Saratoga Analysis: Wednesday, July 21, 2021

I just can’t seem to stay away. After a supremely deflating Haskell Stakes, in which a deserving winner was DQed and a fan favorite horse and jockey nearly died, it was either time for me to step away from racing or return to it in the hopes of finding some form of redemption. After a good deal of rain yesterday, let’s see what the Spa has to offer on this nondescript Wednesday morning.

Race 1 (CANCELED)

Jonathan Kiser Novice (Hurdles) for Four-Year-Olds and Upward, 2 1/16 Miles over Hurdles

3- The Mean Queen (Ire)

1- The Happy Giant

6- A Silent Prayer (Ire)

4- Fast Car

This race will likely be canceled or postponed due to inclement weather. The Mean Queen is only one of two runners in the field to have won a race in 2021, and she has won all three of her hurdle starts in impressive fashion. These races can be somewhat unpredictable, but she seems like a safe pick. The Happy Giant seemed to benefit from a cutback in distance last time out, winning comfortably at two miles at Tryon and defeating fellow runner Bodes Well by 23 lengths. She will step up in class here but appears sharp. A Silent Prayer may not have debuted until her five-year-old season, but she made up for lost time with two wins in four starts. My primary issue with her is that several runners in here are sharp and she may need a start after nine months on the shelf. Fast Car seems to have a class edge over many runners in this field and also has a win over the Saratoga hurdle course. That being said, I don’t have enough knowledge of the hurdling scene to judge her performance last time out, when she appeared to be a step slow going longer.

Race 2

$14,000 Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, Six Furlongs on the Dirt

6- Copa

2- Macho Boy

4- Democratic Values

5- Mission Wrapitup

The focal point of this race is a pair of runners dropping down sharply in class, one of which I’m buying into and one of which I’m fading. Back when he was in Dallas Stewart’s barn, Copa broke his maiden on his seventh try dropping into maiden claiming company at Fair Grounds and made it two in a row in his first start against winners. In his debut for Robertino Diodoro, he came up flat in a starter allowance and has been given some time off since. Diodoro likely shipped him up here for a reason, and in context, this level isn’t too dramatic, though the trainer will likely lose him. Democratic Values is the other dropper in the race for Rudy Rodriguez, but I see more warning signs in his form than his opponent’s. He seemed to be working into very sharp condition back in March before Rodriguez abruptly laid him off after his career best performance. Since his return to Belmont, he hasn’t been the same horse, and the drop seems to be an admission of defeat from the trainer. I’ve decided to put him third behind Macho Boy, who has put in some very solid efforts on wet tracks recently, including a front running score last time out. Amira Chicackly isn’t the type of trainer that wins at Saratoga, but a minor prize is within her grasp here. Mission Wrapitup is a perennial loser that may simply be fast enough to stay with these without passing.

Race 3 (UPDATE: OFF THE TURF)

$75,000 Maiden Claiming for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, 1 1/16 on the Mellon Turf

On the Turf:

9- Evvie Jets

1- Coalition Building

5- Peacebethejourney

2- Wow

Evvie Jets and Coalition Building are evenly matched contenders in this event, and one will likely go off at 3-2 and the other at 3-1. Both runners have developed a reputation for closing fast in maiden special weights without winning and both have proven effective at this distance and now drop slightly in class. Anthony Dutrow and Javier Castellano are obviously not as strong as the duo of Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz, but that’s the source of compensation in a fairly even matchup. Peacebethejourney is an interesting outsider that ran fairly well in maiden claiming competition last time out, staying well to take place for Jeremiah Englehart. She was claimed that day by Robert Falcone, who has fantastic numbers off the claim and short layoff, and she may have a pace advantage in what could be a slow race. Wow will likely try to work out the same trip as Evvie Jets and Coalition Building, but she’s had a few more tries than those two and hasn’t been as consistent lately.

Off the Turf:

8- Blue Lily

4- Empress Theodora

7- Superbloodwolfmoon

If rain takes this race off the turf, it becomes very difficult to handicap. Blue Lily is the only MTO in the race, and bettors will have to trust Wesley Ward’s second instinct that she is indeed a dirt horse after a poor turf start in her debut. Empress Theodora is a first time starter for Thomas Albertrani, and Luis Saez is an interesting pickup on both dirt and turf, though this filly only gains consideration in an event with several scratches. Superbloodwolfmoon runs like a greyhound, but she seems to appreciate wet tracks more than any other surface.

Race 4

Rick Violette Stakes (Ungraded) for NY-Bred Two-Year-Olds, Six Furlongs on the Dirt

1- Run Curtis Run

2- Barese (SCRATCHED)

5- Ready A.P.

