At three in the morning today, I was quietly mulling over some Travers news stories, when I noticed that TVG was airing Japanese horse racing. It was the only broadcast on at that time, and I noticed one quirk that I can’t really explain fully; the terminology they use to analyze the sport is completely different from what we use.
Now, perhaps this comes down to translation, but even in English, it was honestly difficult for me to follow along with what they were talking about, despite the fact that the racing is identical.
I suppose I’m mentioning this for two reasons. The first is that it’s a Wednesday, no one is reading this, and I need to fill some space. The second reason, however, is to remind readers that no adage is universal, and there may be more ways to look at horse racing than we could possibly imagine.
Even my language, the way that I analyze the horses, is based completely on the American handicappers that I’ve grown up around: family members and friends as well as well-known personalities like Beyer, Wolfendale, Kinchen, and for better or worse, Serling.
Now, I do think that Americans are on to something, because it seems that our system is one adjusted to racing based on speed and some nefarious training practices. Beyer’s speed figures for instance, were a revolutionary addition to the sport that have proved much less effective elsewhere in the world. Meanwhile, I don’t think Europeans have ever had to deal with a horse recently claimed by Dick Dutrow. However, there are probably some foreign thought processes that would work here, and yet, we’re not even aware of their existence.
The sport we love is a lot bigger than our North American borders, and I think it’s interesting to consider the idea that we know even less than we think we do. What better mindset to have before handicapping a card at Saratoga?
Note: First five are up, back five are coming.
Race 1 (OFF THE TURF, POSTPONED)
$50,000 Handicap for Four-Year-Olds and Upward, 2 1/16 Miles on Hurdles
So this is what an average hurdle race looks like. I’m used to stakes at Saratoga, and I now realize how spoiled we normally are to catch some excellent glimpses of this fringe equestrian sport. This race probably isn’t even the bottom of the barrel, but I’m never venturing deep enough into hurdling to find out. My top four:
1A- Elucidation (Ire)
Of all the runners in this race, this gelding is the only one with a victory this year. At least I can depend on him for a solid run, which is something I can’t really trust regarding the others.
2- New Member (Ire)
I actually won some money with this horse when he defeated fellow runner Mutasaawy back in 2018. That may seem like a hard thing to remember, but my file of past bets on hurdle racing is pretty thin. He was laid off for two years and returned last month, when he had to be pulled up and couldn’t finish the race. He gets class relief here, and Jack Fisher is one of the best, so I think this gelding can recover somewhat in his second start off the layoff.
3- Iranistan
He was well on his way back in 2018, rattling off four straight wins and going off as the favorite in some of the best hurdling stakes at Saratoga. He performed fairly well in those but has not returned in good order two years later. Even still, Jonathan Sheppard is a hurdle trainer that I know and this is a weak field by the looks of it.
1- Must See The Doc (GB)
This gelding performed well last year to win an allowance but finished behind fellow runner Elucidation in his first race of 2020. However, it’s reasonable to suspect that he can be competitive here in his second start off the layoff.
Order: 1A 2 3 1
Elucidation is the only runner with a recent victory, and there are several in here that have highly questionable form. New Member and Iranistan both have something to prove after two years off while Must See The Doc will have to improve a little.
Race 2
$16,000 Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races
Alright, this is the worst race I’ve seen at this meet so far. I know I complain a lot about race quality, and I suppose I deserve and occasionally embrace my uppity reputation, but there’s absolutely nothing here. I suppose it’s an inoffensive race by the standards of people used to betting at Parx or Laurel, but even those poor saps shouldn’t be subjected to this. Let’s get through it:
6- Naughty Prince
Usually, I don’t love these Wesley Ward runners fresh off their first starts. He really seems to send them out ready to fire, which means that their performances in those debuts are inflated and rarely duplicated in their next start. This is even more problematic here because this gelding won his first start and will have to face winners this time around. Still, based on the quality of the field, I have to consider him a contender. He also has a 391 Tomlinson for the distance, which is key.
5- The Joke’s On You
This gelding won his last start back in February to break his maiden. At 2-5 odds, he built an absurdly easy lead early on and did what he wanted from there. It wasn’t a competitive race, and I don’t love his chances of repeating off the layoff, but he has a 394 Tomlinson for the distance. Also, have I mentioned that he’s running against a terrible field?
2- Icy Dude
To break his maiden, Linda Rice shipped this gelding to Finger Lakes, where he was superior to some lower quality horses. If that’s what it took to get this horse a victory, then I hate the idea of betting on him at Saratoga. Linda Rice does get Jose Ortiz, however.
