Handicappers live for days like this one. Whitney Day at Saratoga is one of the most popular days in the horse racing calendar every year, and along with Travers and Woodward Day, is one of the Crown Jewels of the Saratoga meet. Some of the fastest horses in the country will square off today in several different divisions, and the only regret a horseplayer could have is that they’re not allowed to attend. Let’s try our best to enjoy it from home.
Note: The first 11 are up, the last one is coming.
Race 1
$72,000 Maiden Special Weight for Two-Year-Olds, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
I’m pretty sure that this race will end up being live in retrospect. These seem like some very promising two-year-olds, and while it’s tough to tell now, the connections and some of the purchase prices make the picture pretty clear. My top four:
1- Olympiad
1A- Outlier
Outlier is a bonus here. Steve Asmussen and Ricardo Santana are working together on a firster with a solid workout tab and 325 Tomlinson for the distance. That’s nice, but I’m more interested in the other half. If Bill Mott wins with firsters, they have to be quick in the morning. Olympiad fits the bill, having put up several very sharp workouts recently. In addition, he has a 419 Tomlinson and Junior Alvarado on his back, and I think he’s a very interesting runner for Mott, who usually saves his talented two-year-olds for this meet.
4- Windcracker
Of the two runners in this race with experience, I definitely prefer this one. In that first start, he ran well to finish third that day, and in that race, three of the top five have run since. The winner and this colt haven’t, but two of them have won their next starts and the other finished second. That qualifies as a live race for me, and while I have a suspicion that this race features some very promising colts, experience can be very important. He’ll have to take a step forward, but I can see that happening.
3- Reinvestment Risk
Chad Brown, Klaravich, and Irad Ortiz are at Saratoga to wreak havoc, and they seem to have an able first time starter to do so here. The colt has a solid work tab and a 376 Tomlinson for the distance.
8- Team Merchants
Doug O’Neill doesn’t often bring anything east, so it’s cool to see a Reddam two-year-old make his debut here. He’s been lightning quick in the mornings and has a 347 Tomlinson for the distance. Manny Franco and O’Neill have never worked together.
Order: 1/1A 4 3 8
Olympiad seems like a very promising Bill Mott runner that will respond on first asking, and Outlier is certainly nice to have in the package. Windcracker is exiting a very live maiden race in which he ran very well, and there’s a lot to like as he makes his second start. Reinvestment Risk is certainly the type of runner that wins at Saratoga, as his connections tower over the New York scene. Team Merchants, however, has a California flare with O’Neill and Reddam, and is yet another intriguing entry.
Race 2
$62,000 Allowance Optional Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races
Whoever wins this race will likely try a stakes next time out. There are several immensely talented runners here, and the stretch run may come down to multiple runners across the track.
1- Fog of War
This colt hasn’t won since 2018, but I think that’s pretty easy to forgive since he’s only raced three times since. He was highly touted as a two-year-old and a second place finish in the Manila made him the favorite in the G1 Secretariat. That didn’t pan out and he hasn’t been seen since, but Chad Brown should have him ready off the layoff, and if he returns strong as a four-year-old, he’ll be doing much more than a victory in an optional claimer.
2- Spirit Animal
Man, did Chad Brown luck out here. After completely dominating at $50,000, he was claimed by Rudy Rodriguez and it seemed like Brown had lost a budding star. He was even entered for Rudy in a race but was scratched, and some sort of clerical error may have been to blame when the claim was voided. I’m very annoyed, because Chad Brown has enough turf horses. Anyway, this is a big step up for this runner, but that last race was truly excellent and makes me think that he can handle himself at this level.
3- Dream Friend
At some point, this horse is going to win another race. However, it’s unlikely that I’m going to have money on him when he does. He seems to have a lot of trouble hanging on in the stretch, and has given it up in six straight starts. I think he’s a very talented horse, but I can’t trust him. The presence of Hidden Scroll may also hurt his chances on the front end.
6- King Cause
In his first race off the layoff, this gelding switched up his running style and closed, finishing second at 6-1 behind Ramsey Solution. Tom Amoss is a great trainer but based on his speed figures, I don’t think this horse can contend for the top spot. David Cohen doesn’t inspire much confidence either.
