For this Wednesday card at Saratoga, I’ll be providing a streamlined analysis. The first reason for that is because this card is a little light and doesn’t really need too much depth.
The second is that my sister and Paddy’s Picks staff writer, Emma Moquin, will be moving into her dorm at Penn State University today, and I’ll be working remotely. Let’s take a look:
Race 1
Michael G. Walsh Novice for Four-Year-Olds and Upward, 2 3/8 Miles over Hurdles
1- Snap Decision
In my very limited knowledge of hurdle racing, he’s been the best runner going back to last year. That’s almost certainly not the case, but he only seems to win, and I don’t have the handicapping wherewithal with jumpers to go against him.
2- Fast Car
His last victory seems like a statement victory against a weaker field, which qualifies him well for a start like this one. Jack Fisher’s brought a few winners to Saratoga already, and while this one will need to handle the class hike, I think he’ll transition to the next level well.
4- Galway Kid (Ire)
He nearly knocked off Snap Decision in his last start, and he seems to be entering this comeptition in very sharp condition. That being said, it’s more likely that Snap Decision regresses than this runner improves enough to win.
9- Go Get the Basil
This gelding won his last start for Jonathan Sheppard against Court Ruler, a horse that outran his odds last time out to win his next start at Saratoga. Based on that, I don’t see why he can’t fight for a minor prize here.
Order: 1 2 4 9
Race 2
$62,000 Maiden Special Weight for NY-Bred Two-Year-Old Fillies, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
3- Ruby Stiletto
The fact that Jose Ortiz is riding for Rudy Rodriguez is a very big deal here, because they rarely work together and only do so with live runners. This filly has been working very well in the morning and has a 381 Tomlinson for the distance to boot. She’s the one to beat on first asking.
1- Stimulus Check
The last time low-tier trainer Greg Matties fielded a first time starter was at the 2019 Belmont Fall Meet, and Cat Lady Steph paid $58 that day. Matties bred and owns this filly, her workouts are fine, and she has a 404 Tomlinson at the distance. Toss her at your own risk.
4- Siesta Kew
Michael Maker isn’t very good with firsters and this filly has a 315 Tomlinson for the distance. However, Irad Ortiz is riding, and it’s a small field where a competent trainer can make the difference.
5- Jill’s a Hot Mess
This filly has undergone two trainer changes in three races, and is finally getting back-to-back starts with a single trainer, Eric Guillot. She’s raced three times, which is far more experience than her fellow runners making their first starts. However, she hasn’t shown too much, even for this level. I believe she’ll be overbet.
Order: 3 1 4 5
Race 3
$72,000 Maiden Special Weight for Two-Year-Old Fillies, 1 1/16 Miles on the Inner Turf
1- Ingrassia
1A- Reina Del Sol
Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz team up on Ingrassia in her first start, and Brown is one of the few trainers with good statistics debuting over a mile. The horse hasn’t been lighting it up the work tab, but does have a 351 Tomlinson for the distance. Bill Mott’s firster with Junior Alvarado is an added bonus in the entry.
5- Stunning Princess
This filly ran impressively in her first start, establishing a clear lead and carrying it into the stretch before settling for second. Danny Gargan is very good with maidens making their second start, and Joel Rosario is a rare but meaningful pickup for the trainer, especially with runners coming from Bill Mott and Christophe Clement in this race.
2- Mo Normal
It’s not great to see Irad Ortiz leave this Christophe Clement trainee, but there’s nothing to complain about from her first start. She finished fourth and probably picked up a thing or two, and she still has a 401 Tomlinson for the distance. David Cohen is a weird jockey for Clement, but this runner can improve.
3- Tinder Date
Michael Maker doesn’t get Irad Ortiz to ride this firster, and that’s somewhat telling. He’s not great with firsters anyway, so this one may just need a race.
