It turns out that returning to Saratoga after last weekend’s deflating events at Monmouth was well worth it. The decision has lifted my spirits considerably, and it would be foolish of me not to return with analysis for another day at the Spa. Unfortunately, my Wednesday evenings are not as free as my Tuesdays this summer, so I regret to inform readers that the written portion of Paddy’s Picks will be delayed or omitted in sections today.
The picks are available for each race and are listed below, but I simply didn’t have time to write out my explanations. I’ll try to do so today, so make sure to come back throughout the day for updates, but I wanted to get selections out to readers promptly since they were available. Let’s take a look at the card:
UPDATE: The first nine races have been updated to include analysis. More to come!
Race 1
A.P. Smithwick Memorial Handicap (G1) for Four-Year-Olds and Upwards, 2 1/16 Miles over Hurdles
5- Galway Kid (Ire)
6- Gibralfaro (Ire)
3- Baltimore Bucko (GB)
4- Redicean (GB)
It seems like a G3 stakes on May 29 is the most effective prep race for this race, which gives a pair a distinct advantage. Galway Kid and Gibralfaro ended up nearly even on the wire last time out to demonstrate sharp form that most of this field seems to lack. I’ve selected them in the order that they finished that day, but the morning line oddsmaker seems to prefer the runner-up for reasons I’m unfamiliar with. Baltimore Bucko put in a solid effort in his first race of 2021, in which he closed fast and just missed at the wire, but it seemed to be against a weaker field. Redicean has been a talented hurdler for years now, but I’m afraid he may be going to the well a few too many times. He hasn’t won a race since 2019 and will have to fire fresh off an 11-month layoff to win here.
Race 2
$50,000 Maiden Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
6- Pregame (SCRATCHED)
3- Wicked Mad
5- Rudy Rod
7- Recidivist
There are two runners in this race with a significant class edge in my opinion. Pregame has been a turf horse for a few months now, and races taken off the turf should usually be dismissed as lesser dirt races. That being said, this colt’s last dirt start in April, a maiden special weight off the turf at Keeneland, was against Snow House, who went on to finish a close third in the G3 Dwyer behind lights out 3YO First Captain. He fought very well that day for place and earned a solid 77 BSF that suggests he can handle this maiden claiming field. Wicked Mad has also been up against it against maiden competition, as he had absolutely no chance two back against Beau Liam, and even his maiden claiming debut against Brew Crew could be considered an uphill battle. This is a softer spot where he can take a step forward, though I would have liked a slightly sharper performance last time out, even under the circumstances. Rudy Rod is a perplexing runner for trainer… Rudy Rodriguez. Huh, funny. He seemed to be going in the right direction on the dirt when Rodriguez abruptly switched him to the turf, where he’s struggled. Getting back to dirt is the right move, but the distance doesn’t seem right to me anyway. Recidivist has early pace that may prove advantageous, but the speed figures are light and he may have to deal with another speedster to his inside.
Race 3
$12,500 Claiming for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt
4- Gentle Annie
2/2B- Sirenic and Forever Changed (SCRATCHED)
1/1A- Viradia and Violent Trick (SCRATCHED)
3- Mongolian Humor
You know those races where you don’t like any of the options in front of you? Yeah, we’re in that territory here, a rare occurrence at Saratoga. Gentle Annie ran a race last time out that doesn’t seem explicable or repeatable, but it really was impressive by any standard. Closing to chase down loose early speed is always difficult, but to do it at 16-1 without any other closing help is particularly interesting. Again, she’s historically been a disaster for Gary Sciacca, who has somehow already won up here, but maybe (just maybe) the mare has found some form. Sirenic and Forever Changed are one of two obvious entries in this race, but I don’t like either half. Sirenic is taking an absurd drop in class, one that guarantees Linda Rice will lose her, while Forever Changed seems to have taken a significant step back in form recently. The only solace is that they are both sprinters at the very least, which is a requirement the other entry in the race has not met. Viradia and Violent Trick are collectively 0-for-4 at seven furlongs for trainer Wayne Potts, and at 8-5, neither runner has done anything convincing enough to earn a confident bet. Mongolian Humor has actually been very sharp for Randi Persaud lately, but bringing her back within seven days is an obvious ploy by the trainer to wring every bit of form out of her before she regresses. It’s a panic-driven tactic popular among struggling trainers, and it almost always wears a horse down.
Race 4
$35,000 Claiming for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt
1- Dancing Kiki
5- Tenderness
4- Red Venus
7- Stunning Munnings
Dancing Kiki and Tenderness are a fairly obvious top pair to me, as the former has been running fast at higher levels in statebred competition while the latter has simply been rounding out well for this start. That being said, I have to admit that my third selection was the most fun to mull over on paper. After some dirt starts that wouldn’t qualify him for this race at strange tracks like Turf Paradise and Lone Star, trainer Marcus Vitali shipped Venus Red up to Presque Isle in Pennsylvania, where she came alive on the synthetic track with a place finish at 7-1 odds. Vitali always brings a few up to Saratoga, with some success dating back to 2018, and his filly here may be hiding some dirt form in that strong synthetic start at a price. Stunning Munnings, and Courageous Girl for that matter, are contenders that could very easily win this evenly matched contest.
