The Travers Stakes always comes up at an awkward point in the Paddy’s Picks calendar. With a full slate of work due at Fordham in recent years and now at Columbia, publishing consistent analysis in late August is always a difficult task. There are few races in the United States that would necessitate dropping everything for a Saturday, but Saratoga provides.
This year’s running of the Midsummer Derby is wide open, with at least six of the eight runners qualifying as legitimate contenders. The top three finishers in the Kentucky Derby, as well as the Preakness and Haskell winners, are all making an appearance in a race that typically concludes the three-year-old season with the Breeders’ Cup looming.
Though I simply didn’t have the time this week to provide full-card analysis for Saturday, nearly every race is championship-caliber and worth watching. The Travers is still the crown jewel though and should live up to expectations this year. Let’s take a look.
Saratoga, Race 11
Travers Stakes (G1) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 ¼ Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 5:44 p.m. EST
1- Cyberknife
He continues to move in the right direction, and a win in the G1 Haskell over Taiba and Jack Christopher seemed to confirm that he’s the real deal with four victories in 2022. The colt still has something to prove, however, as he has always run his best races at a slightly lower level. He won the G1 Arkansas Derby but disappointed in Kentucky, and victories in the G3 Matt Winn and Haskell aren’t the same as winning the Travers. A minor prize is well within range in any case.
2- Rich Strike
The Kentucky Derby winner is 10-1 on the morning line, a deserving designation after he returned to form in the Belmont Stakes in June. Because of his absurd Derby victory, it’s necessary to note that he could benefit from an outrageous pace scenario. Beyond that though, it’s difficult to see him making any impact here.
3- Ain’t Life Grand
I’ve never seen a horse bred in Iowa before, and I certainly didn’t think I would see one in this year’s Travers. I could poke holes in his form all day, as there are a litany of questions that he needs to answer to demonstrate his value here. But he is coming into the race off two solid wins, including one in the Iowa Derby over the highly touted runner Conagher.
4- Gilded Age
He’s a hard-trying colt but hasn’t come close to proving himself competitive in a field of this caliber. He’ll have to improve dramatically.
5- Artorius
In some years, late bloomers in the Travers have had a distinct advantage over their more experienced three-year-olds, and this colt fits the bill as a potential spoiler. In three career starts, he has consistently improved and took a commanding step forward while stretching out in the Curlin last time out. He’ll have to improve again to contend against this field, but it’s hard to rule out that possibility for the Chad Brown runner.
6- Epicenter
You know what you’re going to get with this colt. Though he’s a competitor who has demonstrated a good deal of heart, it’s difficult to deny at this point that he also has a firm ceiling. As the favorite in the race, that ceiling is obviously very high and he has an astounding level of consistency as well. If a 102 BSF is enough to win this race, then he’ll be right there at the wire. But if other runners, many of them familiar to him at this point, improve beyond what he has run previously, it’s difficult to see him posing a serious threat at a prohibitively short price. He’ll be in the mix but there may be better value out there.
7- Early Voting
The Preakness winner returned in July and lost without an excuse. In a four-horse running of the G2 Jim Dandy, he found a comfortable early lead but faded badly anyway, conceding early in the stretch to fellow runners Epicenter and Zandon. The 105 BSF he earned in the Preakness shouldn’t be forgotten entirely, as that performance came in his second start off a short layoff, identical conditions entering this race. If he returns to form, he has a solid opportunity to find the same front-running trip he failed to capitalize on last time. Bettors shouldn’t let him get away at the right price.
8- Zandon
When is this colt going to break through? His win in the G1 Blue Grass seemed like the start of something great, and while he hasn’t been bad since, he’s consistently run behind fellow runner Epicenter. In the G2 Jim Dandy last time out, he fired fresh off a short layoff, earning a 100 BSF despite running closer to the pace than he typically does. Improvement is needed.
Order: 5 7 6 1
Artorius is short on experience but long on potential, and if there’s a candidate for improvement in this field, I have to imagine it’s him. Chad Brown knows how to handle precocious runners and he wouldn’t be in this race if he didn’t have a chance. Early Voting didn’t run well last time out in the G2 Jim Dandy, but he’s already proven that he’s not the type to fire fresh off the layoff. He improved on his debut at two and again going from the G2 Wood Memorial to the Preakness. It’s reasonable to expect more improvement.
Epicenter has every chance to win this race as the deserving favorite, but he’s not the only one, and I have to consider longer prices in a wide open race. Cyberknife hasn’t taken a step out of place since a poor start in the Kentucky Derby, but I have to wonder if the campaign is going to start wearing on him at some point.