The Go-To Second Opinion at the Track
The Preakness Stakes has been disappointing for me in recent years. This may sound ungrateful, and it is, but one must admit that it’s been a rough couple of years for the poor Triple Crown race.
While a winning ticket in the Kentucky Derby still eludes me, the race always promises elite competition and excitement. The Belmont Stakes is usually a wonderfully unique contest and fascinating handicapping exercise in my home state. More often than not, the Preakness doesn’t offer any of this.
Necessity is the mother of invention, and I really needed to sleep. When guests came forward to provide their Preakness analysis for Paddy’s Picks last week, I assumed that I would be able to produce an article on the day of my graduation ceremony. I was even willing to put it together during the ceremony itself. But in my black robes on a 90-degree day on Saturday, I entered a nearly incoherent state by noon, and couldn’t do much more than sit and stare at the floor until my name was called to receive a diploma. I would apologize, but many of the guests in this article were present with me that day and were similarly delirious. So instead of apologizing, I’m offering a new alternative.
Anyone catch that race two weeks ago?
For those of you who invested four months of reading into my “Road to the Derby” series, I have no apology or explanation for what happened on the first Saturday in May. All I can say is that horse racing can be wildly unpredictable. In order to pick Rich Strike to win the Kentucky Derby, I would’ve required divine intervention or complete abandon of reason. But some people won money, didn’t they?
Concerning the owners of Rich Strike and their decision to skip the Preakness to focus on the Belmont, I think it’s a cowardly move that also makes sense. It’s an unwritten rule that a healthy Derby winner must run in the Preakness, but it’s also clear to most that he would’ve been hard-pressed to repeat. As my analysis is about to make clear, there’s a very likely winner here, one that Rich Strike should be familiar with. Let’s get into it.
First and foremost, I would like to apologize to anyone who had to read my Kentucky Derby analysis (special shoutout to Chris Reynolds), but the good thing about hitting rock bottom is that there is nowhere else to go but up. Here is my analysis of the Preakness where I hope to have some more luck today. Good luck to everyone and happy betting. 🙂
This horse is a little rough. It is not an encouraging sign that Irad Ortiz jumped off of this horse to ride the 5, Midnight Bourbon, and was replaced by an inferior jockey, Santana. I am also not overly fond of trainer D. Wayne Lukas. While this horse has done well in his last two races, his speed figures are terrible, with his highest being an 81, which will not cut it. Overall, I don’t think that this horse is going to win the race today.
I wonder how much money Medina Spirit has swindled out of people over the years with his little doping scheme. I bet he thought he was real clever about it; he sure pulled the wool over Bob Baffert’s eyes. He was dumbfounded — never saw it coming — and he’s been getting tricked by these horses for years. He was totally outfoxed when Charlatan and Gamine started shooting up behind his back at Oaklawn last year, and he wasn’t even around when Justify intimidated the California Racing Board into sweeping another failed test under the rug before the 2018 Derby. Poor Bob. Every time the guy leaves the state of California, his horses start abusing illegal medications.
The heroes have been vanquished. Last month, Tiz the Law’s dominant three-year-old campaign came to a screeching halt in a Kentucky Derby defeat to Authentic that still seems surreal upon rewatching. Meanwhile, super filly Gamine struggled mightily in the Oaks as she succumbed to more demanding route conditions. Both runners are skipping the month of October in preparation for the Breeders’ Cup, leaving fans in a slightly more dull world on Preakness Day.
