After a brief hiatus, Paddy’s Picks is back with analysis for a very solid card at Saratoga. There’s nothing too memorable in display here, but at the same time, there are few better ways to spend a weekday than looking at a competitive card. Let’s take a look.
Race 1
$40,000 Claiming for Three-Year-Old Fillies, 1 1/16 Miles on the Inner Turf
This is a rather nondescript contest, to the point that I’ve had to reach a little to form a top four. However, the contenders are legitimitate, so it shouldn’t be a complete wash. My top four:
4- Sugar Fix
This filly may be shipping from Delaware for Karl Grusmark, but in this field, she fits extremely well. In seven turf starts this year, she’s won an astounding six times, in fields of varying quality in which she wasn’t always favored. Now, in an interesting turn, she’ll actually be a potential favorite at Saratoga, and based on her speed figures and recent performances, I think she’ll do well here.
7- Little Red Frog
She’s been competent on turf in two longer sprints in her career, and Michael Maker stretches her out to a route distance for her Saratoga debut. Irad Ortiz is replacing Jorge Vargas, which is a huge deal in its own. I would’ve liked to see a start or two at this distance, but I can trust the connections and take a small chance here.
5- New Day Dawning
At Gulfstream and then at Churchill earlier this year, she’s been running a little out of her depth, finishing seventh in both starts. Joe Sharp is ice cold at Saratoga, but finds his filly a little class relief and recruits Luis Saez to ride. She’s been training well recently and it’s very possible that she does better in this spot.
3- Lookin Dynamic
I don’t usually care for runners switching surfaces for the first or second time against experienced runners, but I’m tied for options in this race and Michael Trombetta has been on his game at the meet thus far. His filly here isn’t anything special on the dirt, but she’s held her own at a lower level of racing than the one she’ll compete at here. On the other side, if she was entered on dirt, there wouldn’t really be a reason for Trombetta to bring his horse upstate. I like the effort and the surface switch, and while he may just be giving his horse a freshener off the layoff, I’ll consider it. He is a profitable trainer when switching surfaces, and crazier things have happened up here.
Order: 4 7 5 3
Sugar Fix seems to be a little bit better than Little Red Frog and New Day Dawning, and I’ll take a chance on the shipper in a race that I believe comes down to three key turf contenders.
Race 2
$40,000 Claiming for NY-Bred Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
This is another race that doesn’t appear to be particularly strong, to the point that I’m considering a first time starter over many experienced runners. My top four:
9- Senrima
Rudy Rodriguez is pulling out all the stops here. He’s excellent when dropping horses down to the maiden claiming level, and he’s even better adding blinkers. On top of that, he’s recruited Irad Ortiz to replace Jorge Vargas in this runner’s second start off the layoff. He’ll also be cutting back to a sprint distance, which isn’t such a good angle for Rodriguez, but does seem to suit the gelding that likely prefers it. The only issue is that he did very little running against tougher horses, but based on the connections, I really like this runner here.
8- Not Above Me
Chad Brown doesn’t often debut his runners at the maiden claiming level, especially when that horse was purchased for $710,000 at auction. However, he’s still successful when he does it, because of course he is. I don’t love anyone in this field, so I’ll take a shot on an expensive first time starter with reasonable workouts and a 358 Tomlinson for the distance.
1- Unrelenting Force
Ray Handal claimed this gelding earlier in the year, and he must have thought highly of him, because he immediately stepped him back up into a maiden special weight. In his first race off a short layoff, he’ll be stepping back down in class and cutting back to a sprint distance, something that Handal does very successfully. Manny Franco is a strange jockey addition, but I think this gelding has a fair chance here.
3- Royal Suspect
Bruce Levine stumbled on a NY-bred out in California and brought him back to Belmont. That maiden special weight start didn’t go too well, but he drops in class here and cuts back in distance, which makes him much more appealing. Levine’s not really a great trainer but has been doing well recently, and I’ll throw this gelding in as a contender in a pretty weak field.
Order: 9 8 1 3
Senrima and Not Above Me make up a fairly clear exacta bet. Unrelenting Force is inoffensive to me and has a chance, while Royal Suspect seems to be a step below to me.
