Saratoga Analysis: Saturday, July 18, 2020

If bettors aren’t playing this Saratoga card today, then they must not like this sport. This card is classy and extremely difficult at certain points, which is the type of Saturday one an expect up here. The fact that this is just one of many such cards this summer is a very exciting thought.

Note: The first nine races are up, and the last three are on the way. Listen, writing is hard.

Race 1

$72,000 Maiden Special Weight for Two-Year-Olds, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt

This is one of several two-year-old races on this card, and they’re the type of races that destroy pick tickets. As they go, I think this one is pretty sensible, but it’s impossible to know who’s ready and who’s not, especially at the Spa. My top four:

3- Mo Mischief

Todd Pletcher is very good with first time starters and recruits John Velasquez to ride. This $500,000 purchase has a 389 Tomlinson for the distance and has been training very well in the morning.

6- Repo Rocks

Bill Mott isn’t always great with first time starters, but this is Saratoga and this one has been training very well in the morning. Junior Alvarado is one of his preferred riders and the colt has a 382 Tomlinson for the distance.

1- Bajan Rum

Shug McGaughey tends to demonstrate patience with his first time starters, and this colt has been training well but has only been doing so since June. He does recruit Jose Ortiz though to ride a mount that has a 391 Tomlinson for the distance.

2- Momos

Christophe Clement is excellent with first time starters, but only managed to secure Manny Franco as a rider here. This colt has received a turf workout recently, but has a 415 Tomlinson for the distance.

Order: 3 6 1 2

Mo Mischief and Repo Rocks are my top two selections, while Bajan Rum and Momos are more useful value plays in a race providing little information beforehand.

 

Race 2

$50,000 Starter Allowance for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 1/16 Miles on the Mellon Turf

There’s one very sensible runner in this race and a field of competitors trying a new level. My top four:

1- Mr. Kringle

I mean, my second and third selections in this race are coming off of maiden wins, while this runner just finished third in the G3 Pennine Ridge behind Decorated Invader and Proven Strategies. Granted, he did benefit from a perfect trip in that race, but he finished third in the G3 Pennine Ridge. This is supposed to be a step up to race older competition, but five of his seven opponents are also three. He’s not going to be easy to beat.

4- Battalion

Gulfstream in May is obviously much lighter than in the winter months, and to break his maiden, he had to hold off Scanno, who has proven to be a bit of a hanger in his recent starts in New York. That being said, Batallion did seem to outrun him on one of his better days, and the pair proved to be much better than that field. Bill Mott ships his colt up to Saratoga here, which is obviously a great sign, and his only winner of the meet so far was Propensity on opening day, who was ridden by John Velasquez. He may take a step forward here

Side Note: While researching Bill Mott, I found out that he had a horse running at Indiana Grand for $5,000 last Monday. He had shipped him there from Churchill Downs, and he won against a bunch of unknown trainers at 3-1 odds. 3-1? Bill Mott’s horse was the second choice in a race at Indiana Grand, and the horse favored in front of him was one that he had just finished in front of at Churchill. What are they doing in the Midwest? Can’t they take a break from watching the corn grow to put a bet on a national trainer that’s blessing them with a horse in a dumpster diving claiming event? Here’s the kicker: no one claimed him. I think I’m moving to Indiana.

3- Winning Factor

It took him 14 tries and a new trainer, but David Dino finally guided this colt to his maiden win at the same distance he’ll be running at in this race. It wasn’t hard to tell that this horse was sitting on a big race, as the jockey change from Luis Cardenas to Jose Ortiz indicated more confidence. However, the victory may be better than it appears because he managed to close into an extremely slow pace. Ortiz stays here, and sometimes, horses can string together wins once they get the hang of it. 

5- Kilronan

He’s the oldest runner in the race, but only has one start in 2020 after having not raced since 2018. He performed fairly well behind Bray and Mandate that day, which nearly qualifies him for this one. He’ll have to improve in his second start off the layoff for Archibald Kingsley, but I don’t think that’s out of the question considering he’s surely still figuring things out again.

Order: 1 4 3 5

Mr. Kringle ran well in an excellent race last time out, and shouldn’t have trouble against these. Battalion is appealing to me slightly more than Winning Factor, but both have a reasonable chance of improving on their maiden performances. Kilronan is interesting for his age and may take a step forward against a younger field.

