Wednesday racing begins this week at Saratoga, and a reasonably strong card makes it a very interesting day for handicappers. It’s certainly worth a look for handicappers blessed with time
Race 1
Jonathan Kiser Novice Stakes for Four-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, 2 1/16 Miles on Hurdle
My grandfather used to say that a hurdler was just as likely to fall over as it was to win. I don’t know if he had statistics for that, but there was definitely some truth in it. Betting on hurdle races feels a little classier in a European sort of way, and yet, it also makes a handicapper unnecessarily concerned about the horses’ welfare at times. They’re still a fun change of pace for these Saratoga cards, though this one is more obvious than others:
2- Snap Decision
It’s nice to see a friendly face. This gelding used to be a very credible turf router on the New York circuit, but has clearly found a second career as an exceptional hurler. He seemed to enjoy Saratoga last year, when he romped in an allowance at this distance by 38 lengths. He fired fresh off the layoff last time out and appears to be a very credible favorite for Jack Fisher.
4- Galway Kid (Ire)
I’m only willing to bet on hurdlers trained by Fisher and Jonathan Sheppard, and this one is trained by the latter. He broke his maiden last year and then returned this year with another win in an allowance. I don’t believe he can beat the favorite, but there’s not a lot to fault here either.
6- Belisarius (Ire)
This nine-year-old hasn’t won a race since 2018 and he was pulled up in his last start against Snap Decision. However, he usually tends to stick around for a minor prize, which makes him one to consider underneath.
1- Family Tree (GB)
He’s only been hurdling for a short while, having been a fair router until late last year. However, he won his first two hurdle races last year, including a victory over fellow runner Zanzi Win. He returned this year a little flat off the layoff, but if layoff logic transfers over from flat racing, then this horse should be able to use that start and move forward here.
Order: 2 4 6 1
Snap Decision has proven to be an incredibly effective hurdler, and seems to really enjoy Saratoga. Galway Kid is an excellent candidate for second place, while Belisarius and Family Tree are more viable candidates underneath. I’m looking forward to this one.
Race 2
$40,000 Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
This is a strange race scenario where I actually prefer the less experienced horses based on their recent success. My top four:
2- Wicksters Dream
This horse is perplexing to me, but he may have an advantage over some other runners here. His last start at two was a very impressive maiden win, one that was very likely aided by a track bias. However, the 78 BSF was nevertheless impressive for his age, and he hasn’t raced since. This will be his three-year-old debut and he’s taking on older horses, which is a strange move. What’s also strange is the $40,000 price tag on him in his return, as I would think that trainer Kelly Breen would want to keep this colt based on his potential from last year. Against the favorites in this race, though, he will likely have an interest in winning, and if he’s in condition, that apparent will may guide him to the winner’s circle.
4- Brazen
Rodolphe Brisset saddled three winners at the Saratoga meet last summer, and Jose Ortiz was aboard all three of them. This colt is obviously questionable based on his last start. He wasn’t good enough to defeat Kentucky Derby contender Cezanne in his first start, and found a much softer field at Indiana Grand. Regardless of the race quality, he performed well, running alone up front under honest fractions and drawing away at the end. There are plenty of reasons to go against this horse, and I agree with many of them, but I don’t think Brisset would ship him here for nothing and I like the winning recency. He has a chance.
7- Bernin’ Thru Gold
This ridgling always performs reasonably well, and is getting some class relief as he enters for a claiming tag for the first time. However, there are several occasions where he had the opportunity to win in his career and didn’t. His only victory came when he broke his maiden early last year, and the result of that race was never in question because he had a massive lead at every point against a field that was overwhelmed. He won’t be getting that sort of lead here because there are several runners that will join him on the front end. He’s a credible runner that is capable of winning, but I prefer others.
3- Box of Chocolates
This horse has finished in the money nine times in his career, but only has one win to show for it. Based on recent speed figures, he’s the fastest horse in the field and should be able to handle them easily. However, he’s received a lot of attention from bettors in the past and always seems to find a way to give it up. He’ll also be closing, which has proven a little difficult on the dirt as of late. I’ll take a shot against him.
