A standard day at the track is better than most days elsewhere. This card doesn’t offer anything special beyond the G2 Adirondack, but there’s very little else that I’d rather be doing today. Let’s take a look.
Race 1
$48,000 Allowance for Four-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, 2 1/16 Miles over Hurdles
Hurdlers! My top four:
5- Brianbakescookies
Hey, I remember this guy! Sometimes it’s cool to look at these hurdle races and see a familiar face, because this gelding was a part of the New York circuit for a long time a few years back. Unbeknownst to me, he’s taken up a career in hurdling, and through steady progress, he seemed to put the pieces together last year. He made his 2020 debut back in June in his first test against winners, finishing second by a neck, two lengths ahead of fellow runner Anticipating. Fisher is an excellent trainer that’s very effective off a short break, and I think this runner is ready to go here.
3- Zoom Zoom Zoe (Ire)
Jonathan Sheppard is entering a younger filly to take on these seasoned veterans, and although she only has the one victory to go off of, it was an impressive five-length victory. I’m not really a qualified hurdling handicapper, but I appreciate ambition in any form, and to enter this filly in this race indicates that Sheppard, an extremely talented trainer, thinks he has a solid runner.
1- Markhan (SCRATCHED)
1A- Global Freedom (GB)
I don’t really love either half of this entry, as neither runner has won recently despite making fairly regular starts. In Markhan’s case, he has been facing much tougher competition lately and this race represents some class relief. However, I feel that the entry will be overbet and may be worth taking a shot against.
2- Court Ruler
After a very nice maiden victory last year, this gelding made his six-year-old debut last June, finishing second by a length. The connections are poor, so it’s not as easy to trust their skills in preparing this runner, but he seems to have ability on his own that may carry him here.
Order: 5 3 1/1A 2 (Note: The 1, Markhan, is scratched.)
Brianbakescookies seems to have the best recent form, and in a race against horses with little experience or too much of it, he seems poised to break through for Jack Fisher. Zoom Zoom Zoe is the only filly in the race, but I really appreciate Jonathan Sheppard’s placement for her. Markhan is the main attraction in the entry, as he’ll get class relief after a tough loss to Snap Decision last time out. Court Ruler is a very capable runner that lacks the training edge that the other three have.
Race 2
$62,000 Allowance Optional Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt
This is a highly competitive, but unfortunately diminutive, field of five runners. Three of them are very solid allowance horses, but two of them will have to improve while the other one simply has to remain consistent. My top four:
1- Tiz He the One
I’m struggling to find a way around this gelding, so I won’t try. After finishing six lengths behind Firenze Fire in the G3 General George, Linda Rice put him on the shelf and brought him back at the optional claiming level at Belmont. In a very tough field, he outran his odds, finishing third behind highly touted runners Fortin Hill and Amundson. Competition like that cannot be found in this race, and while it isn’t impossible that one of them takes a step forward to contend, this runner’s last performance makes him the only one entering at the top of his game.
4- Gun It
This is the first of several runners that will need to return to some of his better races, but I don’t think it’s inconceivable here. Back in February, this colt turned in the performance of a lifetime, finishing second behind Silver Dust in the G3 Mineshaft at 30-1 odds. He couldn’t follow up in the New Orleans Handicap, but that was an impossibly tough race for the best of them. He took some time off and returned in a tough optional claiming race at Churchill in May, finishing third behind Fearless and Top Seed. His next start was still against a competitive field, and a stumble at the start effectively took him out of the race. Steve Asmussen remains hopeful of his runner’s chances and ships him to Saratoga, shortening him to a sprint but keeping him at the same level. I suspect that he may improve with two recent starts and a 387 Tomlinson for the distance, though I’m not sure if it will be enough.
5- Strike That
If this gelding can return to his race back in March, then he can compete here. That day at Oaklawn, he really showed out in an allowance field to win going away by five lengths. He took a step back in a defeat to future G1 Vanderbilt winner Volatile, and Robertino Diodoro gave him time off. He returned last month in his Saratoga debut and ran very well, finishing second behind Cerretalto by a length. If he runs that race, he’ll lose here, but the angle is that he’ll improve second off the layoff, something Diodoro is usually excellent with. The issue, of course, is that his trainer hasn’t been good at anything at this meet, and he’d really need to be at the top of his game in order for me to go against Tiz He the One. It is likely, however, that he can control the pace, which makes him more dangerous than I may be giving him credit for.
