I think I missed the gleaming white fences most, the ones shrouded under ancient trees in a wide expanse of land that a suburbanite from Long Island could hardly fathom. I like walking around and watching people go about their business. The horses are all beautiful up here, as if touched by magic waters, but the crowd is always humorously mixed. The usual track people are here today, slightly less rowdy out of respect, but there are others too. Smartly dressed men in suits sit alongside budding families alongside ambitious college kids looking for a spot to put their beer pong table, though I feel that they may have trouble on Opening Day. Sam the Bugler just wished me luck and cryptically told me he was “working with tools of ignorance.” I love it all. It might not be a place to make money, but it’s a place to make a living, if that makes sense.
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome back to Paddy’s Picks, and more importantly, welcome back to racing at Saratoga Racecourse. You’ll all have to forgive my romantic ramblings, but after two days with the Moquin family at Finger Lakes Racetrack and nearly two years away from this Mecca of thoroughbred racing, it’s all a little too much for me this morning at the Spa.
Will Paddy’s Picks return to the daily analysis format of yesteryear? Probably not, and never in the format I managed to pull off during the pandemic. That being said, I will be busy this week, with at least three days of Saratoga coverage and a few tricks up my sleeve for the Haskell Invitational at Monmouth. In more than a year writing for this website, I’ve never analyzed a card trackside, but I’m fortunate enough to do so today.
For those of you betting from home this week, I’d recommend starting light, as this place appears no less forgiving than it used to be. If any of my readers happen to be at Saratoga as well, however slim those chances may be, I’ll be near the paddock for most of the day, though I’m admittedly a little prone to wandering up here. Come say hello! Let’s take a look at the card:
Race 1
$12,500 Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt
9- Hammerin Aamer
4- Wagon Boss
6- Flowers For Lisa
5- Charlie’sarchangel
I wouldn’t consider this race to be a consistently profitable one to bet, as the contenders are all evenly matched and the result will likely come down to unforeseen trip dynamics. That being said, Hammerin’ Aamer does hold a slight edge coming off a few solid efforts at Belmont that could have gone his way against marginally better competition. Wagon Boss has been a picture of consistency as of late, and if several competitors run back to poorer performances, he will likely have enough to win. His last race isn’t overwhelmingly appealing to me because of a highly favorable pace scenario, but he did get the victory over Charlie’sarchangel, who benefited from a better trip inside. If Flowers For Lisa can strike the front uncontested, then he will be a very tough runner to catch. But the 82 BSF he earned two starts back came in a situation that doesn’t come around often and his last start back in May is demonstrative of what can happen when he is challenged early.
Race 2
$100,000 Maiden Special Weight for Two-Year-Old Fillies, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Turf
9- Speedometer
4- Microbiome
8- Frosted Oats
7- Zmuda
This isn’t an overwhelmingly inspiring maiden race for fillies here, and once again, the result could very well come down to factors beyond the information given to bettors. Speedometer is the standout in the field coming off a show finish in her first start behind Pretty Birdie, who will run later on in the G3 Schuylerville. This race could actually provide valuable insight for that graded stakes, as Speedometer’s performance will give some sense of the strength of competition P.B. faced last time out. Beyond her, Microbiome could be ready to go first time out for Tom Amoss as well and fits well into second in my view. Frosted Oats is a Bill Mott firster with a fun name and big auction price tag, while Jose Ortiz’s presence on Zmuda could indicate improvement off a lackluster debut for Ken McPeek. Zmuda also ran against Pipeline Gal in her first start, another entrant in the G3 Schuylerville later today. Take notes.
Race 3
$103,000 Allowance for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races
9- St. Joe Louis
7- So Suave
3- Smile Bryan
10- Treason
A lofty purse does little to strengthen the mettle of the field here. What appears at first to be a 12-horse race actually comes down to six runners after rudimentary analysis. Three runners are scheduled to run on dirt while three turf entrants have little to no chance. This gives St. Joe Louis a significant advantage coming off his maiden win for Chad Brown. The competition he faced that day may have been middling in comparison to what others in this field have competed against, but he won decisively that day with a solid speed figure to boot. Without significant pace in the race, his tactical speed should prove valuable, and as an aside, it would make sense for Brown to win his first race in a meet that will likely end up going his way. So Suave is a European shot in the dark for Christophe Clement and Irad Ortiz, which is a better random selection than most. Smile Bryan is a runner that I’ve seen several times now, and while he may be stepping up in class here, he has run comparable races at lower levels and always seems to work out a decent trip. Treason took down an experienced field on debut at Belmont at 25-1 odds, breaking my father’s heart in the process. That being said, Bill Mott has never really rushed his runners through allowance levels like this, which may mean that his three-year-old colt here could use a race.
Race 4
$50,000 Starter Allowance for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, 1 1/16 Miles on the Mellon Turf
Note: The fourth race has been taken off the turf. I wasn’t prepared for this change. Good luck folks.
Race 5
$100,000 Maiden Special Weight for Two-Year-Old Fillies, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt
7- Echo Zulu
3- Lady Scarlet
1- Mommasgottarun (SCRATCHED)
6- Solasta
In a wide open race that I would skip in most cases, I feel like the first time starters are promising. Echo Zulu sold for $300,000 at auction and Steve Asmussen has had some phenomenal two-year-old fillies at Saratoga in recent years. Lady Scarlet is one of the experienced runners in the race and could easily improve off an intriguing debut for Brad Cox down at Churchill. Mommasgottarun is another wild card entrant for Tom Amoss coming off the meet of his life down in Kentucky, while my newfound affection for Finger Lakes Racetrack makes Jeremiah Englehart trainee Solasta a must-add.
