Saratoga Analysis: Sunday, July 19, 2020

This is a quiet day at Saratoga, but even light days offer very solid races up here. There’s some money to be made here, but it will prove very difficult on a very tricky card.

Note: First nine are up, last one is coming.

Race 1

$40,000 Allowance Optional Claiming for NY-Bred Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf

This is a very deep statebred optional claiming race, with several tough older horses trying to break this difficult condition. The Moquins will have a rooting interest here, as Power Up Paynter takes another step up into even deeper waters than the ones he found himself in last time. He fits well, but this will be a stiff test, as can be seen in my top four:

1- Dowse’s Beach
1A- New York’s Finest (SCRATCHED)

Each half of this entry deserves consideration, and together, they simply represent two solid contenders paying off the same win bet and racing strategy. Dowse’s Beach loves the Saratoga turf and distance, and while his first race off the layoff was a step back from his form last year, there are few better spots for him to enter in his second start of the year. Meanwhile, New York’s Finest is already in excellent condition and is entering Rudy Rodriguez’s barn, a major trainer upgrade. This entry will be tough, and I doubt they run one another out of the race early.

3- Dr. Shane

This gelding has been running in very classy open company races for a long time, but was beginning to regress earlier in the year. This will be his first start off the layoff and Danny Gargan puts him back in statebred competition, and I don’t think he’s done just yet. He’ll be very competitive here, though it’s somewhat concerning that he hasn’t won at Saratoga or this distance.

2- Power Up Paynter

Well, that last start caused quite a stir in the Moquin household. This Myracehorse entry won his last start at 15-1, closing into a very fast pace on Belmont Stakes Day. He may get a similar pace this time around, but a handicapper has to wonder how quickly he’s being propelled through these allowance levels. He’s the only three-year-old in this race, and at some point, he’s going to hit a wall. However, he’s competitive here based on his last start and could very well be there are the end. 

7- Banana Thief

I picked this horse on top in a race similar to this one at Belmont before it was rained off the turf. I think he could have used that prep, because he’ll have to fire fresh to take down some very tough runners here. He fits here based on his very consistent form last year, but I think I’d like to see him take a race before he tackles such a steep competition in earnest.

Order: 1/1A 3 2 7 (Note: The 1A, New York’s Finest, is scratched.)

Dowse’s Beach really seems to like Saratoga and should improve. New York’s Finest is solid as well, and one of them will likely have the opportunity to wire the field. Dr. Shane is always dangerous and joins statebred company in this start. Power Up Paynter is a three-year-old moving quickly through the statebred ranks and might just be good enough. Banana Thief is always competitive, but I’d like to see him get a start.

Race 2

$12,500 Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Six and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt

This race is a little frustrating, because most of the contenders seem to have an issue winning. Sometimes, that could mean that a bomb is incoming, but I couldn’t locate one and had to try to differentiate between the main contenders. My top four:

5- Deep Sea

I really want to prefer Hardcore Folklore in this race, but Deep Sea demonstrates that he was better in their last start. In that race, HF got a clear head start as they moved into the stretch. Deep Sea was stuck in traffic, but when he got clear, he ran down his competitor to take second. He hasn’t won since 2018, but he appeared to be deteriorating under the services of John Toscano. Since moving into Rudy Rodriguez’s barn, he’s begin to recover some of his old form, and he’s a much more tolerable win bet now than he used to be.

7- Hardcore Folklore

Deep Sea may have been better last time out, but this gelding ran well in his last start as well. In two starts off the layoff, he’s continued to improve and now enters Saratoga, a track he’s appreciated in the past. Like many other horses in this race, he hasn’t won in awhile, but the fact that his last win came at Saratoga is somewhat encouraging. I don’t mind him at all here.

4- Vineyard Sound

If not for the connections, this runner would be my top choice. Unlike every other contender, he wins when he’s suppose to and often outruns his odds in underdog positions. However, Edmund Davis and Eric Cancel are a brutal trainer/jockey combination, especially at Saratoga. I think he’ll have a say, but I really can’t support him for first.