Order: 2 4 7 3
Wicksters Dream and Brazen are far more interesting to me than Bernin’ Thru Gold and Box of Chocolates, despite the fact that they suffer a little in terms of speed figures. The fact that they’ve won a race recently is a very big deal against runners that may just be used to running with the pack. I think they offer serious value here.
Race 3
Lubash Stakes (NY-Bred) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 1/16 Miles on the Mellon Turf
This race features a very small field with an extremely obvious winner. My top four, not that’s it necessary:
1- Cross Border
I don’t believe the winner of this race is in question. This ridgling has competed against some of the best turf horses in the country, most recently in the G1 Manhattan which he lost by a length. Against fellow NY-breds, he simply towers above. There’s only one real way he can lose, which I’ll get into a little later on, but that’s not nearly enough to consider. In my opinion, he’d have to toss his jockey to lose.
4- Dante’s Fire
This gelding took a big step forward last time when he took a statebred allowance with an 82 BSF, defeating Jack the Cat in the process. He seems to like the distance, and his only start at Saratoga was an upset second place finish at 43-1 in his two-year-old debut. Despite his merits, he’s woefully unprepared for Cross Border.
6- Blewitt
This horse is the only one with a chance to defeat Cross Border. He’s an extremely fast horse on the dirt, and will be making his turf debut here. Todd Pletcher must have figured out that this field would be vulnerable and thought to take a chance with a horse he knew to be talented. He’s completely untested on the turf, but has a 405 Tomlinson for the distance. If his dirt form is consistent with his turf form, he should manage to get the lead, and he’ll try to wire the field from there. There’s a chance that occurs, but there’s also a chance he doesn’t handle turf as well as a graded stakes placed runner like Cross Border. I think one scenario is more likely than the other.
3- The J Y
He has proven turf form and is very consistent, though he hasn’t won a race since last July. He’s not fast enough to defeat Cross Border.
Order: 1 4 6 3
Cross Border is much the best in this field, and is here to pick up a quick purse before moving on to bigger things. Blewitt is the only horse that could feasibly contend, and it only appears that way on the basis of his dirt form.
Race 4
$40,000 Maiden Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
This is an interesting race featuring maidens from a few different tracks. That makes it a more competitive event than the average Belmont race at the same level. My top four:
7- Tenderfoot
I’m somewhat impressed by the quality of this gelding’s last start. Coming off a layoff, he broke a step slow that day at Churchill, but made up ground in a sixth place finish behind Yaupon, who proved to be the real deal in a race last week at Saratoga. He’s simply been facing superior competition than other runners in this race, and if he can break better from the gate this time around, he’ll be very dangerous in his second start off the layoff for Ian Wilkes.
2- Breithorn
Earlier this year, this runner was also facing better competition in maiden special weights at Aqueduct. Bill Mott can’t seem to decide whether this horse should continue on turf or dirt, but he’s proven equally capable on both based on speed figures. He switches back to dirt here and drops to the maiden claiming level, and Junior Alvarado is an upgrade over his previous jockeys. He may also develop in his second start off the layoff, making him a viable, if obvious, favorite.
5- Macho Jack
He put up a couple of exceptional speed figures in his two-year-old season and makes his three-year-old debut here. Based on natural improvement, it’s very reasonable to suspect that he may be better than this field. That could very well be true, but I’m following Rudy Rodriguez’s lead here. He doesn’t often go to Tyler Gaffalione for mounts, and the fact that he couldn’t get someone more familiar is concerning. I’d rather give this runner a start and go from there.
6- Yankee Empire
This gelding performed well in his first start at the maiden claiming level, finishing second ahead of Brees Bayou, who really should have run better that day. I think John Kimmel is placing this horse as well as he can, and John Velasquez isn’t going anywhere. I just think he’s running up against some tougher runners this time around, which may make a similar performance difficult.