Order: 1 2 3 6
Fog of War and Spirit Animal have very different racing backgrounds, as one has been a touted runner for his entire life while the other has risen from obscurity. I think it comes down to these two, and I’ll be very keen to find out which is better at this point in their careers. Dream Friend is always a dangerous front runner, but he simply can’t be trusted out there after so many quitting performances. King Cause will have to improve, but he’s no slouch either for Tom Amoss.
Race 3
$40,000 Maiden Claiming for NY-Bred Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 1/16 Miles on the Mellon Turf
When the statebred maiden claimers are interesting, it really indicates the quality of the day. There are a couple very interesting runners in this one, and while this race doesn’t have ramifications on the larger racing scene, I’m not complaining for once. My top four:
9- Regal Speaker
He was clearly overmatched in an open company maiden special weight at Delaware, but I think he showed some bravery in defeat. Moving in between horses is difficult for inexperienced runners sometimes, and this gelding was forced to do so in the stretch but still ran on to take fourth. Visually, he appeared to be running hard but simply wasn’t fast enough. He’s fast enough in this race, and Arnaud Delacour recruits Javier Castellano to get the job done.
5- K.K. Ichikawa
I don’t mind this gelding’s first start at all. Sitting on the rail most of the way, Junior Alvarado moved him to the outside well enough, and he made up some ground to take third. This time around, Michelle Nevin will be giving him Lasix, a move that has worked in the past for her. Alvarado is leaving to ride for Bill Mott, but she’s actually had some success with Reylu Gutierrez recently, giving him his first Saratoga win on Skyler’s Scramjet last week. I really like this runner.
8- School Street
Brad Cox wins with 15% of his first time starters, and the rest of his statistics are a mixed bag because he’s probably not accustomed to training low level maiden claimers. He and Jose Ortiz work well together, and the colt has a few quick workouts and a 319 Tomlinson for the distance.
4- No Salt
After two races, I still don’t know what I’m getting with this runner, and now I’m worried. After a terrible dirt start last year, this colt made his 2020 debut at a mile on the turf. That’s probably the right move, but the race was a disaster after he hit the gate at the start and had to be vanned off the track. He’s taken a step down to the maiden claiming level without proving whether he could run or not, and if Bill Mott’s faith is shaken, then I have my concerns too. It is extremely important to note, however, that Junior Alvarado is returning to ride after a very hairy ride last time out.
Order: 9 5 8 4
Regal Speaker ran very well last time out against better horses, and I expect him to handle this field well for Arnaud Delacour. However, K.K. Ichikawa is a very dangerous runner for Michelle Nevin, as he ran well last time out without Lasix. In his second start, it’s nearly guaranteed that he’ll take a step forward. School Street is a sketchy firster for Brad Cox, while No Salt is way too volatile on paper for me to wager on.
Race 4
$72,000 Maiden Special Weight for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt
This is yet another fun race, as these horses seem pointed towards bigger things in the future. Many of them have performed well in defeat in the past, and one of them will move out of the condition here on to bigger things. My top four:
2- Searing Chase
This gelding made his first start last month at Keeneland, and it’s way better than it looks on paper. He made a very powerful move on the turn and was competing for the lead, but he was completely swallowed by a stampede of horses down the center of the track. He was clearly in the wrong spot that day, but the move he made was extremely impressive. Since then, Donald Chatlos has moved him to Saratoga, and he’s gotten a zippy five-furlong workout in. I think this $700,000 purchase is going to take a step forward here.
3- Dreams of Tomorrow
This is the established danger in the race, and he certainly deserves favoritism. That was a very good race last time out, though he had no chance of running down Life Changer, who was very stubborn on the front end that day. Shug McGaughey retains Jose Ortiz and adds blinkers, and I don’t see any reason that he won’t fire this time around.
5- Ima Pharoah
Well, the distance and surface don’t matter with this colt. In four starts, he’s finished second four times for Todd Pletcher, which must be very frustrating for the trainer. At this point, he’s burned a lot of money, and while he’s certainly competitive in this race, I’m not putting anything on him until he can show me something.
7- Point Driven
Is this colt really as bad as 20-1? Monmouth is a little cheap at times, but he was the only horse closing in a race where the pace held up very well. Michael Trombetta brought some live horses at the beginning of this meet, and while I understand why he’s at long odds here, I think he’s being a little undervalued.