Race 3
$25,000 Claiming for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, 1 1/16 Miles on the Mellon Turf
This is a very competitive field of claiming horses, to the point that I think they’re a little stronger than the $25,000 price tag would suggest. My top four:
4- Team Win
I’m tempted to take a shot here. This filly’s last race was against a smaller and slightly weaker field than this one, and his speed figures are a shade behind some of his competitors. That being said, he closed well last time out in a race at Gulfstream with a 24-second opening quarter mile. Fractions like those usually indicate that the race will be dominated on the front end, but at Gulfstream, it means the race is usually over. She ran well that day, and she’ll probably get a hotter pace to run into here. Luis Saez and Todd Pletcher work very well together, and I think she’s an interesting option.
6- Vip Nation
I’m impressed by this mare’s last start. She’s an early speed type through and through, but in her first start off the layoff, she stumbled badly at the start and had to try to close. She actually did fairly well despite not having a chance, finishing fourth against a professional field. Bruce Levine is dropping her in class here, and the last time she raced at this level, she earned an 85 BSF and won by three lengths. She got a very clear lead that day and won’t get one here, which will seriously hinder her chances. However, Kendrick Carmouche knows how to handle these types, and I see no reason why she can’t fight for a minor piece here.
7- Rosebud’s Hope
She hasn’t raced since April, when she finished second at Tampa Bay against Passing Out. If that name sounds familiar, it’s because that runner went on to finish third in the G3 Beaugay in her next start. Michael Stidham has been fairly selective in bringing horses to Saratoga, but he’s thought highly of her in the oast, even if he’s been willing to lose her in optional claiming events in recent starts. She’s the speed of the speed here, but I think she may have a little trouble finding the rail with two other speedsters to her inside. She’s certainly qualified here, but I’d rather go with others.
2- Foxtail
I really hope mare doesn’t win, because she’s the most vulnerable favorite I’ve seen in a very long time. In her first race off the layoff, she had absolutely no excuse for hanging in the stretch and finishing fourth despite a perfect trip. Hanging can sometimes be forgiven, but not in her case. She found herself in between leaders and late runners in the stretch, and she didn’t move past the early speed until the closers had already passed. Combine that with a 1-for-15 turf stat, and I’m already concerned. Danny Gargan liked what he saw when he purchased her for $40,000. However, after working with her, he’s decided to drop her to the $25,000 level. Gargan made a similar move with a runner named Mojovation last week, and that horse finished third despite towering over that field. On top of that, she’s raced on turf 15 times and dirt twice, and yet, she somehow has more victories on dirt. Irad Ortiz is a great addition and Gargan is excellent off the first claim and second off the layoff. However, I’d be very disappointed if she won, because she makes no sense at 9-5 on paper.
Order: 4 6 7 2
I’m taking a shot with Team Win here, a runner that I think stands a very good chance of improving in this start. Vip Nation and Rosebud’s Hope should fight for the early lead, which I believe will compromise both of their chances. Foxtail seems very weak to me, and I’d never take her at 9-5.
Race 4
$25,000 Claiming for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
This race is more deserving of the $25,000 claiming level. There aren’t many stunning runners here, but they’re all professionals and should have some top performances ready. My top four;
7- Enough Love
This selection is really a process of elimination, but this filly has her merit. In her first start off the layoff, she ran well but finished third behind fellow runner Rousey. I think it was a good freshener for a runner that hadn’t run since March, and Robert Falcone has been bringing fairly live horses to Saratoga. Luis Saez returns, and I think his mount will get a very favorable pace scenario in her second start off the break.
2- Our Lady of Loreto
My issues with this filly aren’t all that complicated. She’s found herself getting very easy leads in her two most recent starts, and it’s not as likely that she’ll be clear in this race. She’ll get the rail and is entering her second start off the layoff, but I’m not sure if this is an advantageous spot.
