Handicapping Roundtable: BC Filly and Mare Sprint

From my mother, Joan Moquin: It’s that time of year again when the air turns crisp, Belmont weather requires a jacket and hot toddy to endure the day’s card and all eyes turn to sunny California for the Breeder’s Cup.

From my sister, Emma Moquin: Very curious. I put Bella Sofia on top for that race, which is a hot take, but I couldn’t pick Gamine for the 1000th time in my life.

Race 4

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt read more

Full Analysis: 2021 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint

Race 5

Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Five Furlongs on the Turf

1- Glass Slippers (GB)

The reigning champion in this race has been a little flat in 2021, finishing third in three races in Europe. Trainer Kevin Ryan gave her a similar schedule to the one from 2020 to prepare her, but she hasn’t been nearly as sharp. Her win last year was more a result of fortunate circumstances than her ability, and she’s an easy one to fade this time around.

2- Emaraaty Ana (GB)

My technique in Breeders’ Cup races is to find a runner rounding into condition, and this gelding seems razor sharp. His most recent performance in the Betfair Sprint Cup was his first G1 win and he won it with a career-best 120 Timeform Rating. He seems a little more comfortable at six furlongs but has also been very effective at five. I would love to know how she handles turns, but the fact that that’s the primary concern is an encouraging sign. read more

Full Analysis: 2021 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint

Any real reader of Paddy’s Picks can predict the direction that I’m going in for this one. But stick around anyway; I’ve been told that I’m at my most entertaining when I’m not trying to be. I won’t even take up too much of your time — there’s not much to go over here.

Reigning champion Gamine has managed to scare away most of her competition, and if she loses, nearly every multi-race bet in the country will collapse on the first leg. For those seeking value, it’s probably best to skip this one and watch. read more

Casual Bet: BC Juvenile Turf

For the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, the final race of Breeders’ Cup Friday, two veteran guests are being joined by two newcomers making their official debuts. My excitement is palpable as this formidable quartet tackles one of the toughest races on the card.

In nearly two years, Grace Getman and Esme Bleecker-Adams have grown into vaguely unfamiliar horse racing analysts before readers’ eyes. Meanwhile, Corbin Gregg and Kreena Vora are brand new contributors, unsure of their place on this website but eager to learn the ways of the sport. read more

Casual Bet: BC Juvenile Analysis

The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile is an important race every year, as it gives racing fans a very early picture of the possible Kentucky Derby contenders the following year. To properly cover this event in all its glory, here are the thoughts of three people who don’t know what they’re talking about.

Matt Ludington makes his debut on Paddy’s Picks after years of ignorance about its existence. The same hard-working, intelligent pre-med student who thought that The Observer was a sports-only publication is as new to the idea of Paddy’s Picks as he is to the sport of racing itself. Double the confusion, double the fun. read more

Casual Bet: BC Juvenile Fillies Turf Analysis

This is admittedly a crowded article, but it’s simply a testament to the enthusiasm my Fordham Observer colleagues bring to the sport of racing. Unlike almost every other guest article on Paddy’s Picks this weekend, this has absolutely no intrinsic value as an analytic piece. But damn it if it doesn’t have style.

Maddie Sandholm, the Layout Editor/Assistant Sports Social Media Editor/Contributing Writer of The Fordham Observer, returns with prose that betrays her background in visual arts. Creative Director Roxanne Cubero’s prose is… also good. Meanwhile, Opinions Editor Clara Gerlach, Copy Editor Emily Ellis, and News Editor Allie Stofer all make exceedingly promising debuts as valuable contributors to a very silly premise. read more

Casual Bet: BC Juvenile Fillies Analysis

To properly understand the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies this year, the input of these three guests is paramount. In fact, missing this article may account for thousands in losses for anyone naive enough to overlook it. All three guests stayed up for nights on end deciphering this puzzle, and their findings are nothing short of astounding.

At this point, any loyal Paddy’s Picks reader should be familiar with Jill “Rice Dicer” Rice and Gillian Russo, who have been enthusiastic guests on this website since its inception. Their work is readily available across the majority of my past big race coverage, and their talents in the racing world and in all of their other efforts are common knowledge. read more

Casual Bet: BC Juvenile Turf Sprint Analysis

The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, as it is seen by handicappers and casual bettors alike, is about as easy as a Rubik’s Cube to figure out. Who better to solve the puzzle than some of the overthinking graduates of Regis High School?

Chris Murray, once known as a “Twice a Day” on Paddy’s Picks, knows absolutely nothing about horse racing. In fact, he holds a strong pet theory that horses aren’t real, though I won’t pretend to understand the intricate nuances of his argument. One might expect such inexperienced analysis to resemble the comments of a five-year-old, but Chris consistently shoots for the stars in everything he does. His stuff is suitable for second graders at the very least. read more

Breeders’ Cup Friday Master List

First, I owe my readers a long overdue apology. In my defense, I really thought things were going well before hunger, friendship, the nation of Mongolia, unexpectedly compelling persuasion, and a fair bit of alcohol intervened.

At this time last year, my analysis for the Friday card of the 2020 Breeders’ Cup was ready and available to readers. My guests were all accounted for and the rest of my picks were essentially figured out for Saturday. All I had to do was write. 

I was feeling extraordinarily confident as I stood on the precipice of something great. Sure, it would cost me a Friday night of galavanting, but what was one night? This was the Breeders’ Cup, the sporting event I loved most in this world, and I was projecting it to be one of the most successful weekends in this website’s history.  read more

Full Analysis: 2021 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf

I’m glad this race is on last on Breeders’ Cup Friday, as it is the most interesting of the juvenile races. A very deep field of juvenile turfers seems poised to put on a wild race, and picking four runners still isn’t enough to narrow down the contenders.

Sometimes, talented turf runners at two have a habit of disappearing later in their career. Therefore, it’s important to appreciate these precocious stars while they’re in the spotlight.

Race 10

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) for Two-Year-Olds, 1 Mile on the Turf read more