Order: 2 3 5 7
I really like Searing Chase in this race, as I believe his last start was very impressive despite being hindered by the pace setup. He’ll take a step forward here for Donald Charles, because a move like the one he displayed last time out cannot be ignored. Dreams of Tomorrow is supremely qualified to win here, as he has not run a step out of place in two starts. Ima Pharoah, on the other hand, has become a notorious money burner at several different distances and surfaces, and I’m fading him here even though he has a chance. Point Driven is a step below, but his 20-1 odds are supposed to indicate that he’s much worse than he actually is.
Race 5 (FULL ANALYSIS)
Personal Ensign Stakes (G1) for Four-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 1/8 Miles on the Dirt
1- Abounding Joy
This mare easily handled a softer field in the Iowa Distaff last time out in one of her better career performances. On her best day, she is not beating Midnight Bisou.
2- Motion Emotion
Well, she was crushed by Midnight Bisou in her last start, but she did finish ahead of G1 Kentucky Oaks winner Serengeti Empress that day. I actually respect this filly as one that hangs around in spots when she’s not supposed to, and she’s not supposed to stick around here.
3- Midnight Bisou
She’s the best horse in the country right now. In two starts this year, the only horse to defeat her was Jason Servis’ Maximum Security, and in her return to the US after the Saudi Cup, she made a joke out of the G2 Fleur De Lis, winning by eight lengths in a hand ride. She’s not racing against scrubs here, but she’ll be extremely tough to beat.
4- Vexatious
She wasn’t good enough to defeat Monomoy Girl last time out, but the 100 BSF she earned that day makes her competitive with a superhorse. That being said, she’s had several good stretches during her career but always takes a step back. It’s unclear if this is the start of a new era for this runner or if she just showed up that day, but regardless, I think she’ll be fighting for second here.
5- Bossy Bride
This filly has no place in this race.
6- Point of Honor
While Vexatious is a streaky contender, this filly has been incredibly consistent for her entire career. She hasn’t quite broken through at the G1 level, but she was never closer than last time out in the G1 Ogden Phipps. She ran very well that day but was nipped at the wire by She’s a Julie. She’s dependable for a strong finish here, but like the rest of the field, she’s outclassed.
Order: 3 4 6 2
Midnight Bisou is a nightmare for any female horse in the country, and a vast majority of the boys too. I don’t see her losing this one on the way to November. Vexatious and Point of Honor are both very professional runners that should give reputable performances behind her. Motion Emotion isn’t a complete joke, and might sneak into the top three at a price.
Race 6
$74,000 Allowance for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt
7- Everfast
This colt had the Blame Stakes won back in May, when Owendale closed from out of the clouds to nip him at the wire. Then, Jack Sisterson put him in an idiotic spot in the G1 Maker’s Mark Mile, a high quality turf stakes that he didn’t belong in. He’s back on the dirt here in a much softer spot, and I like his chances.
6- Stage Left
This gelding was much the best in a claiming race at Belmont odd the layoff, clearing the field at keeping fellow runner Vintage Hollywood at bay to win by two lengths. It was a very solid performance and a good stepping stone for this Wesley Ward trainee, and I think he may even manage a step forward in what will effectively be his second race of the season.
2- Mister Winston
He seemed to have wrapped up an optional claiming competition last time out but was caught by Creed, who came with a drive down the center of the track. Even still, it was a very reasonable performance from a horse coming off a layoff. Chad Brown knows how to prepare his horses, and it’s very reasonable to suspect that he can fire again in this race, even if it’s a bit more competitive and includes older horses.
3- Mister Bobby
In the slop at Churchill last time out, this colt romped on the front end to win a claiming event by 10 lengths. It was an impressive performance, but I’m not entirely sure that he’ll manage such a great trip again this time around. In fact, I’d be willing to bet against it.
Order: 7 6 2 3
Everfast should not have been on the turf last time out, but his dirt start before that would win this race by open lengths. He’s almost always an underdog, but this is a relatively soft spot for him. That doesn’t mean that his competition is incompetent though, because I happen to like Stage Left as a challenger to the favorite based on his last start. The two Misters, Winston and Bobby, are contenders here as well, as one is coming off a professional start while the other romped at a lower level and is stepping up.