2- Lazarus Project

This gelding always runs well, but he has immense trouble reaching the winner’s circle. His speed figures are competitive and he’s had reasonable success at the distance, but he’s been in this position before.

Order: 5 7 4 2

I believe that Deep Sea and Hardcore Folklore are coming out of the best prep for this race, and think they’re both going to compete well here in a rematch. Vineyard Sound is a solid horse with abysmal connections that are preventing me from endorsing him fully. Lazarus Project has been around forever, and I’ve grown accustomed to including him underneath.

 

Race 3

$72,000 Maiden Special Weight for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, 1 Mile on the Inner Turf

This maiden race features some promising runners that could take the next step forward at some point this summer. I think there’s an overbet favorite that I’ll take a small chance against:

4- In Front

She performed very well in a live maiden race last time out, even though that distance was new to her. In fact, she’s competed against very stout maidens for most of her career. Shug McGaughey cuts her back in distance here, and based on her last race, I think she can take another step forward.

1- Dovima

Never underestimate Chad Brown as bettors did with this filly in her first start. At 9-1, she nearly won on first asking after getting a very nice trip under Jose Ortiz. It was an optimal trip that maximized her speed figure, but I don’t see any reason why she can’t get the same trip again. She should be around at the end. She probably shouldn’t be 6-5 though.

3- Halo City

Dovima shouldn’t be 6-5, and this runner shouldn’t be 8-1. In her last start, she closed quickly in the stretch but fell a length short, finishing fourth behind fellow runner Dovima. That was her first turf attempt and her first race off the layoff, which indicates that she can improve. However, my only knock on her is that she appears to be a deep closer that won’t have much pace to run into here. She’ll have to get closer if she wants to win, though I certainly wouldn’t count out that scenario with Kendrick Carmouche aboard.

5- Johnnie Merle (Ire) (SCRATCHED)

Back in February, this filly ran strangely in her turf debut, starting slowly and making up a little ground late. She hasn’t raced since February, which could mean that she’s progressed during the layoff. Brian House is a complete unknown, and while he couldn’t recruit a better jockey than Eric Cancel, his ambition is encouraging for this long shot.

Order: 4 1 3 5 (The 5, Johnnie Merle, is scratched.)

Dovima is receiving attention because she trains for Chad Brown, and while she could very well win, I believe In Front is more seasoned and prepared to win a race like this one. Halo City is undervalued but may be hurt by the lack of pace up front, while Johnnie Merle is more of a shot in the dark.

 

Race 4

$50,000 Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, Six Furlongs on the Dirt

This race is fair, but is another one that features a few too many quitters to reliably handicap. I took a shot with a horse that competes consistently, and I’ll hope he does enough to beat some horses that are stubborn in the wrong way:

5- Releasethethunder

This horse took the winter and spring off, but returned to the track last month at a similar level to where he was last year, finishing third in an optional claiming event at Delaware. Joel Rosario rides for Christophe Clement here, which is an encouraging sign that this is a serious attempt to win. While he’s competitive with other runners, I think he’s been prepared better and should improve in his second start of the year.

6- Twelfth Labor

Robertino Diodoro works better with David Cohen than Irad Ortiz. He’s also excellent off the claim and made a great purchase with this runner. Cohen and the claim statistic make this an attractive option, but I have a few concerns. He doesn’t love the turf or this distance, and I think that may hurt his chances.

3- Candy Cornell (SCRATCHED)

Diodoro’s other runner here is very frustrating, as he always seems to run well but often finished second. He could get an uncontested lead if he wants it, and Irad Ortiz knows how to handle a horse on the lead, but he’s just a little too inconsistent to endorse for the top spot.

4- Queen’s Mason

In terms of speed, this gelding’s recent BSF makes him competitive in this race. However, in terms of class, he’s very cheap compared to his competition, and his last win came off a very favorable trip. He’s an outsider here.

Order: 5 6 3 4 (Note: The 3, Candy Cornell, is scratched.)

Releasethethunder runs when he’s supposed to and is being prepared well by Christophe Clement. Twelfth Labor and Candy Cornell are both contenders for Ribertino Diodoro, but neither one seems to be in a favorable position despite their ability.