8- Mine the Coin
He benefited greatly from an insane speed bias in his last start, which explains the sudden improvement and makes it very difficult for me to take him seriously. I wouldn’t consider him at a sprint distance, and now he’s trying a mile and an eighth.
Order: 6 5 2 8
Put a number on my back and I think I could take some purse money here.
Race 3 (OFF THE TURF)
$64,000 Allowance for NY-Bred Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf
We now return to the land of the living with a very solid statebred turf sprint. There are several attractive options here, though I managed to find one I liked more than the others. My top four:
7- Freewheeler (SCRATCHED, OFF THE TURF)
I really love Todd Pletcher’s horses making their three-year-old debuts. He really seems to prepare the, well off layoffs, and he has a runner here that was very impressive at two. Before struggling in the Atlantic Beach, he went from a statebred maiden race to the G3 Futurity, where he finished second behind Breeders’ Cup runner Four Wheel Drive. He hasn’t raced since the Atlantic Beach, but honestly, I may just chalk that performance up to a switch to the Aqueduct turf, which I’ve attested to before as an extremely weird and particular surface. This colt loved Saratoga last summer in his debut, and in his return race, I think he’ll improve.
6- Three Outlaws
In his 2020 debut, this gelding definitely benefitted from a favorable trip, but he did exactly what he was supposed to do in that position and won easily with an 85 BSF. That was in open company and his first race for Rob Atras, and while Atras isn’t very good with turf sprinters, he’ll have to accommodate this one. It was nice to see him win off the layoff, and it’s very encouraging as he makes his second start here.
4- Luna’s in Charge
In his turf debut, this gelding performed well, finishing two lengths behind heavy favorite Maxwell Esquire in a race that he wasn’t supposed to win. It was yet another somewhat successful start for Philip Bauer, who’s now brought two runner-ups to Saratoga this meet. There’s no Maxwell Esquire in this race, but it is a competitive one in which he’s a contender.
5- More Graytful
In his turf debut, he performed well to finish fourth at this level at Belmont. My issue is that I don’t believe the level of competition he faced that day is as tough as the field he’s facing here. In addition, that performance was at seven furlongs and he’ll be shortening up here upstate. Brad Cox is excellent with turf sprinters and is adding blinkers, but I think this one will have to improve.
Order: 7 6 4 5 (This race is off the turf, and the 7, Freewheeler, is scratched.)
Freewheeler is coming off the layoff for Todd Pletcher and showed a lot of ability at two. I’m willing to forgive his poor start at Aqueduct and anticipate a good performance in his three-year-old debut. Three Outlaws and Luna’s in Charge displayed ability at this distance in their last starts, and I prefer Three Outlaws based on a speed figure I believe he can replicate. More Graytful will have to show me something at this distance against better competition before I can make a wager.
Race 4
Summer Colony Stakes (Restricted) for Fillies and Mares Four Years Old and Upward Which Have Never Won a Graded Sweepstake in 2020, 1 1/8 Miles on the Dirt
This is a compact stakes field that I really don’t mind. It seems like several of them are trying to find reprieve from graded stakes competition, while others are hoping to step into it. It’s a surprisingly interesting mix for a five-horse field, of which I found a fairly straightforward top four:
4- Nonna Madeline
There is a question of distance with this filly, but it’s not all that concerning, as she has a 405 Tomlinson and a very sensible trainer. Todd Pletcher seems to have prepared his runner well for this race, as she ran very well in her first start off the layoff to finish second behind Letruska, who’s given her trouble in the past. Still, the 92 BSF she earned was solid, and in her second start off the layoff, Pletcher is clearly testing her at a new distance with a freshener under her belt. Irad Ortiz takes the mount, and I really like her chances here.
2- Bellera
This filly was never going to defeat Dunbar Road last time out, but she ran surprisingly well on the front end and re-rallied to take third. It was a great performance for Todd Pletcher’s other filly in this race, and proved that she could handle this distance in a tougher spot than this one. She won at Saratoga on a biased and sloppy track, but it’s encouraging to see yet another victory at the distance. John Velasquez also returns to ride after winning the G3 Comely with her last year. She’s another serious contender.