 

Race 3

National Museum Hall Of Fame Stakes (G2) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 1/8 Miles on the Inner Turf 

This race appears to be setting up for two horses, nearly identical in terms of talent and success. Decorated Invader and Gufo are both rising stars of the turf, and it will be very exciting to watch them face off here. My top four:

7- Decorated Invader

He was awesome last time out to win the G3 Pennine Ridge, his second graded stakes victory and his first since the G1 Summer last September. Sometimes, promising two-year-olds don’t pan out as they continue in their careers, but that doesn’t appear to be the case here. He’s been brilliant thus far in 2020, and while he has stout challenger Gufo to deal with today, he should be able to move forward again.

5- Gufo (SCRATCHED)

Since breaking his maiden back in December, he’s been perfect in every sense of the word, winning four straight starts and a G3 stakes in his last start at Delaware. One distinct advantage he has over Decorated Invader is that he’s won at this distance in two previous races. It’s a testament to his ability that he has a solid chance of beating Decorated Invader, and if the price is right, I may just place a wager on it.

1- Domestic Spending (GB)

I think this gelding is a little overbet because Chad Brown is his trainer. That being said, he’s being brought along at a rapid pace, which indicates that Brown sees promise beyond the horse’s past performances. He’s coming off the second race of his career, an allowance win against lesser opponents Don Juan Kitten and Maxwell Esquire. He could certainly improve here, but he has two very strong contenders to deal with.

3- Get Smokin

I believe this is a two-horse race, and one of the few ways they can lose is if they’re wired. Jose Ortiz is likely going to be able to take this horse to an unconstested lead up front, and from there he’ll try to slow down the race and hold in the stretch. It didn’t work last time out when this colt lost to Domestic Spending, or the time before that when he lost to Decorated Invader. But hey, wire-to-wire victories are fickle sometimes, and it’s hard to tell when they’re coming.

Order: 7 5 1 3 (Note: The 5, Gufo, is scratched.)

I’m giving Decorated Invader a slight edge over Gufo, though I think it will ultimately come down to which gets the better trip. Domestic Spending appears a little overwhelmed, but Chad Brown wouldn’t enter him if he didn’t have a chance. Get Smokin has speed, a valuable asset, though her chances of pulling off the upset are remote.

 

Race 4

$32,000 Claiming for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Six Furlongs on the Dirt

I said I would admit when I didn’t have a clue, and I’m saying it now. Beyond an obvious, if vulnerable, favorite, this race is frustrating me a little. I took my best shot below:

1- Baby Boss

This mare hasn’t raced since December, but she was running in better company at that time and will likely get some class relief here. In her last race, four of the eight runners came back to win their next races, and she finished third that day. She hasn’t been in for a claiming tag in a long time, and it’s possible that she’s simply better than her competition here as she Make her five-year-old debut.

5- Archumybaby

I had no feel for the race in which this horse won at 7-1. I don’t have much of a clue in this one either, but I have eyes. She ran well last time out, likely benefiting from a more comfortable pace setup than what appears on the paper. The track was very quick that day, and a 22-second opening quarter was standard. She improved dramatically last time out and should do well here if she duplicates that performance. 

6- Jump For Joy

It’s hard to discount this mare’s performance last time out, as she finished alongside Archumybaby and very well could have won. Jose Ortiz stays on for Mertkan Kantarmaci, which indicates that the horse’s last start was a legitmitiate performance.

4- No Deal

This mare’s speed figures at Aqueduct were solid before the layoff, but this isn’t Aqueduct. He wasn’t very good for long in the winter and was soon forced to take time off. There’s no reason the form will be preserved for Chris Englehart, but at least Jose Lezcano takes the mount.

Order: 1 5 6 4

Baby Boss is in a little danger coming off the layoff, but if he preserves his form, he shouldn’t have much of an issue. Archumybaby and Jump For Joy beat me last time, and I’ll throw them in for minor prizes based on their good performances last time out. I don’t really care for No Deal, but I don’t really care for the race much either.

 

Race 5

$72,000 Maiden Special Weight for Two-Year-Olds, One Mile on the Inner Turf

This is a really tough race to make money on. There’s nothing to go on as always, but turf routes for two-year-olds is particularly difficult because they traditionally run in sprints. My hesitant top four:

4- Conglomerate

This colt was a part of an entry last month at Belmont, and this half was scratched while the other half won the race. Chad Brown is good at everything and he recruits Jose Ortiz to ride on a horse with an average Tomlinson and fair workout tab.

6- Oak Hill

He performed well in a turf sprint at Churchill last month, and Albert Stall brings him up to Saratoga and stretches him out to a mile here. The colt has been training well and has a 370 Tomlinson for the distance, and Javier Castellano will take the mount.

