This is a very good day of racing at Saratoga. There’s nothing too special, but the quality overall is excellent, which is really what sets this track apart from the rest of the country. It’s even more exciting to consider that we’re only getting started.
Race 1
The A.P. Smithwick Memorial Steeplechase (G1) for Four-Year-Olds and Upward, 2 and 1/16 Miles over Hurdles
I’m kind of curious to see if Snap Decision could have competed in this race after his impressive victory yesterday. However, even without him, this is a very good race featuring several extremely talented hurdlers. Saratoga gives us the the best of everything, even things we don’t ask for. My top four:
5- Moscato (GB)
The nine-year-old did not appear to lose a step in his 2020 debut, winning a G3 stakes by 11 lengths. He’s finished in the money in 13 out of 15 hurdling starts for Jack Fisher, and while he’s never won a G1 before, I believe that has a fair chance of changing today.
3- Optimus Prime (Fr)
He will likely go off as the favorite, and for good reason. Since coming to the U.S. in August 2018, he’s only raced five times. However, he’s won four of those starts by a combined margin of 31 lengths, including two G2 stakes and a G1. The only reason I’m going against him is because he hasn’t raced since last July, and while that hasn’t stopped him from winning in the past, I think he has a worthy adversary this time around with more recent form. Still, I wouldn’t be surprised if this French runner with a strangely down-to-Earth name won yet again.
2- Pravalaguna (Fr)
In her second race in North America, this mare will test her ability against the boys, something she did many times overseas and found success doing. Her only start over here was a victory in an ungraded stakes, but she was very impressive in victory that day and may be able to fight for a minor prize here.
6- Surprising Soul
At some point last year, he would have been a serious contender in this race, having already defeated several runners in this race, including my top selection Moscato. However, in his last two starts, run in October 2019 and June 2020, he’s appeared to have taken a significant step back in form, losing badly in races he should have been able to manage. There’s always a chance that he bounces back here against some of his old rivals, but it’s difficult to predict that after a 42-length defeat in his start last month.
Order: 5 3 2 6
Moscato and Optimus Prime are clearly the top two contenders here, and I’m taking a small chance and supporting the former for the top spot. Pravalaguna and Surprising Soul are both capable runners that wouldn’t surprise me, though I suspect they’re a step below the top two.
Race 2
$14,000 Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
This race is a little frustrating, as all the main contenders have extremely concerning issues. However, a handicapper could see that as a reason to search for value, which makes it an interesting endeavor in one regard. My (somewhat creative) top four:
4- Invest (SCRATCHED)
He actually took a step up in class by moving into statebred competition last time out, and he appeared a little overwhelmed there. This is a much more appropriate spot, and A C Avila may have a live horse here. He’s a tad slow in his last few starts with 70 BSFs, but Joel Rosario is a huge pickup in a race like this for a smalltime trainer. In addition, his last workout was stakes quality, having run four furlongs in 46 and four fifths seconds. I originally listed this runner fourth in my analysis, but in a race where I dislike all the options, I’ve changed my mind. This runner has some upside in a race full of concerning runners.
6- Thomas Shelby
For the record, I don’t like this horse. Not even a little. I have no evidence that he can run on dirt, or that this drop in class is an attempt to win rather than an attempt to sell. I am a fan, however, of Wesley Ward and Irad Ortiz. While other runners in this race are losing their usual riders and taking suspicious drops, Ward switches surfaces with this gelding and recruits Irad Ortiz to ride. Again, it really has nothing to do with the horse, but he’s the only contender that I believe is making a genuine attempt to win.
3- Wonder In
Rob Atras is excellent off the claim, and this horse did perform very well in his last start down in Gulfstream. However, Atras is not maintaining the services of Javier Castellano, which is the first concern. Manny Franco is a capable jockey, but he’s not Atras’ go-to guy to win at Saratoga. The second issue is the layoff, which Atras seems to struggle with. He has a chance and is appropriately placed, but there’s ample reason to go against him.
5- Carthon
I would understand if Reylu Gutierrez was riding this six-year-old at Aqueduct for Rudy Rodriguez, but for him to return to ride the horse in Saratoga seems like a really uninspiring move. In addition to that, he hasn’t won a race since December 2018, despite having ridden well many times since. It doesn’t help that Rodriguez bought this horse for $50,000 and is now selling him for $14,000 off a layoff.