Order: 7 2 5 6
I really like Tenderfoot’s chances based on his last race. He’s one of the few runners in the race that will be getting softer competition, and I think he’ll improve to a point that he can handle it. Breithorn will also be getting significant class relief, and while Bill Mott has been handling him uncertainly, it’s undeniable that he can handle this field. Macho Jack is more of a shot in the dark while Yankee Empire is only proven against lesser competition, making them more interesting underneath.
Race 5
$64,000 Allowance for NY-Bred Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf
This is another race with a fairly obvious favorite, and I won’t try to beat him either. My top four:
8- Maxwell Esquire
This runner was never going to win his last start against Jack and Noah, but he ran very well nonetheless to finish fourth in a career-best performance. He finds a much more appropriate spot here, his first reasonable race in awhile. The Christophe Clement trainee hasn’t been favored or even highly considered since he broke his maiden, which explains why he also hasn’t won despite running fairly well. He appears to be faster than these runners, and although he’s trying a new distance, I believe he’ll be able to handle it against these.
2- Crack Shot
I picked this colt to win his last start, and I felt pretty good at the top of the stretch. That didn’t work out in the end, but I don’t mind it so much in retrospect. He was running at an insane pace that day, and it set up very well for closers. He held well and earned the 73 BSF, which I believe he can improve upon in his second start off the layoff. Jose Ortiz rode him for most of last year and returns here, and I don’t believe the pace will be as harsh this time around, which should give him a fair chance.
3- Inside Info
He’s a big question mark, but I’m vaguely interested in him based on the circumstances. He’s raced twice this year on dirt and has won both starts. He was claimed for $16,000 last time out by Linda Rice, who is now making a bold decision and putting him on the turf. She’s pretty good when switching surfaces, and I don’t think she would enter a proven dirt winner in any other scenario if he couldn’t handle it. Irad Ortiz’s presence only bolsters this theory. She’s also been very hot at Saratoga to start the meet, so maybe her judgment is sharp at the moment.
6- Go Rudy Go
Rudy Rodriguez is a tricky guy. I didn’t see any evidence that this horse would handle the turf in his last start, but that’s exactly what happened when he finally broke his maiden in his second start off the layoff. He’ll be running against much stiffer competition this time around, but that speed figure puts him in a fair position here.
Order: 8 2 3 6
Maxwell Esquire had an excellent start last time out, and he’s getting a very reasonable field here that he shouldn’t struggle against. The distance is the only question, and that’s not compelling enough to go elsewhere. Crack Shot gave up the lead late in his last start, but Jose Ortiz should manage a more reasonable pace for him this time around. Inside Info is a little chancey, but he’s pretty reasonable based on my trust in Linda Rice, who’s been very effective as of late. Go Rudy Go is facing winners for the first time and may have a little trouble adjusting.
Race 6
$25,000 Claiming for NY-Bred Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Six and a Half Furlong on the Dirt
This is another race full of horses that may not be interested in winning. Much of their previous form has gone away, and some very concerning drops make previously talented horses hard to support. My top four:
4- O Shea Can You See
I don’t love this horse, but he always gives a good account of himself. He wins when he’s supposed to, and in this spot, I think he’s supposed to. His recent speed figures indicate that he’s in condition while many of his opponents have seen better days. Meanwhile, he’s one of the few runners that proven to be capable at the distance. Linda Rice has him placed perfectly, and he has a strong chance. This is one of those picks I make where I need several moving pieces to fall in place. For instance, I believe that Eye Luv Lulu, Summer Bourbon, Durkin’s Call, and Just Right are going to deliver sub-optimal performances, while this runner may be rounding into form. It may not come together, but it feels like the best handicapping effort I can make.
8- Summer Bourbon
I picked this horse to win his last race and he was very underwhelming. Maybe the competition was too stiff or he was simply out of condition. In his third start off the layoff, he drops back to a level that he excelled at in the winter at Aqueduct. Rudy Rodriguez is a supremely dangerous claiming trainer, and it’s so difficult to gauge whether this horse will run or not. I like the addition of Junior Alvarado, and I think he may be able to bounce back in this attempt.