5- Rousey
I’m not wowed by this filly, but she’s competitive on speed figures and will get a pace to run into. Her only career victory was by a nose, and she’s run several times in a manner that suggests she’s not all that interested in winning. Her best start this year actually came last time out on the turf, though she’s run well in two dirt starts at roughly this level, two second place finishes. Eric Cancel could very well find a perfect trip and guide her home to win. However, I can’t trust her for the top spot.
3- Charlotte Webley (SCRATCHED)
Irad Ortiz’s presence doesn’t carry too much weight here, as he’s been riding this filly consistently and doesn’t have another mount in the race. This filly won her last start in a weak maiden field with a clear lead up front. It’s unlikely she’ll get a clear lead here, the field’s tougher and she probably won’t get the rail. She’s on to fade here.
Order: 7 2 5 3 (Note: The 3, Charlotte Webley, is scratched.)
Enough Love and Rousey should benefit from the setup in this race, and I prefer Enough Love if I have to choose between them. Our Lady of Loreto and Charlotte Webley may give one another trouble on the front end, so I’m taking a chance against them.
Race 5
$40,000 Allowance Optional Claiming for NY-Bred Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 1/16 Miles on the Inner Turf
One of my favorites is in this race, but beyond that, it’s a very competitive field full of statebred talent. It’s the type of race I can sometimes struggle a little with, if only because it’s so wide open:
5- Rinaldi
This gelding seemed to love Saratoga as a three-year-old, and even finished fourth in the G3 Saranac behind Global Access, Good Governance and Seismic Wave. In his first start off the layoff at Belmont, he broke awkwardly from the gate and lost all chance but still finished second ahead of fellow runner Opt. I’m very fond of this Jimmy Bond trainee and have been for awhile now. He’s a very easy top selection.
2- Opt
In his first start off the layoff against fellow runner Rinaldi, this gelding closed very quickly but came up short at the wire to finish third. It was an encouraging performance in a paceless race, but what’s concerning in this race is that there’s also no guarantee of much speed up front. However, this horse appreciates this distance and has done very well in past starts at Saratoga. Robert Ribaudo isn’t the type of trainer that wins up here, but then again, he’s not the type that usually recruits Javier Castellano either.
8- Graded on a Curve
Chad Brown’s gelding here won for fun in his last start and tales the natural step up in class at the condition. I usually like when runners have a little experience at a certain allowance level, especially with a horse like this that prefers to take a few starts. However, Irad Ortiz sticks around for the best turf trainer in the country, and I’m not going to be the one to count him out.
10- Ghost Giant
In his first start off the layoff, this gelding came up a little flat when finishing fifth behind fellow runners Rinaldi and Opt. However, he still ran fairly well, and he hasn’t performed too well in the past off similar layoffs. Jeremiah Englehart is giving him another shot here, and while the outside post is a knock against him, he’s a runner that could certainly improve here at a price.
Order: 5 2 8 10
I really like Rinaldi as a runner, and I believe he’ll take to Saratoga as he did last year and handle this field in his second start of 2020. From there, Opt and Graded on a Curve are both very impressive runners that I can’t count out, as they also have strong chances of improving. Ghost Giant is another such horse at a price, which may be beneficial to have in a very tough race.
Race 6
$40,000 Maiden Claiming for Fillies and Mare Three Years Old and Upward, 1 1/16 on the Mellon Turf
This is a race full of some lightly raced older horses, which is always strange to handicap. They don’t improve as dramatically as their two-year-old and younger three-year-old counterparts between starts, but they do tend to find their footing in a similar, more gradual way. My top four:
7- Checksandbalances (Ire)
She came up a little flat in her career debut for Chad Brown, but Irad Ortiz didn’t seem to be pressuring her too hard in the stretch, indicating that she may have just needed a race. She still ran fairly well that day and gets a little class relief here as well. Brown is brilliant with maidens making their second start, I don’t have a reason to believe she won’t handle the extra sixteenth.
5- More Mango
She took a step forward off the layoff for Jonathan Thomas in her second start, but Michael Maker has taken over for $40,000. She was simply outrun by Ocean Fire last time out, and she seemed interested but was simply overwhelmed. Jose Ortiz jumps aboard for Maker and she’ll get blinkers for the first time here. I’m not sure whether an equipment change will help, but on paper, she’s qualified to win here.
