Consider this card the calm before the storm. Tomorrow will be the best day of racing at Saratoga thus far this meet, but before that, a Friday full of competent (if not stellar) competition awaits. Let’s get through it together.
Race 1
$50,000 Maiden Claiming for Two-Year-Old Fillies, Five and a Half Furlongs
This is an average maiden race to begin an average Saratoga card. These first time starters obviously aren’t touted to be killers, or else they wouldn’t be in a claiming race. My top four:
2- Stylish Rags
Wesley Ward is somehow better when debuting horses at the maiden claiming level. He and Jose Ortiz have a decent work rate together, and the filly here has a 350 Tomlinson and a decent work tab.
6- Pazzion
Todd Pletcher and Irad Ortiz are lights out at Saratoga, and Pletcher is very successful with his first time starters. This filly hasn’t been training superbly and has a 334 Tomlinson for the distance, which may explain why she’s in for a claiming price.
3- Spring Break
Michael Maker isn’t usually great with first time starters, but he’s been red hot with everything else lately, so I’m giving all of his horses a second look. This filly has a few decent workouts and a 322 Tomlinson for the distance, and Tyler Gaffalione is a reasonable jockey pick up and nothing more.
5- Our Bella Nicole
This is a weird one, because she really wasn’t very good at Delaware in her last start. Michael Trombetta still brought her to Saratoga though, so I get a conflicted feeling when tossing her. Trombetta adds blinkers and recruits Kendrick Carmouche to ride a filly that has 261 Tomlinson for the distance.
Order: 2 6 3 5
Stylish Rags and Pazzion are the clear top choices based on their trainer’s success in this sort of race. From there, Spring Break and Our Bella Nicole are sneaky runners to include in exotic bets.
Race 2
$16,000 Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
This is a fairly competitive claiming race, despite the fact that there’s a very obvious top choice. My top four:
8- Getoffmyback
This gelding picked up right where he left off in his first start off the layoff. That was a very solid performance last month, when he remained in touch up front early and ran away from the field in the stretch. Such a trip has been working immensely well for horses at Saratoga recently, especially when they’re the best horse in the field. He’s proven on two straight occasions to be faster than fellow runner O Shea Can You See, and he’s finished in the money 11 times in 16 tries at this distance. He’s certainly the one to beat.
4- Business Cycle
This gelding has been running hard lately, and that’s all I ask for really. After a few successful starts at lower claiming levels, he was entered at $25,000 and proved to be a little overwhelmed. He’s back in at $16,000, which is a more reasonable spot, and he’s back at Saratoga, one of his favorite tracks. He’s definitely a contender here.
3- O Shea Can You See
I picked this gelding to win last time out, and I was sorely disappointed. Linda Rice brings him back within 10 days, which means that she’s either trying to get rid of him or trying to find him a reasonable spot. He’s been sliding in form lately and boasts a 1-for-14 distance record and an 0-for-3 Saratoga record. I don’t love his chances for the top spot, but he’s still a competent runner.
2- Missle Bomb
With the right trainer, this gelding would be one to consider, but with John Toscano, he’s very difficult to take off a layoff. He was a very solid runner last year but hasn’t raced in nearly a year. Luis Saez is an encouraging addition, but Toscano can’t be trusted to bring his horse back fresh here.
Order: 8 4 3 2
Getoffmyback seems to be a fairly obvious winner here, and will make a very sensible favorite. From there, Business Cycle and O Shea Can You See are very qualified and can run well, while Missle Bomb is a solid horse that may need a race.
Race 3
$72,000 Maiden Special Weight for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, 1 3/8 Miles on the Inner Turf
I don’t really love anything in this race. There are some good horses here, but nothing’s jumping off the page at me. My best attempt:
8- Sengekontacket
Last time was probably the winning trip, but this filly came up just short to lose a photo in her turf debut. Brad Cox steps her back up to maiden special weight competition, and based on his statistics, there’s reason to believe she could fire well in her second start off the layoff. Cox started the meet poorly but has been making up ground recently, and I think he’s found the right surface with this one.
6- Sursum Corda
Ian Wilkes has been bringing some live horses to Saratoga, and this filly clearly has ability. She’s run very hard in the stretch but has come up short in two straight attempts down in Kentucky, which isn’t always encouraging but is never a terrible sign either. I feel secure going against her, but I won’t be at all surprised if she manages to run down this field.
1- Fashion Mo
This filly was soundly defeated by fellow runner Sursum Corda in her last start, and on paper she’s a step behind the main contenders. However, Ignacio Correas usually brings live runners to Saratoga and recruits Jose Ortiz to ride here. I don’t see why this runner can’t contend for a minor prize.