9- The Angry Man

Based on this runner’s last performance, I don’t know why Dermot Magner would put him on the turf. He performed very well on dirt, which tells me that he must have some turf ability or else they wouldn’t waste their time. Joel Rosario replaces Luis Saez in the saddle.

10- Red Flag Alert

This is one of two horses in the race that has route experience, and it appears that he ran into some very stout competition in his first start at Belmont last month. That was on a yielding track, and improvement with second time starters is common. Manny Franco stays on for George Weaver and a mount with a 403 Tomlinson for the distance.

Order: 4 6 9 10

When the going gets tough, the answer’s usually Chad Brown, which is why I’m going with Conglomerate in a race that doesn’t make sense by design. Oak Hill is an interesting runner for Albert Stall, a trainer that doesn’t waste his time in New York. The Angry Man and Red Flag Alert strike me as outsiders, but everyone has a chance in this one.

 

Race 6

$72,000 Maiden Special Weight for Two-Year-Olds, 1 1/16 Miles on the Mellon Turf

Read my description of the previous race and understand why this card is so difficult. My top four:

2- The Right Stuff (GB)

Wesley Ward isn’t very good at debuting horses at a route distance, but I like the addition of Tyler Gaffalione. He’s been running well in the morning, and it seems like this is the type of race he’s being pointed towards.

1- Rip It

Christophe Clement is excellent debuting at a route and recruits Joel Rosario to ride. The colt has a 369 Tomlinson for the distance and has been training extensively on the turf recently.

3- Nautilus

I don’t why Brad Cox is switching this horse to turf, and I don’t know why he’s doing it now. However, he’s successful when doing it, although losing John Velasquez may be vaguely concerning.

8- Breakthrough

Apparently I just like Wesley Ward’s two-year-olds, but I don’t think I’m the only one. He ran fairly well in his first start on turf, and Ward stretches him out to a mile here. He’s been a beaten favorite twice, but maybe this distance will suit him.

Order: 2 1 3 8

Maybe Rip It is better prepared than The Right Stuff for this race, but then again, Nautilus and Breakthrough have equally valid chances. This race is ridiculous.

 

Race 7

$74,000 Allowance for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, Six Furlongs on the Dirt

This race appears to be a little weak, but the horses are evenly matched and the race should be interesting to watch. I went with with ability over experience in this one when forming my top four:

1- Yaupon

This is the type of horse that makes a handicapper feel smarter then they ought to when they bet on him. He was extremely game in the stretch to break his maiden last month, and handicappers can’t help but feel they did well to select such a brave horse, as if that was something they saw in the Racing Form. In all seriousness, he did display a lot of ability and determination last time out, and I don’t see anything in this race that will be overwhelming for him.

3- Blindwillie McTell

I’ve always been a fan of this NY-bred, and I don’t mind him so much here as he takes his second stab at open company competition. His four-year-old debut was a step back from his stellar three-year-old form, but that’s forgivable, because he was racing at a pretty steady clip for a long time last year. He regains the services of Jose Ortiz for this race, and I think he may step into the condition more efficiently than he did last time out.

2- Binkster

This five-year-old has seen better days, but I think he still has a race or two left in him. He usually flashes more early speed than he has recently, and I’m not entirely sure he can be trusted to go and fight for the lead anymore. That means that Dylan Davis will have to find a trip for him, which is a little concerning. His first race off the layoff wasn’t very good a nd a few poor workouts recently don’t necessarily spell out improvement. However, there have been worse horses to win races like these, and there’s still a chance he has something to show.

6- The Sicarii

The Sicarii were a rebel group of Judeans opposing the takeover of Jerusalem by the Roman Empire under future Emperor Titus. Pretty cool, right? Just as a side note, hes the only horse in the race with a win at Saratoga.

Order: 1 3 2 6

Yaupon ran extremely well in his first race, and I think it’s very likely that he can capitalize on a weak field and make it two in a row here. Blindwillie McTell and Binkster have similar situations here, but I think the former has a better chance of improving here. He also has the better name. The Sicarii is a horse that taught me something, and he also happened to be the last horse I didn’t toss, making him a deserving member of my top four.