3- Coinage

All five runners in this race are evenly matched, and only five distinct maiden races are needed to handicap the entire field because many of them have already raced each other. Run Curtis Run started her career with a very game dueling effort running outside of fellow runner Surprise Boss, in which she took to the slop well while wearing down her opponent on the rail. I appreciate when horses win dueling on the outside, and the experience over a wet track may come in handy today. Barese has not raced since May, which could end up being the factor that decides the race. Back then, she managed to defeat fellow runner Coinage, who came back to win her next start and earn a spot as a contender in this race. If Barese improves off the layoff, she’ll be very tough to beat, but there are always question marks after time off. Ready A.P. is the only newcomer in the race and arguably had the most impressive visual performance on debut. That being said, the 54 BSF she earned suggests that the field was likely much weaker than the one she’ll face here. She can still win though, as can Coinage, who is coming off a very impressive victory in her second start after finishing behind Barese back in May.

Race 5

$40,000 Maiden Claiming for NY-Bred Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt

3- Blind Sight (SCRATCHED)

7- Raffinity

5- Gallina

4- Live in Five

Raffinity is an extremely likely candidate in this race, but he was extremely likely in his last three starts and lost all three. At short odds, I feel compelled to look elsewhere. Blind Sight hasn’t run on the dirt since May 8, and her performance that day was fair and unremarkable. Under new trainer Miki Dini, though, I get the feeling that a plan is in the works. For the past two starts, she has run solidly on the turf and makes the switch back to dirt for her Saratoga debut. She may show a little more on dirt at a price. Gallina is a very reasonable pick considering Jimmy Bond’s hot start to the Saratoga meet, and she’s run fairly well in her two most recent dirt starts. My primary concern is that it seems as though she ran below her previous best last time out in order to stay in contention with a maiden claiming field. Live in Five is a first time starter, but she’s also the only four-year-old in the race, which is an odd factor that I thought I should include.

Race 6

$80,000 Maiden Special Weight for Two-Year-Old Fillies, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt

6- Let’s Be Clear

9- Next Tuesday

10- Take the Backroads

2- Morning Matcha

I narrowed this race down to the four most obvious candidates, as I believe they’re all legitimate contenders. Let’s Be Clear showed a lot without winning on debut, finishing well to catch Take the Backroads in the stretch with a 51 BSF. Brad Cox has been unstoppable at Saratoga thus far, and I expect his fortunes to continue. Next Tuesday and Morning Matcha both ran well in defeat to talented filly Mainstay at Monmouth in their first starts, but the latter ran better that day and should maintain her advantage without unforeseen improvement.

Race 7 (UPDATE: ON THE TURF)

$40,000 Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, 1 1/16 Miles on the Inner Turf

On the Turf:

10- Win d’Oro

7- Absam (SCRATCHED)

9- Prefect

8- Operative

2- Fair Haired Boy

Alright, this race is nigh impossible, so let’s make a deal. I’m going to pick five horses for this race, and I’ll make three of them contenders and two of them wild long shots. Do we have a deal, unwilling readers that have no choice in the matter? Alright, here we go.

Win d’Oro is a deceptive name for a horse that has had serious issues finding the wire in 11 lifetime starts. On this front, however, he isn’t alone here, as many of these have had trouble winning in the past. The important thing is that he’s fast, and his last few starts have been lost under highly compromising circumstances in which he performed well enough anyway. The drop in class should prove helpful. Absam will likely end up the favorite in this contest, and we don’t like favorites in these huge turf races. That being said, he has racked up some very impressive performances at higher levels of racing, and is nearly guaranteed to be in the mix late. Prefect has not won a race since 2019, but for once, I’m almost willing to excuse that for some incredible extraneous circumstances. In 11 lifetime starts, the poor horse has never gone off at odds lower than 10-1, and even against these deep fields, he has come dangerously close to a massive upset on several occasions. His likely odds in this race suggest that this is the weakest field he has ever faced, which could be just enough. 

On to the long shots now, and I have a quick story to tell. On June 24, my father, uncle, and I took a brief jaunt down to Delaware Park, and it was well worth the trip. It’s a lovely space for racing, reminiscent of Belmont in some ways, and any fan of the sport would take to it immediately. Anyway, while I was there, I fell in love with a 15-1 shot, Operative, who had back class in New York and was coming off a rough trip in his 2021 debut. When he swung into contention at the top of the stretch, only to get impeded and check back to seventh at the wire, I vowed in a fit of frustration to bet the horse no matter what in his next start. Truth be told, I didn’t think that next race would be at Saratoga, but a vow is a vow. This runner showed some solid form in New York last year before tailing off at the end of the season. In 2021, it may seem as though he’s lost all hope, but that isn’t true. He has simply had two nightmare trips that have prevented him from running. In his first start off the layoff, he checked and steadied on two separate occasions, and on the day that I saw him, he was impeded enough at the top of the stretch for jockey J.D. Acosta to launch an objection, though the stewards decided not to issue a disqualification. He may not be fast enough to win this race, but the point is that we don’t know, and at odds that should be extraordinarily high, he could prove to be a massive underlay. 

