Why They’ll Lose: Drawing a Line Through Every Horse in the 2023 Kentucky Derby

Unlike my previous article, this is is somewhat outside my comfort zone. I definitely prefer looking for upside in horse racing, as well as most other things, so finding fault in each Kentucky Derby runner was a unique challenge. Such an exercise is necessary, however.

Before any bettor can fully throw his support behind a runner, understanding how that horse might lose is imperative. Locks are incredibly rare, as the random nature of the sport makes them technically impossible.

It hurt me to insult some of the horses in this race, as they’ve truly impressed me and will have my support this Saturday. Others were fairly easy to rule out for any number of reasons, some plain and some more nuanced. read more

Why They’ll Win: Making a Case for Every Horse in the 2023 Kentucky Derby

We’ve all had that moment at the track where we look at a horse in the Daily Racing Form and get hooked. All the signs of a winner are there, and the warning bells that ring perpetually in handicappers’ ears become dulled by an attractive price on the tote board.

It’s surprisingly easy to grow enamored by stats on paper, especially when they’re inextricably tied to potentially profitable flesh and blood on the track. But when these feelings set in, some self-doubt may form as well. read more

Derby Prep Saturday: Cross Country Analysis

Three important preps for the Kentucky Derby will occur Saturday across the country in the span of an hour. Winners of the Blue Grass Stakes, Santa Anita Derby and Wood Memorial Stakes will qualify automatically for the Kentucky Derby. All three races feature wide open fields. Have I built up enough drama?

While I haven’t been able to produce much content for Paddy’s Picks as of late, it doesn’t mean that I’ve been far from the racing scene. I’ve been paying more than enough attention to know that today’s slate of preps provide as much opportunity to horsemen as they will to bettors. Let’s take a look, starting with the Blue Grass. read more

On the Derby Trail: Saturday, March 6, 2021

What better way to unwind from a chaotic writing schedule than to write for fun? After several months of fervent sports coverage for The Fordham Observer, I recently managed to find a sliver of time this weekend to return to Paddy’s Picks. In the span of one hour this evening, three prep races for the Kentucky Derby will be run at three different tracks across the country, and I’ve taken the time to analyze all three.