Race 7
$72,000 Maiden Special Weight for Two-Year-Olds, 1 1/16 Miles on the Inner Turf
This is a race with some very interesting young turfers, and I think several of them may make some noise at higher levels in the near future. My top four:
7- King of Miami
In his first start, this runner was highly touted, even by Wesley Ward’s standards. He entered this runner hopefully in June, but then the race was rained off. He still ran fairly but settled for second behind an upset winner in the slop. Ward reportedly called Ortiz and told his jockey to take care of the horse, and I mean, that sounds like something. This colt is obviously being pointed towards the turf, and bettors may catch on to the fact that he was considered a lock to win last time out.
8- Modern Science (Ire)
I’m going to go out on a limb and say that this colt had one of the worst debut trips I’ve ever seen. Breaking out of the far outside post, he was caught absurdly wide, about as far wide as possible, entering the first turn and had to stop running completely to get in. He was sixteen lengths behind the leader and five lengths behind the closest runner after a quarter mile. He made up some ground, and then got caught in between a crowd of horses in the stretch, eventually found a very tight lane, and busted through to take third. The BSF is terrible because he was running against Ellis Park horses, but with a reasonable trip, I think he would’ve won that race by eight lengths. He’s the only one in this race with turf route experience as well, which is valuable as well. Ian Wilkes has brought nothing but live horses to Saratoga, and I think this one may have learned a thing or two last time out.
10- Habitus
This colt walked out of the gate in his first start at Keeneland but closed well to finish fourth. Graham Motion has been chilly at Saratoga recently, but he works very well with Luis Saez, and it’s likely that his colt here will take a step forward in his second start.
5- Sol Del Sur
Bill Mott doesn’t win often with first time starters, when they win, it’s usually in spots like this one. This one, however, has been slow in the morning, and while it’s nice to see Junior Alvarado and 379 Tomlinson, I feel generally secure looking elsewhere.
Order: 7 8 10 5
King of Miami will get a distance test, but I feel like Wesley Ward is handling him with care, which makes me hopeful that he can handle it. Modern Science is going out for Ian Wilkes, who has done no wrong at Saratoga thus far. Habitus, meanwhile, could get Graham Motion back into the winner’s circle after a rough stretch to start the meet. Bill Mott is always sneaky with his firsters, and it’s impossible to know how good Sol Del Sur will be on first asking.
Race 8
$72,000 Maiden Special Weight for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 3/8 Miles on the Inner Turf
This race is nuts. I don’t know if it’s the distance or an eclectic gathering of trainers, but the runners in this field have my head spinning. There’s so much going on, and it makes me think I’m going to miss something. My top four:
7- Amano
In his first race off the layoff, this colt ran well closing down the center to finish third behind Shamrocket and fellow runner Bail Out. It’s not every day that Luis Miranda beats Chad Brown, but I don’t see it happening twice. He was 15 lengths behind that day, and while there’s no guarantee that he won’t do that again, I think he’ll be a little sharper this time around. He’s also proven he can handle the distance which is key.
8- Reigning Spirit
This colt seems a step slow coming out of maiden races at Churchill, but he’s run very well down there. Cavalry Charge improved to beat him last time out, but he ran his race all the same. With late closers, Joel Rosario sometimes waits too long to hit the button, but I don’t think an extra furlong should be a huge deal. The key here, though, is Albert Stall, who’s been bringing extremely live horses to Saratoga this meet.
5- Mystery Bank
Saffie Joseph handled this colt like a madman, running him at all sorts of levels and even against winners, and now Orlando Noda is continuing the tradition of strange spots for this runner. This is a new distance for this horse, and he’s actually handled stranger changes well in the past. Noda’s been on his game at Saratoga recently and won at Saratoga with Jose Ortiz on a $26 horse. This is a very weird runner, and I kind of like him.
3- Bail Out
Alright, if Luis Miranda is ever going to win a race, it’s with this heartbreaking horse. He runs well all the time, but in 15 starts, he still hasn’t broken his maiden. He definitely prefers this distance and seemed to like Luis Cardenas when he rode him two starts back. There’s no reason to suspect he’ll improve or break through, but I can’t toss him as a contender either.
