Tag: Kentucky Derby

Race of the Day: 2023 Kentucky Derby Analysis

I woke up this morning and the sky was falling. Several of my guest handicappers had already heard the news and were frantically texting me. It’s taken a few hours, but I believe I’m finally ready to complete my Derby analysis once and for all.

Kentucky Derby favorite Forte’s withdrawal from the race this morning sent shockwaves throughout the racing community as everyone frantically tries to evaluate the race without him in it. It feels more wide open than ever and I’ve had to slowly come to a new understanding. read more

Why They’ll Lose: Drawing a Line Through Every Horse in the 2023 Kentucky Derby

Unlike my previous article, this is is somewhat outside my comfort zone. I definitely prefer looking for upside in horse racing, as well as most other things, so finding fault in each Kentucky Derby runner was a unique challenge. Such an exercise is necessary, however.

Before any bettor can fully throw his support behind a runner, understanding how that horse might lose is imperative. Locks are incredibly rare, as the random nature of the sport makes them technically impossible.

It hurt me to insult some of the horses in this race, as they’ve truly impressed me and will have my support this Saturday. Others were fairly easy to rule out for any number of reasons, some plain and some more nuanced. read more

Why They’ll Win: Making a Case for Every Horse in the 2023 Kentucky Derby

We’ve all had that moment at the track where we look at a horse in the Daily Racing Form and get hooked. All the signs of a winner are there, and the warning bells that ring perpetually in handicappers’ ears become dulled by an attractive price on the tote board.

It’s surprisingly easy to grow enamored by stats on paper, especially when they’re inextricably tied to potentially profitable flesh and blood on the track. But when these feelings set in, some self-doubt may form as well. read more

Derby Prep Saturday: Cross Country Analysis

Three important preps for the Kentucky Derby will occur Saturday across the country in the span of an hour. Winners of the Blue Grass Stakes, Santa Anita Derby and Wood Memorial Stakes will qualify automatically for the Kentucky Derby. All three races feature wide open fields. Have I built up enough drama?

While I haven’t been able to produce much content for Paddy’s Picks as of late, it doesn’t mean that I’ve been far from the racing scene. I’ve been paying more than enough attention to know that today’s slate of preps provide as much opportunity to horsemen as they will to bettors. Let’s take a look, starting with the Blue Grass. read more

The People’s Race: Kentucky Derby Guest Analysis

Everyone needs a pick for the Kentucky Derby. It’s mandatory in my opinion. Every year in May, 20 entrants run in the most chaotic event in North American horse racing; it’s an opportunity for the most experienced and most fun-loving to congregate for a relatively random chance at a massive payout. 

For the race that everyone should have a pick for, I asked — well, almost everyone, but I tried to focus on people that wouldn’t have picked a horse otherwise. Annoying people in the name of racing awareness is kind of my thing at this point. They never see it coming. Within this chaotic piece, prophecies, gut feelings, mispronunciations and sound logic await. I’ve made no attempt to organize any of it. Happy Derby Day! read more

Road to the Derby: Kentucky Derby Analysis

We’re at our last stop, aren’t we? After months of studying in an effort to understand the Kentucky Derby, 20 horses will now converge at Churchill Downs. I’ve made money on a few of them, lost more on others, but it has all led to this. Let’s see if I’ve learned anything.

By now, I’ve waxed poetic about the history, opined about current events in the racing world and given you a little about my personal life in this series along the way. Hell, I told my readers about an ill-fated karaoke experience, if that ever meant anything to you. But as the Derby approaches, this one should come down to the analysis. Let’s get to it. read more

New Wave: Novice Handicappers Bet the 2021 Kentucky Derby

My apprentice handicappers have to have their say as well, especially on racing’s biggest day. For the Kentucky Derby, four of my friends continue to hone their craft and tackle one of the toughest events of the year. 

It may serve as more of a warmup for them as a very active summer of gambling approaches, and what better way to get going than a 20-horse stampede?

Niko Konstantellis

Horses That Have a Shot: Mandaloun, Medina Spirit, Hot Rod Charlie, Midnight Bourbon, Essential Quality, Rock Your World, Highly Motivated

Horses That Won’t Win: Like the King, Keepmeinmind, Sainthood, O Besos, Dynamic One, Hidden Stash, Bourbonic, Soup and Sandwich

My Pick

Rock Your World and Midnight Bourbon create a bad trip for Essential Quality, his first bad trip ever.  Essential Quality is the favorite for a reason and will get out in the front of the pack but will be beaten today.  Rock Your World got the nod from jockey Joel Rosario and he’s getting the nod from me today.   read more

The Casual Bet: 2021 Kentucky Derby “Analysis”

The Casual Bet is one of my favorite articles on big race days, and there’s no bigger day than the Kentucky Derby. Regulars and newcomers alike come together here to bet on instincts, hunches and an unparalleled amount of enthusiasm. On a day that especially appeals to fans and experts alike, their perspectives truly capture the essence of horse racing.

Paddy’s Picks 2021 Kentucky Derby Preview

I know what you’re all here for. At this point, I would usually take this opportunity to talk about the Kentucky Derby, its meaning to horse racing and its deep roots in American culture. But I’m approaching the end of another semester in college here, and to be honest, I’m a little fatigued. 

After months of building up hype for Fordham Athletics, which I dutifully cover for The Fordham Observer, I’m finally covering an event that needs no introduction. This is the Kentucky Derby, the Run For The Roses, the Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports. To try to excite my audience about this race would be to pour a bucket of stagnant water into a river. So for once, I’m not going to wax poetic about the feats of Secretariat or Tom Durkin or Hunter S. Thompson. All that came yesterday. Now is the time to analyze some horses. Welcome back folks. read more