Race 6
$35,000 Claiming for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, 1 1/16 Miles on the Inner Turf
2- Alba’s Star
5- Kitten by the Sea
8- Choose Happiness
10- Two Cent Tootsie
This is a fun claiming race in the turf, though I don’t feel all that creative. Kitten by the Sea is probably a deserving favorite based on his form last year, and if she can run back to some of her best ones, she will win by daylight here. Irad Ortiz’s presence suggests that she’s sharp, but I do think she’s beatable. Her last race of 2020 wasn’t her sharpest and she’s facing fresh competitors off an eight-month layoff. I’m going to try to take her down with Alba’s Star, who does one thing and does it well. She probably should have won last time out with an uncontested lead, but Rising Bella and fellow runner Choose Happiness closed fast to catch her. This time around, though, she will likely get another uncontested lead under potentially softer fractions, and it may just be enough in her second start off the layoff.
Race 7
$103,000 Allowance for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, 1 1/8 Miles on the Dirt
1/1A- Arham and Ajaaweed
2- Southern District
8- Dust Devil
3- Business Model
In a race between evenly matched contenders, the entry often has a distinct advantage. In this case, I think Arham is the standout in the Shadwell duo trained by Todd Pletcher. His last start was particularly impressive in my opinion, as he chased Yankee Division loose on the lead and still managed to challenge him at the wire. Ajaaweed is more of a wild card and therefore a valuable entry mate, as bettors get all the upside without nearly as much risk. The choice between Southern District and Business Model is purely a result of my preference for Chad Brown and New York racing over Brendan Walsh and Kentucky racing. Both can win, but I favor the Brown trainee’s performance and strength of competition last time out. Dust Devil is a consistent gamer that could very well be in the mix late, and the move to Bill Mott’s barn is interesting,
Race 8
Quick Call Stakes (G3) for Three-Year-Olds, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Mellon Turf
3- Golden Pal
2- Second of July
1- Kentucky Pharoah
9- Jaxon Traveler
This seems more like a paid workout than a graded stakes race. Golden Pal is coming off an emphatic victory in the BC Juvenile Turf Sprint, while many of these other runners have been struggling in allowance competition. He ran faster at two than any three-year-old here, and it would take significant regression off the layoff for him to begin his 2021 campaign with anything less than a victory. Beyond an obvious top choice, I could be very wrong but believe that Second of July has something left in him after a checkered two-year-old campaign last year. Philip Gleaves continues to enter him in ambitious spots and I’m willing to take a small chance underneath. Kentucky Pharoah is another runner with potentially buried form after an unfortunate spill in his comeback race last time out. Jaxon Traveler has the second best speed figures in the race, but he still hasn’t raced on turf and will likely be overbet.
Race 9
Schuylerville Stakes (G3) for Two-Year-Old Fillies, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
7- Happy Soul (SCRATCHED)
8- Eagle Express
1- Pretty Birdie
3- Pipeline Girl (SCRATCHED)
It’s hard to go against a horse that has won its last two starts by 23 combined lengths, but I really want to. If there were some more convincing challengers to Happy Soul, I would consider her a vulnerable favorite, but many of her chief competitors have won the same way she did in a less convincing fashion. That makes her a fairly obvious top choice, though she may have to show a new dimension to win against other speedy types. Express Eagle is a bit of a long shot, but in juvenile races like this, I like to find horses that have already had to work out trips to win. This Asmussen trainee out in two solid efforts at Lone Star earlier this year and might just have enough to come from off the pace at a price. Pretty Birdie flashed a good deal of speed in her first start and drew the rail position this time around. Her speed figure at Churchill was solid and she could improve in her second start. Pipeline Girl will have to improve far more, but she’s another one that could get a nice trip off the pace if it sets up for her.
Race 10
$85,000 Maiden Special Weight for NY-Bred Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 1/16 Miles on the Inner Turf
8- Clever Fellow
12- Ruse
3- Shinjuku
11- Sandro the Great
Yes, he’s a money eater, but some might say that he’s due. Clever Fellow has been favored in his last three starts, one on dirt and two on turf, and he has fallen short each time. That seems bad, but I don’t believe it’s as disastrous as it seems after breaking it down. On the dirt at Aqueduct, there was either a physical problem of some sort or he ran down to his competition so badly that it cost him 20 points in speed figures. I’m inclined to believe the former. In his two more recent turf races, he has only lost to three horses: Agent Creed is now a solid allowance horse, Ocala Dream won next time out and Bar Fourteen has broken his maiden since. All three would take this field down, and I don’t believe there are any new faces nearly as fierce for Clever Fellow. Still, perhaps boxing bets is a good idea to be safe. Ruse is another qualified runner with a lot of turf form and almost no dirt form, which explains his 10-1 odds last time out when he nearly did enough to defeat talented graduate Cotton. Without many clear turf runners, I think Shinjuku deserves another look after a tough trip in his first start off the layoff. Meanwhile, Sandro the Great is a vaguely interesting long shot with some hidden ability on the turf for new trainer Thomas Bush.