Order: 7 8 5 3
In a crazy race, I’m going to lean on Chad Brown and Amano, as I feel that he can handle the distance and will be ready in his second start off the layoff. Reigning Spirit is another colt running for a hot trainer, and I’m not betting against Ian Wilkes at this point at Saratoga. Mystery Bank is one of several weird horses here, and I’m too intrigued to toss him. If Bail Out ever figures out how to win, Luis Miranda will have a very successful horse on his hands. He hasn’t figured it out yet though.
Race 9 (FULL ANALYSIS)
Whitney Stakes (G1) for Four-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt
This is the best race I’ve had the privilege of handicapping thus far, and I can’t wait to see it play out on the track. I’ll be taking a look at all five runners in post position orde, starting with:
1- By My Standards
This horse has really stepped up his game since losing as an outsider in the Kentucky Derby. Two starts back, he won an impossibly tough Oaklawn Handicap, which put him in the upper tier of runners in the country. However, in his last start, he was clearly a step below Tom’s d’Etat, who handled him with ease. He loves this distance and is currently one of the best horses around, but he’ll need the favorite to take a step back in order to have a chance at the top spot.
2- Improbable
My Kentucky Derby pick last year hasn’t done too badly for himself since the Triple Crown. He was meandering for a while at the tail end of his three-year-old season, but has come back strong at four. He very nearly knocked off Tom’s d’Etat on one of his off days as both were coming off the layoff. In his second start of the year, he gave a career-best performance in the G1 Gold Cup back home at Santa Anita. The 105 BSF makes him competitive here, but he’ll now have to deal with Tom’s d’Etat making his third start of the year. I don’t think he’s impossible.
3- Code of Honor
This colt was immense in defeat last time out. That track didn’t favor him in any sense of the word, and while Vekoma won in a wire-to-wire victory, he fanned wide and was the only horse closing at the end. It was an extremely respectable performance, and I think he’s a serious contender here. Closers haven’t had too much success recently at Saratoga, though they have had better chances as of yesterday. There should be a hot pace up front, and with the right trip, he might just be good enough to tackle the figurative giant.
4- Mr. Buff
This horse should really be running in statebred stakes races, but if the connections were ever going to take a chance in open company, this is the time in his life to do it. At an unreasonable distance in the G2 Suburban, he never managed to get the lead and faded badly at the end to finish fifth. Today, he’s back at a familiar distance, one that he’s 9-for-13 running. His game plan is clear, as he’ll likely establish a clear lead up front and go for as long as he can. He’s never lasted in graded stakes competition in the past, and he’ll have the best male dirt horse in the country right behind him the whole way, but at a price, I don’t mind the game plan or the manner in which he’s been prepared for this race by John Kimmel. He’ll have to fly.
5- Tom’s d’Etat
Here’s the danger. Since losing as the favorite in the G1 Woodward last year, this horse has been unbelievable, winning four straight races against some very good competition. His last start was a career-best performance, a 109 BSF victory in the G2 Stephen Foster, four lengths ahead of fellow runner By My Standards. He’s an incredibly versatile runner that will likely stalk here, and he’s the favorite for a reason. It may be unwise, but I’m going to take a chance against him. If he wins, he’ll likely be voted the best horse in the country, regardless of Midnight Bisou’s performance in the G1 Personal Ensign.
Order: 3 5 2 1
This is the most talented five-horse field I’ve ever had to rank, and it’s a task that’s extremely difficult, because they’ll all run well. Tom’s d’Etat is a brilliant horse that’s been perfect recently, and someone will need to have an absolutely perfect day to beat him. I think Code of Honor is up to the task. He ran his heart out in defeat last time out, and I think he’s in much better condition than he’s showing on paper. I think he’s going to show up with the best performance of his career here, and it might just be enough. Improbable and By My Standards are both excellent runners that have proven that they weren’t good enough to defeat the favorite in the past, but they’re too good to lose too often. Meanwhile, Mr. Buff will try to wire them, and honestly, crazier things have happened. This is an amazing race.
Race 10
H. Allen Jerkens Stakes (G1) for Three-Year-Olds, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt
Don’t change the channel after the Whitney, because there’s still plenty of great racing left on this card. This race is excellent as well, and the field is very large and will provide value to bettors. Because it’s such an important race, I’ll be taking a look at all five runners in post position orde, starting with:
1- Hopeful Treasure
He was two lengths slower than Liam’s Pride last time out, though he may have had a tougher trip that day. Regardless, he’s not good enough here.