7- Just Right
I’m not exactly sure why this horse is selling for $25,000. I also don’t understand why he’s sprinting. Todd Pletcher almost never goes to Ricardo Santana, although they won in their only recent race together. He’s nearly guaranteed to lose this horse, and I’m afraid that’s the point.
6- Durkin’s Call
I’m once again unsure of the distance with this runner, as well as his overall condition. He hasn’t won in a very long time but has also never been in a race for a claiming tag as he is here. The class relief will help, but it’s more a matter of getting him competition he can run with now. His best races may be behind him, and while I believe that he can still do some running in the future, I’m not sure he’ll be doing so at six and a half furlongs.
Order: 4 8 7 6
O Shea Can You See is the only contender that I believe is rounding into form. Summer Bourbon is a viable bounce back candidate, but even a slight return to form may not be enough. Just Right and Durkin’s Call are dropping in class, which I find more troubling than encouraging.
Race 7
$62,000 Maiden Special Weight for NY-Bred Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, 1 1/16 Miles on the Inner Turf
This is an interesting maiden race that may provide some value to bettors. There are several options to like, and I had a little trouble differentiating between a few. My top four:
10- Sainte Mere Eglise
I’ve seen this filly in past performances so often, and yet he’s only raced once. The filly she lost to in that start went on to the G2 Miss Grillo later that year, and this filly has obviously been brought along slowly by Thomas Bush. It’s unclear if she’ll fire fresh off the layoff, but she has likely matured to a point that she’s better than this group. I’ll take her on top because I feel that she’ll be ready to go. Irad Ortiz is a welcome presence.
1- Madison Parc
Racing in California, Donald Chatlos has lost the only privilege of training a NY-bred. I guess he realizes that as well, which is why he’s shipped her across the country to race on the turf against other runners from the Empire State. Her only race on turf was her debut, and it’s arguably her best performance. John Velasquez joins the California invader here, which is a valuable addition. She’s been training well in the morning, and I think she’ll appreciate the move upstate.
6- Gaelic Gold
Her first start back in April was fair, and several of the horses in that race have run well since. Christophe Clement isn’t bringing any poor animals up here, so I can trust her to improve in her second start. Joel Rosario takes the mount, and she’ll likely provide bettors with some value.
4- Two Cent Tootsie
At this point, I can’t really trust this 12-start maiden for the top spot. However, she often runs in the money, which makes her a necessary add underneath.
Order: 10 1 6 4
Sainte Mere Eglise and Madison Parc strike me as the top two contenders in this race, and I believe that both could be in contention in the stretch. Gaelic Gold is also very interesting to me as a runner that could improve significantly. Two Cent Tootsie has a tall task here, and it doesn’t take much of a task to beat her anyway.
Race 8
$74,000 Allowance for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, 1 1/16 Miles on the Mellon Turf
This is a turf race between some very evenly matched runners, which means that it will come down to who gets the best trip. That’s tough for a handicapper, but I make my best attempt below:
6- La Hara (Ire)
Imagine if Chad Brown had lost this gelding for $40,000 last year? He clearly exceeded his trainer’s expectations, winning both of his starts before taking the winter and spring off. He returns in this race for his four-year-old debut, and there’s reason to believe that he’ll be ready. Joel Rosario returns to ride, and he’s been excellent with Brown in the past. Even if he doesn’t mature significantly, he’s still good enough to compete here.
4- Smile Bryan
Graham Motion is a sneaky genius. I knew that this horse was sitting on a big race last time out, and thatwager was rewarded at 5-2 odds. Now Motion has to prepare him for future starts, which tells me this may not be the end goal. However, he is good enough to win here, and it’s great to see Jose Ortiz returning to ride.
2- Wild Medagliad’oro
This colt has been running in Florida statebred competition for three starts now, but he’s still good enough to compete in this race. He’s only run in two turf routes and has run well in both, which indicates that he’s well-placed here. My only issue is that Mark Casse is a little cold at this meet so far and has lost with better horses than this one. However, he’s still a contender.