 

Race 5

$62,000 Maiden Special Weight for NY-Bred Two-Year-Olds, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf

My Spidey Senses are tingling with this one, which basically means that I have a bunch of largely unprovable guesses about the runners here. It’s a two-year-old race, so it’s a good race to take some guesses on. My top four:

2- Martinez

I get the impression that Shug McGaughey has something going on here. He seldom goes to Jose Ortiz for mounts at Saratoga, but it usually indicates he has a live horse. He’s actually profitable with firsters, and this one’s been training well and has a 375 Tomlinson for the distance.

8- Competitive Hero

Brad Cox is excellent at switching surfaces and maidens making their second start, and I don’t think this colt’s first start is indicative of his ability on turf. It’s interesting to see Jose Ortiz leave for fellow runner Martinez, but Javier Castellano is a fine replacement.

1A- Mischievous Dream

Christophe Clement and Tyler Gaffalione is an interesting combo, but Clement is excellent with firsters and the colt has a 404 Tomlinson for the distance. I don’t like the light workout tab though.

3- Wicked Easy

This is Clement’s other colt, and he gets a more familiar Clement jockey, Joel Rosario. That being said, I get a weird feeling that this colt is being pointed towards a dirt start. I’m having a lot of weird premonitions in this race, and they feel like shots in the dark, but the pedestrian Tomlinson and workout tab help me build a case.

Order: 2 8 1A 3

I really like McGaughey’s colt in this race, but I don’t think he’s alone here. Competitive Hero could very well handle the turf better and improve for Brad Cox, while Mischievous Dream and Wicked Easy are both very dangerous in their debuts for Christophe Clement. In other words, pick a name you like.

 

Race 6

$50,000 Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 1/16 Miles on the Inner Turf

This is a very competitive race, one that I believe can be won by any of my top four selections. It’s a very tricky race, particularly for pick bettors, but I make my best attempt below:

7- Sentry

Joel Rosario began the Saratoga meet poorly, but has won five races in the past two days. This horse has been a consistent presence in the New York turf allowance scene for a very long time now, and makes his six-year-old debut for Shug McGaughey here. He’s fired fresh off layoffs in the past, and if he picks up on his form from last year, he will handle this field well.

1- Space Mountain

Earlier this year, this gelding had a few tough starts that have muddled his form badly. As a result, he’ll be a price here, but he hasn’t been at a level nearly as low as this one in a very long time. The last time he was in a claiming race was May 2019, and he won, if that counts for anything. He’s been consistently overmatched since then and he’s coming off a layoff here, but time off may have been exactly what he needed. Jose Ortiz signs on to ride for Michael Maker, which is always an encouraging connection.

5- Financial System

This horse has been incredibly consistent for Chad Brown, but that consistency hasn’t often translated to victories. He’s been favored in nearly every single race he’s ever run in, but he’s only won twice over the course of his career. He won his last race alone on the lead in a speed-friendly race, but he is taking a slight drop here. Chad Brown is hard to mess around with, but I will try to beat him here.

9- Kroy

This gelding is weird. He seems to run better on turf, but his last two victories have come on the dirt. He last won on the turf in August 2018. I’d like to think of that as a coincidence, but there are too many losing turf starts to ignore. He takes a drop in class here for Danny Gargan, who works very well with Manny Franco. His speed figures are also superior, and in a wide open race, I’m not putting it past my fourth selection to exceed my expectations.

Order: 7 1 5 9

Sentry has a slight edge over these other runners, but he’ll need to fire fresh off a layoff, something he’s done before and can easily do again. Space Mountain is a long shot that I have a soft spot for, as I believe he’s getting class relief and time off that will allow him to deliver a more characteristic performance. Financial System is a Chad Brown turf runner, but he’s underachieved a little at a level that Brown usually excels at. He could very well win here, but he won’t go off at an appropriate price. Kroy is a talented turf runner that hasn’t won on the surface in a long time, but he does appear to be just as fast as his opponents here, if not faster.