 

Race 8

$25,000 Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 1/8 Miles on the Dirt

This race is full of experienced, hard knocking older horses looking for a check. It’s not really a stepping stone, but there are far worse spots for a horse to belong. My top four:

3- Creative Style

I believe that this gelding has two primary opponents in this race, and those two seem to have an aversion to the winner’s circle. This runner has no such qualms, having won two of his four starts this year. In his last start, he definitely had several advantages over Hoffenheim. He was entering his second start off the layoff and he got a much better trip. Under most circumstances, I would pick Hoffenheim here, as I did the last time they faced off. However, this horse has won at Saratoga at the past and he’s in more proven condition.

1- Hoffenheim

I am very tempted to pick this horse again. He hasn’t won a race since 2018, but he’s been racing against very stiff competition since then. His last two starts both came off of layoffs, and he hasn’t had the opportunity to string two together like this in a while. In his last race against fellow runner Creative Style, Reylu Gutierrez gave up an inside position to take him wide, ending his race then and there. Jeremiah Englehart found a new jockey, but could’ve done better than Luis Cardenas. I really think he’s going to improve this time around, but there are just a few too many questions for me to support him on top.

9- Hammerin Aamer

He’s been running consistently well at Laurel recently, having run four straight races at almost exactly the same level. He won his first start off the layoff, his first victory in a very long time, and that may indicate that he’s turned a corner since his days of losing in classier New York races last year. However, that victory was on the front end under very slow fractions, a performance he’s unlikely to duplicate here. He’ll have to win from off the pace again, and he hasn’t proven to be effective with that style in a long time.

6- Musical Heart

I don’t really care for this runner, so I should take this time to point out that none of these runners have proven they can run this far. I’ve taken that into account, but also can’t really knock a single horse for it because none of them have really been tested going this far. Anyway, this gelding won his last dirt start in May by ten lengths going a mile and a quarter. However, that race was off the turf, and I strongly suspect that this horse prefers a wet track. He fits here based on his recent form, but I think that form is deceptive.

Order: 3 1 9 6

I’m extremely tempted by Hoffenheim, but until I see that his form has improved, I won’t have enough information to make a wager. Based on his past performances, Creative Style is in the best condition entering this race, and also has recent wins that were earned under similar conditions to the ones he’ll race under today. Hammerin Aamer’s only recent victory was earned through a wire-to-wire dream trip that he won’t receive again. Musial Heart is a wet track horse that will take some unearned money, although his experience going longer may serve him well if the others aren’t up to the test.

Race 9

$80,000 Allowance Optional Claiming for Four-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Four Races, 1 1/16 Miles on the Inner Turf

This is a solid race for horses aspiring to stakes competition. Some of them are closer than others, but like every turf race at Saratoga, the winner will be the horse getting the best trip. My top four:

7- Digital Age

No, this colt hasn’t won in over a year, but that’s a silly thing to hold against him. In that time, he’s run against some of the best turf horses in the country, among them Social Paranoia, A Thread of Blue, Henley’s Joy, Mo Forza, and Standard Deviation. He competed with them at every turn, but never won a graded stakes himself. His first start of this year was a very game second place finish in an $80,000 optional claimer, a performance that earned him a 96 BSF. He’s against some tough runners here, but Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz are fearful figures against anything.

6- Set Piece (GB)

He ran very well in his first race stateside, winning a conditional optional claiming competition with a 94 BSF over Ballagh Rocks, who performed well in his next start. Brad Cox has prepared this horse wonderfully for Saratoga, as he’s gone from unknown European commodity to American contender in the span of a month. He has a very real chance to make it two in a row.

9- Monarchs Glen (GB)

I think I picked this horse in my top four last time out. If I didn’t, I was definitely thinking about it. He hasn’t won a race since 2018, but in his first start off the layoff, he ran well, running wide to finish fourth behind fellow runner Digital Age. Jose Lezcano comes back and he’s coming back for his second race off the layoff. I don’t know, he’s vaguely interesting to me.

1- Red Right Hand

I picked this gelding over other outsiders because he has some intriguing class advantages over other runners. In addition to a hopeless graded stakes attempt, he ran at this level in his first race off the layoff and didn’t make it to the front, folding late to finish seventh. He may have a little trouble getting the lead to himself here as well, but at least the pace should be reasonable. He stands to improve here.

Order: 7 6 9 1

Digital Age and Set Piece each have very solid chances to win this race, but I’m giving the edge to Digital Age and Chad Brown. From there, Monarchs Glen is interesting as a value play that maybe, with the perfect trip and a full moon at high tide, could run well enough to win this one. Red Right Hand is experienced at this level and should improve some here as well.