8- Junkanoo
I love this sort of horse. Chad Brown has had this colt on the shelf for nearly two years now, but in retrospect, he showed some real promise back then. I’d be hard pressed to name a horse that’s beaten Halladay and Seismic Wave, but those are the extremely talented horses that he defeated to break his maiden. Tyler Gaffalione remembers him too and returns to ride here. This is a very interesting betting option that won’t be the same horse he was back then, for better or worse.
Order: 6 4 2 8
La Hara was perfect last year, and should continue his winning ways for Chad Brown. However, he won’t be alone, as Smile Bryan and Medagliad’oro should provide stiff competition. Junkanoo is a completely uncertain commodity that will compensate bettors handsomely if he shows up as a four-year-old.
Race 9
$64,000 Allowance for NY-Bred Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt
I’m not in love with this race, which means that it’s not a very appealing feature race. However, the horses are fairly competitive and it should be mildly interesting in the stretch. My top four:
8- Singular Sensation
I can’t get away from her last performance of 2019 against Ratajkowski. It takes a very talented filly to run with her, and Singular Sensation seemed to do it out of nowhere. His first performance off a very long layoff was somewhat disappointing but I’m willing to give her a pass because she had to duel on the outside on a speed favoring track. This is her second race off the layoff, and I think it’s reasonable to expect some improvement.
3- Sharp Starr
I thought she would win her last start, and she passed the maiden test with flying colors, drawing away to win by five lengths. Horacio DePaz has been bringing live horses to Saratoga thus far, and he works very well with Jose Ortiz. It’s very likely that this horse maintains her form in her first try against winners, as she’ll likely get a favorable trip.
7- Eloquent Speaker
She ran very well in her first start off the layoff to break her maiden. Based on that performance, she’s more than qualified to contend here, but I have my concerns. She has significant early speed, but has sprinted in both of her career starts. She won’t be alone up front here, and she’ll have to try a much longer distance. These are questions that other solid options here don’t have to answer.
6- Princess Pinky
In her first start off a long layoff, she made up ground in the stretch but came up short in a photo with fellow runner Singular Sensation. However, that was a result of her competitor wilting after a tough duel, rather than her accelerating in the stretch. Michelle Nevin often succeeds with horses in their second start off of layoffs, and her form at a mile indicates that she’ll like the extra eighth of a mile. However, I see her competing for a minor prize before anything else.
Order: 8 3 7 6
Singular Sensation and Sharp Starr share alliterative names, and strike me as the two main contenders. Eloquent Speaker is just as talented as those two, but I’m afraid that she’ll struggle with the new distance and pace scenario. Princess Pinky could surprise me, but I only expect her to surprise me to a point.
Race 10
$40,000 Maiden Claiming for NY-Bred Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt
This isn’t a fantastic race by any stretch of the imagination, but horses dropping from maiden special weights make it a competitive contest for a claiming race. My top four:
5- Central Perk
She didn’t run at all in her debut, but gets class relief in her second start at the maiden claiming level. Linda Rice is excellent when dropping in class and adding blinkers, and all of that demonstrates that she’s attempting to win with this filly.
12- Choose Happiness
I’m not sure why, but I have a good feeling about this filly. Bill Mott drops her in class and cuts her back to a sprint distance, and while he’s not successful with every angle he’s attempting here, the combined effort is encouraging. John Velasquez sticks around after a poor turf attempt, which may indicate that this runner will take a step forward.
2- Adriatic Holiday
Of Barclay Tagg’s two-year-olds at Saratoga last year, this one was the most disappointing. However, she took a step forward in her first start off the layoff and gets some much needed class relief here. Junior Alvarado and Barclay Tagg work well together, and maybe this horse gets the job done here.
7- Gringotts
This runner’s best starts came in cheap maiden claiming races at Aqueduct, and her first start off the layoff was a non-competitive turf start. She returns here against some stiff competition, but could compete for a minor prize.
Order: 5 12 2 7
I would be wary of any horse coming out of this race, especially if the result is close at the end.