4- Spring to Summer
Christophe Clement doesn’t often debut horses at the maiden claiming level, but he succeeds often enough when he does. This horse has been very slow in the morning and won’t get Lasix, but she does have a 368 Tomlinson for the distance. I’m not sure if this is an attempt to win, but I’d rather mention her than leave her out of consideration.
11- Kitten’s Romance
Wesley Ward is very good at preparing horses for their first start, which is why it wasn’t very encouraging to see this runner finish third by five lengths last time out. He’s not nearly as effective second time around, and while Javier Castellano is always a nice addition, I’m not sure it that’s enough to support this filly in the winner’s circle.
Order: 7 5 4 11
Checksandbalances strikes me as the most qualified runner in this race, although there are other contenders to like here. More Mango is another solid horse with a little more experience, and should do well with new trainer Michael Maker. Meanwhile, Spring to Summer and Kitten’s Romance have a few issues, but they aren’t insurmountable problems.
Race 7
$50,000 Starter Allowance for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Six and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt
This race really comes down to two runners, which doesn’t make it such an appetizing race for bettors. My top four:
5- My Man Flintstone
Of the two key contenders, I prefer this shipper from Ken McPeek’s barn. Since the layoff, this colt’s had an interesting three-race return. He was in way over his head back in May against Art Collector and Wrecking Crew, and then he had a completely hopeless start on turf in which he was pulled up. His most recent start was much better, however, as he was outdueled by talented runner Edgemont Road but held well for second. This track seems a little friendly to early speed lately, which will help him here, and McPeek hasn’t brought a single horse up here yet this meet.
8- Mister Bobby
This is the other main contender in here, and while he’s certainly qualified on speed figures, there is a pretty reasonable observation to make: he’s never actually won a race. His maiden victory came via disqualification, and he’s lost several close races since then. He’s been running well at this level, and he returned off the layoff with a solid performance in which he was much better than fellow runner Big Boy Mo. I wouldn’t be surprised, but he’s definitely not alone here.
7- Big Boy Mo
This ridgling was clearly inferior to Mister Bobby last time out, but he was far from disgraced in his own right. Patrick Quick isn’t a trainer that wins often up here and Reylu Gutierrez is still making his way up the ranks, but there’s a chance that this horse does some running here.
3- Fed Funds
This gelding had a perfect trip when breaking his maiden last time out, and he still didn’t earn a speed figure that would beat the main contenders in this race. That being said, Horacio DePaz has been excellent at taking minor prizes at this meet, and this horse can take another step forward in his second start off the layoff.
Order: 5 8 7 3
In a two-horse race, I’m taking My Man Flintstone over Mister Bobby, as I believe his running style and sheer ability give him an advantage. From there, it’s a fight for third, and I’m taking Big Boy Mo over Fed Funds because I of his experience against winners.
Race 8
$40,000 Allowance Optional Claiming for NY-Bred Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, 1 1/16 Miles on the Inner Turf
This is a very tricky race with many runners making a case for the top spot on paper. These can be tough, but that’s why the often pay well. My top four:
3- Short Pour
This filly took a big step forward off the layoff last time out, establishing a clear early lead and holding on to second with an 80 BSF. Usually, I’d discount such a performance, but I don’t see a reason why he can’t get a similar trip this time around. Luis Saez stays on for Mark Hennig, and while she’s definitely lead-dependent, I think it’s worth the risk here.
8- Barrel of Destiny
This mare has been perfect lately, winning three straight races and tearing through competition and Gulfstream and then at Belmont. He takes another step up here as a result, and I wonder when he’s going to hit the wall. His speed figures are still competitive here and Michael Maker is hot. However, he hasn’t taken too well to Saratoga in the past and Luis Saez left to ride fellow runner Short Pour. Still, he’s a contender here based on his recent form.
2- Blue Atlas
Coming off a long layoff, this mare ran very well to win in open company at the $25,000 claiming level. She moved into statebred competition here for Horacio DePaz, who works very well with Jose Ortiz. She’s winless at Saratoga and at the distance, but that last start was a very solid starting point for a runner that’s better now than she’s ever been.