Race 10 (FULL ANALYSIS)

Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) for Three-Year-Old Fillies, 1 1/8 Miles on the Dirt

Ruffian and Shuvee have won this race. More recently, Songbird, Monomoy Girl, and Guarana have won this race. It seems to develop superstars. As a result, I’ll be doing a full analysis of this race before including my order after I go through every horse, starting with:

1- Tonalist’s Shape

Beyond a very poor start in the G2 Gulfstream Park Oaks, this horse has been flawless in seven starts. She’s won two graded stakes races, the only runner in the race to do so, and Saffie Joseph and Irad Ortiz are dominant when working together. To nitpick, her last race wasn’t as fast as some of her other performances, but she won by four lengths and was likely geared down as the 1-2 favorite. She’ll be very tough to best here coming off a short layoff.

2- Antoinette

I don’t know what Bill Mott’s plan was when he entered this filly on the turf in the G3 Wonder Again, but it worked out better than I thought it would. Now she returns to the dirt, and she’s never really raced poorly. That being said, she hasn’t yet won a race as a three-year-old, and now she’s stepping into a G1 stakes race. She’s a contender, but it will be a test for her.

3- Altaf (SCRATCHED)
4- Velvet Crush

She may have been 17-1 in an optional claimer last time out, but her victory that day was legitimite. She was three-wide around the first turn and stayed in touch with the leader, who eventually faded in the stretch. This runner, however, remained resolute and held off a very determined challenger in the stretch. It was her first real distance test, and she passed it surprisingly well. 

5- Crystal Ball

This filly earned a big figure wiring a four-horse field at Santa Anita. I’m not fond of those races as tests for these races, but Bob Baffert feels confident and ships her to Saratoga for a very big race here. She’ll get the lead, which obviously makes her dangerous. She could win, but I’d like to think that other horses in here are better prepared.

6- Paris Lights

She’s had everything her way in her last two starts, winning easily against inferior fields. Bill Mott steps her up ambitiously here, but she’s proven fast enough to compete here. She’s a very serious challenger, although she will require a little experience before she tackles larger, even better fields.

Order: 1 6 4 5

Tonalist’s Shape and Paris Lights have very different levels of experience here, although neither runner seems superior in terms of ability. I’m giving Tonalist’s Shape the edge because of her immaculate racing record and several stakes wins. For third, I’ll take a small chance with Velvet Crush, who I think ran a legitimate race in her last start. Crystal Ball could wire this field for Bob Baffert, but I think she still needs to prove herself before she contends with runners of this caliber.

 

Race 10

$62,000 Maiden Special Weight for NY-Bred Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Six Furlongs on the Dirt

I thought this race was vaguely interesting at first, but then I got caught up in a research project spanning 27 years and studying workout reports at Pimlico. Now I’m pretty invested in this one. My top four:

2- American Piper

I really like Papa Luke and Midnight Whiskey, so allow me to indulge myself here for a second. It’s times like these that make me love Saratoga. I have no idea who Rick Buckley is, and I don’t know if I’ll ever see him again. Let’s get to know him. He’s primarily an owner, but has been training horses on and off since 1993. In 27 years, he has never brought a horse to Saratoga. He’s 0-for-7 this year, but he must really like his first time starter here, who’s been training exclusively at Pimlico, and quickly at that. This is already nuts, but add Irad Ortiz to the mix, and this horse frankly becomes too interesting to pass on, even if there’s very little to go on. I’m fascinated.

7- Papa Luke

There’s only one notable race in this runner’s past performances, when he stalked the pace last time out and finished second to a deep closer under fast fractions. He may get a similar pace scenario in this race, and should stalk Midnight Whiskey and make a move on the turn. I like his chances here.

4- Midnight Whiskey

In his last race at Belmont, he nearly had a field of deep closers wired when he was passed by three horses in the final hundred yards. Losing a four-horse photo is a tough beat, and if Joel Rosario can soften the pace this time around, this horse will be very dangerous in his second start off the layoff. 

10- Top of the Mint

This gelding closed well in his last start, but several others did too and they outfinished him. He’s run well several times but has struggled to make a real impact. Jose Ortiz is a great addition for Mark Hennig, and this horse stands to improve in his second start off the layoff.

Order: 2 7 4 10

American Piper is coming up to Saratoga for a completely unknown trainer, and the fact that Irad is taking the mount is mind boggling to me. Papa Luke and Midnight Whiskey should create a pretty traditional pace scenario, with one taking the lead and the other stalking. I think they both have a solid chance. I think Top of the Mint is a step below based on her last start, but he can build on that.

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