3- Releasethethunder
I really like this colt’s last start at the $50,000 claiming level, when he controlled the race handily in the stretch to win by nearly four lengths. Ray Handal claimed him from Christophe Clement that day, and that’s not the worst angle as long as it’s concerning a dirt horse. My main issue is that he simply seems a little out of his depth here, though I don’t doubt his ability to put forth his best effort.
Order: 1 4 5 3
I’m very intrigued by both Gun It and Strike That as runners that could potentially improve, but they both have some question marks that make them difficult to take. Tiz He the One doesn’t really have such problems, and in his second race off the layoff, it’s even possible that he takes a step forward against a slightly softer than the one he faced last time out.
Race 3
$40,000 Maiden Claiming for NY-Bred Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf
This is a pretty bad race, but we’ll get through it together, alright? My top four:
7- Money in the Bank
After getting mixed results at Colonial last year, Robert Bailes claimed this gelding off of Dane Kobiskie and put him on the shelf. He returned in June at Belmont running six furlongs, and performed well off the layoff to take second behind fellow long shot Go Rudy Go. Now he’s made another move to Edmund Davis’ barn, and the knocks against Davis as a trainer are well-documented by this point. However, his entry here is making all the right moves, right down to a cutback to five and a half furlongs, a distance he seemed to appreciate last year at Ellis Park and Colonial.
2- Fluent In Sarcasm
Michael Maker and Irad Ortiz deserve favoritism in this race on name recognition alone, but their gelding isn’t exactly a world beater. Maker’s had him for three starts now and he’s been competitive in two of them but hasn’t yet come close to the winner’s circle. This field is somehow worse than the ones he’s been facing, but as a favorite, I’ll take a shot against him.
4- Daring Disguise
Jimmy Bond has been having an excellent Saratoga meet, and he has another solid contender in this haphazard race. However, while the other three have some experience running at this shorter sprint distance, this gelding has only gone longer. It might not be the end of the world given his 375 Tomlinson, but it’s enough to scare me away in a race where the runners can’t really be trusted with sudden change.
6- Shandian
14-race maidens trained by Amira Chicackly should really be avoided at all costs, but she’s certainly fielded worse runners that this in her short time taking over for Gary Contessa. This colt can easily compete for a check here, as he seems to turn in good performances at odd times.
Order: 7 2 6 4
Money in the Bank actually intrigues me quite a bit, so expect him to be up the track running on three legs by the end. Fluent in Sarcasm is obviously qualified under Michael Maker, but he’s definitely at short odds. Daring Disguise is being entered by one of the hottest trainers at Saratoga right now, but I’d like to see him get a start at this distance before I wager. Shandian is a wild card that’s too inconsistent to support.
Race 4
$12,500 Claiming for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
This appears to be a two-horse race in which one of the contenders is significantly faster than the other. So more of a walkover really, though it clearly isn’t as cut and dry as that. My top four:
7- Radiantrithym
She’s had a tough time finding the winner’s circle lately, but she’s supremely qualified in this spot. Her speed figures are significantly better than every other runner’s outside of Friend of Liberty, and even then, she’s still much faster. Linda Rice claimed her off Gary Gullo last time out after losing her back in February, and Jose Ortiz returns to ride. She’s very, very tough to beat here.
3- Friend of Liberty
If someone’s going to defeat the favorite, it’s this mare, but I don’t see it. Linda Rice also trains this runner and retains Jose Lezcano, which is a good thing and a bad thing. Jose Ortiz is riding Rice’s other horse, and as the two most qualified runners in the race, she’ll likely instruct her jockeys not to compete with one another. However, she simply isn’t fast enough to keep up based on her last few performances. Second place should be secure, but first seems out of reach.
2- Fair Lassie
Relative unknown Bruce Grossman enters this filly dropping in class, which gives her some merit. However, he’s never worked with a Tyler Gaffalione before and appears slow anyway.