 

Race 7

$72,000 Maiden Special Weight for Two-Year-Old Fillies, Five and a Half Furlongs on Dirt

1- Iaintfraidanoghost

Jeremiah Englehart is stunning with two-year-olds and first time starters, and he recruits Jose Ortiz to ride. This filly has a 423 Tomlinson for the distance and and a reasonable workout tab.

9- Lucifers Lair

Todd Pletcher said that he’d like to point this horse towards longer distances at some point, but that doesn’t mean he can’t win here. Pletcher is very good with first time starters and works sparingly, but effectively, with Irad Ortiz. She’s a promising runner who can win on first asking.

8- Dressy

Barclay Tagg has a first time starter here at Saratoga, and Junior Alvarado is riding. This exact scenario occurred three times at Saratoga last year. Adriatic Holiday finished fourth at 5-2 in her first start and still hasn’t broken her maiden yet. Highland Glory finished second at 4-1 and is now placed in graded stakes competition. The third Tagg/Alvarado first time starter was Tiz the Law, who won his first start at 7-2. I guess he’s been fine since then. I’m not saying that this filly will win on first asking, although I’m not counting it out either. I’m merely saying that this is a more successful connection than some bettors may give it credit for. The filly has been training pretty well too.

4- Caldee

For all of Brad Cox’s successful angles, he’s not the most profitable with first time starters. Regardless, he recruits Javier Castellano to ride here, and the horse has a 371 Tomlinson and a good workout tab entering her first start.

Order: 1 9 8 4

Iaintfraidanoghost is a Jeremiah Englehart trainee, and he’s a specialist with two-year-olds. Todd Pletcher is more generally talented, which gives Lucifers Lair a great opportunity here as well. I’m more interested in Dressy than any other horse in the race, but the horse I’m most interested in isn’t always the winner. He will provide a little value though. I’m including Caldee because I don’t want to toss Brad Cox.

 

Race 8

$64,000 Allowance for NY-Bred Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf

The top two runners in this race faced off last time, and beyond that, the rest of these competitors seem to be a step below. My top four:

5- Light in the Sky

Maybe it was the blinkers or Horatio DePaz, but this filly ran very well last time, outfininshing fellow runner My Sassy Sarah and just missing for the victory. This is her second start off the layoff and Jose Ortiz sticks around, and while she may not necessarily improve, she will be tough in the stretch once again. It’s also important to note that her best performance as a two-year-old came at Saratoga, and the toughest competition she’s facing in this race is a filly she beat last time out. She’ll need a pace to run at, but it appears that she’ll get one.

4- My Sassy Sarah

With no excuse to speak of, this filly was outrun by fellow runner Light in the Sky last time out. Well, maybe there’s an excuse, unrelated to the trip she got. Michelle Nevin isn’t effective coming off long layoffs, but she’s much more successful the second time out. As a result, there’s a compelling case that she’ll improve here, though I’m still supporting her main competitor for the top spot.

2- Saratoga Love

In her second start off the layoff for Christophe Clement, this filly improved dramatically to break her maiden in a statebred claiming race. However, that win came with an uncontested lead on a weekend that was pretty supportive of front running types, and she’ll have much stiffer competition this time around.

3- Winifred J

This filly represents the early speed in the race, and she may find a more forgiving surface at Saratoga than she did in her last abysmal start at Belmont. She may not be alone up there though, which could hurt her chances, but she’ll probably run better this time around. Javier Castellano stays to ride.

Order: 5 4 2 3

I’m giving Light in the Sky an edge over My Sassy Sarah in this rematch, but I won’t be surprised if the latter can turn the tables on the former. Saratoga Love will be overbet, and I don’t like her chances in her first start against winners. Winifred J should improve, but still may serve as little more than an early speed factor.