Race 5
$100,000 Maiden Special Weight for Two-Year-Old Fillies, 1 1/16 Miles on the Inner Turf
4- Expand the Map (Ire)
10- Pizza Bianca
1- Fishers
6- Hope Over Fear
In this firster race, Expand the Map seems to have all the makings of a buzz horse. Chad Brown has had an extraordinarily cold start to the meet, but his connection with Klaravich turf juveniles and Irad Ortiz remains strong. She seems like the filly to beat. Christophe Clement, Joel Rosario, and Bobby Flay team up with firster Pizza Bianca, a Kentucky-bred with Australian and Irish connections. Rosario is usually the key to figuring out Clement’s preferred firster when he has two, and this one could have a say on debut. Fishers is the other Chad Brown firster, a popular angle for many, but I think his primary runner will prove a little tough in this case. Hope Over Fear is a cool name, right? Let’s put her fourth.
Race 6
$85,000 Maiden Special Weight for NY-Bred Two-Year-Old Fillies, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf
2- Saratoga Kisses
3- Derrynane
7- Quick Power Nap
6- Enjoy Summer
This may seem strange, but I think I see Rudy Rodriguez hatching a plan here. Saratoga Kisses wasn’t atrocious in her first two dirt starts at Belmont earlier this year, but she was slow and largely ineffective. The move to switch her to the turf is a low-percentage, high-yield decision for Rodriguez, as he strikes with just 7% of his runners switching to turf for an astounding ROI of $4.22. What tells me that this runner can be part of the 7%? Well, the addition of blinkers is always a good sign for a Rodriguez runner, and in general, it suggests that a trainer is still interested in improving the horse’s form. The decision to make the switch early in the Saratoga meet is also telling, as many trainers save their better runners for these high-profile summer months with bigger purses. The biggest factor, however, is the presence of Irad Ortiz, who wins with 30% of his Rodriguez mounts at Saratoga. The likely riding title winner isn’t one to screw around often on hopeless long shots. It all comes down to whether the filly can handle the turf, but there’s plenty of evidence to suggest that the connections are confident. The rest of the race is fairly straightforward, as Derrynane and Quick Power Nap seem like promising first time starters with elite connections and short odds.
Race 7
$16,000 Claiming for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
6- Quantitativbreezin
9- Traffic Lane
10- Chloe Rose
4- Big Tony’s Girl
Quantitativbreezin is a very skeptical top pick on my part, as I’m only choosing her out of a lack of belief in Traffic Lane. She does have a lot going for her though. Trainer Brad Cox is going on a tear early in the Saratoga meet, and while five of her six starts have been on turf, her only dirt start suggests she can handle it. Most of her chief competitors in the race are three-year-olds, the most obvious of which is Rudy Rodriguez’s filly taking a sharp drop in class. In the winter, she was competing in graded stakes competition, which makes it surprisingly hard to place a bet on her in a $16,000 claiming race in July. While my Rodriguez pick in the last race seems to have the faith of her trainer, this filly has clearly lost it. He will almost certainly lose her, and I don’t think that bodes well for her likely performance at short odds. Chloe Rose is a competent runner that can run well from a number of different positions on the track, and she will also drop in class in search of softer competition. Her drop is reasonable, however, and if Traffic Lane doesn’t show up and Quantitativbreezin doesn’t follow the pattern of other Cox runners recently, she could very well find herself in the mix late. Big Tony’s Girl is a vaguely misogynistic name for a long shot with deceptively interesting form. Her last race is much better than it appears on paper, as she had bad racing luck and an impossible pace scenario to overcome, and Vargas and Ryerson are very successful working together elsewhere.
Race 8
$80,000 Optional Claiming for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, 1 3/8 Miles on the Inner Turf
5- Lovely Lucky
2- Cat’s Pajamas
6- Mia Martina
3- Here Comes Jackie
No screwing around here. Lovely Lucky stands head and shoulders above her competition in this race and has competed well in graded stakes competition previously. Any sort of return to form would be enough to win. Cat’s Pajamas and Mia Martina make a formidable pair for Graham Motion, and I expect both classy fillies to fight for a minor prize. Here Comes Jackie lacks the class to compete at this level, but she’s been fast enough lately and should go off as at reasonable odds for Orlando Noda and Joel Rosario.
Race 9
$103,000 Allowance for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, 1 1/8 Miles on the Dirt
5- Portilla
6- Love and Love
3- Ice Princess
1/1A- Stop Shopping Tammy and Played Hard
This is a very tricky race in which I’m taking a bit of a shot. Portilla is a lightly raced three-year-old, which makes her form fairly easy to break down. In her first race, she had everything her way closing into a fast pace to win a photo over fellow runner Played Hard. If that was her only start, I would fade her, but her next start suggests that she may have improved without demonstrating it. In her second start, she had less luck chasing some stubborn early speed runners but still finished well to match her debuting speed figure. Albert Stall is bringing her up to Saratoga and stretching her out in distance, which means that she won’t be closing from far back and may have more left in the stretch. She’s an interesting option against fallible favorites. Love and Love and Ice Princess are both very talented runners with experience and many good performances, but they don’t win all that often. Both have had multiple opportunities to pass runners in the stretch, but their respective losing streaks have continued for months now, and New York horses haven’t had the upper hand upstate this year in any case.
Race 10
$40,000 Maiden Claiming for NY-Bred Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf
2- Orma
4- Social Whirl
12- Stella Mars
7- Dorothy’s the Boss (SCRATCHED)