6- Tied Up
This mare cleaned up last summer at Finger Lakes, winning all six of her starts. She lost her only start of 2020 and Jeffrey Englehart ships her up to Saratoga. At least she adds some variety to proceedings.
Order: 7 3 2 6
Linda Rice has both bullies in this race, and I expect both of them to run to expectations. From there, very little is appealing to me in a race full of outsiders.
Race 5
$75,000 Maiden Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 1/16 Miles on the Mellon Turf
Unless you’re really into hurdle racing, this is arguably the first interesting race of the day. There are a lot of interesting angles and runners are coming from all over the country. This makes them difficult to compare, but it gives the handicapper more to mull over. My top four:
7- Gunman
This gelding was part of a Todd Pletcher entry last weekend but was scratched. I thought he was the more interesting one of the pair, and I like his chances here. Todd Pletcher has been excellent developing his runners from two to three, and thus gelding’s one start at two was promising, a third-place finish behind talented turf sprinter Turned Aside. He has a 385 Tomlinson for this route distance and John Velasquez returns to ride. I’m very interested at a price.
3- Digital Software
Chad Brown, Klaravich, Irad Ortiz, a pair of 74 BSFs in very live races, and a drop to maiden claiming competition. I’m not betting him to lose; I’m simply betting Gunman to win.
4- Scanno
This ridgling clearly has ability and has rattled off so many solid speed figures since his two-year-old season. His big issue, however, is that he’s simply run too well to lose on several occasions, and after 11 starts, I’m starting to lose hope. He’s probably overmatched here anyway.
1- Chocolate Bar (SCRATCHED)
1A- Freedom Force
I don’t really care for either one of these runners, but they do have merit. Chocolate Bar’s first start off the layoff at Churchill was solid, while his follow-up performance was terrible, which makes him a mixed bag. Freedom Force is the more attractive option based on his only turf start. It was in a Florida-bred maiden special weight, but it was much more than that. He finished fourth behind Venezuelan Hug, Shamrocket, and Mystery Bank, who all went on to win their next starts and begin very promising turf careers. I think he’ll have to improve, but he’s had several months to do so for a very good trainer.
Order: 7 3 4 1/1A (Note: The 1, Chocolate Bar, is scratched.)
Digital Software is the type of horse that wins this race, and I feel a little silly going against him. However, Gunman strikes me as a very promising runner that Todd Pletcher has been waiting for some time to start, and this is the spot he chose. I think he’ll take a step forward in his three-year-old debut. Scanno always runs well in defeat, so I’m making the bold prediction that he runs well in defeat here. The entry of Chocolate Bar and Freedom Force is somewhat interesting here, but I think there are more attractive options.
Race 6
$64,000 Allowance for NY-Bred Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races
For me, this race really comes down to a heavy favorite, and one other runner that has a small chance of upsetting her. My top four:
7- Eloquent Speaker (SCRATCHED)
This filly had a very favorable trip last time out and it definitely helped her chances. That being said, it demonstrated that she could handle a longer distance, and her speed figures in her two most recent starts are superior to those of her competitors. Irad Ortiz and Jeremiah Englehart have the one to beat here.
6- Kinky Sox
I know that this mare has been facing easier competition than some of her fellow runners recently, but she gets an edge here because she’s won often in recent starts. The competition has been lighter, but she’s done her job professionally on several occasions, and with speed figures that are competitive with the other contenders in this race, I’d prefer a runner with a winning mentality, even if she’s not quite as strong as the heavy favorite.
1- Shesasuperfreak
She hasn’t won a race in the past two years, which is obviously problematic in a sport where winning is sort of important. However, she’s been running well for a while now, so I can’t toss her completely from my top four because she could very well contend for a minor prize. She’s definitely worth consideration underneath.
5- Bustin Scones
Amira Chicackly and Benny Hernandez team up for this runner that hasn’t won a race since 2018. She’s another won that will likely contend without winning in this spot.
Order: 7 6 1 5 (Note: The 7, Eloquent Speaker, is scratched.)
Eloquent Speaker is far and away the best runner in this field, and Kinky Sox would have to improve to have a chance of bringing her down. Shesasuperfreak and Bustin Scones are the other two contenders in the race, and neither runner wins often, which only solidifies the favorite’s place on top.