 

Race 9

Lake Placid Stakes (G2) for Three-Year-Old Fillies, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Inner Turf

Graded stakes for three-year-old turf fillies are weaker than your standard graded stakes, but this race is more entertaining because of an evenly matched field. Nearly every runner can with this one, which makes my job difficult. My top four:

8- Cat’s Pajamas

This filly capitalized on a very soft pace last time out to win an allowance ahead of fellow runner Lashara. I think he’s just as good as Lashara, who I very hesitantly tossed, but I have this filly on top because of the total lack of pace in this race as well. There may be an odd runner that tries to take the lead here, but this runner will likely sit just off of whatever pace presents itself and she’ll run better than her experience may suggest. Graham Motion rarely enters his horses in inappropriate spots, and it’s great to see John Velasquez return. I like her chances.

1- Speaktomeofsummer

She didn’t have much of an excuse last time out when she ran fourth in the G3 Wonder Again last time out. However, Clement’s decision to continue to enter her in graded stakes competition is a good song that she may have just needed a race. Removing blinkers from a horse is a rare but highly successful move for Clement, and Joel Rosario chose to ride this one over others in the race. I think she’ll take a step forward here.

6– Stunning Sky

This filly has been running in stakes races for a while now, but her last race was a marked improvement over her previous starts based on the 88 BSF. She’s clearly talented and Irad Ortiz is a good pickup, but I’m concerned that she doesn’t possess the pace necessary to win this very slow race. She’s a deserving contender, but she’ll simply have nothing to close into.

2- Blame Debbie

I’m interested in this filly because of the competition she faced last time out. Civil Union improved dramatically to take an ungraded stakes in her next start, and she ran with that horse through the entire stretch run. She has back class, having run in graded stakes competitions earlier this year, and apparently Graham Motion thinks she can handle that level again. She seems to have a little tactical speed that will help her here, but Jose Ortiz is replacing Joel Rosario who chose to ride fellow runner Speaktomeofsummer.

Order: 8 1 6 2

I think Cat’s Pajamas will benefit from the pace scenario in this race, and I’ve been enjoying Graham Motion’s runners as of late. I believe that Speaktomeofsummer will improve in her second start for Christophe Clement, and I’m encouraged by Rosario’s choice to stay. Stunning Sky deserves the attention she’ll likely receive, but she really needs a pace to run at to run her best race. Blame Debbie is an interesting long shot that’s competed with some good horses recently.

 

Race 10

$16,000 Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt

This is a pretty difficult way to close out the day, as there are runners coming from all over the place for this one. My top four:

7- Malibu Pro

Listen, I’m not crazy about taking a Canterbury shipper either, but I think he’s been facing real competition abroad. Diodoro and Cohen are very successful together, and this gelding has tactical speed that can help him here. He hasn’t won in awhile, but I actually think there’s a chance he’s getting some class relief here. I think he’ll make a good showing here.

2- Control Group

This horse almost never enters open company, but he’s never entered at such a low level either. His last two races before the layoff were excellent, and the first race back was on the turf and wasn’t a serious attempt by Rudy Rodriguez to win. This is the attempt, and he recruits Irad Ortiz to ride. If not for Ortiz, this would feel like bait by Rodriguez, because he could easily put a higher price tag on him in statebred races. However, the fact that he keeps finding top jockeys to ride might suggest that he’s ready to go. 

8- Mills

This 10-year-old has woken up lately, winning three of his last four starts at lower claiming levels. He takes a small step up in class here, and while I don’t love Eric Cancel and Eddie Barker at Saratoga, his last race was very professional and he may be able to build on it.

4- Scarf It Down

This gelding’s first start was a rare route attempt for him, but he ran very well under some tough circumstances. He broke very slowly out of the gate and rushed up to the front, competing in the stretch before fading late. It was understandable that he was tired, though it’s easy to consider the fact that he just isn’t that comfortable going long. Now he’s going even further in this race, and it feels like Orlando Noda’s asking for a bit much.

Order: 7 2 8 4

I like Malibu Pro, the foreign invader, here for Robertino Diodoro, as I think he would be a strange inclusion if he wasn’t ready. Control Group is trying open company competition, and while I’m unsure of Rodriguez’s intentions, I do like his form and think he can return to it. Mills and Scarf It Down faced off last time, and while they both ran well, I think that Mills is better prepared for this distance.