Fair Haired Boy is another interesting long shot that I have no vows to bet on, for better or worse. He seemed to be a promising turf runner down south as a two-year-old, and his first start of 2021, a sprint race in which he found his stride late, suggests that route distances are his preferred going. There’s reason to suspect improvement at long odds.

Off the Turf:

Don’t bet this race if it’s off the turf.

Race 8 (UPDATE: ON THE TURF)

$45,000 Optional Claiming for NY-Bred Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf

On the Turf:

10- Three Outlaws

6- Shiraz

12- Fast Getaway

7- Analyzethisandthat

This race is chock full of very hesitant winners, and I believe that three of them may be on very even standing at the wire. Three Outlaws seems to be rounding into form in a way that he never has previously, as he finally broke the N1X condition two starts back and came back strong with a place finish in his next outing. He delivered a big performance at Saratoga last year and seems to be headed in the right direction for new trainer Rob Atras. Shiraz is the best 4-for-38 horse I’ve ever seen, and always seems to run well without winning. He did come alive at Saratoga last year, however, so the top spot may once again be in reach. Fast Getaway is a perfectly named runner with early speed in his favor. If he wins this race, it will be on or near the pace, which seems like a very feasible way to do it.

Off the Turf:

11- Moonachie

8- Steam Engine

3- Power Up Paynter

1A- Bronx Bomber

Instead of fully breaking down this MTO dirt race, let’s talk about Finger Lakes shippers. I like them more than most, because the ones that come to NYRA tracks are often much faster than their cheap opponents, and therefore win often. Moonachie has won two of his last three, one at Aqueduct and one at Finger Lakes, and the only horse that defeated him was Ninth Hour, who racked up a ton of wins himself before shipping down to Belmont and winning there. Sometimes horses get into the habit of losing, which is why these shippers are so interesting. Moonachie doesn’t understand that he’s facing tougher competition at Saratoga; he just knows that he’s been in front a lot lately.

Race 9

$100,000 Optional Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Four Races, 1 1/8 Miles on the Dirt

2- Forza Di Oro

3- Highest Honors

1- West Will Power

7- American Dubai

This is an allowance in name only, as many of these runners are proven graded stakes competitors. Forza Di Oro may be a vulnerable favorite coming off the layoff for Bill Mott, but he sure looked like the goods by the end of last year. His win in the G3 Discovery was convincing, and the 102 BSF he earned only solidified his place as a horse on the rise. While he will likely get most of the betting attention, Highest Honors is another very promising runner with stakes ambitions going forward. After two years off, he returned to allowance competition, and while his first performance was dull, the second was much sharper. With cobwebs shaken out, it’s very likely that he takes another step forward here. West Will Power is the third big contender in the race after three solid performances earlier this year. He seems to get a little faster with each start and could easily take another step forward for Kelly Breen in his second start off the layoff.

Race 10 (UPDATE: OFF THE TURF)

$40,000 Maiden Claiming for NY-Bred Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf

On the Turf:

7- Sandor Clegane

4- Fast Gordon

10- Tempesta

5- Babagram

When someone says they’re going to get creative, it usually means they don’t know what they’re doing and will likely end up being wrong. So let’s get creative here. Sandor Clegane hasn’t raced since his two-year-old season, but I’m really fond of his only turf start back in October. He seemed to show a lot of promise dueling on the outside and holding well in the stretch, and the 57 BSF he earned as a juvenile is as good or better than what many in this field have earned as three- and even four-year-olds. He’ll have to improve slightly in his three-year-old debut, and the pace dynamics won’t allow him to take the lead himself, but he’s an interesting option at a price. Fast Gordon makes a ton of sense on paper dropping into maiden claiming comeptition, but Linda Rice has tried this move before with this runner, to no avail. He seems beatable at unappetizing odds. Tempesta has had 11 tries to break his maiden, and his performances dating back to last June have all been solid but not winning. I expect him to fight well for a minor prize. Babagram showed a great deal of early speed in his first start and held surprisingly well in a race that favored deep closers. That being said, there seems to be a lot of pace in this race and he may be compromised.

Off the Turf:

I’ll be doing something else. Maybe I’ll be riding a bike or getting a haircut or reading Lord of the Rings. I won’t be watching a bunch of statebred turf maidens limp around a muddy dirt track.