Order: 4 6 3 5 (Note: The 4, Invest, is scratched.)
I’m taking a shot with Invest, and I wouldn’t reach like this unless I was really wary of the top contenders. I have a little faith in Thomas Shelby, but a successful dirt start really shouldn’t be that much to ask when betting a horse to win. Wonder In is actually a pretty good runner in an appropriate spot, but Atras may not have him ready just yet. Carthon always runs well but doesn’t win, and this drop in class is concerning for an older horse.
Race 3
$72,000 Maiden Special Weight for Two-Year-Old Fillies, 1 1/16 Miles on the Mellon Turf
I have no idea what’s going on here. I’d say that any of the horses in this race can win, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all. Let’s be confused together:
3- Mo Normal
Christophe Clement is excellent with first time starters, and Irad Ortiz doesn’t ride for the turf trainer as often Rosario, but that could be a good sign. The filly has a 396 Tomlinson for the distance.
7- Lost Lake
I like Graham Motion, who has a 27% strike rate when switching surfaces, and I like Jose Ortiz. I like Motion and Ortiz together. The filly was very bad in her first start in the dirt at Monmouth, but she’s the only one with experience and she wouldn’t be at Saratoga if that was the best she could do.
6- Plum Ali
This is Clement’s other first time starter in the race, and he’s recruited Joel Rosario, his most successful Saratoga jockey, to ride. The filly’s lightly worked in the morning and has a 349 Tomlinson for the distance.
4- Stunning Princess
Danny Gargan doesn’t work too well with first time starters, but he does work incredibly well with Manny Franco. The filly has been training very well lately and has a 349 Tomlinson for the distance.
Order: 3 7 6 4
Mo Normal seems like the better prepared of Clement’s two first time starters. From there, it was a matter of picking Motion’s second time starter for second, because I like him and his sneakier runners. This race may bust up a lot of multi-race bets.
Race 4
New York Stallion Series for NY-Bred Three-Year-Old Fillies, 1 1/16 Miles on the Inner Turf
These races are always a little weird, because the horses being put into stakes competition wouldn’t be good enough to win a stakes anywhere else in the country. In addition, it’s a weak field with very few proven runners. I make my best attempt below:
1- Fresco
For whatever reason, I like maidens in these types of races. It demonstrates confidence in the horse, and based on his speed figures, Christophe Clement has every reason to be. She ran very well in her last start but lost in a photo to Silky Blue and returns to a distance she’s done well at in the past for this race. Clement is red hot to begin the Saratoga meet, and this filly may just be able to break her maiden in statebred stakes competition.
2- Dixie Cannon
She’s the only filly in the race with a win at this distance, when she easily handled a weak field at Laurel. She ships here for Kelly Rubley, who in turn recruits Jose Ortiz to ride, and was in way over her head in her first start off the layoff and finds a much more suitable spot here. She has a fair chance for a foreign trainer that’s clearly confident in her ability.
3- Officer Hutchy (SCRATCHED)
This is a weird one, so bear with me. She may not even be in this race, as Linda Rice double-booked a few of her horses in the early weeks of this meet. In a turf sprint last week, this horse was terrible. For some reason, however, Rice is incredible with all of the statistics necessary to make this move. She’s 37% successful when bringing horses back in a week, 27% when stretching out to to a route, and 55% (!) when the route is preceded by two sprints. Jose Lezcano stays aboard, and if this filly runs at this new distance on a fairly new surface, she’s almost too bizarre for bettors to ignore on first glance.
5- Holmdel Park
She definitely prefers turf, but she still hasn’t won over the surface for James Ryerson. In addition, this is a new distance for her, one she’s completely untested over. If Ryerson wasn’t the trainer, she might be worth the risk, but as is, she likely won’t compete for much more than a minor prize.
Order: 1 2 3 5 (Note: The 3, Officer Hutchy is scratched.)
Easy as 1 2 3… 5. I think Fresco is here for a reason despite only being a maiden. Clement’s recent success makes me more confident as well. Dixie Cannon is the only horse with a win at the distance, which obviously gives her an edge. Meanwhile, Officer Hutchy is a horse with little proven ability and extremely successful connections, which makes her difficult to evaluate. Holmdel Park isn’t showing me enough, but there weren’t many horses in the race.