1- Golden Award
I’m not really sure what to do with this filly. She’s been running in graded stakes competition for a long time now and has actually found a good deal of success, winning two graded stakes. However, her first start off the layoff was extremely discouraging, as she was pulled up and did not finish the race. Bill Mott is trying to find an easier spot for her, which is a move I consider a little too cautious. She’ll take a lot of money, and perhaps she deserves that based on some stellar past performances, but I don’t think I can trust her over Pletcher’s pair given her last start.
3- Always Shopping
Despite running against some tougher competition in the past, most recently Monomoy Girl in the G2 Ruffian, this filly has never earned a speed figure that could compete in this field. In addition, her only two dirt starts this year were profoundly disappointing. It’s difficult to take her in this spot.
Order: 4 2 1 3
I like both of Pletcher’s runners, and while they can easily be switched, I did prefer Nonna Madeline a tad more because of her preparation. Golden Award is extremely difficult to trust after a discouraging start off the layoff, but if she can return to some of her better races, she’ll win easily here.
Race 5
$62,000 Maiden Special Weight for NY-Bred Two-Year-Old Fillies, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt
I don’t know if there are any serious dangers in this race, but the mystery is part of the appeal with firsters. My top four:
7- Big Time Lady
I’m not totally certain, but I don’t think Rudy Rodriguez treats his Repole Stables firsters the same way he does his regular firsters. I realize that that’s a really tough hunch to wager on, but there are other reasons to suspect that Rodriguez is trying to win in a spot that he doesn’t normally put too much effort into. The presence of Irad Ortiz, for instance, is a very conspicuous move, and the filly has some buried workouts that demonstrate some ability. A 324 Tomlinson isn’t great and Big Brown isn’t anything special as a sire, but I don’t think the owners spent $100,000 because she has pretty eyes. I’ll take a stab in a race that’s not showing me much.
6- No Mo’ Spending
Ian Wilkes has been bringing consistently top-tier runners to Saratoga, which makes a toss under normal circumstances a necessary runner to consider. This filly’s first start was very bad from start to finish, but for whatever reason, Wilkes is shipping him up here and recruiting Javier Castellano to ride. There have been some zippy workouts lately and Uncle Mo is a special sire, which makes me think that she’s here for a reason.
8- Minerva Doubleplay
Robertino Diodoro hasn’t been too hot at Saratoga thus far, but he hasn’t had a chance to really get his two-year-olds going either. This one probably isn’t the best in his barn, but she has some reasonable workouts and was fortunately bred in the Empire State, which gives her a softer field than many of Diodoro’s firsters. She’s one to consider solely for the reason that the trainer tends to have his runners ready to go on first asking.
4- Mashnee Girl
Mark Hennig isn’t very good with first time starters, but this filly has some solid workouts. Hennig won with a firster at Belmont late in the meet and hired Jose Lezcano to ride that day. That’s about all there is to go on, but it’s something.
Order: 7 6 8 4
I’m taking a chance with Big Time Lady using the flimsy logic that Rudy Rodriguez is trying to win for Repole and Irad Ortiz. Ian Wilkes’ filly did little running in her first start, but the experience could make the difference for a filly running for a very focused trainer. Minerva Doubleplay and Mashnee Girl are two more options in a wide open race.
Race 6
$40,000 Allowance Optional Claiming for NY-Bred Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, 1 1/8 Miles on the Dirt
These horses are all old pros that really stand as the closest racing fans get to iron horses anymore. The only race once a month, but they’ve done so for years and will likely be around for many years to come. That’s a vaguely encouraging thought, isn’t it? My top four:
1- Twisted Tom
He’s had a very erratic career, from Belmont Stakes outsider to… well, his last start, when he was unambiguously disappointing. The excuse there was that race was tougher than the optional claimer he’ll be participating in today, and that’s helped along by the fact that he was six lengths faster than fellow runner Durkin’s Call two starts back. The reason I’m taking him, though, is that he’s one of two runners in this race that I believe are best suited to this distance. He’s five-for-ten at a mile and an eighth, and his last victory came back in January at this distance at Aqueduct. I wouldn’t say that he loves Saratoga, but he does have a win on the dirt up here. I think he’s worth a shot, and with I Love Jaxson scratched, his odds should travel up a bit.
3- Playwright
His last race was heavily compromised by a bad stumble at the start, and he still ran well enough to take fourth behind fellow runners Twisted Tom and Durkin’s Call. He was claimed by Linda Rice that day, who keeps Manny Franco aboard to ride. He’ll need to return with similar performances to the ones he was delivering before the layoff, but I think that’s likely after he recovered from bad racing luck last time out.