2- Eight Rings
Can this colt regain his two-year-old form. He was very impressive when taking the G1 American Pharoah last year, he disappointed in the BC Juvenile and then returned as a three-year-old with a disappointing performance behind fellow runner Echo Town. Bob Baffert’s confidence is interesting, as he wouldn’t enter him in a G1 if he didn’t have some reason to believe he could do it. There’s very little to suggest that on paper, so if I’m betting on improvement, I think there’s good reason to suspect it. He’s still a little tough to stomach for some reason though.
3- Sonneman
I’m not holding his last start against him, as he got stuck in a match race against an early speed horse. That’s not his problem here. The problem is that he’s slow.
4- Echo Town
In a very difficult race to handicap, this colt made it even more difficult when he didn’t go to the lead. That opened the door for fellow runner No Parole, who got away with an uncontested lead and wired the field with a very fast time. He’s been effective dueling in the past, but the connections probably feared a duel on the outside. This time around, he’ll get the rail, which makes me think that Ricardo Santana will be more willing to duel. If that’s the case, I think he’ll be dangerous.
5- Mischevious Alex
This colt hasn’t yet put up that really solid speed figure to prove he’s a great horse. However, he has had some great performances in the past. His race earlier this year in the G3 Gotham was very impressive as he fueled against several horses and held the closers at bay to win by two lengths. In his return race, he landed in a very tough spot and didn’t have much of a chance behind No Parole, the lone speed that day. This time around, there should be a hotter pace, and he should manage a good stalking trip. Today might be the day, and it’s nice to see Irad Ortiz think so as well.
6- No Parole
This colt was excellent last time out, improving significantly to win the G1 Woody Stephens against a very tough field. I said that that race would come down to the runner that got the best trip, and he certainly did. When fellow runner Echo Town didn’t go to the front, this colt was suddenly alone on the front end, controlling the pace and running away at the end. It was a solid performance, but I think it’s unlikely that he gets the same trip again in this larger field. At the very least, he may have to duel to the outside of Echo Town, which would give him a serious issue. I think he’s a talented horse, but he’s vulnerable here.
7- Shoplifted
I didn’t think this colt would handle the sprint distance last time out, but I was kind of wrong. He ran fairly well that day off the layoff, making up a little ground to finish third. He had no chance of catching No Parole, but it wasn’t a bad performance by any means. There’s been a slight shuffling of jockeys, and he’s lost Jose Ortiz in the process, but I still think he can give a good account of himself here.
8- Three Technique
He hasn’t run since March, when he was still on the Derby trail. Like many others, the connections have given up on that pursuit and are entering him at a sprint distance in his return. He handled seven furlongs very well earlier in his career, in January, he defeated fellow runner Shoplifted at a mile. This is a pretty tough spot to return off a layoff, and I’d definitely like to see him run. However, he does love Saratoga, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he ran well here for Jeremiah Englehart.
9- Liam’s Pride
He won an ungraded stakes at 13-1, and he’s 20-1 on the morning line here. I’d look for others.
10- Captain Bombastic
I don’t mind when NY-breds take a chance in big open company races, but that doesn’t mean I bet on them either. He ran fairly well in the Mike Lee last time out and competed against some low-tier Derby contenders at Oaklawn earlier in the year. I still think he’s a step below here, and the post isn’t doing him any favors.
11- Tap It to Win
The second choice in the Belmont Stakes is the third choice in the H, Allen Jerkens. The race two back, in which he was lone speed, made him a contender at an unfamiliar distance, but in reality, he’s probably more effective going shorter. He’s early speed when routing, but at sprint distances, he’s definitely more of a stalker, and could win with a trip like the one he ran back in May at Gulfstream. He’s been promising for a long time and has only recently broken through, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he runs well here. I am a little lukewarm though, as he’s essentially a one-race horse on paper right now. The outside post doesn’t help.
Order: 5 4 8 2
I think that Mischevious Alex’s first start off the layoff was good in the face of some adversity, and in his second start, he’ll get a better setup and should improve. Echo Town will duel if Ricardo Santana is trying to win with him, and I think he’ll have an advantage down on the rail. Three Technique is coming off a layoff and shortening to a sprint distance, and I think Jeremiah Englehart has a plan with a runner that may be a tad undervalued. Eight Rings is a weird runner that’s seen better days, but Bob Baffert doesn’t mess around when he brings horses to Saratoga. I think he’s sitting on a big race.