Race 5
$72,000 Maiden Special Weight for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
This is a really fun maiden race. Experienced runners are competing against hopeful first time starters, and almost every runner has serious promise going forward. It was a very enjoyable race to handicap. My top four:
7- Instinctive Rhythm
Javier Castellano is not riding his usual mount for Chad Brown in this race. Instead, he’s riding a $350,000 purchase for George Weaver. That’s a huge development that may speak to the talent of the horse. Weaver is excellent with first time starters and while he’s 0-for-5 with Castellano at Saratoga, they win at a 38% clip elsewhere. The horse was recently gelded, but has been training very well and has a 390 Tomlinson for the distance.
6- Irish Front
If not for Weaver’s firster, I’d be all over this colt trained by Todd Pletcher. In his only start at two, he took the lead in a very live race and held well to finish fourth. He hasn’t raced since, but Irad Ortiz is taking the mount for a trainer that is excellent off of long layoffs. Waterford Stables is two-for-two at this meet as well, and it’s always great to see that the stable is successful as well. It’s very likely that this horse has improved from two to three, and based on his competition at two, bettors can be hopeful about his ability. He’s a serious contender. For the right price, he may end up being my top selection.
4- Ahead of Plan
Castellano is gone, but Chad Brown can never be counted out entirely. This gelding’s best race actually came in his two-year-old season, when he finished second with an unbelievable 88 BSF. He’s run solidly since, though I would consider his last start on turf to be misguided. He hasn’t raced since August 2019, and it’s not always great to see such a lightly raced horse at four. As I said before, it’s always tough to toss Chad Brown, and this horse has a lot of merit, but there are simply more compelling options out there.
2- O’Trouble
I really liked this colt last time out and he disappointed a little in a third place finish. However, he may have just needed that start off the layoff, and it’s encouraging to see John Velasquez stick around for Anthony Dutrow. He’ll have to improve to contend here, but that’s a very real possibility.
Order: 7 6 4 2
I’m going with Weaver’s first time starter, a runner I believe will respond on first asking. Castellano could have ridden Ahead of Plan for Chad Brown, but chose not to, and I’m inclined to believe he’s looking for a mount bound for graded stakes competition. Irish Front is owned by Waterford Stables, who are two-for-two at this meet so far. I really like this runner as well, and believe that Pletcher will have him ready. Those two runners make up my crystal clear exacta bet, and it will come down to the tote board to decide my win bet. Ahead of Plan and O’Trouble are also very promising in their own right though, and are also running for the top spot. This should be a great race.
Race 6
$74,000 Allowance for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, 1 Mile on the Inner Turf
I feel comfortable with my top selection in this race, as I’ve bet on her many times before. Outside of that, this race is fairly pedestrian. My top four:
5- Bareeqa
I bet this mare all the time, and I’ve been rewarded on several occasions. Danny Gargan always places her in very appropriate races, and she almost always gives a good account of herself. More importantly, she wins often, which is obviously favorable. She gets an excuse in that last race on a speed-friendly track, and I’m pretty confident that she’ll have a better go of it this time around. She likes Saratoga and the distance, and Irad Ortiz takes the reins.
1- Balon Rose
While Bareeqa often rewards bettors, this filly has spent a significant portion of her career burning money. As a Chad Brown trainee, she’s been favored five times in seven starts, and yet, she only has a maiden win to show for it. She had a rough trip in her last start and can be excused for an uncharacteristically poor performance, but even still, I think she’ll be overbet in a race with some very capable runners. I’ll take a shot against her.
8- Simplicity (Fr)
I usually like these European runners coming to the U.S., but this filly concerns me a little. Christophe Clement is a very talented guy but doesn’t not excel when bringing horses overseas. In addition, she’s winless at this distance, and only has one win in 10 total starts. Since breaking her maiden, though, she has been in over her head. I’m not sure if this is the appropriate spot, but Clement and Rosario seem to think so, which gives me some confidence placing her third.
9- Kitten by the Sea
Her start back in February is likely her best possible effort, as she won on a speed favoring track with an uncontested lead. Pletcher rarely claims horses, but has found one that fits at higher levels based on that third start. I like others better in here, but she could very well compete here off the layoff.
