Tag: Road to the Derby

Road to the Derby: Fountain of Youth Stakes Analysis

Though the New York contingent is stepping up its game, the 2022 running of the Fountain of Youth is still probably the most competitive Derby prep this weekend. There are plenty of runners coming out of allowance competition while the others are either coming off of long layoffs or recovering from them. There’s a lot to like here.

As a prep to the Florida Derby, this is a very helpful race, but since 2000, only one winner of the Fountain of Youth has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby (Orb in 2013). I’m not sure if the winner of this year’s Derby is in these ranks, but they won’t get there if they don’t get out of the starting gate in March. read more

Road to the Derby: San Felipe Stakes Analysis

In last year’s San Felipe, Life Is Good established himself as a potential Triple Crown winner with one of the most formidable victories in recent Derby prep memory. Though an injury kept him out of all three races, he eventually returned and is now the best dirt horse in the country.

This year’s running of the San Felipe does not seem to feature anyone as strong; in fact, most of the runners are either fixer uppers or untested at route distances. But hey, as long as Baffert horses aren’t collecting Derby points, I’m content with the California racing scene. Let’s take a quick peek and get out of here. read more

Road to the Derby: Gotham Stakes Analysis

The New York division of three-year-olds is finally picking up a little in this year’s running of the Gotham Stakes. With a handful of runners shipping north from Florida and a few more coming out of allowance and statebred competition, the field has a hastily put together feel that I can actually appreciate.

One of my last trips to Aqueduct was for the 2017 running of the Gotham, when J Boys Echo upset El Areeb before getting crushed on the Triple Crown trail. It may not be the most valuable Derby prep in March, but it has a place in my upbringing, and that has to count for something. Let’s get into it. read more

Road to the Derby: Risen Star Stakes Analysis

I’m not sure if sitting in a Pennsylvania diner is really getting the muses going, but this article needs an introduction and I’m the man for the job.

This weekend, everyone’s favorite New York handicapper finds himself abroad to visit his sister, and I have to admit that I’m not cut out for country living. Waiting outside the Waffle Shop North in State College this morning, my family and I experienced our first squall. I don’t know the exact definition of a squall, but I can describe it well enough now. In one moment, visibility decreased to 30 feet as sudden gusts of wind blew snow around like Super Bowl confetti. There was an inch on the ground within minutes, but it ended as soon as it began. This place is bizarre. read more

Road to the Derby: Sam F. Davis Stakes Analysis

I don’t care if you’re working on your nacho recipe for Sunday; I need every Paddy’s Picks reader to stop what they’re doing and look at this Derby prep. It’s imperative if they consider themselves handicappers.

This year’s running of the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs probably won’t produce the next Kentucky Derby winner. That’s not what I’m offering by forcing all of you to look at it. What I can offer, however, is one of the most challenging handicapping tests I’ve ever seen. read more

Road to the Derby: Robert B. Lewis Stakes Analysis

Who doesn’t love a small field at Santa Anita? Wait, no one? No one likes small fields at Santa Anita? I know one guy who appreciates them.

Last year’s running of the Robert B. Lewis Stakes was won by future Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit and trainer Bob Baffert. Though Baffert has now won the Robert B. Lewis in three straight years, the domination didn’t start in 2019, as he has also won it nine times since 1999.

But when Medina Spirit failed a drug test shortly after his Derby win, a revolution ignited in the racing world. Baffert was “canceled” by Twitter users and the liberal media after years of controversy, and he hasn’t laid a finger on a horse since. Meanwhile, California has quickly become a haven for drug-free racing and proper animal care. Politics and corruption became a thing of the past when the racing world took a big step forward. read more

Road to the Derby: Holy Bull Stakes Analysis

Those who have known about Holy Bull since the 1990s will have to forgive me for discovering him during the pandemic. I knew his name before then, of course, but I didn’t look into his career in earnest until I literally had all the time in the world. When I watched his races, I saw a prototype for racing as I understand it today. I was amazed.

Before Mike Smith was a jockey to the stars, he was the jockey to this star, a powerful speedball that dared the competition to catch him. His Travers win was one of the gutsiest a racing fan could ever hope for, and Durkin’s call that day could not have been improved upon by any writer. But there were flaws in the Bull’s career too.  read more

Road to the Derby: Withers Stakes Analysis

Aqueduct doesn’t produce Kentucky Derby winners. It hasn’t for some time. In 2000, Fusaichi Pegasus won the Wood Memorial before taking down a weak Derby field, becoming the first to pull off the feat since Pleasant Colony in 1981. In 2003, Funny Cide lost in the Wood but went on to win at Churchill, much like Secretariat did 30 years prior. But in general, New York is no longer the place for Derby hopefuls to spend their winter months. This race seems to confirm that.

The 2022 running of the Withers Stakes is an improvement on the Jerome Stakes, the race before this one on the Aqueduct trail to the Derby. But the new faces in this field aren’t as fresh as they are around the country. New York’s best representative, Mo Donegal, has shipped to Florida to run in the G3 Holy Bull instead. There are at least four runners in that field at Gulfstream that could win this race by five lengths. read more

Road to the Derby: Southwest Stakes Analysis

Before we continue my study of the Kentucky Derby prep season, we have two orders of business to go through. The first is a short review of an unfortunate beat, and the second concerns today’s Pegasus World Cup.

Last week’s Lecomte Stakes was a solid start to this series on Paddy’s Picks, despite an unfortunate nose bob at the finish. Interestingly, I watched the race on my phone in Duet 35, a karaoke bar in Midtown that I have now inexplicably been to twice in the last six months. As I struggled to come to terms with this new lifestyle of mine, I watched as my top pick, Epicenter, powered into the stretch while putting away Pappacap and all other challengers. It seemed like a certain win until it didn’t. read more

Road to the Derby: Lecomte Stakes Analysis

It’s often said that learning the art of handicapping demands a high tuition, and while I’m certain that I’m still reconciling losses made during my elementary school years, I consider my early days in the pastime to be fortuitous at the very least. My scores on some of racing’s biggest events over the years have yielded countless memories and made for a supremely enjoyable pastime. 

In 2016, I was confident in Exaggerator’s chances in the slop against Nyquist and was rewarded accordingly. In 2019, my confidence in Sir Winston and Tacitus in the Belmont led to a tidy profit that kept me afloat for the rest of that year. Most Breeders’ Cups are successful ventures in some sense, as well as the Travers and Pegasus World Cup. In fact, there’s only one annual race remaining that continues to elude me. read more