5- Control Group
I like this horse because he’s won six times in 14 attempts at this distance. He’s also three-for-five at Saratoga, and won in that exact situation in a $16,000 open company claiming race last time out. My concern then, is that his last race was a bit of a merry-go-round in which no one managed to make up or lose any ground throughout the race. It was still a great performance that could win here, but these are slightly deeper waters. That being said, he does want this distance, which makes him an asset.
6- Durkin’s Call
I don’t love the fact that Bill Mott dropped him in class last time out, and I really don’t love that Mertkan Kantarmaci claimed him and stepped him back up. He’s definitely a competent runner, but I think he’ll need to run faster if he wants to win against these.
Order: 1 3 5 6
I’m taking a small shot with Twisted Tom, though Playwright is growing on me every time I look back at the Form. Control Group is another solid contender, though I’m unsure about his last race. Those three are really the ones I’m considering here.
Race 7
$72,000 Maiden Special Weight for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt
This is a pretty solid maiden special weight, with several talented fillies squaring off after earning some decent speed figures elsewhere. However, there’s a picture perfect first time starter here as well, which makes the picture all the more interesting:
1- Black Magic Woman
I think Todd Pletcher has the real deal here. On paper, there’s not a single issue with this filly. Her workouts are stellar, her trainer is excellent with first time starters, she has a 380 Tomlinson, and Irad Ortiz is riding.
5- Harlem Heights
I really liked her performance in her three-year-old debut, in which she made a very nice four wide move and was outrun in the stretch by a runner getting an inside trip. Shug McGaughey doesn’t do too well with runners coming off of layoffs, which may indicate that she’s more talented than her last race. I expect her to take a step forward here.
7- Heavenly Sis
Since the layoff, this four-year-old has developed a bizarre closing style, giving the field a huge head start and flying late. It hasn’t worked yet in the search for her first victory, but she fits here based on her speed figures. Brian House hasn’t had much luck at Saratoga so far this meet, but he has a live horse here.
2- Soft N Lovely
For the fourth spot, I was stuck between this runner and Love On the Run. I preferred others in both cases, so I thought I’d include the Ignacio Correas first time starter because I’m vaguely curious about her as a wild card.
Order: 1 5 7 2
Against some very reasonable runners, I’m taking Pletcher’s first time starter because I can’t find a serious flaw beyond the likely odds. Harlem Heights and Heavenly Sis have both been very good on the track already, and both have solid chances here as well. Soft N Lovely is more of an outsider, but I’m not counting her out entirely.
Race 8
$50,000 Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 1/8 Miles on the Dirt
This is another very professional race and it’s more wide open as well. I don’t know if my top four is geared towards valued, but I’m fairly happy with it:
6- Super Dude
He may have lost to fellow runner Han Sense last time out, but visually, he was clearly the better runner as the only one making up ground in the stretch. He’s a very consistent runner that’s improved a little recently, and while he hasn’t found the winner’s circle lately, his performances have been very solid nonetheless. Irad Ortiz is taking the reins for Michael Maker, and I think he’s in an excellent position to win here.
2- Intrepid Heart
This former Belmont Stakes winner woke up a little down at Churchill to take a $62,000 optional claimer in professional fashion. I don’t have anything to say about that performance, except that it was very good and makes him a contender here. Todd Pletcher’s only won once with Ricardo Santana, but it was with this gelding. He’s certainly qualified, even if it’s only based on one performance.
7- Prompt
Have a lot of Bill Mott’s horses been dropping in class lately, or am I just making that up? It feels like a lot of his horses have been dropping and disappointing, and this one could join those ranks. After flying through allowance conditions, he tried graded stakes competition and began to regress dramatically with each start. He’s back in claiming competition now, and betting on him will really come down to whether a handicapper believes that a class drop will wake him up. At least he’s probably going the right distance.
8- Han Sense
I think bettors fell asleep on this horse last time out, because he was reasonably qualified to run well that day. He did, finishing second ahead of fellow runner Super Dude, albeit with a much more favorable trip. I think he’s certainly qualified to do well again, and it’s possible that I’m sleeping on him a little as well. That being said, Kelley Breen and Eric Cancel aren’t exactly winning connections up here.
Order: 6 2 7 8
Super Dude is my pick here, as I believe he’ll deliver as he has in every start this year. Intrepid Heart would be a bet based on one performance, but I have no reason to suspect it was a flash in the pan. Prompt is a very tough horse to take because of his recent steps back in performance. Han Sense defeated my top selection last time out, but I think he’s a little more dependent on a good trip.