1- Pecatonica
She sure surprised me last time, as I was very confident in Astoria Kitten that day. She ran very well to break the condition at 11-1 odds, but unfortunately, that means she’ll have to step up in class. Jose Ortiz has left to ride Blue Atlas, but unlike that horse, this filly is two-for-two at Saratoga and three-for-five at the distance. She’s an outsider, but she’s not impossible.
Order: 3 8 2 1
I think Short Pour will manage to control things on the front end, and should work out a good trip in any case. That makes her tough to deny in her second start off the layoff. Meanwhile, Barrel of Destiny, Blue Atlas, and Pecatonica are all stepping up after clearing lower levels of racing, and they fit here based on their previous form.
Race 9
John Morrissey Stakes for NY-Bred Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt
This race features some of the best NY-breds in racing, and should be an interesting race run over the Saratoga dirt during a time of several speed-friendly competitions. My top four:
4- Amundson
This gelding is most dangerous when alone on the lead, and that’s the exact scenario that may play out here. He’s the lone speed in this very talented field, and he’s run well enough on several occasions to win here. Jose Ortiz and Horacio DePaz work very well together, and although there is the possible issue that some rogue tries to go with him, he’s put away that type in the past and succeeded all the same. He’ll be tough here.
1- Pat On the Back
Since winning the G2 Kelso last year, this horse has struggled to regressed in several starts. His first race off the layoff was a step slow as well, and while it was a run that will likely inflate his odds here, I think he has a chance of bouncing back here. Jeremiah Englehart has not yet lost faith in him, and while seven furlongs is certainly not his forte, I think his stalking style will come in handy here.
6- Funny Guy
He was stellar in his last race, closing with a perfect rail trip to win the Commentator with a 101 BSF. It was a great return race off a very long layoff, but there are several reasons to go against him here. That truly was the best possible trip he could have asked for, and he even got a pace scenario that benefited his late running style. There is no such pace scenario in the cards this time around, and there’s also no guarantee he can sneak down on the rail like that again. He’s taken to Saratoga in the past, but the shorter distance may also be an issue. He’s a contender that I feel alright going against.
5- Bankit
A lot of the same issues that came up with Funny Guy apply to this runner. He ran very well in the Commentator last time out with a closing trip that doesn’t seem feasible this time around. Unlike Funny Guy though, this horse has no versatility to speak of, which means that any attempt to run near the pace will be very difficult for him. Asmussen and Santana have a solid runner here, but he may be compromised.
Order: 4 1 6 5
Amundson should manage to take advantage of a paceless race to wire a field of very tough runners compromised by a speed favoring track. Pat On the Back hasn’t been himself lately, but a stalking trip in this one could help him get back to some of his previous form. Funny Guy and Bankit are both dead closers that are immensely talented, but may not be best suited to this race.
Race 10
$40,000 Maiden Claiming for NY-Bred Three-Years-Old and Upward, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf
3- Boom Boom Kaboom
This colt’s last race was a serious step forward as he ran fifth in what’s quickly becoming a live race based on what other runners have done next time out. George Weaver has been decent at Saratoga thus far, and Manny Franco is sticking around to see this one out in his Saratoga debut.
7- Disciplinarian
This gelding ran very well last time out to finish third in his third turf start ever. It’s somewhat concerning that David Donk has handled this horse uncertainly when it comes to surface and distance, but the addition of Jose Ortiz here means that he may have figured it out.
10- Fluent in Sarcasm
Michael Maker has been training this horse well since acquiring him, and felt confident enough to enter him in a maiden special weight last time out. Maker’s been red hot at Saratoga lately, and Irad Ortiz is a major jockey upgrade. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he managed to find the winner’s circle with this one.
4- Tempesta
James Lawrence hasn’t had a great start at the meet, but he has a reasonable runner here. He ran well while dueling in his last start to finish third at this level, and Jose Lezcano is sticking around to see this one play out. I’m vaguely curious as well, but I’m not sure about his chances as compared to others in the race.
Order: 3 7 10 4