Order: 1/1A 5 2 3
Race 4
$12,500 Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 1/8 Miles on the Dirt
6- Curlin Grey
It’s true that this gelding has a bit of a problem finding the winner’s circle, but I don’t think that was the case last time out. On a speed favoring track, he ran very well but was simply defeated by Walkoff sitting a perfect trip. It seemed like he was interested, but that wasn’t his day. Luis Saez stays to ride here for Joe Sharp, and I like his chances here.
2- Hoffenheim
I’ve bet this runner in two straight starts and he’s been profoundly disappointing. However, there’s a bit more to like this time around. He enters the barn of Wayne Potts, who recruits Tyler Gaffalione, his preferred Kentucky jockey. He’s still training well despite his troubles racing, but the fact that he hasn’t won since 2018 is becoming more and more concerning.
5- Street Trust
If I had to pick between this one and Scarf It Down, I would hesitantly go in this direction because of their race against one another two starts back. They did have a rematch since, but that race was a wash controlled on the front end. Their race back in June is more important, because I think this gelding got the tougher trip coming off a layoff and still only came up short by half length for second. I think he’s improved since, and this will be a good opportunity to demonstrate that.
1- Majid
I’m only including this runner because he’s going to be the pace presence, and in a small field, that fact alone could win a race for a horse. However, on paper, he seems to be just about done, and he’ll be overbet on his past form that is no longer really applicable to his current ability.
Order: 6 2 5 1
Race 5
$40,000 Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 1/16 Miles on the Mellon Turf
8- Financial System
6- Mick’s Star
4- Golden Decision
3- Willing to Speed
Order: 8 6 4 3
Financial System is a big favorite on top here, but from there, things might get a little unpredictable. Golden Decision and Willing to Speed are more outsiders I happened upon, but I have some more conviction about Mick’s Star given his recent form routing at Churchill.
Race 6
$74,000 Allowance for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, 1 Mile on the Inner Turf
7- Kitten by the Sea
3- In Front
9- Balon Rose
4- Joyous Times
Order: 7 3 9 4
Most of these horses just faced off against one another last time, and Kitten by the Sea has the best chance of improving second time off the layoff. In Front is some new blood in here, and I really like the last start defeating Dovima. Balon Rose and Joyous Times are always dependable for a solid run.
Race 7
$64,000 Allowance for NY-Bred Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt
5- Quickflash
7- Big Thicket
2- Blackjack Davey
1- Golani Brigade
Order: 5 7 2 1
This is the toughest race on the card, because I don’t really love any of the runners for the top spot. Quickflash is my hesitant first pick, because I feel that he’s in the best recent form. Big Thicket’s been tailing off ever since he stepped up to this level, and Blackjack Davey may need some more time to adjust. I’m probably disrespecting Golani Brigade off the long layoff for Chad Brown, but I’ll be against him at my own risk.
Race 8
Bolton Landing Stakes (Ungraded) for Two-Year-Old Fillies, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf
6- Tobys Heart
8- Amanzi Yimpilo (Ire)
2- Joy’s Rocket
5- Sassy Hannah
Order: 6 8 2 5
Tobys Heart ran one of the fastest juvenile races of the year to break his maiden, and that makes him a pick I can’t deny in this spot. However, Wesley Ward really knows how to place his two-year-olds, so I wouldn’t trust the first start Beyer that Amanzi Yimpilo earned. I think she’s better than that. Joy’s Rocket and Sassy Hannah seem like the type that could fight for a minor prize, though the latter may be hurt by a potentially hot pace up front.
Race 9
$40,000 Maiden Claiming for NY-Bred Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, 1 Mile on the Inner Turf
8- Women Not Easy
9- Brovia
5- Eighty Seven North
3- Sandra’s Mine
Order: 8 9 5 3
This race is of very poor quality, but Women Not Easy and Brovia are relatively lightly raced and could take a step forward against a weak field. Eighty Seven North and Sandra’s Mine, however, are very proven and capable of little more than show money in my estimation.