7- Wicked Happy
She’s been running against claimers recently, and Leah Gyarmati feels confident enough to bring her back to the maiden special weight level. She really has been running well down there and I appreciate the bold placement, so I’m considering her for a show finish as well.
Order: 8 6 1 7
Sengekontacket ran very well in her turf debut, and there’s some reason to suspect that she can repeat that performance. Sursum Corda is a talented horse that will have to close again, a running style that hasn’t had too much success recently at Saratoga. Fashion Mo and Wicked Happy are interesting outsiders.
Race 4
$80,000 Allowance Optional Claiming for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward Which Have Never Won Four Races
This is another race that I find profoundly uninteresting. Let’s keep this moving:
2- Lady T N T
This filly has never fired fresh off a layoff, and ran to form last time out. On a very hot pace in which she didn’t get the lead, she faded badly in a race she probably couldn’t have won anyway. She returns here in her second start since the break, and I understand there are still knocks against her. She’s extremely lead dependent and is prone to folding at inopportune times. However, she’ll be getting a speed-friendly track here and the rail in a likely duel against Liza Star. She’s not a good dueler historically, but she did break her maiden at Saratoga.
4- Liza Star
This mare is probably a deserving favorite, as Peter Walder wouldn’t waste his time bringing her up if she didn’t have a chance. She also loves to win, especially at this distance. She’s a proven dueler, though she does benefit most from a clear lead. My primary issue is that she’ll have to duel from the outside against Lady T N T this time around, a scenario in which she would have to be much better than her opponent to win. My secondary issue is that she seems… a little obvious. That’s a very hard thought to explain, but when a horse seems ultra sensible, it doesn’t always transfer to a victory for whatever reason. I’m going to take a stab against her.
3- Unholy Alliance
This filly will benefit greatly from a potential duel up front, which could give her the opportunity to get a trip like the one she ran back in January at Gulfstream. That being said, she seems to be a little layoff-dependent as well, which has made her seem a little inconsistent. In addition, her best lifetime performance wouldn’t be good enough to win here. Those two factors combined make her difficult to trust.
5- Pacific Gale
This mare has run against some of the best fillies and mares of her generation, but she can’t seem to buy a win. That’s not really her fault, but what is problematic is her dip in form recently. That’s a serious issue, and despite her class, she’s very hard to trust here after several rough performances.
Order: 2 4 3 5
In a race where I don’t like any of the horses, I’ll take a misguided shot with Miss T N T and hope that the speed on the rail holds up. Liza Star is qualified, but there’s something concerning to me, and although I can’t really describe it, she feels like the type of horse I’ve bet on and lost with in the past. Unholy Alliance is too inconsistent to trust fully, even if she will likely get an excellent trip. Meanwhile, Pacific Gale’s best days may be behind her.
Race 5
$40,000 Maiden Claiming for NY-Bred Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf
The hits keep on coming. This is another race that I’m profoundly bored by. It’s not wide open, nor is it competitive in a good way. It’s a battle of wills between horses that seem to lack ability and interest. My top four:
5- Love Me Tomorrow
She doesn’t race on the turf often, but I’m pretty sure that it’s her preferred surface. Two starts back, this filly ran second in a turf sprint after leading into the stretch, earning a competitive 56 BSF. She’ll likely be the only one gunning for the lead in this one, and I think she may have some staying power this time around.
4- Silent Empress
Christophe Clement is pretty good with first time starters, though his firster debuting at this level yesterday ran very poorly. This filly has a pedestrian work tab but also has a 377 Tomlinson for the distance. Clement works well with Joel Rosario, and he may be ready on first asking.
2- Sandra’s Mine
This filly ran very well in defeat several times last year but came up flat in her 2020 debut last month. If she can get back to some of her races last year, she has a great chance here. If anything, it’s likely that she’ll improve, though it’s unclear if it will be enough.
6- High School Crush
She’s a competent runner, but she’s been beaten by Love Me Tomorrow and Dream Chasing in her last two starts. In addition, Gary Sciacca is winless in turf sprints. She’s an outsider here.
Order: 5 4 2 6
Love Me Tomorrow should work out a solid trip here, and I’m not sure anyone will manage to run her down. Silent Empress and Sandra’s Mine are on opposite spectrums when it comes to experience, but I’d give them both a fair chance of running well here. High School Crush will have to improve.
Race 6
$35,000 Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt
These races are always strange, because they always feature horses improving facing off against horses dropping in class. It makes them difficult to gauge because all the runners are on a sliding scale, and it’s sometimes difficult to tell where they’ll land. My top four:
1- Empire Line
In his first start off a yearlong layoff last month, this gelding ran very well to finis behind front runner Riken, who won his next start. For a five-year-old, this runner is very lightly raced, but doesn’t seem to have lost a step from four to five. In his second start of 2020 for George Weaver, I expect him to duplicate his performance last time out.
