Twice a Day Murray”
Pick: 4- Hot Rod Charlie
“Hot Rod Charlie is my guy. I’m going to be completely honest, I didn’t even look at the names of the other horses because I am so confident in Charlie. He may have let me down the last time I picked him, but I know he won’t let me down again. He is legitimately named after a car. The other horses don’t stand a chance, just like I said last time I picked him. – Twice a Day”
Recap
Kristina Jelly Bean-a: 7- Basso
Steady Eddie: 1- Following Sea
Rice Dicer: 4- Hot Rod Charlie
Nicky Suave Wit Da Numbaz: 6- Midnight Bourbon
Dame of Del Mar: 4- Hot Rod Charlie
Hughie the Mush: 6- Midnight Bourbon
Garland o’ Roses: 4- Hot Rod Charlie
Twice a Day: 4- Hot Rod Charlie