Race 11
Bowling Green Stakes (G2) for Four-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 ⅜ Miles on the Inner Turf
This is an excellent race that may be a little overshadowed because of the races it will be following. However, some of the best turf horses around will be facing off, making it yet another great race to watch. My top four:
2- Cross Border
Michael Maker has been hot at Saratoga recently, and this would really be the cherry on top of that streak. Two starts back, this horse ran admirably on the front end but was caught by fellow runners Sadlers Joy and Channel Maker, among others, to finish fifth. Still, he held well among a stampede, losing by only a length. He then entered a statebred race in his first race at the Saratoga meet, and he made a mockery of that field as he was supposed to. Now he’s against his old foes again, and this is a small field where he’ll likely get a clear lead. He’s four-for-four at Saratoga, has a victory at this distance, and Jose Ortiz returns to ride. I like him quite a bit here.
6- Sadler’s Joy
I love this horse in every race he’s in, because I have a childlike adoration for dead closers. This horse has been flying from the back, and while he always seems to come up short, he’s a ton of fun to watch. He has a solid chance in here, as he always does, and while I have him second, he won’t be left out of any of my bets.
3- Highland Sky
Here’s my thing with this horse. He ran just as well as Sadler’s Joy in his last start, and yet he’s 15-1 on the morning line. Because he’s trained by Barclay Tagg, he’s often overlooked, but there are a ton of instances in his career where he’s outrun his odds at the highest levels of turf racing. I think this is another instance where he can surprise some people at a price.
5- Channel Maker
This gelding always tries, and his last race was another return to form for a horse that always seems just about done. He keeps going though, and while I don’t love him on top, I think he’s back in condition and can give a good account of himself. It’s nice to see him back in contention.
Order: 2 6 3 5
Cross Border couldn’t hold on in the G1 Manhattan two starts back, but I think he has a better chance at Saratoga, a track on which he’s undefeated. I love Sadler’s Joy, and while I’ve been a fan forever, he’ll win the stampede but may not get around the leader. If we’re picking long shots underneath, then I think Highland Sky is very interesting, as he’s run well with these in the past at lower levels. Channel Maker always tries and could very easily fight for a minor prize.
Race 12
Caress Stakes (Ungraded) for Fillies and Mares Four Years Old and Upward, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf
This isn’t a typical closing race on a Saratoga card, but I’m definitely not complaining. There are some excellent runners in here, with several contenders looking to use this as a stepping stone to the next level. My top four:
7- Dalika (Ger)
This filly was gobbling up ground in her last start but came up short to fellow runner I’llhandalthecash, who got a much better trip that day. If any spectator had to pick the better runner in that race, this filly would be the clear top choice. Albert Stall is very hot at Saratoga, and this filly has been great sprinting recently.
9- Cariba
Coming off the layoff, this filly ran very well to defeat a weaker allowance field in her shortest turf start yet. Christophe Clement has been doing great at Saratoga and seems to have this runner well placed while stepping up in class. She always runs hard regardless of who she’s up against, and I think she’ll make a good showing here.
2- I’llhandalthecash
She defeated fellow runner Dalika in their last start against one another, and while she got a much better trip that day, there’s no reason she can’t get a similar trip here. That start was a vast improvement over her previous form, and she proved stubborn that day and proved that she fits at this level. I’ll be going with others, but I won’t be surprised.
5- Jakarta
This mare was an average dirt sprinter at Penn National for a long time, but has found new life as a turf sprinter recently. Her last two starts were in G3 races in which she had no chance, but she wired an optional claiming race at Gulfstream back in March to get her first turf victory. I’m not necessarily saying she’ll win here, but Michael Maker is hot and she’ll be setting the pace at the very least.
Order: 7 9 2 5
Dalika ran too well to lose last time out, and with a better trip, I think she’ll manage to get the job done here. Cariba is a very honest runner that always tries, and her last start off the layoff was an encouraging one. She can certainly compete here. I’llhandalthecash won last time against my top selection, but I believe that she received an optimal trip that day and will be outrun if her opponents improve. Jakarta will try to wire them, and Michael Maker has been pretty fortunate lately.