2- Cobble Hill
This runner has improved in three straight starts, a mediocre seven-race maiden to a fairly impressive low level horse in just two starts. His last victory was visually impressive as he ran away to win by seven lengths in his first test against winners. He keeps improving and could very well take another step forward here for Rudy Rodriguez off the claim.
3- Zealous
Jimmy Bond is trying to find his gelding some class relief, which is concerning considering that he’s regressed in his two most recent starts at the allowance level. He’s clearly lost a step, or else he wouldn’t be dropping like this, and while he does roughly fit in this field, it’s better to see a horse improving than one taking a step back.
6- Cause of Action
This colt was very good in his last start, winning a $40,000 conditional claimer by four lengths. The field wasn’t particularly competitive that day, but he still took care of business in a career-best performance. He’s up against a tougher field here for Edward Barker, and he’ll have to improve, but that’s not impossible by any means.
Order: 1 2 3 6
It’s easy as 1, 2, 3… 6. Not very catchy, but I think Empire Line has been running best of all recently and may even take a step forward in his second start of the year. Cobble Hill and Cause of Action are improving with each start, while Zealous is trying to find a win against weaker fields. That makes them difficult to compare, but they may all end up at around the same place, with Cobble Hill getting an edge.
Race 7
$40,000 Claiming for Three-Year-Olds, 1 1/16 Miles on the Inner Turf
This is the first solid race of the day, as there are several very interesting runners in here from around the country. Somehow, Maker’s runners make the top two, but there’s a lot more to like beyond them in my top four:
10- Dynadrive
He’s had some tough luck lately, as two of his last four starts have been rained off the turf. His first start off the layoff was a defeat behind Blanket of Roses, but in May, he ran much better and seems to have maintained that form since. Michael Maker has been red hot recently, and he had to choose which of his two horses would be ridden by Irad Ortiz. He went with this runner, which makes me think he’ll be ready to move forward here.
4- Blanket of Roses
This is Maker’s other runner in this race, and he’s just as dangerous as his counterpart. In his first start off the layoff, he improved as well, running fourth in a tough allowance race. He hasn’t won at the distance or at Saratoga, but that’s not a knock against him. The only downside here is that Irad Ortiz would have ridden this horse if Maker hadn’t assigned him to Dynadrive. He’s still a serious contender here.
8- Me and Mr. C
I can forgive this horse for running poorly in the G3 Kent, well beaten by top three-year-Old Gufo. If anything, it’s a good sign that Edward Allen thinks highly of his horse, and it’s another good sign that he’s shipping him here. He’s another very professional runner in here, and notched a pretty solid victory before the layoff. He could very well take a step forward here in his second start off the layoff, an angle that works astoundingly well for Allen in the past.
7- Gravitas
With any other trainer, I would toss this horse. However, I’m a sucker for Jonathan Thomas. He literally hasn’t won a race in New York since the Aqueduct meet, but he’s had some contenders at several points. Here’s another one, as this runner has significant early speed and seems stubborn to give up leads. He’s a little cheap, having run in Monmouth and Tampa previously. However, he could have very easily run this horse at Monmouth or Laurel, but he’s chosen this spot. He’s hopeful, and Javier Castellano keeps riding for him for some reason. I’ll take another spin.
Order: 10 4 8 7
Dynadrive may be best prepared here, and the presence of Irad Ortiz for Michael Maker is huge here. Blanket of Roses is a great option as well for Maker, and as long as he keeps winning, I’ll keep considering his runners. Me and Mr. C is an intriguing shipper that might be targeting this race, which makes him a great option as well. I’m going to keep including Jonathan Thomas runners in my analysis, and Gravitas won’t be the last such inclusion.
Race 8
$64,000 Allowance for NY-Bred Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
This is actually another decent race, with two or three interesting contenders to consider. My top four, though readers will see that all four spots aren’t really necessary:
9- Jewel of Arabia
This filly hasn’t really improved from two to three, but in her defense, improvement hasn’t been necessary yet. In her second start off the layoff, she crushed a statebred maiden special weight by seven lengths. Christophe Clement has been on fire at Saratoga lately and he gets his go-to jockey Joel Rosario to ride. She seems poised to perform well against winners.
8- Flashpackinbarbie
If Jose Ortiz had stayed on to ride, this runner would have been my first selection. One bad start last year has accompanied two very solid victories, which indicates that this horse likes to run. She’ll also be stepping into statebred competition, but my one issue is the presence of Manny Franco. Jose Ortiz is riding a horse at much longer odds for Jeremiah Englehart, and I seriously doubt Jorge Abreu was looking for a rider change.