Order: 5 1 8 9
Bareeqa is a star in my book, and I have no reason to go against her here. I’m also very lucky to have what I believe is a vulnerable Chad Brown runner to go against. This should give my top selection a little more value, although Balon Rose isn’t one to be counted out entirely. Simplicity and Kitten by the Sea are more unsure commodities, but they stand a chance of competing here.
Race 7
$40,000 Allowance Optional Claiming for NY-Bred Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, Six and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt
This race is practically impossible, even after a ton of scratches. This is the type of race where solid horses go off at inexplicably long odds because bettors are looking at too many things at once. My top four attempts to compensate for that a little:
10- Bertranda
The pace up front may hurt her chances, but this mare has proven in the past that she can handle pressure well. Mertkan Kantarmaci and Irad Ortiz have been a lethal combination as of late, and he’s the first top jockey this runner has gotten in awhile. Her recent workout indicates that she’s in condition, and I believe she’ll manage well here.
12- Bustin to Please
This filly went from Finger Lakes to Laurel to Aqueduct to Belmont, and she won wherever she went. In 11 lifetime starts, she’s won six times, which is an incredible feat for a horse at this lowly level of racing. She’s the type of horse I feel good betting on, even if she loses, because I know I’m betting on a horse that wants to run. Manny Franco had several options in this race but chose to stay on this M/L 15-1 shot that defeated fellow runner Bertranda in her last start. She got a perfect trip that day, but with a lot of pace in this one, there’s no reason she can’t get one just like it. She may have taken a step back in training recently, but that’s not nearly enough reason to justify such high odds.
4- Awillaway
I honestly don’t know if this filly is good enough to win here, but I can’t figure out why she’s 30-1 on the morning line either. If a handicapper tossed the last turf start, they would see that she fits better than her odds would indicate, and Robert Klesaris wouldn’t have her here if he thought she was hopeless. Luis Cardenas has to eat too. I’m vaguely curious.
3- Fierce Lady
She’s a newcomer to Rudy Rodriguez’s barn and is trying older horses for the first time. My problem with her is that she never even really handled fillies her own age, having lost to fellow runner Big Q earlier this year. Joel Rosario’s presence is encouraging, but this will be a stout test for a runner that may be overbet.
Order: 10 12 4 3
Bertranda is a sensible option in here, while I think that Bustin to Please is a little undervalued on the morning line. They form a solid exacta for me, while Awillaway is a long shot that I simply couldn’t get away from. Fierce Lady struggled against horses her age, which makes me question her chances against older.
Race 8
$72,000 Maiden Special Weight for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf
This is a very competitive field of maidens, and several have a serious chance of winning. There’s also a strong possibility of improvement from many of them, which makes it a little tricky to handicap. My top four:
3- Union Colonel
At Gulfstream earlier this year, this colt ran very well on the turf to finish second in a photo behind a horse that was alone on the lead. It was an encouraging start to his three-year-old season, but he hasn’t raced on the turf since. Mark Casse enters him here off a five-month layoff, an angle he wins with moderately. Tyler Gaffalione returns to the ride, and if this runner has improved at all in his time off, I think he has a fair chance here.
4- French Reef (Ire)
This Chad Brown trainee made his debut late in his three-year-old season, and was leading in the stretch before fading to finish sixth. He hasn’t raced since, but Chad Brown’s clearly been saving him for the Saratoga meet. He’s the only four-year-old in the race, which is another big advnatage, and Javier Castellano returns to ride. He’ll be tough to beat here, it’s unlikely he’ll get the same trip he got last November.
9- Its a Wrap
This gelding’s only start on the turf came in a race heavily favoring closers, of which he was one. Therefore, I’m willing to conclude that the speed figure he earned that day was near his best possible, in which case he would not have managed to defeat other runners in this race. Michelle Nevin is excellent with horses making their second start off of layoffs and Manny Franco sticks around. There’s a very good chance this runner improves and contends with this field.
1- Modesto
Wesley Ward is excellent with first time starters and recruits Irad Ortiz to ride. He’s been training very well in the morning and has a 359 Tomlinson for the distance.
Order: 3 4 9 1
Union Colonel raced very well on the Gulfstream turf earlier this year, and I believe he’ll show up again with a similar performance. French Reef is also coming off a layoff, and Chad Brown should have him ready to run as he almost always does. Its a Wrap has the advantage of a recent start, something he can build off of for Michelle Nevin. Modesto is a first time starter for Wesley Ward, which warrants inclusion on its own.