Race 7
$62,000 Maiden Special Weight for NY-Bred Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 Mile on the Inner Turf
This is a very competitive race, and it’s nice to see that there’s one division in New York that regularly has full fields. There are a lot more contenders than I can mention in my top four, but I do feel confident in the ones that I’ve included:
12- Sandro the Great
Christophe Clement has been desperate to get this runner on the turf, but two of his three starts have been rained off. His one turf race was in an open company maiden special weight, where he ran well to finish fifth behind Shamrocket. This statebred race is significant class relief after that start, and the distance shouldn’t be much of an issue either. Joel Rosario and Clement have been running Saratoga this meet, and they have the pick here.
10- Voliero
In two turf starts this year, this gelding has run well on both occasions against statebred competition. Her most recent turf start was a runner-up performance behind Barleewon and ahead of fellow runner Mundacious, and I think Jimmy Bond will have his horse prepared to build on that success this time around.
7- Scuttlebuzz
Jonathan Thomas has been killing me lately, but he has another live runner here. After nearly breaking his maiden off the layoff in a turf sprint, Thomas made a strange decision and tried to stretch him out to a route distance in his next start, that race was rained off the turf, but he proves that the stretchout was genuine by going back to it here. That dirt start may have helped him get some wind into him for a similar race on turf, and he should be able to build on the good performance off the layoff back in June.
2- Tackle
I usually like to give Bill Mott’s firsters a race, but they’ve been performing very well lately and this one fits the mold. Junior Alvarado rides and he’s been very quick in the morning, so it’s possible that he responds for his usually patient trainer on first asking.
Order: 12 10 7 2
I really like Sandro the Great in his second turf start for Christophe Clement, as he’s the only one in the field getting class relief. Voliero and Scuttlebuzz aren’t far off, however, and I’m not counting either one of them out completely when I go to make a bet here. Tackle is dangerous because Bill Mott’s been sending his firsters out to win recently.
Race 8
$74,000 Allowance for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, 1 1/8 Miles on the Dirt
7- Candy Tycoon
If I had this horse in my top four for the G3 Peter Pan, I have to like him here, right? In that tough spot fresh off a layoff, he stumbled at the start and never really got going, finishing seventh by 21 lengths behind Country Grammer and Caracaro, two Travers Stakes runners. He was doing very well before the break, however, and will make his second start after time off for Todd Pletcher, who gets him some class relief here. Hopefully he can get a little closer here and capitalize on what should be a reasonable pace up front.
4- Lil Commissioner
This gelding’s first race off the layoff was excellent, as he pulled away to win by four lengths with an 87 BSF. Rob Atras steps him up in class here but he very much belongs here. In fact, with the addition of Irad Ortiz, he may be in an even more preferable situation. His running style nearly guarantees him a solid trip, and he’s a very deserving favorite here.
8- Singapore Trader
This is the other tough older horse in the field, and his first race off the layoff was very solid for new trainer Horacio DePaz, who’s had terrible luck at this Saratoga meet (six seconds in nine starts). Ricardo Santana takes the mount once more, and while he’ll have to improve to win here, that could very well happen in his second start off the layoff.
3- Liveyourbeastlife
Like Candy Tycoon, this colt will be trying older horses for the first time here, and he improved enough in his last start to qualify him here. Utilizing an uncontested lead, he nearly pulled off a major upset of talented three-year-old Creed in an optional claiming contest. He won’t get that trip again and Luis Saez has left to ride fellow runner Unrighteous, but this isn’t a huge stretch for this Jorge Abreu trainee.
Order: 7 4 8 3
My feel for this card is tenuous at best, but I’m going to take a shot here with Candy Tycoon against Lil Commissioner, as I believe he’s been prepared well by Todd Pletcher to tackle older competition. Singapore Trader is also very intriguing as well entering his second start off the layoff. Liveyourbeastlife and Unrighteous are two three-year-olds that will have to improve to compete.