3- Thea’s Name
Here’s the filly that Jose Ortiz is riding for Englehart, and she makes no sense on paper. However, she hasn’t raced since two either, and improvement can come dramatically with these runners. There’s nothing to go on here other than the addition of Ortiz, which is a conspicuous sign that suggests potential improvement at a price.
6- Shesasuperfreak
I’ll shoot straight with everyone. Sometimes I’ll make a top four by eliminating horses, and in this race, I liked three horses. I’ve already mentioned them, and this horse is the last one I didn’t cross out. She hasn’t won in an extremely long time, but I do happen to like her last start at Parx. There’s a chance she’s putting the pieces together, but to be honest, if she was the 1 in this race, I may have tossed her prematurely. Won’t it be pretty cool if she wins though, right? If she does, I’ll be taking full credit for my superior handicapping prowess.
Order: 9 8 3 6
Jewel of Arabia and Flashpackinbarbie are the two key contenders here, and I’m taking Jewel of Arabia because I believe there are better intentions being made here. Thea’s Name is vaguely interesting as one that may be sitting on a big race, while Shesasuperfreak is a pretty random inclusion that didn’t grow on me until I noticed she was one of the four selections remaining.
Race 9
Coronation Cup (Ungraded) for Three-Year-Old Fillies, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf
I like to see a Cup instead of a Stakes. It feels like a throwback to olden times, when a gold cup was actually part of the purse for the race. Anyway, this is a pretty solid race with some runners trying to transition into graded stakes competition. My top four:
4- Miss J McKay
I don’t have a great reason for this, but Cathay Lynch is quite possibly my favorite shipping trainer ever. He really brings great horses to New York occasionally, and this is his first Saratoga horse of the meet. In her three-year-old debut, she finished third behind fellow runners Bredenbury and She’s My Type. However, I get the impression that this race was the target, and Jose Ortiz sticking around is an excellent sign.
9- She’s My Type
She’s super reasonable here, and despite finishing second behind Bredenbury last time out, there’s very good logic indicating she’ll improve here. The only reason she’s not first is because I like Miss J McKay a little better, but that’s no reason to go against her, as I agree that she has a very solid chance.
6- Bredenbury (Ire)
This filly was very impressive in her last start, defeating several runners She’s My Type and Miss J McKay on what appeared to be a fair track. However, Graham Motion has been very cold, which has been killing me lately. She was the best of this bunch a month ago, but it’s very possible that someone could improve to beat her this time around.
8- Artie’s Princess
Wesley Ward shipping from Woodbine? Sure, why not, he’s good at everything else lately. This filly was excellent on the synthetic track up north as a two-year-old and took a great step forward in her first race as a three-year-old. She’ll transition to turf here, which Ward does well enough, and Irad Ortiz is a great jockey to stumble into. The 316 Tomlinson is the only real issue here, but she’s very talented on their surfaces and can probably handle this.
Order: 4 9 6 8
Miss J McKay and She’s My Type should improve in their second starts off the layoff, but I’ll take Cathal Lynch over Christophe Clement, which only sounds silly if you think about it. Bredenbury did very well last time out and might do well again, but I think she ran her best race last time out. Artie’s Princess is the outsider, but Wesley Ward thinks she can run on the turf, so she may be worth a wager.
Race 10
$50,000 Starter Allowance for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, 1 1/16 on the Inner Turf
1- Hurricane Breeze
This filly ran fairly well in her last start, and that was at a point in time when Michael Maker was going through a serious dry spell at Belmont. Now he can’t seem to lose at Saratoga, and this horse has some great past performances to work with. If Saratoga was the meet where Maker was planning an assault, it would stand to reason that this horse would take a step forward as so many others have. I like to see Jose Ortiz as well, despite the fact that Irad Ortiz and Javier Castellano have gone elsewhere.
7- Come Storming
This filly took a great step forward in her second start off the layoff, breaking her maiden with a 79 BSF. Thomas Bush has been bringing pretty live horses to Saratoga and Javier Castellano sticks around to ride here. I like her chances in her first start against winners.
3- Lido Key
Ken McPeek doesn’t ship here often, but this filly has earned the trip. She’s been excellent as of late, and on speed figures, is one of the clear contenders. She’s very consistent and is always good for a solid performance, though I favor some others for the top spot.
9- Princess Fawzia
In her first start against winners, this filly improved significantly off a layoff to finish second in a photo against a solid start allowance field. Linda Rice has had a very solid meet so far and Irad Ortiz replaces Jose Lezcano for her second start off the layoff. There’s reason to believe she can compete in her second start off the layoff.