Race 9
$80,000 Allowance Optional Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Four Races, Six and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt
This is a compact field, but the quality of its runners is very high. Many of these horses have found success in stakes competition and are looking for an easier start before they rejoin those stout ranks. My top four:
4- Honest Mischief
This colt has been solid for his entire career, and there’s no reason that should stop now. He’s run with some of the best sprinters out there and has held his own for Chad Brown. He should stalk the pace up front in this race and launch a bid on the turn. Javier Castellano knows how to handle him, and he proved to like Saratoga when he ran third in the G2 Amsterdam.
1- Wendell Fong
He’s been running in stakes competition for a long time now, and is finally stepping back into allowance competition. He switches barns from Jeremiah Englehart to Robertino Diodoro, which is a slight upgrade in my opinion but a much more important upgrade for other people. He’s a very professional runner that hasn’t had much opportunity to win lately. He’ll finally be getting a fair chance today against a competitive but more reasonable field.
3- Admiral Lynch
This colt will likely go to the lead early, and he’ll probably get the rail if a duel commences. He’s had a little trouble finding the winner’s circle in reasonable spots recently, which is a slight problem hurting his chances. In addition, he’ll be getting the rail but he probably won’t be alone up front either. Michael Maker is a little cold at this meet, but there’s not reason why his horse here can’t run for a minor prize.
6- Captain Scotty
This horse’s latest race on turf was a little rough. I wouldn’t be too concerned with that as he switches back to dirt here, but he’s performed well on the turf in the past. This makes me wonder what condition he’s in. He’ll try to get the lead here, and he’ll likely be able to fight for it, but he’ll have to duel on the outside of Admiral Lynch. This may be a little tough for him.
Order: 4 1 3 6
Honest Mischief is consistently excellent regardless of the competition he’s running against, and I believe he has the best chance of winning here. Wendell Fong should be too far behind, as he’s also an excellent runner with a fair chance here. Admiral Lynch and Captain Scotty will likely duel up front, and I wish I knew more about the military and its ranks, because there’s a joke there somewhere.
Race 10
$16,000 Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, Six and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt
This is a race that tends to leave people scratching their heads as they head out to the parking lot at the end of the day. Now everyone’s on their couch, so at least their confusion is confined to their home. My top four:
6- Continuum
He made his first start of the year last month and didn’t show much improvement from three to four. However, super couple Steve Asmussen and Ricardo Santana are getting back together for this mount, and Asmussen is very good with horses making their second start off layoffs. He’s getting class relief here despite moving to Saratoga, and even a small improvement would get him a victory in this reasonable field.
11- Financialstability
Perhaps some of Chad Brown’s lesser runners take too much money, but I really dislike seeing a horse burn this much money. He’s run at short odds for his entire career, but only has one win in seven total starts. That’s not at all encouraging as he takes a significant class drop here. His speed figures fit well here and he could still run well, but it’s fairly clear that Brown is willing to part with him for $16,000 at this point.
4- Mandatory Payout
He almost never wins, but I like this colt’s last race. He was the only horse to successfully close on a track that was extremely favorable for early speed, which indicates that he’s even better on a fair track. Jose Ortiz is obviously gone and again, this horse can’t seem to find the winner’s circle, but he may be very valuable underneath.
3- Deputy Flag
I don’t have anything too solid to hold against this horse, but for some reason, I just don’t like him. Brad Cox is a little cold at this meet, but he’s obviously trying to win here with Irad Ortiz in the saddle. He’s earned very good figures at a higher claiming level at Aqueduct, and this is a sensible drop. My issue may just lie in the fact that Cox has lost a little faith in him. In his freshener on the turf at Belmont, he was running for $40,000, but that went extremely poorly. Now, he has a $16,000 tag on him, and it simply feels that others are headed in a better direction than this one.
Order: 6 11 4 3
It seems as though Steve Asmussen has a plan for Continuum, which is good enough for me in a race with a lot of runners without a clear purpose. I think Chad Brown is trying to get rid of Financialstability, though I wouldn’t be too surprised if he ran well anyway. Mandatory Payout is an interesting long shot that I wouldn’t support for the top spot. Deputy Flag, meanwhile, is a reasonable option that I just don’t really care for.