Race 9
Adirondack Stakes (G2) for Two-Year-Olds, Six and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt
Underwhelming juvenile stakes are better than underwhelming statebred maiden claiming races, I suppose. These are always fun for me to handicap regardless of their quality, and I actually think there are a few promising runners here despite the small field. My top four:
4- Thoughtfully
Steve Asmussen sure has some talented two-year-olds, doesn’t he? The speed figure doesn’t really show it, but in this filly’s first start, she dominated a maiden field at Churchill by nearly nine lengths. I like runners that have been given time to improve in races like this, and I also like to see horses that have shown ability to rating. This one checks all of those boxes, and I think she’ll take a big step forward here.
2- Make Mischief
This filly turned a few heads last time out, improvising dramatically to finish second in the G3 Schuylerville with a 70 BSF. Mark Casse can’t seem to buy a win at Saratoga this meet, and I have a knock on his runner here as well. She’s already taken a step forward while I feel that others in this race haven’t yet done so. Therefore, she would have to take another step forward to stay on top of these, and I think it’s more likely that others will improve to beat her. Still, she’s a proven commodity, and that can’t be undersold.
5- Lucifers Lair
I’m not sure if this filly took down the most quality field in her first start, because a 57 BSF and a three-length win don’t always go hand in hand. However, she did prove much the best that day, notching yet another victory for the connection of Todd Pletcher and Irad Ortiz. He’s raced more recently than fellow runner Thoughtfully and didn’t run as well, but improvement with these two-year-olds occurs rapidly, so I’m not counting her out completely.
6- Beautiful Farewell (SCRATCHED)
I appreciate Michael Stidham’s ambituon here, because her first start is still very promising. She ran against boys that day, and while the field wasn’t particularly live, she gave a good account of herself. In her second start, she disappointed with a different running style, but didn’t get the best trip. The effect of that poor start is lessened somewhat by the fact that Stidham feels confident enough to enter her as a maiden in this graded stakes. Joel Rosario steps in for Javier Castellano, and maybe she improves enough to take down a field that I don’t necessarily see as being too tough.
Order: 4 2 5 6 (Note: The 6, Beautiful Farewell, is scratched.)
Make Mischief is the horse to beat, but I believe Thoughtfully and Steve Asmussen have what it takes to take her down here. Lucifers Lair won professionally for Todd Pletcher first time out and also has a reasonable chance. Meanwhile, Beautiful Farewell is a strange maiden runner that may just be here for a reason.
Race 10
$25,000 Maiden Claiming for NY-Bred Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Six and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt
9- Mia Bea Star
Listening to Maggie Wolfendale’s assessment when this filly made her first start, it’s understandable why David Donk tried her on the turf. She looks like a turf horse with a dirt pedigree. Well, the appearance hasn’t worked out, so it looks like he’s trying the pedigree now, and I’m admittedly interested. She doesn’t have a recorded workout since June, but has raced twice since. Donk clearly thinks highly of her, as he recruited Irad Ortiz to ride her first time out and gets Jose Ortiz here in a maiden claiming race. On top of that, Maggie was right when she said that the pedigree pointed to dirt: she has a 438 Tomlinson for the distance. On a day where I don’t have much of a feel yet and don’t like anything in the race, I think it may be time to take a chance on something. Let’s go nuts.
4- Mebs Web
In her first start off the layoff, this filly took a small step forward to finish third in a race at this level with a 52 BSF. It was a highly competitive figure for a race like this, and if she can replicate such a performance in her second start off the break, she’ll be tough to beat here. However, she has been a little inconsistent over the course of her career, and Eric Cancel and Nick Zito aren’t exactly a winning connection.
8- Gringotts
She’s been a pretty consistent runner lately, and that’s impressive given some toug luck she had last time out. She broke badly from the gate and started near the back, making up ground to finish well behind fellow runner Mebs Web. My issue, however, is that she’s had a lot of gate trouble in the past outside of this start, and while she’s a competent runner in this spot, she’s not the most reliable investment if she can take herself out of the race as soon as the bell rings.
6- Deeply Analytical
What does it mean when Klaravich switches trainers away from Chad Brown. For this runner, I don’t think it’s a good thing. She tried the turf once last year and faded late, and she hasn’t raced since for new trainer Jorge Abreu. She’s trying dirt at a much lower level, and I think she’ll be overbet because of her connections.